The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?tailwindhome said:
As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs workStevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?Stevo_666 said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?tailwindhome said:
As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs workStevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
No you're not, you're giving your opinion based on your take on my post. There are no facts in your post...tailwindhome said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?Stevo_666 said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?tailwindhome said:
As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs workStevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
Let me ask again, which bit of my post above do you disagree with?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
If there are 'no facts' in my post, and my post doesn't in any way disagree with the facts in your post, why would you think I 'disagree' with your post?Stevo_666 said:
No you're not, you're giving your opinion based on your take on my post. There are no facts in your post...tailwindhome said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?Stevo_666 said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?tailwindhome said:
As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs workStevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
Let me ask again, which bit of my post above do you disagree with?
It's an odd question which is therefore unanswerable
Which bit of my post do you disagree with?“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Your failure to account for large seasonal variations in deathsStevo_666 said:
No you're not, you're giving your opinion based on your take on my post. There are no facts in your post...tailwindhome said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?Stevo_666 said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?tailwindhome said:
As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs workStevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
Let me ask again, which bit of my post above do you disagree with?
Did your sources suggest the capacity in mortuaries etc0 -
So you agree with the facts.tailwindhome said:
If there are 'no facts' in my post, and my post doesn't in any way disagree with the facts in your post, why would you think I 'disagree' with your post?Stevo_666 said:
No you're not, you're giving your opinion based on your take on my post. There are no facts in your post...tailwindhome said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?Stevo_666 said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?tailwindhome said:
As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs workStevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
Let me ask again, which bit of my post above do you disagree with?
It's an odd question which is therefore unanswerable
Which bit of my post do you disagree with?
I don't understand your point so you'll have to first explain why you think it 'needs a bit of of work'."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo_666 said:
I have a feeling some of those forecasts and models might need revising just a tad...TheBigBean said:
Can you point me to a 2020 economic forecast from 2019 that is likely to be close? When you last brought up the subject of 2030 forecasts, I asked when the next recession would be, how it had been incorporated in the forecasts and the impact Brexit would have on the recovery.surrey_commuter said:
Stick around it gets more fun/confusing as their are those amongst us who don’t believe forecasting has any merit, therefore lockdown may have increased deaths from C19 and we will never know because an identical country in a parallel universe did not follow the non-lockdown approach.ddraver said:Ahhh, I see!
Bizarrely this post is serious
It's less a 'butterfly effect' than an elephant stomping into the room, having a massive dump all over the dinner that you've just served, then sitting on your lap. Or something.0 -
Really?Stevo_666 said:
So you agree with the facts.tailwindhome said:
If there are 'no facts' in my post, and my post doesn't in any way disagree with the facts in your post, why would you think I 'disagree' with your post?Stevo_666 said:
No you're not, you're giving your opinion based on your take on my post. There are no facts in your post...tailwindhome said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?Stevo_666 said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?tailwindhome said:
As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs workStevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
Let me ask again, which bit of my post above do you disagree with?
It's an odd question which is therefore unanswerable
Which bit of my post do you disagree with?
I don't understand your point so you'll have to first explain why you think it 'needs a bit of of work'.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
I was just looking at the numbers to see what the seasonal variations look like. Because I'm weird.surrey_commuter said:
Your failure to account for large seasonal variations in deathsStevo_666 said:
No you're not, you're giving your opinion based on your take on my post. There are no facts in your post...tailwindhome said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?Stevo_666 said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?tailwindhome said:
As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs workStevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
Let me ask again, which bit of my post above do you disagree with?
Did your sources suggest the capacity in mortuaries etc
The highest number of deaths are in the weeks in January (about 13,000), and it goes down steadily to about 9,000 a week in the summer.
The latest figures released are for week ending 27 March. 5 year average number of deaths = 10,130 for that week. Basically, it should be going down now, and the deaths in the week ending 27 March went up to 11,141. That includes 539 with COVID19.
London that week saw its highest number of deaths since January 2018 - 1,297 (about 300 more than average), including 237 with COVID 19.
Anyway, have a nice evening all.0 -
tailwindhome said:
I don't know how you'd even begin to forecast this quarter
What data would you even use?“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
The butterfly was the pangolin that ended up in a market.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I have a feeling some of those forecasts and models might need revising just a tad...TheBigBean said:
Can you point me to a 2020 economic forecast from 2019 that is likely to be close? When you last brought up the subject of 2030 forecasts, I asked when the next recession would be, how it had been incorporated in the forecasts and the impact Brexit would have on the recovery.surrey_commuter said:
Stick around it gets more fun/confusing as their are those amongst us who don’t believe forecasting has any merit, therefore lockdown may have increased deaths from C19 and we will never know because an identical country in a parallel universe did not follow the non-lockdown approach.ddraver said:Ahhh, I see!
Bizarrely this post is serious
It's less a 'butterfly effect' than an elephant stomping into the room, having a massive dump all over the dinner that you've just served, then sitting on your lap. Or something.
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Yes. Can't reply if you don't explain what you meant as your initialpoi t was pretty vague. Try again.tailwindhome said:
Really?Stevo_666 said:
So you agree with the facts.tailwindhome said:
If there are 'no facts' in my post, and my post doesn't in any way disagree with the facts in your post, why would you think I 'disagree' with your post?Stevo_666 said:
No you're not, you're giving your opinion based on your take on my post. There are no facts in your post...tailwindhome said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?Stevo_666 said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?tailwindhome said:
As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs workStevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
Let me ask again, which bit of my post above do you disagree with?
It's an odd question which is therefore unanswerable
Which bit of my post do you disagree with?
I don't understand your point so you'll have to first explain why you think it 'needs a bit of of work'."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
No.Stevo_666 said:
Yes. Can't reply if you don't explain what you meant as your initialpoi t was pretty vague. Try again.tailwindhome said:
Really?Stevo_666 said:
So you agree with the facts.tailwindhome said:
If there are 'no facts' in my post, and my post doesn't in any way disagree with the facts in your post, why would you think I 'disagree' with your post?Stevo_666 said:
No you're not, you're giving your opinion based on your take on my post. There are no facts in your post...tailwindhome said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?Stevo_666 said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?tailwindhome said:
As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs workStevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
Let me ask again, which bit of my post above do you disagree with?
It's an odd question which is therefore unanswerable
Which bit of my post do you disagree with?
I don't understand your point so you'll have to first explain why you think it 'needs a bit of of work'.
Work through it yourself.
Read it out loud if it helps
Think about context
Read it out loud again
Read it while running your finger under each word in turn
Think again about context
You'll get there.“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!1 -
As discussed several times now, the figure published is deaths registered, NOT deaths occurring. You're adding two different things together. It's also why John Burn Murdoch's graph is based on a 7-day average to try to remove the fluctuations due to administrative causes.Stevo_666 said:
Yep, my source gives the 2019 UK death rate as 9.3 per 1,000. UK population is approx. 67m which gives about 623,000 deaths per year. Divide that by 365 gives you a shade over 1,700 deaths per day.kingstongraham said:
Jeezus.Stevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total fpr the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Surely Cummings super forecasters all highlighted that covid was going to happen anyway?TheBigBean said:
The butterfly was the pangolin that ended up in a market.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I have a feeling some of those forecasts and models might need revising just a tad...TheBigBean said:
Can you point me to a 2020 economic forecast from 2019 that is likely to be close? When you last brought up the subject of 2030 forecasts, I asked when the next recession would be, how it had been incorporated in the forecasts and the impact Brexit would have on the recovery.surrey_commuter said:
Stick around it gets more fun/confusing as their are those amongst us who don’t believe forecasting has any merit, therefore lockdown may have increased deaths from C19 and we will never know because an identical country in a parallel universe did not follow the non-lockdown approach.ddraver said:Ahhh, I see!
Bizarrely this post is serious
It's less a 'butterfly effect' than an elephant stomping into the room, having a massive dump all over the dinner that you've just served, then sitting on your lap. Or something.
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Gosh, some wildly varying regional stuff going on here:
I've yet to read this (where the info comes from), but looks interesting. https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped-22-trusts-see-fatalities-double-in-last-seven-days/7027212.article
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I don't understand. Devon is right at the low end, but it's average age is about 85.briantrumpet said:Gosh, some wildly varying regional stuff going on here:
I've yet to read this (where the info comes from), but looks interesting. https://www.hsj.co.uk/news/coronavirus-deaths-mapped-22-trusts-see-fatalities-double-in-last-seven-days/7027212.article
Has the radon caused immortality mutations?0 -
Nope.tailwindhome said:
No.Stevo_666 said:
Yes. Can't reply if you don't explain what you meant as your initialpoi t was pretty vague. Try again.tailwindhome said:
Really?Stevo_666 said:
So you agree with the facts.tailwindhome said:
If there are 'no facts' in my post, and my post doesn't in any way disagree with the facts in your post, why would you think I 'disagree' with your post?Stevo_666 said:
No you're not, you're giving your opinion based on your take on my post. There are no facts in your post...tailwindhome said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?Stevo_666 said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?tailwindhome said:
As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs workStevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
Let me ask again, which bit of my post above do you disagree with?
It's an odd question which is therefore unanswerable
Which bit of my post do you disagree with?
I don't understand your point so you'll have to first explain why you think it 'needs a bit of of work'.
Work through it yourself.
Read it out loud if it helps
Think about context
Read it out loud again
Read it while running your finger under each word in turn
Think again about context
You'll get there.
The fatal flaw in your argument is thst you assumed I was posting as some sort of antidote to negativity. Not the case, it was simply putting the death rate into perspective. You assumed and you assumed wrong. Assumption is the mother of all **** ups as they say
Also interesting that you interpreted my post as an attempt to put to put positive spin on something and felt obliged to have a pop. That gives us an insight into your mindset."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Noone's trying to win a court case here Stevo. He made a joke at your expense and it was quite funny.- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Is this an attempt to understand the point you couldn't understand?Stevo_666 said:
Nope.tailwindhome said:
No.Stevo_666 said:
Yes. Can't reply if you don't explain what you meant as your initialpoi t was pretty vague. Try again.tailwindhome said:
Really?Stevo_666 said:
So you agree with the facts.tailwindhome said:
If there are 'no facts' in my post, and my post doesn't in any way disagree with the facts in your post, why would you think I 'disagree' with your post?Stevo_666 said:
No you're not, you're giving your opinion based on your take on my post. There are no facts in your post...tailwindhome said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?Stevo_666 said:
Just stating the facts and putting this into perspective. Which part of my post above do you disagree with?tailwindhome said:
As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs workStevo_666 said:
That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.rick_chasey said:938 U.K. deaths today...
Let me ask again, which bit of my post above do you disagree with?
It's an odd question which is therefore unanswerable
Which bit of my post do you disagree with?
I don't understand your point so you'll have to first explain why you think it 'needs a bit of of work'.
Work through it yourself.
Read it out loud if it helps
Think about context
Read it out loud again
Read it while running your finger under each word in turn
Think again about context
You'll get there.
The fatal flaw in your argument is thst you assumed I was posting as some sort of antidote to negativity. Not the case, it was simply putting the death rate into perspective. You assumed and you assumed wrong. Assumption is the mother of all **** ups as they say
Also interesting that you interpreted my post as an attempt to put to put positive spin on something and felt obliged to have a pop. That gives us an insight into your mindset.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
The pangolin butterfly was a black swan.Jeremy.89 said:
Surely Cummings super forecasters all highlighted that covid was going to happen anyway?TheBigBean said:
The butterfly was the pangolin that ended up in a market.briantrumpet said:Stevo_666 said:
I have a feeling some of those forecasts and models might need revising just a tad...TheBigBean said:
Can you point me to a 2020 economic forecast from 2019 that is likely to be close? When you last brought up the subject of 2030 forecasts, I asked when the next recession would be, how it had been incorporated in the forecasts and the impact Brexit would have on the recovery.surrey_commuter said:
Stick around it gets more fun/confusing as their are those amongst us who don’t believe forecasting has any merit, therefore lockdown may have increased deaths from C19 and we will never know because an identical country in a parallel universe did not follow the non-lockdown approach.ddraver said:Ahhh, I see!
Bizarrely this post is serious
It's less a 'butterfly effect' than an elephant stomping into the room, having a massive dump all over the dinner that you've just served, then sitting on your lap. Or something.“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0
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Does New Zealand have a plan for what comes next? Ban international travel and wait for a vaccine?
Fair play to them, but can't help thinking luck in when it came to your country plays a large part in all this as well.0 -
New Zealand is a long way from Australia. Australia is a long way from anywhere else. It got there later. This stat is no more significant than Scotland having fewer cases than London.
Pretty sure the Solomon Is are doing even better than NZ. Shame on NZ they reacted too late.0 -
In no way has Switzerland done as well as NZ, but the start of the restrictions was similar. In effect, they just stopped giving people options to break lock down and made sure people understood that they wouldn't immediately starve
Shut the pubs, parks, ski resorts (big deal here) etc - does that work? No, they re all going shopping
Shut the shops - they re all going to the (e.g.) gym
Shut the Gyms -....hmmm, ok this is better
Fine-tune the details - Ok, so now people are at home because...there's nothing else to do.
The first few happened over a long weekend, the rest took a few weeks.
Result - Curve is beginning to flatten, hospitals not overwhelmed and most people are isolated, but not actually locked down...
That was not the approach of the UK, which Umm'd and Ahh'd for a week/10 days first. What was notably to me from outside is how many people had already started working from home, isolating (or panic buying) long before it was forced upon them...
Edit - some context
Situation - https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/covid-19_coronavirus--the-situation-in-switzerland/45592192
Opinion Polls - https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/covid-19-monitor_swiss-concern-shifts-to-economic-fallout-of-coronavirus/45671640
Ooh - and a rather cool display of world wide data - https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
Good news: family member out of ICU and improving.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition5 -
rjsterry said:
Good news: family member out of ICU and improving.
With all the negative news, it's easy to overlook that the majority are still making it out the other side - and it reinforces why it's important to 'flatten the curve' so that those who can be saved in ICUs actually get a place in one.0
