Tour build up 2019

rick_chasey

So we have all the threads discussing who's gonna win the bloody thing, but there's more to the Tour then that (thank god).

So, who's gonna be in yellow after stage one, and how does that impact the likely jersey holders after stage two, the TTT.

Stage 3 isn't straightforward either with a cheeky cat 3 cote just before a draggy sprint and it's only really till stage 4 you get a proper flat flat sprint, given stage one is a little draggy too, and by stage five you've got a proper GvA style hilly stage, only it's got 20km of flat for the inevitable break to play silly buggers.

Then you're into Planche des Belles Filles and it's full on GC action time.

first week doesn't look too shabby therefore, considering.

mididoctors

S1..I didn't know about the cobbles till now ... Mid stage. Not the worst but not nothing... https://maps.app.goo.gl/cxvRzvyLXhCSwmrJ8all those GC teams trying to get on it. Most likely a mild cross head wind? Didn't realise the stage was so tricky. The sprint at the end is still a sprinters finish.... They should get up that.

rick_chasey

mididoctors wrote:

S1..I didn't know about the cobbles till now ... Mid stage. Not the worst but not nothing... All those GC teams trying to get on it. Most likely a mild cross head wind? Didn't realise the stage was so tricky. The sprint at the end is still a sprinters finish.... They should get up that.

The sprint is a little draggy too.

suits.....Ewan? (oh noooooo) though if it's technical i'd back Groenewegen too.

mididoctors

Rick Chasey wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

S1..I didn't know about the cobbles till now ... Mid stage. Not the worst but not nothing... All those GC teams trying to get on it. Most likely a mild cross head wind? Didn't realise the stage was so tricky. The sprint at the end is still a sprinters finish.... They should get up that.

The sprint is a little draggy too.

suits.....Ewan? (oh noooooo) though if it's technical i'd back Groenewegen too.

looks straight on the map but road book would be better. Not downloading that onto my phone.

mididoctors

I am feeling the bonus sec primes on some of these stages.. may be 8 secs is not enough?

RichN95.

PTP will go up next week. Probably on Monday.

I'll be doing all the jerseys and combativity award again

mididoctors

RichN95 wrote:

PTP will go up next week. Probably on Monday.

I'll be doing all the jerseys and combativity award again

Wckd etc... Maybe regig the green jersey and polka dot . I won them both by being right in the hills more than sprints.. Maybe no green points on mountain days ..make picking the sprints transition days more important for green.

I would have won yellow too if G hadn't deliberately sat up in the final TT .

Sticking my oar in ....

RichN95.

mididoctors wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

PTP will go up next week. Probably on Monday.

I'll be doing all the jerseys and combativity award again

Wckd etc... Maybe regig the green jersey and polka dot . I won them both by being right in the hills more than sprints.. Maybe no green points on mountain days ..make picking the sprints transition days more important for green.

I would have won yellow too if G hadn't deliberately sat up in the final TT .

Sticking my oar in ....

Maybe you were just too good. Maybe I should ban you.

I'll consider it, but I like to keep it simple (especially as I'm not unemployed like last year). I'm more inclined to rejig the KOM than the Green Jersey. I think things will naturally pan out differently this year with no obvious GC favourites.

Dorset_Boy

Is the roadbook available anywhere yet?
Will be riding the etape and staying out for the rest of the week so will catch 18, 19 & 20

blazing_saddles

Dorset Boy wrote:

Is the roadbook available anywhere yet?
Will be riding the etape and staying out for the rest of the week so will catch 18, 19 & 20

Nope. Not yet.

rick_chasey

Ignore

No_Ta_Doctor

mididoctors wrote:

S1..I didn't know about the cobbles till now ... Mid stage. Not the worst but not nothing... https://maps.app.goo.gl/cxvRzvyLXhCSwmrJ8all those GC teams trying to get on it. Most likely a mild cross head wind? Didn't realise the stage was so tricky. The sprint at the end is still a sprinters finish.... They should get up that.

Is it just me that thinks it's a touch on the insane side to put the full peloton on that on stage one?

Rest of the week.... I can see Quickstep with the yellow, possibly sharing it between them a bit. Not too shabby in a TTT.

blazing_saddles

No tA Doctor wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

S1..I didn't know about the cobbles till now ... Mid stage. Not the worst but not nothing... https://maps.app.goo.gl/cxvRzvyLXhCSwmrJ8all those GC teams trying to get on it. Most likely a mild cross head wind? Didn't realise the stage was so tricky. The sprint at the end is still a sprinters finish.... They should get up that.

Is it just me that thinks it's a touch on the insane side to put the full peloton on that on stage one?

Rest of the week.... I can see Quickstep with the yellow, possibly sharing it between them a bit. Not too shabby in a TTT.

You are correct.
The same person that told me about Dumoulin said that it is going to be full on from the gun, because the KoMs are between kms 40-50. Could be carnage and somebody's GC could be over before it's begun.

I'm unlikely to post much for the next week or so, as I'm on hols and only have the phone.
So I sure won't be doing any early stage threads. Thursday week probs.

itboffin

i just hope its not a boring as the other races so far this year

Alejandrosdog

I predict a bore fest

mididoctors

Blazing Saddles wrote:

I'm unlikely to post much for the next week or so, as I'm on hols and only have the phone.
So I sure won't be doing any early stage threads. Thursday week probs.

You up for doing them day by day during the tour proper when you return?

mididoctors

Alejandrosdog wrote:

I predict a bore fest

Maybe how's that going to come about?

Alejandrosdog

mididoctors wrote:

Alejandrosdog wrote:

I predict a bore fest

Maybe how's that going to come about?

Good question, Ineos are so strong that the race may we’ll be dead bar manufactured drama between Thomas and Bernal while everyone marks each other out in a very hilly edition. Alternatively bernal might kill everyone in the first day in the mountains.

On the other hand, one or more key Ineos riders may fall off, leaving it far wider and it could turn out to be a corker

mididoctors

Alejandrosdog wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

Alejandrosdog wrote:

I predict a bore fest

Maybe how's that going to come about?

Good question, Ineos are so strong that the race may we’ll be dead bar manufactured drama between Thomas and Bernal while everyone marks each other out in a very hilly edition. Alternatively bernal might kill everyone in the first day in the mountains.

On the other hand, one or more key Ineos riders may fall off, leaving it far wider and it could turn out to be a corker

Basically .... Boring because Ineos.

rick_chasey

I think Prudhome is pretty good at the opening week's route.

They're always pretty interesting.

It's been pretty hard to light up the GT race as the competition hasn't really been there, and perhpas there's some criticism to be levelled there (but what would you have done differently), but the Tour day-to-day is much improved over pre-2007 Tours.

mididoctors

I agree all the GTs have improved . As has cycling.

RichN95.

Teams are starting to be announced. Jumbo-Visma announced there's so long ago I think it had Freire and Menchov in it

Lotto-Soudal, Ewen, Monfort, Benoot, Keukeleire, Kluge, Wellens, De Gendt, De Buyst

poptart242

RichN95 wrote:

Teams are starting to be announced. Jumbo-Visma announced there's so long ago I think it had Freire and Menchov in it

Lotto-Soudal, Ewen, Monfort, Benoot, Keukeleire, Kluge, Wellens, De Gendt, De Buyst

Arkea announced their first six riders (whole confirmed teams have a green tick):

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/to ... /startlist

specialgueststar

Poptart242 wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Teams are starting to be announced. Jumbo-Visma announced there's so long ago I think it had Freire and Menchov in it

Lotto-Soudal, Ewen, Monfort, Benoot, Keukeleire, Kluge, Wellens, De Gendt, De Buyst

Arkea announced their first six riders (whole confirmed teams have a green tick):

https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/to ... /startlist

Glad Delaplace gets a ride - betting he's in the first break in the neutralised section? One day it will pay off

mididoctors

Don't know till you try

RichN95.

Wanty team: G.Martin, Backaert, A.De Gendt (no relation), Offredo, Van Meslen, Eiking, Meurisse, Pasqualon

Elsewhere there is talk of Simon Yates riding as well as Adam. (Maybe teams are finally cottoning on to Sky's usual tactic of taking their Giro leader to the Tour)

rick_chasey

RichN95 wrote:

Wanty team: G.Martin, Backaert, A.De Gendt (no relation), Offredo, Van Meslen, Eiking, Meurisse, Pasqualon

Elsewhere there is talk of Simon Yates riding as well as Adam. (Maybe teams are finally cottoning on to Sky's usual tactic of taking their Giro leader to the Tour)

Of all the teams, Michelton probably have the best 'all for the team' culture to actually make the best use of multiple GC threats.

Sky do do it, albeit reluctantly.

Movistar have had the talent on the bike but not in the car to do so. There are suggestions the addition of Sciandri as DS has changed that, but I think the jury's out so far.

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

Wanty team: G.Martin, Backaert, A.De Gendt (no relation), Offredo, Van Meslen, Eiking, Meurisse, Pasqualon

Elsewhere there is talk of Simon Yates riding as well as Adam. (Maybe teams are finally cottoning on to Sky's usual tactic of taking their Giro leader to the Tour)

Of all the teams, Michelton probably have the best 'all for the team' culture to actually make the best use of multiple GC threats.

Sky do do it, albeit reluctantly.

Movistar have had the talent on the bike but not in the car to do so. There are suggestions the addition of Sciandri as DS has changed that, but I think the jury's out so far.

But what Sky did for the last four years was send their best 8 or 9 riders to the Tour. No exceptions. Porte, Landa, Thomas, Froome - leaders at the Giro, but still in the Tour team. Other teams still split their top riders between the Tour & the Giro.

Again this year you won't be able to name a rider that could significantly improve Ineos, but you probably can for all the other WT teams.

rick_chasey

Yeah not disagreeing - thought you wonder whether that is cause or effect.

If you're mitchelton, you see Sky's roster for the Tour and may think "why bother, we're better off gunning for stuff elsewhere".

No_Ta_Doctor

I'm standing by my earlier prediction that for GC this is going to be relentlessly boring.
Ineos still look exceptionally strong and capable of controlling pretty much anything. They have the top two favourites for the Tour. If there's any excitement it will come from "the leadership question" between them.

The rest will be happy enough with a podium or a top ten, and won't take risks. There are no multiple GC winners who would be ready for a hail-Mary attack from distance to try and grab yellow. They'll sit in wheels and mark each other for the placings.

If I'm wrong, then my best guess is that it's Astana that try and make a race of it.

RichN95.

Rick Chasey wrote:

Yeah not disagreeing - thought you wonder whether that is cause or effect.

If you're mitchelton, you see Sky's roster for the Tour and may think "why bother, we're better off gunning for stuff elsewhere".

If that is the approach of teams, when did it start? And is it Ineos or Froome they are avoiding?

I've always found the Sky dominate/salary cap type talk a little hollow when other teams don;t turn up with their best 8. Sure, they have greater strength in depth than most, but man for man several teams can match them, Froome aside.