The big Coronavirus thread

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Comments

  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,919
    As previously posted, a number of government modelling advisors expect cases to fall soon depending on a number of factors. The ONS survey for last week had the highest ever level of infection, so it will be interesting see where this figure is when it is published on Friday. Some people are expecting a fall. Of course, no one knows for sure.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,172
    TheBigBean said:

    As previously posted, a number of government modelling advisors expect cases to fall soon depending on a number of factors. The ONS survey for last week had the highest ever level of infection, so it will be interesting see where this figure is when it is published on Friday. Some people are expecting a fall. Of course, no one knows for sure.

    That's the key thing this year. In 2020 certainly getting a peak out of the way before winter was a factor in the policy making (gee, how did that turn out in the end?), but it is hard to see that being the case this year.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,562
    TheBigBean said:

    As previously posted, a number of government modelling advisors expect cases to fall soon depending on a number of factors. The ONS survey for last week had the highest ever level of infection, so it will be interesting see where this figure is when it is published on Friday. Some people are expecting a fall. Of course, no one knows for sure.

    Feels a bit, "No. Trust me. This is the peak.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,919
    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    As previously posted, a number of government modelling advisors expect cases to fall soon depending on a number of factors. The ONS survey for last week had the highest ever level of infection, so it will be interesting see where this figure is when it is published on Friday. Some people are expecting a fall. Of course, no one knows for sure.

    Feels a bit, "No. Trust me. This is the peak.
    You may know by now that I am not an epidemiologist, so you certainly shouldn't be trusting me, but here's the swine flu graph again.


  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,562
    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    As previously posted, a number of government modelling advisors expect cases to fall soon depending on a number of factors. The ONS survey for last week had the highest ever level of infection, so it will be interesting see where this figure is when it is published on Friday. Some people are expecting a fall. Of course, no one knows for sure.

    Feels a bit, "No. Trust me. This is the peak.
    You may know by now that I am not an epidemiologist, so you certainly shouldn't be trusting me, but here's the swine flu graph again.


    Sure, I get the idea. It's the confidence that we are at the peak rather than still on the up-slope that I have an issue with. We've had apparent peaks before which have turned out to be false summits.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,919
    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    As previously posted, a number of government modelling advisors expect cases to fall soon depending on a number of factors. The ONS survey for last week had the highest ever level of infection, so it will be interesting see where this figure is when it is published on Friday. Some people are expecting a fall. Of course, no one knows for sure.

    Feels a bit, "No. Trust me. This is the peak.
    You may know by now that I am not an epidemiologist, so you certainly shouldn't be trusting me, but here's the swine flu graph again.


    Sure, I get the idea. It's the confidence that we are at the peak rather than still on the up-slope that I have an issue with. We've had apparent peaks before which have turned out to be false summits.
    I don't think anyone is 100% confident, but it seems to be a better idea than most others put forward.
  • darkhairedlord
    darkhairedlord Posts: 7,180
    Eventually you run out of people to infect.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,172
    darkhairedlord said:

    Eventually you run out of people to infect.

    Look up "endemic" and get back to us on that.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,172
    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    As previously posted, a number of government modelling advisors expect cases to fall soon depending on a number of factors. The ONS survey for last week had the highest ever level of infection, so it will be interesting see where this figure is when it is published on Friday. Some people are expecting a fall. Of course, no one knows for sure.

    Feels a bit, "No. Trust me. This is the peak.
    You may know by now that I am not an epidemiologist, so you certainly shouldn't be trusting me, but here's the swine flu graph again.


    Sure, I get the idea. It's the confidence that we are at the peak rather than still on the up-slope that I have an issue with. We've had apparent peaks before which have turned out to be false summits.
    I don't think anyone is 100% confident, but it seems to be a better idea than most others put forward.
    The confidence levels are very much lower this time around. Pretty clearly the third wave, or whatever this is, does not follow anything like the pattern of the first two or indeed your favourite example, swine flu.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,172
    So I have just read a guardian article on the threatened legal action against the govt for the failings in the Wolverhampton lab testing. Turns out it was a pretty new private company without normal accreditation.

    The govt has defended this by saying it was vetted by NHS Test and Trace.


    That's alright then
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,374
    First.Aspect said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    As previously posted, a number of government modelling advisors expect cases to fall soon depending on a number of factors. The ONS survey for last week had the highest ever level of infection, so it will be interesting see where this figure is when it is published on Friday. Some people are expecting a fall. Of course, no one knows for sure.

    Feels a bit, "No. Trust me. This is the peak.
    You may know by now that I am not an epidemiologist, so you certainly shouldn't be trusting me, but here's the swine flu graph again.


    Sure, I get the idea. It's the confidence that we are at the peak rather than still on the up-slope that I have an issue with. We've had apparent peaks before which have turned out to be false summits.
    I don't think anyone is 100% confident, but it seems to be a better idea than most others put forward.
    The confidence levels are very much lower this time around. Pretty clearly the third wave, or whatever this is, does not follow anything like the pattern of the first two or indeed your favourite example, swine flu.

    Yeah, not sure why BB keeps on giving us swine flu graphs, other than showing that pandemics come in waves. That's not news. This time round we've got a different virus, vaccines against it, and a government that appears to want to spread it without the courage to say so now, and with a history of waiting too long to make decisions that would mitigate illness and death.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    First.Aspect said:

    So I have just read a guardian article on the threatened legal action against the govt for the failings in the Wolverhampton lab testing. Turns out it was a pretty new private company without normal accreditation.

    The govt has defended this by saying it was vetted by NHS Test and Trace.


    That's alright then

    Be a surprise to find they have a major shareholder hiding somewhere in the background that donates to a certain political party.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,919
    briantrumpet said:

    First.Aspect said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    As previously posted, a number of government modelling advisors expect cases to fall soon depending on a number of factors. The ONS survey for last week had the highest ever level of infection, so it will be interesting see where this figure is when it is published on Friday. Some people are expecting a fall. Of course, no one knows for sure.

    Feels a bit, "No. Trust me. This is the peak.
    You may know by now that I am not an epidemiologist, so you certainly shouldn't be trusting me, but here's the swine flu graph again.


    Sure, I get the idea. It's the confidence that we are at the peak rather than still on the up-slope that I have an issue with. We've had apparent peaks before which have turned out to be false summits.
    I don't think anyone is 100% confident, but it seems to be a better idea than most others put forward.
    The confidence levels are very much lower this time around. Pretty clearly the third wave, or whatever this is, does not follow anything like the pattern of the first two or indeed your favourite example, swine flu.

    Yeah, not sure why BB keeps on giving us swine flu graphs, other than showing that pandemics come in waves. That's not news. This time round we've got a different virus, vaccines against it, and a government that appears to want to spread it without the courage to say so now, and with a history of waiting too long to make decisions that would mitigate illness and death.
    A lot of the older generation had immunity to swine flu, so it was mostly spread by the young. There were no social distancing precautions in place. This is very similar to the current situation where the older generation are protected by vaccines and it is spreading, quickly, without social distancing precautions amongst the young.

    Coincidentally (or perhaps not), the viruses started their unconstrained spread at similar times (July), so you can compare the graphs and see how cases drop in the summer holidays, rapidly increase and peak after October half-term. So far, that is the trajectory of this wave of covid. It may not be the peak, but there are signs.

  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,374
    TheBigBean said:

    briantrumpet said:

    First.Aspect said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    As previously posted, a number of government modelling advisors expect cases to fall soon depending on a number of factors. The ONS survey for last week had the highest ever level of infection, so it will be interesting see where this figure is when it is published on Friday. Some people are expecting a fall. Of course, no one knows for sure.

    Feels a bit, "No. Trust me. This is the peak.
    You may know by now that I am not an epidemiologist, so you certainly shouldn't be trusting me, but here's the swine flu graph again.


    Sure, I get the idea. It's the confidence that we are at the peak rather than still on the up-slope that I have an issue with. We've had apparent peaks before which have turned out to be false summits.
    I don't think anyone is 100% confident, but it seems to be a better idea than most others put forward.
    The confidence levels are very much lower this time around. Pretty clearly the third wave, or whatever this is, does not follow anything like the pattern of the first two or indeed your favourite example, swine flu.

    Yeah, not sure why BB keeps on giving us swine flu graphs, other than showing that pandemics come in waves. That's not news. This time round we've got a different virus, vaccines against it, and a government that appears to want to spread it without the courage to say so now, and with a history of waiting too long to make decisions that would mitigate illness and death.
    A lot of the older generation had immunity to swine flu, so it was mostly spread by the young. There were no social distancing precautions in place. This is very similar to the current situation where the older generation are protected by vaccines and it is spreading, quickly, without social distancing precautions amongst the young.

    Coincidentally (or perhaps not), the viruses started their unconstrained spread at similar times (July), so you can compare the graphs and see how cases drop in the summer holidays, rapidly increase and peak after October half-term. So far, that is the trajectory of this wave of covid. It may not be the peak, but there are signs.

    OK, thanks for the explanation,. TBB
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,172
    briantrumpet said:

    TheBigBean said:

    briantrumpet said:

    First.Aspect said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    As previously posted, a number of government modelling advisors expect cases to fall soon depending on a number of factors. The ONS survey for last week had the highest ever level of infection, so it will be interesting see where this figure is when it is published on Friday. Some people are expecting a fall. Of course, no one knows for sure.

    Feels a bit, "No. Trust me. This is the peak.
    You may know by now that I am not an epidemiologist, so you certainly shouldn't be trusting me, but here's the swine flu graph again.


    Sure, I get the idea. It's the confidence that we are at the peak rather than still on the up-slope that I have an issue with. We've had apparent peaks before which have turned out to be false summits.
    I don't think anyone is 100% confident, but it seems to be a better idea than most others put forward.
    The confidence levels are very much lower this time around. Pretty clearly the third wave, or whatever this is, does not follow anything like the pattern of the first two or indeed your favourite example, swine flu.

    Yeah, not sure why BB keeps on giving us swine flu graphs, other than showing that pandemics come in waves. That's not news. This time round we've got a different virus, vaccines against it, and a government that appears to want to spread it without the courage to say so now, and with a history of waiting too long to make decisions that would mitigate illness and death.
    A lot of the older generation had immunity to swine flu, so it was mostly spread by the young. There were no social distancing precautions in place. This is very similar to the current situation where the older generation are protected by vaccines and it is spreading, quickly, without social distancing precautions amongst the young.

    Coincidentally (or perhaps not), the viruses started their unconstrained spread at similar times (July), so you can compare the graphs and see how cases drop in the summer holidays, rapidly increase and peak after October half-term. So far, that is the trajectory of this wave of covid. It may not be the peak, but there are signs.

    OK, thanks for the explanation,. TBB
    Too soon to tell, at least based on the understanding of anyone here. There isn't a trend yet.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,172
    Pross said:

    First.Aspect said:

    So I have just read a guardian article on the threatened legal action against the govt for the failings in the Wolverhampton lab testing. Turns out it was a pretty new private company without normal accreditation.

    The govt has defended this by saying it was vetted by NHS Test and Trace.


    That's alright then

    Be a surprise to find they have a major shareholder hiding somewhere in the background that donates to a certain political party.
    Either way it's one for the irony thread.

    It is like being endorsed for 'honesty' on LinkedIn by the CEO of Volkswagen.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,374
    First.Aspect said:

    briantrumpet said:

    TheBigBean said:

    briantrumpet said:

    First.Aspect said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    As previously posted, a number of government modelling advisors expect cases to fall soon depending on a number of factors. The ONS survey for last week had the highest ever level of infection, so it will be interesting see where this figure is when it is published on Friday. Some people are expecting a fall. Of course, no one knows for sure.

    Feels a bit, "No. Trust me. This is the peak.
    You may know by now that I am not an epidemiologist, so you certainly shouldn't be trusting me, but here's the swine flu graph again.


    Sure, I get the idea. It's the confidence that we are at the peak rather than still on the up-slope that I have an issue with. We've had apparent peaks before which have turned out to be false summits.
    I don't think anyone is 100% confident, but it seems to be a better idea than most others put forward.
    The confidence levels are very much lower this time around. Pretty clearly the third wave, or whatever this is, does not follow anything like the pattern of the first two or indeed your favourite example, swine flu.

    Yeah, not sure why BB keeps on giving us swine flu graphs, other than showing that pandemics come in waves. That's not news. This time round we've got a different virus, vaccines against it, and a government that appears to want to spread it without the courage to say so now, and with a history of waiting too long to make decisions that would mitigate illness and death.
    A lot of the older generation had immunity to swine flu, so it was mostly spread by the young. There were no social distancing precautions in place. This is very similar to the current situation where the older generation are protected by vaccines and it is spreading, quickly, without social distancing precautions amongst the young.

    Coincidentally (or perhaps not), the viruses started their unconstrained spread at similar times (July), so you can compare the graphs and see how cases drop in the summer holidays, rapidly increase and peak after October half-term. So far, that is the trajectory of this wave of covid. It may not be the peak, but there are signs.

    OK, thanks for the explanation,. TBB
    Too soon to tell, at least based on the understanding of anyone here. There isn't a trend yet.

    Indeed, and my point was that there are too many other variables to draw too much comfort yet... of course peaks will come down, but when, how long for and how quickly is the question... but still grateful for TBB's reasoning.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,374
    Maybe when people are asleep they can't transmit a virus. And I'm sure we can overlook not wearing a mask in a conference centre in Scotland, where mask-wearing is still mandated.



    At least the 95-year-old Attenborough managed to stay awake.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    Any thoughts or insights into whether teenagers (under 16 yrs) are likely to be required to have a second dose? The UK seems to be the only country only giving one dose to this age group (don’t understand why countries can differ on the right approach), which actually renders these kids to be viewed as not fully vaccinated by other countries.

    I have a personal interest here - my kids are 13 and 15, and have had their one jab. Ideally we’d like to be able to travel but this one jab approach makes that pretty hard to do.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    kingstonian said:

    Any thoughts or insights into whether teenagers (under 16 yrs) are likely to be required to have a second dose? The UK seems to be the only country only giving one dose to this age group (don’t understand why countries can differ on the right approach), which actually renders these kids to be viewed as not fully vaccinated by other countries.

    I have a personal interest here - my kids are 13 and 15, and have had their one jab. Ideally we’d like to be able to travel but this one jab approach makes that pretty hard to do.

    On the different approaches I think that is probably explained by these vaccines being new and no-one really knowing the best strategy. It would be easy to criticise if we are doing something different but I was critical of the way we moved the gap between first and second jabs to two weeks at the time which actually turned out to be a good move.
  • shirley_basso
    shirley_basso Posts: 6,195
    Little ones' nursery is running out of staff due to COVID +ves.

    Everyone was temperature checked this morning going in.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    Not looked in ages, but since the start of July, there's been 16,008 excess deaths (compared with the 5 years before 2020). (In England and Wales)

    For those who think (again) that the deaths within 28 days means that it's just people dying for other reasons after a positive test, the excess deaths follow the waves very neatly.

    Jan - Feb: 32,607 excess deaths
    Mar - Jun: 8,909 fewer deaths than average
    Jul - Oct: 16,008 excess deaths

    Massive impact of the vaccines, but even with that, there are an average of 1,249 excess deaths per week over the last three months.
  • dinyull
    dinyull Posts: 2,979
    kingstongraham said:

    Not looked in ages, but since the start of July, there's been 16,008 excess deaths (compared with the 5 years before 2020). (In England and Wales)

    For those who think (again) that the deaths within 28 days means that it's just people dying for other reasons after a positive test, the excess deaths follow the waves very neatly.

    Jan - Feb: 32,607 excess deaths
    Mar - Jun: 8,909 fewer deaths than average
    Jul - Oct: 16,008 excess deaths

    Massive impact of the vaccines, but even with that, there are an average of 1,249 excess deaths per week over the last three months.

    I wonder how much of that is because of missed diagnosis of other illness?

    My dad fell poorly last year and whilst in hospital, morphine'ed up to his eyeballs at times, had to fight tooth and nail for them to speak with his consultant. He has/ had Leukaemia.

    He was in for a month before they would listen, without any visiting and virtually no contact between Dr's and any immediate family. Day's after speaking to said consultant he started treatment and since been given the all clear again (3rd time now).

    My boss' husband has a similar story, and is due to begin radiotherapy this month for skin cancer that has spread that otherwise would/ should have been picked up easily given his medical past.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,919
    kingstongraham said:

    Not looked in ages, but since the start of July, there's been 16,008 excess deaths (compared with the 5 years before 2020). (In England and Wales)

    For those who think (again) that the deaths within 28 days means that it's just people dying for other reasons after a positive test, the excess deaths follow the waves very neatly.

    Jan - Feb: 32,607 excess deaths
    Mar - Jun: 8,909 fewer deaths than average
    Jul - Oct: 16,008 excess deaths

    Massive impact of the vaccines, but even with that, there are an average of 1,249 excess deaths per week over the last three months.

    I don't think anyone sensible has contested that covid still kills. The problem is stopping it killing.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    Not sure why the missed diagnosis deaths would have fallen away dramatically between March and June and come back when Covid came back.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,919
    kingstonian said:

    Any thoughts or insights into whether teenagers (under 16 yrs) are likely to be required to have a second dose? The UK seems to be the only country only giving one dose to this age group (don’t understand why countries can differ on the right approach), which actually renders these kids to be viewed as not fully vaccinated by other countries.

    I have a personal interest here - my kids are 13 and 15, and have had their one jab. Ideally we’d like to be able to travel but this one jab approach makes that pretty hard to do.

    I have heard similar stories from parents with teenagers (not allowed on cruises etc.). There appears to be no obvious solution beyond reading the entry requirements for every country very carefully.

    I've given up holiday planning for the moment due to a combination of covid rules, the possibility they can change with almost no notice and the incredible expense of being constrained to school holidays. Not happy about it.

  • dinyull
    dinyull Posts: 2,979
    Good point!
  • Munsford0
    Munsford0 Posts: 678
    I work in a secondary school. First day back yesterday, all year 7-11 groups were meant to be jabbed. Depressing to see that only a third of kids were leaving class for vaccinations. Many of the remainder said they weren't getting jabbed and neither were their parents, and trotting out all manner of scare stories / conspiracy theories. I'm worried if the virus carries on infecting / reinfecting these uninoculated groups that we'll eventually end up with a variant that's less well controlled by current vaccines and we'll be starting all over again.

    The school clearly had a lot of unused vaccine because later in the day they were offering jabs to staff eligible for a first / second / booster. Annoyingly just a bit too soon for my booster :(
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,172
    Munsford0 said:

    I work in a secondary school. First day back yesterday, all year 7-11 groups were meant to be jabbed. Depressing to see that only a third of kids were leaving class for vaccinations. Many of the remainder said they weren't getting jabbed and neither were their parents, and trotting out all manner of scare stories / conspiracy theories. I'm worried if the virus carries on infecting / reinfecting these uninoculated groups that we'll eventually end up with a variant that's less well controlled by current vaccines and we'll be starting all over again.

    The school clearly had a lot of unused vaccine because later in the day they were offering jabs to staff eligible for a first / second / booster. Annoyingly just a bit too soon for my booster :(

    Are you as teachers allowed to give an opinion or provide any education about vaccines, or is that about as far off limits as suggesting that there isn't a god?
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    Thought I'd have a look at Julia Hartley-Brewer as well for old times sake. All climate change scepticism boosting now.

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