snap general election?

rick_chasey

It is odd how quickly she rushed into the announcement regarding the DUP.

I mean, what was the hurry? The deadline would have been the Brexit negotiations but they weren't for another week.

It all smacks of rushing into things and that seems desperate.


Some commentators have been saying May is only really good when she can just command & control and press something through, and only then when she is prepped.

David Allen Green has pinned his theory if you're interested.

Also her experience of the EU as home office leader illustrates her atttiude to Brexit. In that role all she does is opt in and out of different issues; not the same across rest of the spectrum.

Would explain the contents of that German dinner which got leaked.

The concern now is she has no authority but a leadership campaign would take 3 months which the Uk doesn't have for Brexit so will the UK stumble on?

Tories are a f*cking mess and have totally f@cked this. I would like to know what their plan is to solve it. I suspect hard Brexiters can live with it - at this rate they'll be bounced into a no deal when the clock runs out.

It is ironic how hot they were on attacking Corbyn regarding the IRA but have had a total myopic brain fart on the balance of power as it is now in NI.

She clearly can't handle the breadth of the role. Life's come at her too quick as PM.

rick_chasey

Even if they back out of DUP it'll be harder for gov't to broker in the future.

kingstongraham

Slowmart wrote:

The DUP are are the western equivalent of the Taliban, the only question is which organisation has the more tolerant approach to women and individual freedoms.

Yes, I remember when the Taliban were led by Mullah Arlene.

briantrumpet

Rick Chasey wrote:

Tories are a f*cking mess and have totally f@cked this. I would like to know what their plan is to solve it. I suspect hard Brexiters can live with it - at this rate they'll be bounced into a no deal when the clock runs out.

She clearly can't handle the breadth of the role. Life's come at her too quick as PM.

The parallels with Trump are uncanny at this point: Bannon & ilk as happy for Trump to crash the US constitution as the Brexit loons are for May & Art50 discussions to fail - the end result is a crash and burn scenario at the end of which they hope for a regrouping round viscious free market fallout. Both of them are out of their depth, mouthing empty platitudes.

ugo.santalucia

Rick Chasey wrote:

Some commentators have been saying May is only really good when she can just command & control and press something through, and only then when she is prepped.

So true

rick_chasey

I would love if the Lib Dems stepped up and offered support on serious soft Brexit caveats, but alas.

kingstongraham

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Lifestyle, are we living beyond our means? Yes... look at the number of 30 grand plus cars on the roads... virtually every other car is a JLR/Mercedes/BMW/Audi.

Services: of course we can afford better services, we just have to pay more in tax and less in luxury cars

It's very simple really...

80% or so are now leased rather than bought. This could be the next financial disaster. It's an example of living beyond our means.

shortfall

KingstonGraham wrote:

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Lifestyle, are we living beyond our means? Yes... look at the number of 30 grand plus cars on the roads... virtually every other car is a JLR/Mercedes/BMW/Audi.

Services: of course we can afford better services, we just have to pay more in tax and less in luxury cars

It's very simple really...

80% or so are now leased rather than bought. This could be the next financial disaster. It's an example of living beyond our means.

It's the next sub prime mortgage disaster waiting to happen. It might not be quite as disastrous but when the next recession or GFC hits as it most certainly will, all those car finance payments will still have to be met and you won't be able to give your car away let alone sell it because the @rse will have fallen out of the market due to over supply and no demand. Most of the western economies have for years worked on a system of rolling over the debt and relying on financial growth and inflation to take up the slack. It's sort of worked for the baby boomer generation but all those bills are due eventually and the current and future generations are standing behind them. The current phase of printing funny money (QE) can't put off the inevitable forever and I fear we're in for a big adjustment.

rjsterry

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Shortfall wrote:

I think all the main parties have had it to be honest because people are just fed up to the back teeth of being repeatedly lied to. I guess it's always been so but for me the Blair years ushered in new level of cynicism where political principles were abandoned in the pursuit of power. The Cameron years were just an extension of that, saying or doing anything that will appeal to the so called middle ground in the hope that there's enough votes to be had there to win a majority. I'll say this about Corbyn, he may be an absolute idiot but he's an honest idiot. He says what he believes in and in the case of the EU and Trident which he was opposed to all his political life, he was overruled by his own party and was bound by their collective decisions on these things rightly or wrongly. I think people admired this in him, particularly the young voters who don't remember the 70s and what happened the last time his free unicorns for everyone economic policies were enacted. The elephant in the room is that whoever is in power has a 1.7 trillion government debt (and rising) to service which is the real reason for cuts to public services. I personally think we are going to have to wake up to the fact that we are in national decline and can no longer afford the standard of living and services we have become accustomed to. The truth of it is we have been living beyond our means for some considerable time and I don't see any of the parties offering up any realistic policies to reverse this.

Lifestyle, are we living beyond our means? Yes... look at the number of 30 grand plus cars on the roads... virtually every other car is a JLR/Mercedes/BMW/Audi.

Services: of course we can afford better services, we just have to pay more in tax and less in luxury cars

It's very simple really...

Not sure where you live these days, but even in the leafy outskirts of South London, that's really not the case. Maybe in wealthier boroughs like Richmond, where median earnings are around £43K, but then that's not really surprising.

bendertherobot

Very quick return there for Gavin Barwell (Now Chief of Staff)

ugo.santalucia

I live in JLR land, but if I go elsewhere it's not much different... I am sure it is in Aberystwyth, I will tell you in a couple of weeks...

BelgianBeerGeek

Veronese68 wrote:

So the Tories in their desperation to cling onto power initially offered a referendum on EU membership to placate the 'kipper types. Then, having lost that we had to put up with a load of their infighting during which they were happily stabbing each other in the back as they each attempted to further their own careers. Eventually one that saw herself as the supreme leader came out on top. She has flip flopped repeatedly whilst claiming to be strong and stable. Then, having triggered article 50 and with a seemingly unassailable lead she called an election she said she wouldn't. After saying a few stupid things she hid from anyone that would question her authority. Meanwhile the unelectable leader of the opposition gained ground. So she has now thrown away her majority and sounded a load of money in the process, yet she claims she is the only one fit to lead us in negotiations they haven't given more than a cursory thought to,
So, in a time when the government really should have been preparing for what will be complex negotiations with the EU they have been doing nothing but attempting to feather their own nests. Now as a result they have had to team up with a vile bunch of extremists that make Trumps lot seem reasonable. Plus, to make matter worse we are going to have to put up with more infighting and backstabbing over the next few weeks, possibly with another election at the end of it. It's a total fcuking shambles and I have no idea how anyone can justify it. I am truly appalled.
Meanwhile the article 50 clock keeps ticking. They are a disgrace.

Stop sitting on the fence, V68, tell us what you really think...

kingstongraham

Just a small point, but if you think they make Trump's lot look reasonable, may I point you in the direction of Jefferson Beauregard Sessions. Or even the VP.

verylonglegs

I've been reading all day various sources from the Conservative side angry with May about how bad the manifesto was but even during this post-mortem I'm still not actually sure what it was, it's news me to they had one quite frankly. I say that as someone who lives in what was a major Conservative target, North Norfolk. I had more literature through my door than all previous elections combined from the Tories but none of it ever mentioned any policies. At least two thirds of it didn't even mention the local Conservative candidates name, all carrying the same message that Theresa May needs my vote for Brexit with some not so thinly veiled be a patriot and vote for her nonsense. They managed to plaster both sides of an A4 sheet with slogans and not a single detail on any of it. Woeful and deservedly rejected in these parts.

FocusZing

The Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) has agreed in principle a "confidence and supply" deal to support a Conservative government, it has been announced.
Theresa May was left eight seats short of an overall majority in the general election, while the DUP won 10 seats.
Tory chief whip Gavin Williamson went to Belfast on Saturday for talks with the Northern Irish party.
Downing Street said the of the outline deal details would be discussed at a cabinet meeting on Monday.
Any agreement would come into force when Parliament returns next week.
A "confidence and supply" deal is not a full coalition, but an agreement which sees the smaller party support the larger one in votes it might otherwise lose, like a budget.
A No 10 spokesman said: "We welcome this commitment, which can provide the stability and certainty the whole country requires as we embark on Brexit and beyond."

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40236152

mamba80

a pity they arent so keen to tell us what the DUP get in return

orraloon

So, sez he going here, what do you think happens first?

a) the next General Election.
b) announcement of resumption of hostilities by IRA.

Guess depends on just how much the proddies screw out of May.

tailwindhome

There are few things that the DUP want which would be within the gift of the Conservative Government to provide

Money

Money to insulate Northern Ireland from the disastrous effects of the Brexit vote they supported, without the need for Northern Ireland to have any sort of special status which would separate it from the rest of the UK

A guarantee that the British Government will block a border poll

Something to give the supporters with regard to investigation into possible crimes by British troops/Security forces

mamba80

TailWindHome wrote:

There are few things that the DUP want which would be within the gift of the Conservative Government to provide

Money

Money to insulate Northern Ireland from the disastrous effects of the Brexit vote they supported, without the need for Northern Ireland to have any sort of special status which would separate it from the rest of the UK

A guarantee that the British Government will block a border poll

Something to give the supporters with regard to investigation into possible crimes by British troops/Security forces

i might be missing something here but i thought there wasnt a magic money tree or at least not a Labour one lol .... the tories are thick, the electorate will crucify them for this....probably.

rick_chasey

TailWindHome wrote:

There are few things that the DUP want which would be within the gift of the Conservative Government to provide

Money

Money to insulate Northern Ireland from the disastrous effects of the Brexit vote they supported, without the need for Northern Ireland to have any sort of special status which would separate it from the rest of the UK

A guarantee that the British Government will block a border poll

Something to give the supporters with regard to investigation into possible crimes by British troops/Security forces

There is also how Brexit is done in NI re borders - don't they have quiet rigid views on this?

briantrumpet

Interesting to see the Telegraph not beong overly enthusiastic about the DUP tie-up, pointing out their links with cranky ideas and paramilitaries. Also giving continued column inches to Christopher Booker, who thinks that Scottish Tories could scupper a hard Brexit, and they haven't taken down their own report carrying the same notion, despite Ruth Davidson having denied it.

meanredspider

I'm loving all of this support for democracy

Anybody who supports PR, in particular, can't really complain because this is exactly the sort of things you get.

mamba80

meanredspider wrote:

I'm loving all of this support for democracy

Anybody who supports PR, in particular, can't really complain because this is exactly the sort of things you get.

uh? what exactly is democratic about being governed by a party who few on the mainland have ever heard of ? let alone have any idea of their manifesto or history, the DUP were nt on any english etc ballot paper.

as R4 said in Profile (of Arlene foster) she now the most powerful woman in the UK....

PR applied to the result on friday wouldnt have given the tories 60 plus more MPs than Labour with only 2% extra of the vote, so you r wrong.

i love the way the right wing press refer to the dup links to paramilitaries but Corbyn is associated with terrorists :roll:

rick_chasey

meanredspider wrote:

I'm loving all of this support for democracy

Anybody who supports PR, in particular, can't really complain because this is exactly the sort of things you get.

Er no, it's not.

meanredspider

mamba80 wrote:

meanredspider wrote:

I'm loving all of this support for democracy

Anybody who supports PR, in particular, can't really complain because this is exactly the sort of things you get.

uh? what exactly is democratic about being governed by a party who few on the mainland have ever heard of ? let alone have any idea of their manifesto or history, the DUP were nt on any english etc ballot paper.

as R4 said in Profile (of Arlene foster) she now the most powerful woman in the UK....

PR applied to the result on friday wouldnt have given the tories 60 plus more MPs than Labour with only 2% extra of the vote, so you r wrong.

i love the way the right wing press refer to the dup links to paramilitaries but Corbyn is associated with terrorists :roll:

Them's the rules. Suck it up.

You've misunderstood my PR point. Many (most?) countries that run PR are uncomfortable alliances of factions with minorities holding the balance of power. So I r [sic] not wrong.

And how was Corbyn hoping to form a minority government without forming alliances with minorities? Unfortunately that's how (our) democracy works. Just because you might not like who the folk in N Ireland legitimately voted for, I'm afraid, is the price you pay for democracy. Whinging about it now is a bit rich.

I said I didn't think democracy was serving us very well. No-one much agreed. This is just a case in point.

kingstongraham

meanredspider wrote:

I'm loving all of this support for democracy

Anybody who supports PR, in particular, can't really complain because this is exactly the sort of things you get.

If one nasty party wants to get the support of another, then that's just politics. People objecting to their views is beside the point. If it results in destabilising a devolved part of the UK, then probably less so.


This makes sense to me: https://twitter.com/jackbern23/status/8 ... 01509?s=09

meanredspider

Rick Chasey wrote:

meanredspider wrote:

I'm loving all of this support for democracy

Anybody who supports PR, in particular, can't really complain because this is exactly the sort of things you get.

Er no, it's not.

Of course it is. PR would almost never give anyone an overall majority. So governments are formed by alliances which inevitably have the balance of power disproportionately held by minorities.

mamba80

meanredspider wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

meanredspider wrote:

I'm loving all of this support for democracy

Anybody who supports PR, in particular, can't really complain because this is exactly the sort of things you get.

Er no, it's not.

Of course it is. PR would almost never give anyone an overall majority. So governments are formed by alliances which inevitably have the balance of power disproportionately held by minorities.

So we d now have a coalition of lab/lib/greens and/or snp/PC ? though how regional devolved areas would fit in i m not sure?
but as i said, we d have all had a chance to vote for them dependant on the exact type of PR.

i dont think you seem to realise how finely balanced the situation in NI is, its not that May is seeking a coalition/agreement (thats totally understandable) its who it is with and where they are based.

meanredspider

mamba80 wrote:

So we d now have a coalition of lab/lib/greens and/or snp/PC ? though how regional devolved areas would fit in i m not sure?
but as i said, we d have all had a chance to vote for them dependant on the exact type of PR.

i dont think you seem to realise how finely balanced the situation in NI is, its not that May is seeking a coalition/agreement (thats totally understandable) its who it is with and where they are based.

I don't know what we'd have. The Lib Dems are unlikely to form a coalition with anyone after the last time.

I understand exactly what the situation is in N Ireland.

NOTHING in what I've said indicates I'm happy with what is happening and I'm not a "right" as you seemed to indicate in the post you deleted. Before this election result, what I said is that I don't think our current form of democracy is serving us very well - not many people agreed. But now we have this result - which is totally fair under the rules - everyone's complaining about it.

briantrumpet

KingstonGraham wrote:

.
This makes sense to me: https://twitter.com/jackbern23/status/8 ... 01509?s=09

That is an excellent thread. Buried in there is the suggestion that May will be contravening the Good Friday Agreement by going into bed with the DUP and not being neutral. Would be an interesting legal challenge...