Paris Roubaix 2017 -*SPOILERS*

RichN95.

ddraver wrote:

Hey look boys, a child wrote a school project about it

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sport/cycling/ ... the-north/

Still, it's more race coverage than you'll get from The Guardian these days (unless the Sky doctor buys some aspirin)

andyrac

The Guardian's cycling coverage is just a joke - nothing but bashing of the sport, and 'puff pieces' from ignorant writers.

rick_chasey

https://cyclingtips.com/news/more-bad-l ... con-crash/

Lotto have some back luck.

Crashed whilst doing a PR recon.

On_What

Milton50 wrote:

Bets are on:

e/w on Rowe at 33/1
e/w on Stybar at 22/1

and a free £5 on Boonen at 5/1

I managed to get Boonen when he was 9/1, and threw a cheeky E/W at Stannard at 16/1

courtmed

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

OnYourRight wrote:

I haven’t noticed anything consistent, but maybe he rides too near the front – thus improving his odds of being in a good break but also guaranteeing he’ll be tired.

Meanwhile, Phinney is out. He had emotional ups and downs on a training ride yesterday. Yeah.

Maybe Cannondale-Drapac should just fly home.

Ah don't knock him for feeling weird as a result of a concussion.

The mind is still very mysterious. It was a big ol' smash.

Yep. He's had a concussion before, and it's a big risk to ride whilst suffering the effects, even without the feeling like crap element. Only sensible option really.

Definitely this. Concussions are still a relative mystery, although they're being researched a lot and becoming more talked about due to the NFL, rugby etc. I've had more than my fair share & it is something I worry about. Glad they're erring on the side of caution here.

milton50

On_What wrote:

Milton50 wrote:

Bets are on:

e/w on Rowe at 33/1
e/w on Stybar at 22/1

and a free £5 on Boonen at 5/1

I managed to get Boonen when he was 9/1, and threw a cheeky E/W at Stannard at 16/1

9/1 for Boonen? Was this before Flanders?

On_What

Yes it was!

bobmcstuff

I am practically wetting myself with excitement for this now!

http://inrng.com/2017/04/paris-roubaix-2017-preview/

Inrng favours GvA giving him 4*, with no 5* picks (fair enough), then Sagan/Boonen/Kristoff on the next rung.

Also gives a lower wind forecast than I've seen elsewhere?

onyourright

Weather forecasts are always wrong so I welcome calm forecasts.

rick_chasey

Kristoff is not the same star favourite rating as Boonen.

No way.

Even in the best form of his life he can't follow the race when it really gets tough.

Boonen can still bend the race to his will from 95km out on crap legs.

rick_chasey

I'll make my own star rating. It's essentially a qualitative take on current form (as judged by ToF) and how Rick Chasey thinks they're more or less suited to P-R, since, in my mind, there's a definite difference between the races; bigger than most pundits account for.

So, let's take the rough top 20 in Flanders. Your top favourites will basically have to be there to be in with a shout on Sunday.

1 Philippe Gilbert (Bel) Quick-Step Floors 6:23:45
2 Greg Van Avermaet (Bel) BMC Racing Team 0:00:29
3 Niki Terpstra (Ned) Quick-Step Floors
4 Dylan Van Baarle (Ned) Cannondale-Drapac
5 Alexander Kristoff (Nor) Katusha-Alpecin 0:00:53
6 Sacha Modolo (Ita) Team UAE Emirates
7 John Degenkolb (Ger) Trek-Segafredo
8 Filippo Pozzato (Ita) Wilier Triestina
9 Sylvain Chavanel (Fra) Direct Energie
10 Sonny Colbrelli (Ita) Bahrain-Merida
11 Michael Valgren Andersen (Den) Astana Pro Team
12 Luke Durbridge (Aus) Orica-Scott
13 Matteo Trentin (Ita) Quick-Step Floors
14 Yoann Offredo (Fra) Wanty - Groupe Gobert
15 Gianni Moscon (Ita) Team Sky
16 Scott Thwaites (GBr) Dimension Data
17 Tony Gallopin (Fra) Lotto Soudal
18 Nelson Oliveira (Por) Movistar Team
19 Fabio Felline (Ita) Trek-Segafredo 0:01:01
20 André Greipel (Ger) Lotto Soudal 0:02:29
21 Baptiste Planckaert (Bel) Katusha-Alpecin
22 Edvald Boasson Hagen (Nor) Dimension Data
23 Oliver Naesen (Bel) AG2R La Mondiale 0:02:32

So of those, riders who I think do better in Roubaix than Flanders
DvB, Degenkolb, Pozzato, Durbridge, EBH, Terpstra.

So we can say Degenkolb is a what, 3 star favourite? He's won it before, he goes well in PR, he's tactically smart, has a decent teammate in Stuyven and a broader decent team.

Pozzato - let's face it, he's top 10, top 5 at best. He can switch off if the race doesn't turn to him, which is not the best PR approach. one star.

Durbridge? Ja, but too young and a crap team. one star.

EBH? - might be there or there abouts. Basically a one man, less good Sagan show. 2 star.

Terpstra. Goes well, never quite has the punch to follow when the biggest hitters go, but is a decent 2nd row guy and has the likes of Boonen etc as an ace in the hole. 1 star.

Then we get to the top form riders who don't go quite as well in PR: GvA, Sagan, Trentin, Naesen.

GvA? He's been in toppish form before but only tends to do well when bigger groups come to the finish - if it's really selective in Roubaix he struggles, and current form suggests this race will be selective. 3 stars.

Sagan? He clearly has it in him to win, but he clearly finds Flanders easier than PR. His highest finish in PR is 11th.
He would need an unselective race to do well, and then it's more of a lottery and his advantages are significantly reduced 'cos his team is budget.3 stars.

Trentin?
I think PR is a stretch for him. He follows the action in Flanders, so count him out.

Naesen? Don't think he's ridden PR before, but doesn't strike me as a natural bedfellow for him. 1 star.

Then we have Boonen, who would have made the top 20 save for his mechanical.
He came 2nd in a very selective race with bad legs last year, and time and again PR SIGNIFICANTLY suits him better than ToF, so he's got to be the top favourite.

4 starts.

no five stars.

ic.

I'm getting more than a little excited by this now. I was on Kwaremont on Sunday for ToF and have to say, Sagan looked eaaaaaasy close up. Not blowing at all when others were pulling all sorts of faces. Boonen too, he was looking really really good before his mechanical. Rowe was losing red stuff from everywhere the last time I saw him, so a top 10 would be a good result for him, considering injuries.

I'm hoping for a great race and a great win for Boonen, but my head says Sagan will win this year.

dish_dash

IC. wrote:

I'm getting more than a little excited by this now. I was on Kwaremont on Sunday for ToF and have to say, Sagan looked eaaaaaasy close up. Not blowing at all when others were pulling all sorts of faces. Boonen too, he was looking really really good before his mechanical. Rowe was losing red stuff from everywhere the last time I saw him, so a top 10 would be a good result for him, considering injuries.

I'm hoping for a great race and a great win for Boonen, but my head says Sagan will win this year.

Just remember how Sagan looked at the Ronde last year...

dish_dash

bobmcstuff wrote:

Last year's Orica Backstage Pass from P-R:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zxnA4asj44

I've watched it loads of times since last year... I know some of you don't like Backstage Pass but

I confess that when I watched this last year I thought they went a bit OTT, but just watched it over lunch and it is great!

dish_dash

Rick, think you're underestimating Kristoff... agree not Boonen level but I'd have him on 2 stars.

And given you think he'll do better at PR than the Ronde, how many stars for DvB?

rick_chasey

dish_dash wrote:

Rick, think you're underestimating Kristoff... agree not Boonen level but I'd have him on 2 stars.

And given you think he'll do better at PR than the Ronde, how many stars for DvB?

One possibly zero.

I'll take a bet with you Kristoff doesn't make top 5...

milton50

Right, I'll join in with the star ratings. And if you read my forecasts concerning Gilbert before Flanders you'll know that my opinions mean very little.

5 Star - None for Paris-Roubaix as there is too much randomness involved
4 Star
Boonen - Looked in good shape last weekend, 4 time winner, knows the race inside out, and can win from distance or a reduced group.
John Degenkolb - Put in a good performance in Flanders and is usually better at Roubaix, won the race and has come second before, probably the best sprinter out of the favourites
3 Star
Peter Sagan - Has been in good form this year if not on fire, probably would have got a podium last weekend, but doesn't seem to perform as well in this race.
Van Avermaet - Really strong this year, been on the podium before, but probably harder for him to win compared to Flanders
2 Star
Kristoff - Strong rider, finishes well in hard races, but hasn't really come close to winning so far
Stybar - Been close a couple of times before, good bike handler, decent finish
Terpstra - Strong rider, won before, but unlikely to win from a sprint so needs the race to go his way

Won't name 1 stars because there are more than 10.

dish_dash

Rick Chasey wrote:

dish_dash wrote:

Rick, think you're underestimating Kristoff... agree not Boonen level but I'd have him on 2 stars.

And given you think he'll do better at PR than the Ronde, how many stars for DvB?

One possibly zero.

I'll take a bet with you Kristoff doesn't make top 5...

yeah, sure, a beer after Easter... I don't put hard cash on the table

In my view Boonen the favourite but the dream rarely comes true... got a feeling about Degenkolb and EBH... would like to see Kristoff win... it'll probably end up being Terpstra again.

rick_chasey

dish_dash wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

dish_dash wrote:

Rick, think you're underestimating Kristoff... agree not Boonen level but I'd have him on 2 stars.

And given you think he'll do better at PR than the Ronde, how many stars for DvB?

One possibly zero.

I'll take a bet with you Kristoff doesn't make top 5...

yeah, sure, a beer after Easter... I don't put hard cash on the table

Done.

bobmcstuff

I think GvA is going to go better than suggested above. At Flanders he crashed and then managed to come back within 30s of Gilbert, while doing most of the work - implacable riding and just the kind of thing that works at P-R.

I don't know about Boonen. If he gets away with the right group then yeah, but say it was Boonen-Sagan-GvA at the end - I don't think he'd take it.

Mad_Malx

Just watched 2016 highlights on ES. Still looked like it was going to be Boonen's but Hayman won because he had the most left at the end.

inseine

Rich;

Sagan? He clearly has it in him to win, but he clearly finds Flanders easier than PR. His highest finish in PR is 11th.

6th

inseine

Amazing if Moscon wins but I'm surprised he's mentioned and not Rowe or Stannard, though I realize they've both been a bit quiet.

Garry H

Mad_Malx wrote:

Just watched 2016 highlights on ES. Still looked like it was going to be Boonen's but Hayman won because he had the most left at the end.

Did same and, with the power of hindsight, saw what an incredibly clever final 4Ks or so he rode. He won becuse none of the others thought he could. If that makes sense. Cunning, like a fox.

inseine

inseine wrote:

Amazing if Moscon wins but I'm surprised he's mentioned and not Rowe or Stannard, though I realize they've both been a bit quiet.

And are now joined by Viviani.

bobmcstuff

dish_dash wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Last year's Orica Backstage Pass from P-R:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8zxnA4asj44

I've watched it loads of times since last year... I know some of you don't like Backstage Pass but

I confess that when I watched this last year I thought they went a bit OTT, but just watched it over lunch and it is great!

Genuinely makes me a bit emotional!

I was really catastrophically hungover for PR last year (Brewdog AGM...), the last 50k of that race brought me back from the dead.

There's a Zwift Stories one about it as well which is similar but a bit less OTT.

RichN95.

bobmcstuff wrote:

Genuinely makes me a bit emotional!

I was really catastrophically hungover for PR last year (Brewdog AGM...), the last 50k of that race brought me back from the dead.

There's a Zwift Stories one about it as well which is similar but a bit less OTT.

Also worth a listen is Mitch Docker's podcast were he interviews Hayman before and after the race. The after is about a month after as Docker had a bad crash in the race, but the before is the night before. And the last five minutes are quite wonderful - a old pro looking back at 'could have been' moments, knowing that his chances have probably gone, but just can't stop dreaming.

www.lifeinthepeloton.com

RichN95.

My bets for Sunday:
Debusschere to beat EBH 7/4
Ladagnous to beat Thwaites 11/10
GVA to beat Boonen 6/5
Naesen Each Way 25/1

I'm also on One for Arthur and Vicente for the National

NervexProf

Zwift video here https://community.zwift.com/?utm_source ... ft-stories

slim_boy_fat

Start delayed until 11.15am due to forecast tailwind.