Milan San Remo 2017 - Spoilers

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  • gsk82
    gsk82 Posts: 3,620
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    NorvernRob wrote:
    AK_jnr wrote:
    The Kwiato bashing on the comments on various cycling news pages is ridiculous. This was literally no different to the thousands of breakaway finishes that have gone before it, but because its Sagan people lose their minds.

    I was going to post pretty much the same thing. The world is full of idiots, apparently Kwia is a 'wheelsucker' (have these people never seen Valverde race :lol: )

    One of the articles even states that Alaphillipe did turns on the front while Kwia sat in! :roll:

    Just rewatched it and Kwia did a lot more work than Alaphillipe!

    In any case expecting either of them to work to bring one of the world's best sprinters to the line is fully insane.

    It's because he rides for Sky, if he'd been on any other team it'd be a tactical masterstroke

    I find knee jerk Sky bashing as tedious as anyone else, but I suspect the criticism is coming more from Sagan fans than because Kwia rides for Sky - De La Cruz got plenty of criticism for 'wheelsucking' after denying Contador, as another recent example, and he doesn't ride for Sky.

    But it meant a sky rider won overall.
    "Unfortunately these days a lot of people don’t understand the real quality of a bike" Ernesto Colnago
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Here's a question.

    If Sagan starts his sprint 50m later, does he win?
  • salsiccia1
    salsiccia1 Posts: 3,725
    I think so.
    It's only a bit of sport, Mun. Relax and enjoy the racing.
  • andyp
    andyp Posts: 10,577
    Here's a question.

    If Sagan starts his sprint 50m later, does he win?

    If my auntie had balls she'd be my uncle. :wink:

    Who knows? Kwiatkowski was very lucid in the heat of the moment, purposefully leaving a gap so he could get a run at Sagan's back wheel, and he's beaten him before in a sprint. Alaphilippe might have gone first if Sagan held off a bit longer, but it's all conjecture.
  • No_Ta_Doctor
    No_Ta_Doctor Posts: 14,695
    Just watched the race again from Cipressa onwards. Great race.

    Mmm, it seems that every March, I am out of synch with the forum.
    Tres predictable, but for the final 2% of the race's length, I thought.
    The same script as every other year, but with fewer attacks.

    I enjoyed the finish, which was heavyweight, but it wasn't an all out swashbuckling action-packed edition. But given that it's an attritional race and that most attacks are doomed to pretty quick failure most years the lack of any real digs before Sagan jumped wasn't that much of a drawback.

    I did have to question the usually stingy IainF's 8/10 rating on Twitter. But that turns out to be mainly because Cav was dropped on the Cipressa :-D
    Warning No formatter is installed for the format
  • Here's a question.

    If Sagan starts his sprint 50m later, does he win?

    Kwiatkowski made Sagan start his sprint early, it was actually very smart racing from Kwiatkowski
  • they need to do something with this race, tuning in for the last 15K is no good..
  • tim000
    tim000 Posts: 718
    why would either of them ride with sagan . they had 2 of the best sprinters in the bunch not far behind.
  • imatfaal
    imatfaal Posts: 2,716
    they need to do something with this race, tuning in for the last 15K is no good..

    It is fine as it is - let's not play around with something because it isn't a thrill a minute. It is a seven hour race - people would be dying of nervous exhaustion if it were exciting from flag to line. The 260km at the start isn't just a waste of time - it definitely doesn't make for nail-biting viewing but it is essential to set the stage for the final hills and sprint down to the finish
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,264
    imatfaal wrote:
    they need to do something with this race, tuning in for the last 15K is no good..

    It is fine as it is - let's not play around with something because it isn't a thrill a minute. It is a seven hour race - people would be dying of nervous exhaustion if it were exciting from flag to line. The 260km at the start isn't just a waste of time - it definitely doesn't make for nail-biting viewing but it is essential to set the stage for the final hills and sprint down to the finish
    Bringing La Manie back might mean fewer riders arriving at the base of the Cipressa and give long range attacks a chance. But it's always going to come down to the last twenty minutes.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • inseine
    inseine Posts: 5,788
    Everyone looks to Sagan but who'd have thought Kwiatkowski was going to have such a great start to the year. If he can carry on like this he's going to be one of the riders of the season. He looked very relaxed and confident to me, both on the descent and in the sprint.
  • imatfaal
    imatfaal Posts: 2,716
    RichN95 wrote:
    imatfaal wrote:
    they need to do something with this race, tuning in for the last 15K is no good..

    It is fine as it is - let's not play around with something because it isn't a thrill a minute. It is a seven hour race - people would be dying of nervous exhaustion if it were exciting from flag to line. The 260km at the start isn't just a waste of time - it definitely doesn't make for nail-biting viewing but it is essential to set the stage for the final hills and sprint down to the finish
    Bringing La Manie back might mean fewer riders arriving at the base of the Cipressa and give long range attacks a chance. But it's always going to come down to the last twenty minutes.

    Completely - most races have tweaks but the core idea remains and MSR is usually a huge slog followed by short burst of extreme power; anything else must come from riders approaching it differently

    https://www.strava.com/segments/11261020 now that's a KOM to be pretty proud of :-)
  • milton50
    milton50 Posts: 3,856
    536 watts. Heavyweight.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,630
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    NorvernRob wrote:
    AK_jnr wrote:
    The Kwiato bashing on the comments on various cycling news pages is ridiculous. This was literally no different to the thousands of breakaway finishes that have gone before it, but because its Sagan people lose their minds.

    I was going to post pretty much the same thing. The world is full of idiots, apparently Kwia is a 'wheelsucker' (have these people never seen Valverde race :lol: )

    One of the articles even states that Alaphillipe did turns on the front while Kwia sat in! :roll:

    Just rewatched it and Kwia did a lot more work than Alaphillipe!

    In any case expecting either of them to work to bring one of the world's best sprinters to the line is fully insane.

    It's because he rides for Sky, if he'd been on any other team it'd be a tactical masterstroke

    I find knee jerk Sky bashing as tedious as anyone else, but I suspect the criticism is coming more from Sagan fans than because Kwia rides for Sky - De La Cruz got plenty of criticism for 'wheelsucking' after denying Contador, as another recent example, and he doesn't ride for Sky.

    I suspect it's because many of those who are most vocal on social media only follow cycling as it's in fashion among a certain set. They don't understand the nuances and believe all the Rapha style fairy tales of how it used to be when cycling was in black and white. They believe that the greats of the past lived in a spirit of fair play and equally shared the work in breaks or ride off the front alone with 50km to go. They don't realise that it has always been a case of working together for mutual benefit while still doing as little as possible to have the best chance of winning. Sagan is a rarity in that he is genuinely able to ride in the style the romantics want and still be able to win regularly. The cynic in me thinks Bertie realises he's not going to win much more and so has decided to try to be a crowd pleaser instead.
  • r0bh
    r0bh Posts: 2,454
    Milton50 wrote:
    536 watts. Heavyweight.

    Dan Lloyd tweeted that that's a 'calculated' value; actual power was 443W.

    (Calculated power number inaccurate, who'd of thunk it?)
  • ellerslierd
    ellerslierd Posts: 266
    imatfaal wrote:

    https://www.strava.com/segments/11261020 now that's a KOM to be pretty proud of :-)

    Shows how flat out Dumoulin/sky were riding... or that the fact there was no let up in the pace is unusual
  • inseine
    inseine Posts: 5,788
    imatfaal wrote:

    https://www.strava.com/segments/11261020 now that's a KOM to be pretty proud of :-)

    Shows how flat out Dumoulin/sky were riding... or that the fact there was no let up in the pace is unusual

    I once had a KOM stolen by Kwiatkowski. That was a nice notification ;)
  • Milton50 wrote:
    536 watts. Heavyweight.
    the clown that is Digger has been on twitter reposting folks saying that the times match or better EPO era climbs, so now a 5 minute effort = doping
  • Vino'sGhost
    Vino'sGhost Posts: 4,129
    That 446 watts is that someone's average for the last climb?
  • Milton50 wrote:
    536 watts. Heavyweight.
    the clown that is Digger has been on twitter reposting folks saying that the times match or better EPO era climbs, so now a 5 minute effort = doping


    The Irish Coco
  • salsiccia1
    salsiccia1 Posts: 3,725
    4FS

    It's so depressing. We've watched a great finish involving some of the best riders of the current era, and people are determined to make it a doping issue. Why do they even bother with cycling?
    It's only a bit of sport, Mun. Relax and enjoy the racing.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    See my earlier post.
  • That 446 watts is that someone's average for the last climb?
    I'm sure you already know the answer to that
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,445
    r0bh wrote:
    Milton50 wrote:
    536 watts. Heavyweight.

    Dan Lloyd tweeted that that's a 'calculated' value; actual power was 443W.

    (Calculated power number inaccurate, who'd of thunk it?)
    443 watts sounds really quite low. At 68kg (wikipedia) that would be 6.5-6.6 w/kg which for a 5 minute effort is at the top end of cat 1/ bottom end of domestic pro on the Coggan chart.

    Total guess but that would put his ftp at 5.2 or 5.5 w/kg which is high for an average Joe but wouldn't be a pro. Totally neglects that he'd done 250km first of course.

    536w on the other hand gives him 7.9 w/kg which is pretty extraordinary over 5 mins. I guess the ftp would be around 6.7w/kg which is an awfully familiar number...

    As I understand it there was a tailwind up the climb? And it's not all that steep so the tailwind would have a greater effect. Calculated number is certainly shite, but the 443w also sounds odd.

    All guesswork and I assume I will now get some flaming!
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,731
    edited March 2017
    Milton50 wrote:
    536 watts. Heavyweight.
    the clown that is Digger has been on twitter reposting folks saying that the times match or better EPO era climbs, so now a 5 minute effort = doping

    536 watts for 5 minutes is about 10% less than Digger is capable of in typing the average rant.

    https://www.strava.com/armchairathletes/tossers101

    :P :P :P
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,264
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    r0bh wrote:
    Milton50 wrote:
    536 watts. Heavyweight.

    Dan Lloyd tweeted that that's a 'calculated' value; actual power was 443W.

    (Calculated power number inaccurate, who'd of thunk it?)
    443 watts sounds really quite low. At 68kg (wikipedia) that would be 6.5-6.6 w/kg which for a 5 minute effort is at the top end of cat 1/ bottom end of domestic pro on the Coggan chart.

    Total guess but that would put his ftp at 5.2 or 5.5 w/kg which is high for an average Joe but wouldn't be a pro. Totally neglects that he'd done 250km first of course.

    536w on the other hand gives him 7.9 w/kg which is pretty extraordinary over 5 mins. I guess the ftp would be around 6.7w/kg which is an awfully familiar number...

    As I understand it there was a tailwind up the climb? And it's not all that steep so the tailwind would have a greater effect. Calculated number is certainly shite, but the 443w also sounds odd.

    All guesswork and I assume I will now get some flaming!
    Remember that a group of 50 finished five seconds behind the winners. The ascent of the Poggio didn't drop many.

    While it may be one of the faster ascents it had all the factors in its favour - slow race up til then, tailwind, newly laid tarmac, with riders to spare teams taking up the pace from the bottom including one of the best TTers on the front for most of it. Typically the group will be smaller at the base with teams having less riders to burn (Orica had seven in the Kristoff group at the end, Astana five)

    For a five minute effort 7+ w'kg is a necessity for a world class rider. Pinot's lab tests have him at 7.3, Gesink's trainer said his best during the '15 Tour was 7.4. And these guys aren't the top guys for hilly classics.

    The power to look at is from Sagan's attack to the summit.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,445
    Yeah, possibly that's the explanation. I would have assumed that they'd have been closer to the red, even taking it relatively slow.

    But all it really shows is that estimated numbers are junk.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,264
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    Yeah, possibly that's the explanation. I would have assumed that they'd have been closer to the red, even taking it relatively slow.

    But all it really shows is that estimated numbers are junk.
    Oh, definitely.

    In 2015 French TV had an 'expert' estimate Froome's power during his win at Pierre St Martin and came up with 7W/kg for Froome's best five minutes (Peak Power Output). He said that was matched by only Armstrong and Ullrich. A French training analysis company said that 15% of the 500 riders they worked with (mostly pros) could do that. (They also thought that is was more likely nearer 7.5)

    Even if these estimates were absolutely correct, they don't consider the circumstances of the race, which is the crucial part.
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,445
    Yeah 7w/kg for 5 minutes isn't really surprising, surely. Not for a pro.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,264
    The media want doping stories and without actual evidence of doping a gap in the market appeared. So power estimates filled that gap, with nice soundbite friendly round numbers - 6W/kg is the limit (regardless of time) - and devoid of all context.

    It's all BS without analysing the race itself. Another daft analysis was that Froome rode up Pierre St Martin a minute quicker than the doped Tyler Hamilton in 2003. Those that pointed that out failed to mention that Hamilton still had another 130km to the finish.
    Twitter: @RichN95