Paris Roubaix 2017 -*SPOILERS*

TheBigBean

bobmcstuff wrote:

Surely that overstates Degenkolb's chances?

He finished 7th in Flanders in both 2015 and 2017.

Any update on Sep?

ContrelaMontre

bobmcstuff wrote:

Paddypower currently has:
Sagan 11/4
Boonen 5/1
Degenkolb 6/1 (really??)
GVA 10/1
Terpstra/Vanmarke/Stannard 16/1
Kristoff/EBH 18/1

Surely that overstates Degenkolb's chances?

Understates 2015 winner Degenkolb's chances who missed 2016's race through injury and just finished 7th in RVV?

bobmcstuff

ContrelaMontre wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Paddypower currently has:
Sagan 11/4
Boonen 5/1
Degenkolb 6/1 (really??)
GVA 10/1
Terpstra/Vanmarke/Stannard 16/1
Kristoff/EBH 18/1

Surely that overstates Degenkolb's chances?

Understates 2015 winner Degenkolb's chances who missed 2016's race through injury and just finished 7th in RVV?

Yes, ok that's me told

Must admit I hadn't really noted his performance this year.

bobmcstuff

r0bh wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Paddypower currently has:
Sagan 11/4
Boonen 5/1
Degenkolb 6/1 (really??)
GVA 10/1
Terpstra/Vanmarke/Stannard 16/1
Kristoff/EBH 18/1

Surely that overstates Degenkolb's chances?

I think that overstates Sagan's chances too!

Betting markets often do that because the odds are a function of the number of bets placed and Sagan is probably the most high profile rider at the moment.

milton50

Damn it! I thought I was the only one to have noticed that Degenkolb looks in good shape and that I was going to scoop PTP.

TheBigBean

If that were always true people would statistically arbitrage it. They might be doing that, but I think the betting bots are a bit more sophisticated than shorting the favourite.

nickice

Vino'sGhost wrote:

Id like to see Luke Rowe win one day

If only..Stannard and Rowe are a bit behind at least 5 other riders so I'd be surprised if either ever wins Roubaix, though it's probably the one race that they could win as it tends to throw up surprises quite often. Stannard's best chance will probably end up being last year.

RichN95.

bobmcstuff wrote:

Surely that overstates Degenkolb's chances?

Seems about right. Past winner and in decent form (RVV 7th, G-W 5th, M-SR 7th)

DeVlaeminck

Milton50 wrote:

Hmm. Not a great comment from a legend.

No but I suppose the sentiment is positive it's just the choice of words is not ideal. Not dismissing the importance of language in reinforcing norms but sometimes words can get jumped on while less acceptable beliefs couched in more carefully chosen language get a free pass.

In short I like Sean Kelly so I'm going to ignore it.

bobmcstuff

TheBigBean wrote:

If that were always true people would statistically arbitrage it. They might be doing that, but I think the betting bots are a bit more sophisticated than shorting the favourite.

I'm sure it's a bit smarter than that. But it certainly does seem to be the case that the best known participant gets shorter odds than you might expect (who's not always the race favourite per pundits, Inrng or on here etc - remember a lot of the people placing bets don't really know the market).

If lots of people go and stick money on a rider their odds will change, regardless whether or not they actually have a better chance of winning. The assumption is that if lots of people are putting money on its because they have a good chance of winning (which obviously isn't always true)

If none of that had any truth then we wouldn't be having discussions about whether odds were sensible or not.

DeVlaeminck

r0bh wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

Paddypower currently has:
Sagan 11/4
Boonen 5/1
Degenkolb 6/1 (really??)
GVA 10/1
Terpstra/Vanmarke/Stannard 16/1
Kristoff/EBH 18/1

Surely that overstates Degenkolb's chances?

I think that overstates Sagan's chances too!

Absolutely. I suppose they have Sagan over GvA because of his sprint. Kristofer at 18s looks OK - I forget how he goes on cobbles though. No Stybar or Gilbert in there - you'd think Quickstep will send someone on a long one again if they can - I' m assuming both are riding suppose Gilbert may not be.

dish_dash

Last update on Sep was severe road rash and a broken pinky finger. As of Monday his race schedule was TBD after further medicals.... I'd very much doubt that he makes it to the start line which is a massive shame.

Kristoff in with a better shout from my men...

TheBigBean

dish_dash wrote:

Last update on Sep was severe road rash and a broken pinky finger. As of Monday his race schedule was TBD after further medicals.... I'd very much doubt that he makes it to the start line which is a massive shame.

Kristoff in with a better shout from my men...

Thanks for the update, and that's no consolation.

Vino'sGhost

dish_dash wrote:

Last update on Sep was severe road rash and a broken pinky finger. As of Monday his race schedule was TBD after further medicals.... I'd very much doubt that he makes it to the start line which is a massive shame.

Kristoff in with a better shout from my men...[/quote

That is a total shame for Sep. It was interesting to see jus T show many of his team mates were still up near the front when Sep crashed out. Id like to see Cannondale win something and theres nothing better than this

dish_dash

For the Cannondale fans, the word was that Phinney had minor concussion after his spill at RVV but that he might make it to PR. So that could be your great hope!

takethehighroad

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Milton50 wrote:

Hmm. Not a great comment from a legend.

No but I suppose the sentiment is positive it's just the choice of words is not ideal. Not dismissing the importance of language in reinforcing norms but sometimes words can get jumped on while less acceptable beliefs couched in more carefully chosen language get a free pass.

In short I like Sean Kelly so I'm going to ignore it.

This, really.

I'm calling it now, Sagan will never win Paris Roubaix

rick_chasey

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

I'm calling it now, Sagan will never win Paris Roubaix

Alright, get in line.

ridgerider

TakeTheHighRoad wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Milton50 wrote:

Hmm. Not a great comment from a legend.

No but I suppose the sentiment is positive it's just the choice of words is not ideal. Not dismissing the importance of language in reinforcing norms but sometimes words can get jumped on while less acceptable beliefs couched in more carefully chosen language get a free pass.

In short I like Sean Kelly so I'm going to ignore it.

This, really.

Just give him a slap!

itboffin

heart is with a Boonen win but I suspect a relatively unknown might snatch it on the day

Vino'sGhost

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Milton50 wrote:

Hmm. Not a great comment from a legend.

No but I suppose the sentiment is positive it's just the choice of words is not ideal. Not dismissing the importance of language in reinforcing norms but sometimes words can get jumped on while less acceptable beliefs couched in more carefully chosen language get a free pass.

In short I like Sean Kelly so I'm going to ignore it.

Good comment.

RichN95.

Through the Keyhole, cycling edition. Who lives in a house like this (it can really only be one person)

dish_dash

RichN95 wrote:

Through the Keyhole, cycling edition. Who lives in a house like this (it can really only be one person)

Looks Fab!

Richmond Racer 2

I'd say Fab...but no pictures of Fab, so that's throwing me

blazing_saddles

RichN95 wrote:

Through the Keyhole, cycling edition. Who lives in a house like this (it can really only be one person)

Barney Rubble's?

RichN95.

Who else could it have been?

rick_chasey

Lad behaviour

Mad_Malx

That one on the left looks huge - is it the perspective?

No_Ta_Doctor

dish_dash wrote:

For the Cannondale fans, the word was that Phinney had minor concussion after his spill at RVV but that he might make it to PR. So that could be your great hope!

Wait, there are Cannondale fans? :shock:

RichN95.

No tA Doctor wrote:

dish_dash wrote:

For the Cannondale fans, the word was that Phinney had minor concussion after his spill at RVV but that he might make it to PR. So that could be your great hope!

Wait, there are Cannondale fans? :shock:

Vaughters used to be one, but he doesn't seem all that bothered these days now the US Postal crew have gone.

lettingthedaysgoby

dish_dash wrote:

Last update on Sep was severe road rash and a broken pinky finger. As of Monday his race schedule was TBD after further medicals.... I'd very much doubt that he makes it to the start line which is a massive shame.

The thought of hammering over those cobbles with a broken finger... Ouch