The big Coronavirus thread

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  • imposter2.0
    imposter2.0 Posts: 12,028
    I'm not going to quote his post, but I just wanted to highlight the absurdity of covidiot's bar-owning 'mate', who's just gone out and bought some awnings and space heaters........when literally every other bar owner did this about a year ago..
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,328
    imposter2.0 said:

    I'm not going to quote his post, but I just wanted to highlight the absurdity of covidiot's bar-owning 'mate', who's just gone out and bought some awnings and space heaters........when literally every other bar owner did this about a year ago..

    Cheaper this year though. 😉
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Is it just me that thinks that the case numbers and hospitalisations look distinctly coupled?
    Well, hospitalisations increase as cases increases, but the 'length of the couple' has stretched.
    I understand what they say it shows, but I have eyes.
    Now, going back to the infections vs. hospitalisations plot, if you take 2 week's worth of infections away, you are left with essentially the pre-Omicron data. So anything you think it shows is reading tea leaves.

    Let's disregard the most recent tweet you posted - because the blue line, whatever it is, however clever it is, shows something that Nick Freeman agrees with. This should be an alarm bell for you.

    Can't argue with that

    Remove the recent data and there'll be no Omicron data on the graph.
    Don't be intentionally gormless eh? You know full well that there's a lag between infections and hospitalisations. So although it is tempting, comparing today's infections with today's hospitalisations is misleading. And that is what you are doing.

    And just so you know, I think the doomsday modeling this time around is going to turn out to be wildly innacurate and the peak will be shorter and less bad than last year. However, I am guessing because there's no data yet, just some unreliable extrapolations.
    That graph isn't comparing today's infections with today's hospitalisations
    How much is it offset by and how do you know?

    Additionally, his analysis, based on a few days' data is that % hospitalisations is nearly at an all time low. Which means it has gone up. He also takes no account of why it was at an all time low. That was because the delta wave over the summer has been in lower age groups. That is not predicted to be the case for Omicron because of family mixing and sheer numbers.

    There's no way you can spin that as anything other than a conclusion not supported by evidence.

    So although I don't think things will be quite as bad as some models are predicting, if I was a decision maker put on the spot, probably we'd have a few more restrictions already.
    In the first graph the comparison is between the 30 day rolling average in cases and the number of patients in hospital

    The point is how closely this tracks through the first waves, separates through the summer but diverges massively with the first few weeks Omicron data

    BUt iT dOeSNt DivergE With OMicRoN dAtA because THeRe ISNt aNy
  • yorkshireraw
    yorkshireraw Posts: 1,632
    Stevo_666 said:

    Jezyboy said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    yorkshireraw said:



    Johnson is an idiot with 3 main urges - money, women, booze.

    Hardly unique then.
    Point being?

    He is the prime minister... We should probably aim for someone above average...
    Erm, point being that it's not unique...

    I never mentioned average.
    Problem is they seem to be his only urges / considerations. Absolutely no critical thinking (because he already thinks he's a genius, so his instincts, base as they are, must be right), self-control, or ability to see things from another's PoV.

    He's way less than average, in terms of requirements we should expect from the highest office of the land.
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,605
    imposter2.0 said:

    I'm not going to quote his post, but I just wanted to highlight the absurdity of covidiot's bar-owning 'mate', who's just gone out and bought some awnings and space heaters........when literally every other bar owner did this about a year ago..

    While we're on this subject, my favourite so far is him being outraged that his posh cocktail bar downstairs might shut due to covid restrictions, but apparently being so scared of the virus that he'd tell his brother to f*** off if he travelled from the USA.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Is it just me that thinks that the case numbers and hospitalisations look distinctly coupled?
    Well, hospitalisations increase as cases increases, but the 'length of the couple' has stretched.
    I understand what they say it shows, but I have eyes.
    Now, going back to the infections vs. hospitalisations plot, if you take 2 week's worth of infections away, you are left with essentially the pre-Omicron data. So anything you think it shows is reading tea leaves.

    Let's disregard the most recent tweet you posted - because the blue line, whatever it is, however clever it is, shows something that Nick Freeman agrees with. This should be an alarm bell for you.

    Can't argue with that

    Remove the recent data and there'll be no Omicron data on the graph.
    Don't be intentionally gormless eh? You know full well that there's a lag between infections and hospitalisations. So although it is tempting, comparing today's infections with today's hospitalisations is misleading. And that is what you are doing.

    And just so you know, I think the doomsday modeling this time around is going to turn out to be wildly innacurate and the peak will be shorter and less bad than last year. However, I am guessing because there's no data yet, just some unreliable extrapolations.
    That graph isn't comparing today's infections with today's hospitalisations
    How much is it offset by and how do you know?

    Additionally, his analysis, based on a few days' data is that % hospitalisations is nearly at an all time low. Which means it has gone up. He also takes no account of why it was at an all time low. That was because the delta wave over the summer has been in lower age groups. That is not predicted to be the case for Omicron because of family mixing and sheer numbers.

    There's no way you can spin that as anything other than a conclusion not supported by evidence.

    So although I don't think things will be quite as bad as some models are predicting, if I was a decision maker put on the spot, probably we'd have a few more restrictions already.
    In the first graph the comparison is between the 30 day rolling average in cases and the number of patients in hospital

    The point is how closely this tracks through the first waves, separates through the summer but diverges massively with the first few weeks Omicron data

    BUt iT dOeSNt DivergE With OMicRoN dAtA because THeRe ISNt aNy
    Up thread you were posting about deleting 2 omicron weeks data

    Now there isn't any

    Honestly, a snarky posting style is only going to take you so far.



    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • imposter2.0
    imposter2.0 Posts: 12,028
    Jezyboy said:

    imposter2.0 said:

    I'm not going to quote his post, but I just wanted to highlight the absurdity of covidiot's bar-owning 'mate', who's just gone out and bought some awnings and space heaters........when literally every other bar owner did this about a year ago..

    While we're on this subject, my favourite so far is him being outraged that his posh cocktail bar downstairs might shut due to covid restrictions, but apparently being so scared of the virus that he'd tell his brother to f*** off if he travelled from the USA.
    Despite all the LF, PCR and various other isolation measures in place for foreign travellers which would practically guarantee that his brother would be covid-free on arrival...
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    imposter2.0 said:

    Jezyboy said:

    imposter2.0 said:

    I'm not going to quote his post, but I just wanted to highlight the absurdity of covidiot's bar-owning 'mate', who's just gone out and bought some awnings and space heaters........when literally every other bar owner did this about a year ago..

    While we're on this subject, my favourite so far is him being outraged that his posh cocktail bar downstairs might shut due to covid restrictions, but apparently being so scared of the virus that he'd tell his brother to f*** off if he travelled from the USA.
    Despite all the LF, PCR and various other isolation measures in place for foreign travellers which would practically guarantee that his brother would be covid-free on arrival...

    Wait for this to be flagged by the random f****er.*

    (*flagger)
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    Black's the new purple...


    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    briantrumpet said:

    Black's the new purple...


    Even there it's rocketed and stayed high, not carried on rocketing up. Is that a matter of testing capacity, testing delays or real?

  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    kingstongraham said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Black's the new purple...


    Even there it's rocketed and stayed high, not carried on rocketing up. Is that a matter of testing capacity, testing delays or real?

    What's your data source? The local data on the BBC only goes up to the 16th when it is pretty much off the scale.
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    kingstongraham said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Black's the new purple...


    Even there it's rocketed and stayed high, not carried on rocketing up. Is that a matter of testing capacity, testing delays or real?

    The rocketing generally seemed to stop around the time when isolation would mean missing christmas, which did make me a little suspicious.
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    First.Aspect said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Is it just me that thinks that the case numbers and hospitalisations look distinctly coupled?
    Well, hospitalisations increase as cases increases, but the 'length of the couple' has stretched.
    I understand what they say it shows, but I have eyes.
    Now, going back to the infections vs. hospitalisations plot, if you take 2 week's worth of infections away, you are left with essentially the pre-Omicron data. So anything you think it shows is reading tea leaves.

    Let's disregard the most recent tweet you posted - because the blue line, whatever it is, however clever it is, shows something that Nick Freeman agrees with. This should be an alarm bell for you.

    Can't argue with that

    Remove the recent data and there'll be no Omicron data on the graph.
    Don't be intentionally gormless eh? You know full well that there's a lag between infections and hospitalisations. So although it is tempting, comparing today's infections with today's hospitalisations is misleading. And that is what you are doing.

    And just so you know, I think the doomsday modeling this time around is going to turn out to be wildly innacurate and the peak will be shorter and less bad than last year. However, I am guessing because there's no data yet, just some unreliable extrapolations.
    That graph isn't comparing today's infections with today's hospitalisations
    How much is it offset by and how do you know?

    Additionally, his analysis, based on a few days' data is that % hospitalisations is nearly at an all time low. Which means it has gone up. He also takes no account of why it was at an all time low. That was because the delta wave over the summer has been in lower age groups. That is not predicted to be the case for Omicron because of family mixing and sheer numbers.

    There's no way you can spin that as anything other than a conclusion not supported by evidence.

    So although I don't think things will be quite as bad as some models are predicting, if I was a decision maker put on the spot, probably we'd have a few more restrictions already.
    In the first graph the comparison is between the 30 day rolling average in cases and the number of patients in hospital

    The point is how closely this tracks through the first waves, separates through the summer but diverges massively with the first few weeks Omicron data

    BUt iT dOeSNt DivergE With OMicRoN dAtA because THeRe ISNt aNy
    Up thread you were posting about deleting 2 omicron weeks data

    Now there isn't any

    Honestly, a snarky posting style is only going to take you so far.



    A little rich. I said there was about a weeks', mixed up with about three times as much Delta-based data. Trying to keep it simple for you.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Black's the new purple...


    Even there it's rocketed and stayed high, not carried on rocketing up. Is that a matter of testing capacity, testing delays or real?

    What's your data source? The local data on the BBC only goes up to the 16th when it is pretty much off the scale.
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/



    Unless something very unusual happens, the grey bars for 16th and 17th aren't going to double in height.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Black's the new purple...


    Even there it's rocketed and stayed high, not carried on rocketing up. Is that a matter of testing capacity, testing delays or real?

    What's your data source? The local data on the BBC only goes up to the 16th when it is pretty much off the scale.
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/



    Unless something very unusual happens, the grey bars for 16th and 17th aren't going to double in height.
    Thanks. I had ignored the grey stuff as it was labelled "incomplete", but if you noticed that it doesn't change much, then that is useful - my borough would be back to normal in that case.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    edited December 2021
    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Black's the new purple...


    Even there it's rocketed and stayed high, not carried on rocketing up. Is that a matter of testing capacity, testing delays or real?

    What's your data source? The local data on the BBC only goes up to the 16th when it is pretty much off the scale.
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/



    Unless something very unusual happens, the grey bars for 16th and 17th aren't going to double in height.
    Thanks. I had ignored the grey stuff as it was labelled "incomplete", but if you noticed that it doesn't change much, then that is useful - my borough would be back to normal in that case.
    This is London, with the "added today" in yellow, so it does go back a few days, but unless something weird happens, not enough to massively change it.


  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Well with that and the SA stuff we may be in a position where this is the peak....which seems very counter intuitive.
    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Black's the new purple...


    Even there it's rocketed and stayed high, not carried on rocketing up. Is that a matter of testing capacity, testing delays or real?

    What's your data source? The local data on the BBC only goes up to the 16th when it is pretty much off the scale.
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/



    Unless something very unusual happens, the grey bars for 16th and 17th aren't going to double in height.
    Thanks. I had ignored the grey stuff as it was labelled "incomplete", but if you noticed that it doesn't change much, then that is useful - my borough would be back to normal in that case.
    This is London, with the "added today" in yellow, so it does go back a few days, but unless something weird happens, not enough to massively change it.


    Thanks, so the peak is unlikely to go up more, but the 20th Dec data could easily rise to the level of the plateau.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    rick_chasey said:

    Well with that and the SA stuff we may be in a position where this is the peak....which seems very counter intuitive.

    I think behaviour change has been quite dramatic to avoid getting it before Christmas.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,328
    imposter2.0 said:

    Jezyboy said:

    imposter2.0 said:

    I'm not going to quote his post, but I just wanted to highlight the absurdity of covidiot's bar-owning 'mate', who's just gone out and bought some awnings and space heaters........when literally every other bar owner did this about a year ago..

    While we're on this subject, my favourite so far is him being outraged that his posh cocktail bar downstairs might shut due to covid restrictions, but apparently being so scared of the virus that he'd tell his brother to f*** off if he travelled from the USA.
    Despite all the LF, PCR and various other isolation measures in place for foreign travellers which would practically guarantee that his brother would be covid-free on arrival...
    Not necessarily true. Our son flew in 2-1/2 weeks ago. Negative on departure, negative on arrival. Feeling poorly and tested positive @ 10 days later. Most likely contracted during transit.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,554
    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Black's the new purple...


    Even there it's rocketed and stayed high, not carried on rocketing up. Is that a matter of testing capacity, testing delays or real?

    What's your data source? The local data on the BBC only goes up to the 16th when it is pretty much off the scale.
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/



    Unless something very unusual happens, the grey bars for 16th and 17th aren't going to double in height.
    Thanks. I had ignored the grey stuff as it was labelled "incomplete", but if you noticed that it doesn't change much, then that is useful - my borough would be back to normal in that case.
    This is London, with the "added today" in yellow, so it does go back a few days, but unless something weird happens, not enough to massively change it.


    Something like everyone traversing the country and spending hours eating and drinking together?

    Wife was just on the phone to her mother and it seems Bristol is pretty well oblivious to what has just happened in London.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    kingstongraham said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Well with that and the SA stuff we may be in a position where this is the peak....which seems very counter intuitive.

    I think behaviour change has been quite dramatic to avoid getting it before Christmas.
    This is a point @surrey_commuter has made since the start of the pandemic. On the basis that I nearly always disagree with him about everything, it is only fair to point out that I think he is right on this one.
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    kingstongraham said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Well with that and the SA stuff we may be in a position where this is the peak....which seems very counter intuitive.

    I think behaviour change has been quite dramatic to avoid getting it before Christmas.
    Agreed.

    One case in point - the Spurs vs Liverpool match on Sunday was completely sold out yet only 45,000 out of a potential 61,000 turned up to watch the match. Me and 3 of my mates, all season tkt holders, avoided going to the game because of wanting to lessen our chances of contracting Covid. I knew some others would follow suit, but didn’t expect 25% of the seats to not be filled.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    kingstonian said:

    kingstongraham said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Well with that and the SA stuff we may be in a position where this is the peak....which seems very counter intuitive.

    I think behaviour change has been quite dramatic to avoid getting it before Christmas.
    Agreed.

    One case in point - the Spurs vs Liverpool match on Sunday was completely sold out yet only 45,000 out of a potential 61,000 turned up to watch the match. Me and 3 of my mates, all season tkt holders, avoided going to the game because of wanting to lessen our chances of contracting Covid. I knew some others would follow suit, but didn’t expect 25% of the seats to not be filled.
    I think the main hazard is public transport, so it depends how you get to the game.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    rjsterry said:

    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Black's the new purple...


    Even there it's rocketed and stayed high, not carried on rocketing up. Is that a matter of testing capacity, testing delays or real?

    What's your data source? The local data on the BBC only goes up to the 16th when it is pretty much off the scale.
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/



    Unless something very unusual happens, the grey bars for 16th and 17th aren't going to double in height.
    Thanks. I had ignored the grey stuff as it was labelled "incomplete", but if you noticed that it doesn't change much, then that is useful - my borough would be back to normal in that case.
    This is London, with the "added today" in yellow, so it does go back a few days, but unless something weird happens, not enough to massively change it.


    Something like everyone traversing the country and spending hours eating and drinking together?

    Wife was just on the phone to her mother and it seems Bristol is pretty well oblivious to what has just happened in London.
    Yes, this will make sure it's spread nicely around the country and not just in Lambeth.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    rjsterry said:

    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Black's the new purple...


    Even there it's rocketed and stayed high, not carried on rocketing up. Is that a matter of testing capacity, testing delays or real?

    What's your data source? The local data on the BBC only goes up to the 16th when it is pretty much off the scale.
    https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/



    Unless something very unusual happens, the grey bars for 16th and 17th aren't going to double in height.
    Thanks. I had ignored the grey stuff as it was labelled "incomplete", but if you noticed that it doesn't change much, then that is useful - my borough would be back to normal in that case.
    This is London, with the "added today" in yellow, so it does go back a few days, but unless something weird happens, not enough to massively change it.


    Something like everyone traversing the country and spending hours eating and drinking together?

    Wife was just on the phone to her mother and it seems Bristol is pretty well oblivious to what has just happened in London.

    And I've just noticed it's rising quite rapidly in Bristol at the mo.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    So, getting back to rational discourse, I am confused by the case numbers. The bloke who runs the Zoe app noted in yesterday's podcast that his self-reported case numbers don't show the same pattern. Also, testing numbers have gone up from around 800k to about 1.2m in the same period as confirmed positives have risen 33% week on week.

    If the word "Omicron" wasn't in the conversation and we were seeing 60k cases a day vs 50k last week (i.e. if testing numbers were roughly constant), would we be worried to anything like the same extent?

    I really don't know how worried to be.
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59747966

    No new restrictions before Christmas in England
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,725
    Meanwhile in Wales, Drakeford’s latest initiative is to slap £60 fines on workers who are not working from home, when they could.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • skyblueamateur
    skyblueamateur Posts: 1,498
    First.Aspect said:

    So, getting back to rational discourse, I am confused by the case numbers. The bloke who runs the Zoe app noted in yesterday's podcast that his self-reported case numbers don't show the same pattern. Also, testing numbers have gone up from around 800k to about 1.2m in the same period as confirmed positives have risen 33% week on week.

    If the word "Omicron" wasn't in the conversation and we were seeing 60k cases a day vs 50k last week (i.e. if testing numbers were roughly constant), would we be worried to anything like the same extent?

    I really don't know how worried to be.

    This is confusing me to be honest. Surely if case numbers were doubling every 2-3 days we would be seeing huge increases whereas they've been steady at round 90k since Friday.

    I've definitely been testing more and doing a LFT every day with a PCR today. I want Xmas to be as safe as it can be for my family. If I come back positive so be it. I'll still have a great xmas with the wife and kids safe in the knowledge I've done the right thing and not infected my parents.

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