The big Coronavirus thread

tailwindhome

Healthwise I'm simultaneously relaxed for myself and my kids, but seriously concerned for my mother in law who's just clear of cancer but has had to abandon the follow up chemo as it nearly killed her.

Also my be looking at a immediate financial write off of £1500 for 3 school trips to London which may or may not be going head and wouldn't be refundable unless UK gov bans intra UK travel

Oh, and I work in hospitality which is looking exceptionally dicey right now

Jeremy.89

Out in the USA working at the moment. Feels like the response has gone from 0 to 60 in no time at all...

focuszing723

Jeremy.89 said:

Out in the USA working at the moment. Feels like the response has gone from 0 to 60 in no time at all...

I expect as you probably know Trump is about to give a speech, talk of issuing a state of emergency to release funds.

mrfpb

focuszing723 said:

Jeremy.89 said:

Out in the USA working at the moment. Feels like the response has gone from 0 to 60 in no time at all...

I expect as you probably know Trump is about to give a speech, talk of issuing a state of emergency to release funds.

I'm wickedly hoping he'll announce he has it, after the visit from the Brazilians.

focuszing723

mrfpb said:

focuszing723 said:

Jeremy.89 said:

Out in the USA working at the moment. Feels like the response has gone from 0 to 60 in no time at all...

I expect as you probably know Trump is about to give a speech, talk of issuing a state of emergency to release funds.

I'm wickedly hoping he'll announce he has it, after the visit from the Brazilians.

Ha, nah he sounds great, greater than any other president in the world. Fifty bill on tap now. He seems to be sniffing a bit, ominous!

mrfpb

I think the biggest threat to the economy is when people realise they can live without pay-per-view sport and an annual iPhone upgrade

mrfpb

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

And another landmark - Italy now has more active cases than China.

surrey_commuter

morstar said:

surrey_commuter said:

awavey said:

But a politicians natural instinct is to act,to be seen to be doing something,anything regardless of how useful it actually is just to demonstrate how in control of things they are.

It must actually be very difficult for someone like Boris to say actually the advice weve got says timing is more critical to get this the best outcome we can have,and the best outcome is still alot of people will die, so note none of the things others are doing are ruled out,but when we reach that point is critical to get right.

And it has to be said there is no point in having governments fund research or expert advisors if all you do is copy what everyone else does anyway.

I agree with all of your points but still think it amazing that we have come to the opposite conclusion to the rest of the world. With the absence of extensive testing there has to be a massive risk that by the time our Govt acts it will be far too late.

I don’t know the ins and outs but.
I find it perfectly plausible that the RoW has received very similar advice to UK but RoW politicians have ignored it purely for reasons of perception and herd mentality.
Assuming the UK advice is the concensus expert opinion, I think it is quite admirable to ignore the crowd.
If it is simply ‘the advice I like the best’ amongst a sea of varied opinions then that is a slightly different matter.
We’ve seen what ill informed crowd mentality has done to the shops though so there is no shame in forging a different yet informed path.
Will have to wait and see.
I’m asthmatic, wife still rattles after breathing problems she picked up in October, mum late 70’s with all round ropey respiratory system and dad quite a weak 83 year old.
It has actually hit home that there is a real possibility one (or more) of us may quite possibly not see this one out.
Don’t get me wrong, not sat here panicking or anything and under no illusions parents don’t live forever. But the fact there is a tangible threat and the sensible thing is to not go and see them is quite frustrating.

Surely your actions suggest that Boris is wrong to not try and do more to protect the vulnerable.

FWIW I am in the same boat and have kept away from them for two weeks. Maybe this is what drives my dissatisfaction with the Boris approach as they are not doing enough (IMHO) to protect themselves because they are listening to Govt advice

morstar

surrey_commuter said:

morstar said:

surrey_commuter said:

awavey said:

But a politicians natural instinct is to act,to be seen to be doing something,anything regardless of how useful it actually is just to demonstrate how in control of things they are.

It must actually be very difficult for someone like Boris to say actually the advice weve got says timing is more critical to get this the best outcome we can have,and the best outcome is still alot of people will die, so note none of the things others are doing are ruled out,but when we reach that point is critical to get right.

And it has to be said there is no point in having governments fund research or expert advisors if all you do is copy what everyone else does anyway.

I agree with all of your points but still think it amazing that we have come to the opposite conclusion to the rest of the world. With the absence of extensive testing there has to be a massive risk that by the time our Govt acts it will be far too late.

I don’t know the ins and outs but.
I find it perfectly plausible that the RoW has received very similar advice to UK but RoW politicians have ignored it purely for reasons of perception and herd mentality.
Assuming the UK advice is the concensus expert opinion, I think it is quite admirable to ignore the crowd.
If it is simply ‘the advice I like the best’ amongst a sea of varied opinions then that is a slightly different matter.
We’ve seen what ill informed crowd mentality has done to the shops though so there is no shame in forging a different yet informed path.
Will have to wait and see.
I’m asthmatic, wife still rattles after breathing problems she picked up in October, mum late 70’s with all round ropey respiratory system and dad quite a weak 83 year old.
It has actually hit home that there is a real possibility one (or more) of us may quite possibly not see this one out.
Don’t get me wrong, not sat here panicking or anything and under no illusions parents don’t live forever. But the fact there is a tangible threat and the sensible thing is to not go and see them is quite frustrating.

Surely your actions suggest that Boris is wrong to not try and do more to protect the vulnerable.

FWIW I am in the same boat and have kept away from them for two weeks. Maybe this is what drives my dissatisfaction with the Boris approach as they are not doing enough (IMHO) to protect themselves because they are listening to Govt advice

Fair comment. Mentally they are both sharp as tacks so have pretty much isolated themselves since last weekend and have a big shop arriving. They actually managed to get toilet rolls sent too which is more than I have just managed on a traditional trip to the shops.
We are about T-3 days on toilet roll expiry.
No pills, soap, toilet rolls or pasta in any of the 3 shops I have just been to.
Shops noticeably busy and all shelves far lower than usual (including booze).
No shortage of retail work at the moment I’d have thought.
Ironic that I had planned some prepping for no deal Brexit but not this type of thing.
Point taken for future reference that plans may need to be firmed up.

Pross

Listened to Trump's speech. US is doing more than anyone apparently. I bet the preppers over there are loving it and are feeling vindicated.

TheBigBean

Another 250 deaths in Italy. Likely to pass China quite soon at this rate.

focuszing723

It sounds like we could end up on the US's $h1t list too as a result of the 208 new cases after a question to Trump. I guess they understand what 'herd immunity' means now.

Dorset_Boy

Lots of border closures (from BBC website):
A look at border restrictions in Europe
Various European countries have closed their borders or announced new restrictions in the past day or two. Here's a summary of some of the measures introduced:

Denmark: Bans all foreigners from entering without a valid purpose (such as residency or emergency family visit)
Poland: Foreigners banned from entering from Sunday
Czech Republic: Bans all foreigners from entering the country, except those with residence permits. Bans its own nationals from leaving
Slovakia: Closes borders to all foreigners except Poles and those with a residence permit
Austria: Closes three land border crossings with Italy to all foreigners, except those with a medical certificate issued within four days. No restriction on Austrian nationals
Ukraine: Closes border crossings to foreigners (except diplomats) for two weeks
Hungary: Closes land borders with Austria and Slovenia
Slovenia: Closes six border crossings with Italy. Bus and train travel suspended. Foreigners may only enter with a medical certificate issued within three days
Serbia: Closes border crossings with Romania, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Croatia
Romania: Closes borders with Hungary, Ukraine, Bulgaria and Moldova
Albania: Closes borders with Montenegro, Kosovo and North Macedonia

morstar

Wow.
Although more importantly, I have toilet rolls and paracetamol from the corner shop. I can now die with a clean arse and no headache.
Crazy times. China had the authoritarian advantage of an aggressive shutdown but have come out the other side quite quickly. Will be interesting to see the contrast to the rest of the world. I’m assuming months.
It will be interesting how it develops. Supposing in 6-10 weeks or so and a fair chunk of people have had the virus and are back to everyday life, do we just get back to normal or do we have a two tier society of people avoiding it and those who have had it.

pblakeney

That is an assumption that you cannot have a reoccurrence. How often can you have the flu?
One expert has already predicted another flare up in China as soon as restrictions are lifted.

Jeremy.89

There's lots of different strains of flu though.

pblakeney

Jeremy.89 said:

There's lots of different strains of flu though.

It is still an assumption regarding Coronavirus. Until informed otherwise.

surrey_commuter

morstar said:

Wow.
Although more importantly, I have toilet rolls and paracetamol from the corner shop. I can now die with a clean censored and no headache.
Crazy times. China had the authoritarian advantage of an aggressive shutdown but have come out the other side quite quickly. Will be interesting to see the contrast to the rest of the world. I’m assuming months.
It will be interesting how it develops. Supposing in 6-10 weeks or so and a fair chunk of people have had the virus and are back to everyday life, do we just get back to normal or do we have a two tier society of people avoiding it and those who have had it.

Boris’s idea needs 60 of the population to have got it and survived, then the rate of spread will be less than one in two and will die out.

Singapore is a lot less authoritarian than China and seem to have handled it very well.

If Boris has miscalculated the rate of contagion or his ability to control it then we will be properly fooked.

There is an argument for trying to catch it early whilst the NHS still has the resources to help you.

surrey_commuter

Dorset_Boy said:

Lots of border closures (from BBC website):
A look at border restrictions in Europe
Various European countries have closed their borders or announced new restrictions in the past day or two. Here's a summary of some of the measures introduced:

Denmark: Bans all foreigners from entering without a valid purpose (such as residency or emergency family visit)
Poland: Foreigners banned from entering from Sunday
Czech Republic: Bans all foreigners from entering the country, except those with residence permits. Bans its own nationals from leaving
Slovakia: Closes borders to all foreigners except Poles and those with a residence permit
Austria: Closes three land border crossings with Italy to all foreigners, except those with a medical certificate issued within four days. No restriction on Austrian nationals
Ukraine: Closes border crossings to foreigners (except diplomats) for two weeks
Hungary: Closes land borders with Austria and Slovenia
Slovenia: Closes six border crossings with Italy. Bus and train travel suspended. Foreigners may only enter with a medical certificate issued within three days
Serbia: Closes border crossings with Romania, Bulgaria, North Macedonia, Montenegro, Bosnia and Croatia
Romania: Closes borders with Hungary, Ukraine, Bulgaria and Moldova
Albania: Closes borders with Montenegro, Kosovo and North Macedonia

You missed the UK who have advised people over the age of 70 not to go on cruises.

mrfpb

2003 SARS is now 'just' a flu they include in the annual jab when its in the top 5.
Once we have a vaccine this will be the same. It's about how we manage the virus until then (2 years or so).

morstar

pblakeney said:

That is an assumption that you cannot have a reoccurrence. How often can you have the flu?
One expert has already predicted another flare up in China as soon as restrictions are lifted.

I am surprised China is lifting restrictions so soon but I assume they have a better grasp of where they’re at than me.
With regard to re contracting the virus. Yes, an assumption on my part but I’d have thought you would have immunity once infected and back to health. I stand to be corrected.

Jeremy.89

morstar said:

pblakeney said:

That is an assumption that you cannot have a reoccurrence. How often can you have the flu?
One expert has already predicted another flare up in China as soon as restrictions are lifted.

I am surprised China is lifting restrictions so soon but I assume they have a better grasp of where they’re at than me.
With regard to re contracting the virus. Yes, an assumption on my part but I’d have thought you would have immunity once infected and back to health. I stand to be corrected.

Few reports suggest otherwise, but atm its considered unlikely.

Pross

surrey_commuter said:

morstar said:

Wow.
Although more importantly, I have toilet rolls and paracetamol from the corner shop. I can now die with a clean censored and no headache.
Crazy times. China had the authoritarian advantage of an aggressive shutdown but have come out the other side quite quickly. Will be interesting to see the contrast to the rest of the world. I’m assuming months.
It will be interesting how it develops. Supposing in 6-10 weeks or so and a fair chunk of people have had the virus and are back to everyday life, do we just get back to normal or do we have a two tier society of people avoiding it and those who have had it.

Boris’s idea needs 60 of the population to have got it and survived, then the rate of spread will be less than one in two and will die out.

Singapore is a lot less authoritarian than China and seem to have handled it very well.

If Boris has miscalculated the rate of contagion or his ability to control it then we will be properly fooked.

There is an argument for trying to catch it early whilst the NHS still has the resources to help you.

I'm pretty sure it's not Boris's idea.

coopster_the_1st

pblakeney said:

That is an assumption that you cannot have a reoccurrence. How often can you have the flu?
One expert has already predicted another flare up in China as soon as restrictions are lifted.

The flair up in China will come from those who are currently in lock down and have not had the virus (which is most of the people there).

You cannot get this again without a significant mutation, as with flu, as you have the antibodies within your body. There is currently 1 mutation but is so minor in difference that if you catch either virus you will be immune from the other

pblakeney

morstar said:

pblakeney said:

That is an assumption that you cannot have a reoccurrence. How often can you have the flu?
One expert has already predicted another flare up in China as soon as restrictions are lifted.

I am surprised China is lifting restrictions so soon but I assume they have a better grasp of where they’re at than me.
With regard to re contracting the virus. Yes, an assumption on my part but I’d have thought you would have immunity once infected and back to health. I stand to be corrected.

A quick google...
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-13/china-japan-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive

surrey_commuter

Pross said:

surrey_commuter said:

morstar said:

Wow.
Although more importantly, I have toilet rolls and paracetamol from the corner shop. I can now die with a clean censored and no headache.
Crazy times. China had the authoritarian advantage of an aggressive shutdown but have come out the other side quite quickly. Will be interesting to see the contrast to the rest of the world. I’m assuming months.
It will be interesting how it develops. Supposing in 6-10 weeks or so and a fair chunk of people have had the virus and are back to everyday life, do we just get back to normal or do we have a two tier society of people avoiding it and those who have had it.

Boris’s idea needs 60 of the population to have got it and survived, then the rate of spread will be less than one in two and will die out.

Singapore is a lot less authoritarian than China and seem to have handled it very well.

If Boris has miscalculated the rate of contagion or his ability to control it then we will be properly fooked.

There is an argument for trying to catch it early whilst the NHS still has the resources to help you.

I'm pretty sure it's not Boris's idea.

I didn’t say it was his idea. Irrespective of whose idea it is his decision to go against the collective decision of the rest of the world. If it was not our physical and financial welfare on the line then you would have to admire his cojones.

mrb123

BBC News - Coronavirus: Why is the UK not shutting schools like other countries?
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-51874084

morstar

pblakeney said:

morstar said:

pblakeney said:

That is an assumption that you cannot have a reoccurrence. How often can you have the flu?
One expert has already predicted another flare up in China as soon as restrictions are lifted.

I am surprised China is lifting restrictions so soon but I assume they have a better grasp of where they’re at than me.
With regard to re contracting the virus. Yes, an assumption on my part but I’d have thought you would have immunity once infected and back to health. I stand to be corrected.

A quick google...
https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/story/2020-03-13/china-japan-korea-coronavirus-reinfection-test-positive

Interesting article but the summary is very much that a mix of poor testing protocols and not fully clearing the infection are the general conclusions of the reported reinfections.
The key takeaway is that it underlines how fast moving and uncertain the entire situation is.

capt_slog

Jeremy.89 said:

There's lots of different strains of flu though.

yup.

and it's possible that corona will yet mutate into something more virulent and lethal

tailwindhome

I hope they know what they are doing.

South Korea would seem to have got this on top of the situation

https://twitter.com/hancocktom/status/1238418484272431107?s=09