The big Coronavirus thread

rick_chasey

It really is awful the restrictions that are put on funerals.

I attended a corona affected funeral (though she died before corona took a grip in the UK) and there is something particularly bleak about virtually no-one turning up, not even her daughter, and having to all sit more than 2m apart from each other.

All those hugs and pats on the back for reassurance are gone, except from people who you live with.

Really very sad. Takes a lot of mental power on behalf of loved-ones to rationalise the situation and not let it really take over you.

john80

rick_chasey said:

German Q2 GDP: Down 10%

Sorry I guess I should caveat this with some positive thinking.

"The entire economy of Germany has not been eradicated, and it has merely been decimated. What joy".

But they were doing so much better than the UK in managing this pandemic. How could this possibly be.

Jeremy.89

rick_chasey said:

Jeremy.89 said:

On the plus side if you find yourself in alberta, you can get a barrel of oil for less than a pint of beer.

Bargains to be had all around.

if you have storage the market will be in serious contago so you can make a packet if you can keep hold of it.

Storage is so low physical traders are literally chartering ships to sit off the coast fully laden with a view to selling later.

Some suppliers are literally paying for it to be taken away at the moment.

It's censored.

The expert opinion I have seen is split on whether this is good news for renwables, or whether oil being so cheap will mean it saturates the market when it comes back...

rick_chasey

john80 said:

rick_chasey said:

German Q2 GDP: Down 10%

Sorry I guess I should caveat this with some positive thinking.

"The entire economy of Germany has not been eradicated, and it has merely been decimated. What joy".

But they were doing so much better than the UK in managing this pandemic. How could this possibly be.

You don't know what the UK numbers are tbf.

Stevo_666

Longshot said:

surrey_commuter said:

ddraver said:

Ahhh, I see!

Stick around it gets more fun/confusing as their are those amongst us who don’t believe forecasting has any merit, therefore lockdown may have increased deaths from C19 and we will never know because an identical country in a parallel universe did not follow the non-lockdown approach.

Bizarrely this post is serious

Absolutely however unlikely it seems.

Best to read the forecasting discussion in context - which was specifically about long term forecasting over periods of many years. He may well be serious - he is seriously distorting the original argument.

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

ddraver said:

Ahhh, I see!

Stick around it gets more fun/confusing as their are those amongst us who don’t believe forecasting has any merit, therefore lockdown may have increased deaths from C19 and we will never know because an identical country in a parallel universe did not follow the non-lockdown approach.

Bizarrely this post is serious

Can you point me to a 2020 economic forecast from 2019 that is likely to be close? When you last brought up the subject of 2030 forecasts, I asked when the next recession would be, how it had been incorporated in the forecasts and the impact Brexit would have on the recovery.

TheBigBean

kingstongraham said:

First.Aspect said:

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

I think anyone who bothers to read what I write can see that for the most part, on this anyway,I've been more or less around half a week ahead of what gets reported in the papers.

Presumably this is because I have friends etc who are journos.

TBB and I have televisions which allow us to see two weeks into the future.

Can you ask your journo friends why the media report number of deaths without noticing they trend down at the weekend?

Guardian wrote a piece explaining why they don't think the numbers are right, and the guys at the FT have been saying that forever.

The guys I know are too junior to really have decision over that stuff. They do recognise their role in helping the gov't get through this though, and there is definitely a reticence to stoke the fire too much as that isn't helpful.

I posted something about the under-reporting of the numbers yesterday and I think I mentioned this previously. I don't doubt that there is a similar administrative lag in other countries' figures. It also emphasises the point about a full assessment only being possible when we have all the information.

The under reporting isn't an issue as such though. What you need from a policy perspective is precision, not necessarily accuracy.

We will no doubt see revised numbers and much wringing of hands in years to come when the dust has settled.

This "precision not accuracy" is correct in assessing whether a policy has moved numbers in the right direction.

It is not right when assessing a cost/benefit for any policy. If deaths are being hugely under reported, then it might lead to policy decisions that are not appropriate.

The figures reported suffer from two biases and one time delay:
- they include all notifiable deaths, when notified, so include a terminally ill patient that simply contracted C-19 in hospital, but died of something else. This is included on the date of notification.
- they do not include people that died of C-19 outside of hospital.

It's very easy to criticise these figures as meaningless, but I'm not sure there is a better metric that doesn't involve more delay in the examination of death certificates (something the ONS does later), so this one doesn't make my top 10 of government criticisms either.

tailwindhome

I don't know how you'd even begin to forecast this quarter

What data would you even use?

rick_chasey

Here's a question.

If the lockdown was fully lifted today, how many of you, assuming your job is there and ready to go, would immediately return to the office tomorrow?

Longshot

rick_chasey said:

Here's a question.

If the lockdown was fully lifted today, how many of you, assuming your job is there and ready to go, would immediately return to the office tomorrow?

If I was asked to, yes.

mrfpb

Expand on your assumption, is the lockdown lifted based on new evidence, or just completely at the whim of whoever is in charge.

mrfpb

if Coopster became Prime Minister this afternoon and declared the lockdown over against the advice of Whitty et al, then I would not return to work. I still have ten of the twelve weeks of "shielding" left to run, so I'm in for a long haul anyway.

TheBigBean

Jeremy.89 said:

rick_chasey said:

Jeremy.89 said:

On the plus side if you find yourself in alberta, you can get a barrel of oil for less than a pint of beer.

Bargains to be had all around.

if you have storage the market will be in serious contago so you can make a packet if you can keep hold of it.

Storage is so low physical traders are literally chartering ships to sit off the coast fully laden with a view to selling later.

Some suppliers are literally paying for it to be taken away at the moment.

It's censored.

The expert opinion I have seen is split on whether this is good news for renwables, or whether oil being so cheap will mean it saturates the market when it comes back...

Short term power prices have collapsed due to reduced demand. Long term power price forecasts are also down (serious forecasting warning here), but I can't remember why. Anyway, they don't help the deployment of renewables.

That said, existing renewables won't stop producing and everything else is going to suffer during the period of reduced demand.

Stevo_666

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

ddraver said:

Ahhh, I see!

Stick around it gets more fun/confusing as their are those amongst us who don’t believe forecasting has any merit, therefore lockdown may have increased deaths from C19 and we will never know because an identical country in a parallel universe did not follow the non-lockdown approach.

Bizarrely this post is serious

Can you point me to a 2020 economic forecast from 2019 that is likely to be close? When you last brought up the subject of 2030 forecasts, I asked when the next recession would be, how it had been incorporated in the forecasts and the impact Brexit would have on the recovery.

I have a feeling some of those forecasts and models might need revising just a tad...

kingstongraham

A better illustration of why the chart of pneumonia deaths decreasing is not showing what is claimed.

https://twitter.com/TylerMorganMe/status/1247706877145776129

shortfall

Interesting piece on Sweden's approach. We'll have to wait to see how well it ages. https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

rick_chasey

mrfpb said:

Expand on your assumption, is the lockdown lifted based on new evidence, or just completely at the whim of whoever is in charge.

Neither. BoJo whoever says that to protect the economy it's being lifted.

I ask because I've read reports in Wuhan that lots of people are really quite frightened of returning to work and are really fearful of a second wave.

I've had conversations with my wife who is vulnerable about what if my company immediately asks me to return.

It's not as straightforward as lifting the lockdown and boom, 2 weeks in we're back to normal. I think it will be a long and gradual process with oscillating freedoms

kingstongraham

Also this on Sweden:
https://www.spiked-online.com/2020/04/08/has-sweden-got-it-right-on-coronavirus/

mrfpb

rick_chasey said:

mrfpb said:

Expand on your assumption, is the lockdown lifted based on new evidence, or just completely at the whim of whoever is in charge.

Neither. BoJo whoever says that to protect the economy it's being lifted.

I ask because I've read reports in Wuhan that lots of people are really quite frightened of returning to work and are really fearful of a second wave.

I've had conversations with my wife who is vulnerable about what if my company immediately asks me to return.

It's not as straightforward as lifting the lockdown and boom, 2 weeks in we're back to normal. I think it will be a long and gradual process with oscillating freedoms

I agree with you on that point. It does not feel safe to return to work, and I very much doubt it will feel much safer next week. I'm guessing takeaways, then cafes and shops to open long before mass events come back. I expect bans on movement to be eased while police retain powers to break up large crowds.

Pross

rick_chasey said:

It really is awful the restrictions that are put on funerals.

I attended a corona affected funeral (though she died before corona took a grip in the UK) and there is something particularly bleak about virtually no-one turning up, not even her daughter, and having to all sit more than 2m apart from each other.

All those hugs and pats on the back for reassurance are gone, except from people who you live with.

Really very sad. Takes a lot of mental power on behalf of loved-ones to rationalise the situation and not let it really take over you.

We're arranging my wife's aunt's funeral at the moment. Our intention is to have a separate memorial service once the restrictions have been lifted.

Pross

rick_chasey said:

Here's a question.

If the lockdown was fully lifted today, how many of you, assuming your job is there and ready to go, would immediately return to the office tomorrow?

I would if asked, I tend to work from home regularly though in any case so current arrangements haven't made a massive impact. If the office was in London I'd be less likely to though.

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

ddraver said:

Ahhh, I see!

Stick around it gets more fun/confusing as their are those amongst us who don’t believe forecasting has any merit, therefore lockdown may have increased deaths from C19 and we will never know because an identical country in a parallel universe did not follow the non-lockdown approach.

Bizarrely this post is serious

Can you point me to a 2020 economic forecast from 2019 that is likely to be close? When you last brought up the subject of 2030 forecasts, I asked when the next recession would be, how it had been incorporated in the forecasts and the impact Brexit would have on the recovery.

You are a bright bloke so I am not going to take that request seriously

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

mrfpb said:

Expand on your assumption, is the lockdown lifted based on new evidence, or just completely at the whim of whoever is in charge.

Neither. BoJo whoever says that to protect the economy it's being lifted.

I ask because I've read reports in Wuhan that lots of people are really quite frightened of returning to work and are really fearful of a second wave.

I've had conversations with my wife who is vulnerable about what if my company immediately asks me to return.

It's not as straightforward as lifting the lockdown and boom, 2 weeks in we're back to normal. I think it will be a long and gradual process with oscillating freedoms

The scenario doesn't seem very likely. As far as suggestions of how to unwind lockdown have gone, it has always been discussed as a gradual process, with a foot hovering over the brake pedal.

tailwindhome

Sanders has suspended his campaign.
Biden will be the nominee.

I imagine this is a combination of no path to victory and the horrendous coverage of the voting in Wisconsin

kingstongraham

tailwindhome said:

Sanders has suspended his campaign.
Biden will be the nominee.

I imagine this is a combination of no path to victory and the horrendous coverage of the voting in Wisconsin

More the latter - he already had no path to victory. The sight of those lines for voting was ridiculous.

And here's the Wisconsin assembly speaker who made it go ahead, reassuring voters how safe it is for them to go and vote. Seriously.

https://twitter.com/JustinAHorwitz/status/1247620593387798534

rick_chasey

938 U.K. deaths today...

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

938 U.K. deaths today...

That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.

kingstongraham

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

938 U.K. deaths today...

That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total fpr the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.

Jeezus.

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

938 U.K. deaths today...

That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total for the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.

As an antidote to 'negativity' that post needs work

Stevo_666

kingstongraham said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

938 U.K. deaths today...

That probably means around 2,600 deaths in total fpr the day, as the average daily death rate in the UK pre C19 was around 1,700.

Jeezus.

Yep, my source gives the 2019 UK death rate as 9.3 per 1,000. UK population is approx. 67m which gives about 623,000 deaths per year. Divide that by 365 gives you a shade over 1,700 deaths per day.