So who now for the Yellow Jersey ?

mididoctors

alanparsons wrote:

As well as the Yellow Jersey fight I am looking forward to the Green Jersey too.
I don't think Sagan is going to have it all his own way this year, I think Matthews and Van Aert should at least keep him on his toes, hopefully they all make it to the third week.
I reckon Ackermann is going to be the sprinter to beat, so consistent finishes and break-aways are going to be key.
At the moment I am not convinced the Cav is going to feature much this tour, I will get a better look at him next week as he is riding the UK nationals here in Norwich next Sunday.

I think Sagan has the expertise and experience to compensate. Plus he looks to be coming good just at the right time. Cav mmmnnnahhh going to be difficult .I am hoping for a miracle for cav.

sherer

Cav stated last year he hasnt been going for Green for the last few years. Stage wins only and hasnt shown the form for that due to injuries and illness. Still think he has the talent just a matter of getting back to 100 %

mididoctors

sherer wrote:

Cav stated last year he hasnt been going for Green for the last few years. Stage wins only and hasnt shown the form for that due to injuries and illness. Still think he has the talent just a matter of getting back to 100 %

just being competitive in a sprint never mind winning one stage would be good going for cav given his current form . But we hope

Dorset_Boy

How many sprints has Cav actually competed in this year?
It seems he's still struggling to get to the pointy end of sprint friendly stages, let alone competing in the sprint or seeing the podium, sadly. I think it would take something of a miracle, or a cross wind echelon split that no other sprinter makes for him to win a stage this year.

phreak

Cav has had one podium all year (in the Tour of Turkey) and two top 10s in similar level chippers.

rick_chasey

"Who said that, internet forum people? "

...still one of the best call outs, have to say.

mididoctors

Ag2r were as a team all somewhat undercooked by the "same amount " in all the races. ... Just hovering off the back of the lead group... They may hit form as a team just at the right moment in the tour.

mididoctors

Rick Chasey wrote:

"Who said that, internet forum people? "

...still one of the best call outs, have to say.

coffee break it seems...

It was a good line.

I rode with cav once. he was out in his rainbow stripes on a jolly with glendene ...
Bit fast ....

bobmcstuff

It's hard to see Cav doing anything this Tour.

Happy to be proved wrong, but it doesn't really seem likely.

josame

I'd love to see a Bernal v Landa toe to toe for the podium

m.r.m.

Landa would need to be the best climber in the world by a large margin to compensate his terrible TT ability; especially in comparison to Bernal. Hence, I personally don't get the Landa love as a GC rider. He is Purito pretty much.

blazing_saddles

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

Quite amazing Thomas touted as a natural to win - when he looked overweight earlier in the year and has done 4 stage races this year with GC: 44, dnf , 40 and 3rd and less than 3k of racing this season.

What you basing it on?

I tried to tell folks that I knew he was ready. Wasn't just because of his weight, but how relaxed he was, socially.

I guess he put that to bed, today.

daniel_b

Didn't he just. Phenomenal display of controlled power, seated throughout I think?

joey54321

Good to see G up there. I was a little worried as I'd like him to win, but he certainly put those fears to bed

gsk82

joey54321 wrote:

Good to see G up there. I was a little worried as I'd like him to win, but he certainly put those fears to bed

If bernal was really joint leader at 22, there's no way that the team would make a public declaration of it. Thomas is and always was going to be (always since froome crashed) their top guy.

mididoctors

Blazing Saddles wrote:

I tried to tell folks that I knew he was ready. Wasn't just because of his weight, but how relaxed he was, socially.

I guess he put that to bed, today.

**** Thibaut Pinot, Adam Yates, Egan Bernal
*** Mikel Landa, Alejandro Valverde, Rigoberto Uran ,
** Romain Bardet, Daniel Martin, Enric Mas, Michael Woods, Dylan Teuns
* The diesel GC boys

Which is why you rated him one star? rating teuns 2stars was more impressive.

blazing_saddles

mididoctors wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

I tried to tell folks that I knew he was ready. Wasn't just because of his weight, but how relaxed he was, socially.

I guess he put that to bed, today.

**** Thibaut Pinot, Adam Yates, Egan Bernal
*** Mikel Landa, Alejandro Valverde, Rigoberto Uran ,
** Romain Bardet, Daniel Martin, Enric Mas, Michael Woods, Dylan Teuns
* The diesel GC boys

Which is why you rated him one star? rating teuns 2stars was more impressive.

I won't be rating him much at all, unless I am absolutely and completely convinced nothing can go wrong.
Same reason that I won't pick him for any fantasy teams after I did for Switzerland!

Besides, it's favourites for the win, not 4th and 2 star Tuens beat 1 star Geraint.

Seriously, on that climb, I doubt anybody outside GT, SDB and a handful of others, saw that coming.

bobmcstuff

Blazing Saddles wrote:

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

Quite amazing Thomas touted as a natural to win - when he looked overweight earlier in the year and has done 4 stage races this year with GC: 44, dnf , 40 and 3rd and less than 3k of racing this season.

What you basing it on?

I tried to tell folks that I knew he was ready. Wasn't just because of his weight, but how relaxed he was, socially.

I guess he put that to bed, today.

Isn't this the PTP equivalent of insider trading?

gsk82

Blazing Saddles wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

I tried to tell folks that I knew he was ready. Wasn't just because of his weight, but how relaxed he was, socially.

I guess he put that to bed, today.

**** Thibaut Pinot, Adam Yates, Egan Bernal
*** Mikel Landa, Alejandro Valverde, Rigoberto Uran ,
** Romain Bardet, Daniel Martin, Enric Mas, Michael Woods, Dylan Teuns
* The diesel GC boys

Which is why you rated him one star? rating teuns 2stars was more impressive.

I won't be rating him much at all, unless I am absolutely and completely convinced nothing can go wrong.
Same reason that I won't pick him for any fantasy teams after I did for Switzerland!

Besides, it's favourites for the win, not 4th and 2 star Tuens beat 1 star Geraint.

Seriously, on that climb, I doubt anybody outside GT, SDB and a handful of others, saw that coming.

I think people were saying the same about Wiggins and Froome in 2012. It looks like these short sharp efforts favour the more powerful guys over the little uns. It's pretty much a sprint after all.

specialgueststar

Blazing Saddles wrote:

SpecialGuestStar wrote:

Quite amazing Thomas touted as a natural to win - when he looked overweight earlier in the year and has done 4 stage races this year with GC: 44, dnf , 40 and 3rd and less than 3k of racing this season.

What you basing it on?

I tried to tell folks that I knew he was ready. Wasn't just because of his weight, but how relaxed he was, socially.

I guess he put that to bed, today.

I wish Pinot would chill out a bit if that's what its all about

mididoctors

Blazing Saddles wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

Blazing Saddles wrote:

I tried to tell folks that I knew he was ready. Wasn't just because of his weight, but how relaxed he was, socially.

I guess he put that to bed, today.

**** Thibaut Pinot, Adam Yates, Egan Bernal
*** Mikel Landa, Alejandro Valverde, Rigoberto Uran ,
** Romain Bardet, Daniel Martin, Enric Mas, Michael Woods, Dylan Teuns
* The diesel GC boys

Which is why you rated him one star? rating teuns 2stars was more impressive.

I won't be rating him much at all, unless I am absolutely and completely convinced nothing can go wrong.
Same reason that I won't pick him for any fantasy teams after I did for Switzerland!

Besides, it's favourites for the win, not 4th and 2 star Tuens beat 1 star Geraint.

Seriously, on that climb, I doubt anybody outside GT, SDB and a handful of others, saw that coming.

I thought he was under raced.

DeVlaeminck

Allaphilippe's performance was impressive - what does he do now try and stay up there and maybe get yellow back...ride for GC as long as possible...ship time and go for stages and/or the polka dots?

m.r.m.

If I were him, I'd try and give the GC a serious go. He was able to easily keep up with the others on an incredibly hard stage. Maybe he will crack later, but why not see what is possible now!

r0bh

mididoctors wrote:

I thought he was under raced.

But what do you mean by this? Doing a race isn't suddenly going to give you an extra 20W on your FTP is it?

m.r.m.

Racing conditions can't be entirely simulated in training. It isn't just W/kg. It's also focus and positioning etc.

He would not gain 20W on all time max FTP, but he may gain 20W on his current condition because racing can be harder than training (depending on how hard you are able to push yourself in training). It's pretty much like climbing on your own vs. climbing alone and being overtaken and then not wanting to get dropped so going deeper than you otherwise might have done. Do that repeatedly and it's better training than riding up the hill on your own while still trying hard.

DeVlaeminck

M.R.M. wrote:

If I were him, I'd try and give the GC a serious go. He was able to easily keep up with the others on an incredibly hard stage. Maybe he will crack later, but why not see what is possible now!

I think I would too, if only to see whether a crack at GC in a GT may be a realistic aim.

mididoctors

r0bh wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

I thought he was under raced.

But what do you mean by this? Doing a race isn't suddenly going to give you an extra 20W on your FTP is it?

The variations in power demands in racing are hard to simulate. It's more repetition and endurance relative to how your rivals ride combined with being unstressed (using energy glycogen etc,) by the technical demands of being in the bunch. Inefficent Braking loss of speed etc. True a experienced rider can retain race craft knowledgeable but you still get rusty and uncurrent. It is a perishable skill ( from my own experience) .

blazing_saddles

DeVlaeminck wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

If I were him, I'd try and give the GC a serious go. He was able to easily keep up with the others on an incredibly hard stage. Maybe he will crack later, but why not see what is possible now!

I think I would too, if only to see whether a crack at GC in a GT may be a realistic aim.

He is going to crack during the succession of mountain stages, on the series of 20km climbs in this race.

DeVlaeminck

Re. Thomas I guess traditionally it was hard to train to really simulate racing in the same way I would find it hard to go out now and do 2.5 hours that would be as hard as say a lumpy LVRV or lower cat road race (alas anything more difficult would be literally impossible).

The question is how far that still applies at the top level with the modern technology and training methods especially in a well funded team like Ineos who could easily have someone following Thomas in a car "motivating" him and of course will be analysing his power files to keep on top of exactly what kind of efforts he is making, how often etc etc . It's not like perhaps in days gone by where riders might be sent away with a programme but significant opportunity to slack off.

The being comfortable in a bunch is certainly a factor but maybe not so much for someone of his experience - he's missed a bit of racing it's not like he's come back from a year out straight into the Tour.

DeVlaeminck

Blazing Saddles wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

If I were him, I'd try and give the GC a serious go. He was able to easily keep up with the others on an incredibly hard stage. Maybe he will crack later, but why not see what is possible now!

I think I would too, if only to see whether a crack at GC in a GT may be a realistic aim.

He is going to crack during the succession of mountain stages, on the series of 20km climbs in this race.

Agree, I suppose it's when and how badly that may give him encouragement to go for a grand tour or accept it's not for him. I remember there was a time Gilbert talked about attempting it but he never did - whether because his coaches told him it would not be realistic or because he would have had to give up too much for the possibility of gaining something else - much like Cav's talk of becoming a cobbled classics rider at one point.