snap general election?

rjsterry

mrfpb wrote:

Rick, do you harbour any regrets that Farron held on to his seat, thus making a new leader unlikely? Just thinking that Vince Cable and Jo Swinson returning added two much better candidates to Parliament.

Not sure at 12 seats the LibDems can be that choosy.

Pleased my MP held his seat as he works very hard for the constituency.

TheBigBean

Rick Chasey wrote:

Fair enough. I disagree.

Either way, I thought it was a wholly more classy speech than May's today, though that could be said for most speeches recently.

I dislike May. I have always disliked May. Her capability is limited to bullet dodging at best. She has just been utterly humiliated and is unlikely to last long. She's basically done the same as Sam Allardyce - dream job, one greedy mistake and going down in history as shortest holder of said dream job.

There is no one she can blame but herself. Everyone knows that. She doesn't need to tell anyone she is to blame, because no one can be so delusional to think otherwise.

In contrast, Clegg genuinely thinks he did nothing wrong. I just find that staggering and extremely irritating hence my recommendation that the Lib Dems turn him off. Now the public have done that instead.

imposter2.0

TheBigBean wrote:

In contrast, Clegg genuinely thinks he did nothing wrong. I just find that staggering and extremely irritating hence my recommendation that the Lib Dems turn him off. Now the public have done that instead.

Clegg betrayed a whole generation of students and the entire Lib Dem membership by propping up Cameron. I'm just surprised his electors didn't do this earlier.

rick_chasey

rjsterry wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

Rick, do you harbour any regrets that Farron held on to his seat, thus making a new leader unlikely? Just thinking that Vince Cable and Jo Swinson returning added two much better candidates to Parliament.

Not sure at 12 seats the LibDems can be that choosy.

Pleased my MP held his seat as he works very hard for the constituency.

So I was having a debate with a friend who;s a lib demmer. He's pleased, and says, in the circumstances, the gains are decent. 50% increase in seats despite a big swing to the big two - got unlucky with two seats (Fife & Richmond) and party membership is a record high.

I see a leader who lost most of his seats and gained different ones, and was weak on his message in an election where both Tory and Labour bosses had very high disapproval. Farron will be most remembered for going on about gay sex for a week and doing a schoolboy politics impression on telly. Other than Brexit, what was the message on what they stood for?

TheBigBean

Rick Chasey wrote:

Other than Brexit, what was the message on what they stood for?

The usual position is that they are not Labour or Tory. That policy, as you say, had a lot of potential this time as well.

Unfortunately for them, they came across as sore losers on Brexit (the main policy) which only appealed to let's say 25%-30% of the electorate (not 48%). So they were aiming for 25%-30% of the not Tory and not Labour vote which was not so big.

Plus Clegg kept talking.

kingstongraham

Imposter wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

In contrast, Clegg genuinely thinks he did nothing wrong. I just find that staggering and extremely irritating hence my recommendation that the Lib Dems turn him off. Now the public have done that instead.

Clegg betrayed a whole generation of students and the entire Lib Dem membership by propping up Cameron. I'm just surprised his electors didn't do this earlier.

I'd be amazed if he genuinely thinks he did nothing wrong.

I don't think what he did wrong was the same as you do. We already know he thinks it was wrong to make the promise to students.

If the LibDem membership didn't think he would enter into coalition talks with the largest party in the 2010 election, they hadn't been paying attention.

He screwed up his party by trying to portray a single government position on everything instead of being distinctively LibDem. And by giving up a lot for just a referendum on electoral reform. And by not sticking to the promise he wished he hadn't made.

Then they made it worse by choosing Farron.

rick_chasey

Blair aid on DUP.

I do think it’s a mistake to go into government with the “support of our friends” in the DUP. Even John Major avoided doing that and the reason he avoided that is the peace process is based on a balance that the British government has made it clear it is neutral in Northern Ireland, it doesn’t take sides. Once you have their support you are no longer neutral.

It matters for two big reasons. First, we haven’t managed to get the executive back up and running in Northern Ireland because of divisions between the two sides. The British government were trying to mediate between the two sides to get an administration up and running again and of course now it can’t possibly have that role of mediating.

And secondly I think it’s a mistake because one of the big issues in the Brexit negotiations is the border between north and south. Now the DUP is a minority in its view about Brexit, it’s in favour of Brexit. This is going to be a very real problem.

Whatever you put on a piece of paper, you’re living there with a minority government, that’s dependant on the DUP, you get to a crucial issue and then they say, ‘Remember what we want in terms of talks in Northern Ireland’, and the government has a choice: do they say, ‘We’re not giving you let, we’ll let the government collapse’, or do they just bend a little on that issue, it’s just one small issue it doesn’t matter. But beyond that the government can’t possibly be seen as neutral on Northern Ireland now if it puts itself at the mercy of the DUP.

TheBigBean

What's the alternative?

orraloon

On NI politics, the DUP and the rest, I commend to the assembly The Blame Game available on the BBC iPlayer under the Nurn Ironed category. A bit like a local version of Mock The Week. Came across by accident, watched occasionally as a bit of light diversion but with an air of detachment, thinking who are these people, never for a moment realising that the politicos ridiculed in the programme would one day come to hold the balance of power over the United(ish) Kingdom.

Strange days indeed.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean wrote:

What's the alternative?

Well Major went minority didn't he?

mrfpb

Rick Chasey wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

What's the alternative?

Well Major went minority didn't he?

Yes, depending on confidence and supply from UUP. Ended the peace process and led (indirectly) to Manchester and Canary Wharf bombings. The peace process didn't restart until there was a change of gov't.

mrfpb

Does anyone get the feeling that May spent any more time consulting with the cabinet before going to see the Queen than she did when she decided to call the election - ie, calling them around and saying "This is what I'm doing" and no further discussion. I doubt she cared about even getting a firm agreement from the DUP. I'm worried she is assuming their support, just as she assumed she would get a big majority in the GE.

mamba80

TheBigBean wrote:

What's the alternative?

the alternative would be a minority Gov and another GE, the good friday agreement relies on impartiality, a UK gov being propped up by a grouping linked to terrorism, endangers us all but since when has that stopped the Tories seeking power?

as one DUP MP said we ll soon be getting shinny new rosds schools and hospitals... from the magic money tree.... you couldnt make up.

i notice May is claiming that as she has the largest number of votes..... so a PR convert now, if she had born to more humble beginnings, she'd have been a hooker, she knows no shame.

bendertherobot

mrfpb wrote:

Does anyone get the feeling that May spent any more time consulting with the cabinet before going to see the Queen than she did when she decided to call the election - ie, calling them around and saying "This is what I'm doing" and no further discussion. I doubt she cared about even getting a firm agreement from the DUP. I'm worried she is assuming their support, just as she assumed she would get a big majority in the GE.

May have been a good plan to talk to some civil servants too to ascertain what DUP support meant in terms of any perceived neutrality, especially in the light of there being no devolved government there.

surrey_commuter

bendertherobot wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

Does anyone get the feeling that May spent any more time consulting with the cabinet before going to see the Queen than she did when she decided to call the election - ie, calling them around and saying "This is what I'm doing" and no further discussion. I doubt she cared about even getting a firm agreement from the DUP. I'm worried she is assuming their support, just as she assumed she would get a big majority in the GE.

May have been a good plan to talk to some civil servants too to ascertain what DUP support meant in terms of any perceived neutrality, especially in the light of there being no devolved government there.

no need when you have the combined wisdom of Nick and Fi

TheBigBean

Rick Chasey wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

What's the alternative?

Well Major went minority didn't he?

No he had a majority. 336 seats.

May is currently odds on to have a minority government i.e. no DUP in ministerial positions and no agreement.

Another general election or coalition are the other options, but no one is really expecting those.

tailwindhome

I suspect the DUP's first demand will be that people stop calling them Irish

bendertherobot

Oh, that's just Osbourne trolling.

Pross

I'm surprised how little has been made by the pundits of the impact on the fragile NI political situation that inviting the Unionists to the top table could cause. Also, did I hear May refer to the 'Conservative & Unionist Party'?

I think we saw how much impact UKIP had on Labour in 2015, their last votes seem to have gone more to Labour than Conservative which could explain Labour's poor showing last time.

coopster_the_1st

Pross wrote:

Also, did I hear May refer to the 'Conservative & Unionist Party'?

You did.

It's the party's official name - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)

Pross

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Pross wrote:

Also, did I hear May refer to the 'Conservative & Unionist Party'?

You did.

It's the party's official name - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conservative_Party_(UK)

Ah, makes more sense. I thought she'd managed some high speed merger deal with the DUP!

mrfpb

TheBigBean wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

What's the alternative?

Well Major went minority didn't he?

No he had a majority. 336 seats.

May is currently odds on to have a minority government i.e. no DUP in ministerial positions and no agreement.

Another general election or coalition are the other options, but no one is really expecting those.

Major's '92 majority was eroded by by-elections and having to suspend party rebels (John Redwood and co) who voted against him in a vote of no confidence. UUP (led by David Trimble) had 9 seats and agreed to back up the gov't on a confidence and supply basis. Major managed to get his final Queens speech through parliament, even in the "wash up" before the '97 election but at the cost of the NI peace process.

bendertherobot

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/ ... 2335392768

briantrumpet

bendertherobot wrote:

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/873220352335392768

Should the electorate resign?

Or should we do like May, and just carry on, as if nothing had happened??

bendertherobot

briantrumpet wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/873220352335392768

Should the electorate resign?

Or should we do like May, and just carry on, as if nothing had happened??

Sir Alan jumps in, too.

http://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/elections ... ord-sugar/

Can't wait till, in the boardroom, someone uses that line.

orraloon

briantrumpet wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/873220352335392768

Should the electorate resign?

Or should we do like May, and just carry on, as if nothing had happened??

How does it go again? Oh yes.

You lost your majority. Get over it snowflake. Or somesuch.

bendertherobot

I think we're supposed to keep going until we get the answer we want, or something.

Or it gets a bit like X Factor, yeah, we weren't keen on that Theresa. So give us the exact same stuff with Boris and that'll be a landslide.

Oh, that didn't work. How about Fallon?

No?

Umm, Davies?

Which one?

Ok. Ken Clarke, please save us (Country unites)

briantrumpet

bendertherobot wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/873220352335392768

Should the electorate resign?

Or should we do like May, and just carry on, as if nothing had happened??

Sir Alan jumps in, too.

http://www.lbc.co.uk/politics/elections ... ord-sugar/

Can't wait till, in the boardroom, someone uses that line.

At least 'Corbyn voters' had some policies to go on, whatever one's views of them, rather than empty slogans. I can only think that May thought that both the US elections and Brexit having been won with no identifiable policies (and downright lies) that it would work a third time.

kingstongraham

orraloon wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

https://twitter.com/BBCPolitics/status/873220352335392768

Should the electorate resign?

Or should we do like May, and just carry on, as if nothing had happened??

How does it go again? Oh yes.

You lost your majority. Get over it snowflake. Or somesuch.

Indeed. Snowflake alert.

rick_chasey

Still boggled at how she didn't thank anyone in her speech.

Had to cobble together a message after she presumably was berated behind closed doors.