Poo tin... Put@in...

surrey_commuter

Dorset_Boy said:

surrey_commuter said:

Does anybody else think that Russia’s inability to supply it’s arms forces could be a sign that their economy is a lot more fooked than everybody thinks?

If so then the sanctions could tip them over the edge a lot more rapidly than anybody expects

For Ukraine, it could come down to can Ukrainian forces hold out long enough. That may mean a week, two weeks or a little longer.
I can't see hard sanctions being lifted whilst Putin is in power.

Lol - I was more thinking a years rather than decades

mrb123

johngti said:

i need to stop reading this thread. Not doing my mental health any good…

Is there any way to make a thread disappear?

Nuclear armageddon?

Pross

surrey_commuter said:

Does anybody else think that Russia’s inability to supply it’s arms forces could be a sign that their economy is a lot more fooked than everybody thinks?

If so then the sanctions could tip them over the edge a lot more rapidly than anybody expects

I'm certainly not convinced they are able to expand into attacking any other countries or even taking over the whole of Ukraine. It may be they settle for the southern area to control the Black Sea and the east of the country plus Kyev.

If I was president of Ukraine I would probably be offering a binding referendum for Crimea and the eastern provinces that Russia already control so that they can be officially recognised as part of Russia on the world stage in return for troops being pulled back out of all other parts of the country but probably too late for that now. It really needed Russia to be hit by the current sanctions years ago when they first showed their aggresive intent towards Ukraine.

kingstongraham

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

It’s not a great look is it?

The most surprising thing in that story is that Hampton is in the borough of Richmond

There speaks someone who's never been to the Beveree.

Dorset_Boy

surrey_commuter said:

Dorset_Boy said:

surrey_commuter said:

Does anybody else think that Russia’s inability to supply it’s arms forces could be a sign that their economy is a lot more fooked than everybody thinks?

If so then the sanctions could tip them over the edge a lot more rapidly than anybody expects

For Ukraine, it could come down to can Ukrainian forces hold out long enough. That may mean a week, two weeks or a little longer.
I can't see hard sanctions being lifted whilst Putin is in power.

Lol - I was more thinking a years rather than decades

It appears that the sanctions on the Russian economy are already biting, and the longer the invasion drags out the more people in Russia will become aware of soldiers that have died, and possibly the more unpopular Putin's war will become with the population.
If Ukraine capitulates in the short term the number of Russian bodies will be much lower, so I was really referring to the sanctions biting (which will get worse by the day for ordinary citizens of Russia) and the death toll of Russian soldiers mounting over a sufficiently long period, which might result in Ukraine remaining a country, rather than a territory.

surrey_commuter

kingstongraham said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

It’s not a great look is it?

The most surprising thing in that story is that Hampton is in the borough of Richmond

There speaks someone who's never been to the Beveree.

Had to Google that but have been to Hampton/Teddington many times. I just asssumed Richmond border was the Thames

DeVlaeminck

Dorset_Boy said:

rjsterry said:

First.Aspect said:

Not necessarily.

johngti said:

rick_chasey said:

I worry the Ukrainians are losing substantial ground now.

There was always going to be a point where Russia prevail in this, just by sheer force of numbers. The difficult decision for Ukraine now is when do they surrender? Because they’re going to have to - the only alternative is escalation due to other countries getting involved.

They aren't going to surrender as such. It will just get messier and there will be more young (and possibly now old) men heading back to Russia for cremation. This will be a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine. The west will continue to try to induce one within Russia. The Russian government has recent experience of hyper inflation and defaulting on debt, so I am not sure it will bother them terribly much. The only thing likely to bother them is running out of bullets, old men or young men. .

I think the bit the West is struggling to get its head around is that this won't stop at Ukraine. The only way this ends is Putin deposed or dead.

I agree. Putin and Lavarov have to be eliminated.

I don't know - where else are they likely to invade ? There's the part of Moldova, Transnistria, beyond that it'd be another huge step to invade anywhere else especially towards the West as they are mostly (all?) NATO and will have beefed up defences now and troops from major Western countries which will being huge airpower to the party.

Finland would be "interesting", Georgia maybe a possibility - I'd still be surprised though .

First.Aspect

There are quite a few stan's they could invade. And Jan's.

DeVlaeminck

Yes maybe - don't they still have influence in the likes of Kazakhstan. China may have views on Putin wanting to increase Russia's involvement in their direction though and having made enemies to the West can he afford to antagonise them? I can see China exploiting a weak and isolated Russia - maybe they'll do the same thing they've done in other poor nations expand their influence by investing in economic projects.

Pross

First.Aspect said:

There are quite a few stan's they could invade. And Jan's.

I doubt if anyone would interject with that plus I think they are all pretty much pro-Russian already (although I can't speak fo Jan as I don't know her).

john80

DeVlaeminck said:

Dorset_Boy said:

rjsterry said:

First.Aspect said:

Not necessarily.

johngti said:

rick_chasey said:

I worry the Ukrainians are losing substantial ground now.

There was always going to be a point where Russia prevail in this, just by sheer force of numbers. The difficult decision for Ukraine now is when do they surrender? Because they’re going to have to - the only alternative is escalation due to other countries getting involved.

They aren't going to surrender as such. It will just get messier and there will be more young (and possibly now old) men heading back to Russia for cremation. This will be a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine. The west will continue to try to induce one within Russia. The Russian government has recent experience of hyper inflation and defaulting on debt, so I am not sure it will bother them terribly much. The only thing likely to bother them is running out of bullets, old men or young men. .

I think the bit the West is struggling to get its head around is that this won't stop at Ukraine. The only way this ends is Putin deposed or dead.

I agree. Putin and Lavarov have to be eliminated.

I don't know - where else are they likely to invade ? There's the part of Moldova, Transnistria, beyond that it'd be another huge step to invade anywhere else especially towards the West as they are mostly (all?) NATO and will have beefed up defences now and troops from major Western countries which will being huge airpower to the party.

Finland would be "interesting", Georgia maybe a possibility - I'd still be surprised though .

The minute a armoured vehicle entered a NATO country there would be a squadron of bombers taking them out. With Putin the only answer is to take him out immediately and not let things escalate. Once you have blown up the first five tanks there might be some reticence on the remainder for that suicide mission.

Pross

The other thing to consider in all of this is how much economic pain us 'westerners' are prepared to accept to support Ukraine. It's all well and good all the 'we stand with Ukraine' profiles on Facebook pages now but what if petrol hits £2 per litre, inflation grows at an even faster rate than it is at the moment, we can't get new mibile phones / computers / cars as chip production relies on supplies of minerals or metals that come mainly from Russian mines.

Based on Covid I think the cutoff point between the majority thinking of others and thinking of themselves is a few months at most.

First.Aspect

There's simply no option.

Best case from here is a softening of sanctions in a few months or years, if there is some sort of agreement, but even then it will be difficult for companies to invest back into Russia for the forseeable future. The markets will look for other sources of materials so they don't get stung again.

DeVlaeminck

Rory Stewart was on TV last night pushing the line that if we aren't willing to accept that economic pain now then in the long run it'll be more expensive. He gave the example if Germany already having had to ramp up defence spending by (apologies if the figure is wrong it was late) £200bn.

Of course getting a decision that is rational for the collective isn't always easy though and there will no doubt be a willingness to impose sanctions that cost other countries money which could end up with insufficient of a hit to really stop Putin. But Stewart's argument was if that happens we could end up with further war that costs the West far more.

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

Does anybody else think that Russia’s inability to supply it’s arms forces could be a sign that their economy is a lot more fooked than everybody thinks?

If so then the sanctions could tip them over the edge a lot more rapidly than anybody expects

I assumed you would just blame the public sector for this.

rick_chasey

Pross said:

The other thing to consider in all of this is how much economic pain us 'westerners' are prepared to accept to support Ukraine. It's all well and good all the 'we stand with Ukraine' profiles on Facebook pages now but what if petrol hits £2 per litre, inflation grows at an even faster rate than it is at the moment, we can't get new mibile phones / computers / cars as chip production relies on supplies of minerals or metals that come mainly from Russian mines.

Based on Covid I think the cutoff point between the majority thinking of others and thinking of themselves is a few months at most.

Most people i know have donated substantially to various charities, so I think there is quite a bit of appetite in certain quarters, but I appreciate the "cost of living crisis" is going to bite harder.

It's gonna be tough and the war will most likely kick of a recession too.

Pross

rick_chasey said:

Pross said:

The other thing to consider in all of this is how much economic pain us 'westerners' are prepared to accept to support Ukraine. It's all well and good all the 'we stand with Ukraine' profiles on Facebook pages now but what if petrol hits £2 per litre, inflation grows at an even faster rate than it is at the moment, we can't get new mibile phones / computers / cars as chip production relies on supplies of minerals or metals that come mainly from Russian mines.

Based on Covid I think the cutoff point between the majority thinking of others and thinking of themselves is a few months at most.

Most people i know have donated substantially to various charities, so I think there is quite a bit of appetite in certain quarters, but I appreciate the "cost of living crisis" is going to bite harder.

It's gonna be tough and the war will most likely kick of a recession too.

I appreciate I'm being cynical but I remember all the optimism that Covid was going to change people for the better, we'd all learn that we could live more sustainable lives and would be more considerate to others but within 3-6 months that was all out of the window.

I also suspect that most of the people you know are either fairly well off and / or socially minded anyway so more inclined to be supportive. I hope I'm not giving enough credit but worry that people will be less supportive of continued sanctions when they can no longer afford to have the heating on or fill up their car (or even that their choice of holiday destination becomes harder to get to).

Pross

Just found out that someone in my running club has an uncle who lives in Sury which has been over-run. He's 68 and has signed up to fight.

morstar

Pross said:

The other thing to consider in all of this is how much economic pain us 'westerners' are prepared to accept to support Ukraine. It's all well and good all the 'we stand with Ukraine' profiles on Facebook pages now but what if petrol hits £2 per litre, inflation grows at an even faster rate than it is at the moment, we can't get new mibile phones / computers / cars as chip production relies on supplies of minerals or metals that come mainly from Russian mines.

Based on Covid I think the cutoff point between the majority thinking of others and thinking of themselves is a few months at most.

Sometimes you get presented with a situation with no good outcome through no fault of your own.
The easier path of the two is often the more costly one long term. Sometimes the short term pain is the only way to get on top of a situation.
Letting Putin get away with this is going to be terrible in the long term. Gives him, China, any other rogue state a dangerous precedent.

rick_chasey

morstar said:

Pross said:

The other thing to consider in all of this is how much economic pain us 'westerners' are prepared to accept to support Ukraine. It's all well and good all the 'we stand with Ukraine' profiles on Facebook pages now but what if petrol hits £2 per litre, inflation grows at an even faster rate than it is at the moment, we can't get new mibile phones / computers / cars as chip production relies on supplies of minerals or metals that come mainly from Russian mines.

Based on Covid I think the cutoff point between the majority thinking of others and thinking of themselves is a few months at most.

Sometimes you get presented with a situation with no good outcome through no fault of your own.
The easier path of the two is often the more costly one long term. Sometimes the short term pain is the only way to get on top of a situation.
Letting Putin get away with this is going to be terrible in the long term. Gives him, China, any other rogue state a dangerous precedent.

I dunno. As much as I think with people like him you are right, he has nukes and I think we need to believe him when he says he'll use them if he feels threatened.

morstar

rick_chasey said:

morstar said:

Pross said:

The other thing to consider in all of this is how much economic pain us 'westerners' are prepared to accept to support Ukraine. It's all well and good all the 'we stand with Ukraine' profiles on Facebook pages now but what if petrol hits £2 per litre, inflation grows at an even faster rate than it is at the moment, we can't get new mibile phones / computers / cars as chip production relies on supplies of minerals or metals that come mainly from Russian mines.

Based on Covid I think the cutoff point between the majority thinking of others and thinking of themselves is a few months at most.

Sometimes you get presented with a situation with no good outcome through no fault of your own.
The easier path of the two is often the more costly one long term. Sometimes the short term pain is the only way to get on top of a situation.
Letting Putin get away with this is going to be terrible in the long term. Gives him, China, any other rogue state a dangerous precedent.

I dunno. As much as I think with people like him you are right, he has nukes and I think we need to believe him when he says he'll use them if he feels threatened.

I agree he can't be taken lightly. My response was specifically regarding the public appetite in the west for the inconvenience of an ongoing situation.
Acquiescence for Western convenience will undoubtedly become more appealing the longer this goes on. That will be a huge mistake and ultimately make things worse in the long run. (IMHO)

rick_chasey

Yes. Europe is at war and that sucks for everyone - some more than others (obviously).

tailwindhome

My wife's colleague is travelling from Belfast to the Ukraine this weekend to try to get her elderly mother out of there.

I hope this courage is rewarded with the easiest possible process in getting her into the UK

pangolin

Sainsbury's changes Chicken Kiev to Kyiv


The UK supermarket chain Sainsbury's has announced that it is renaming "Chicken Kiev" as "Chicken Kyiv" - reflecting Ukraine's preferred spelling of its capital city's name, as opposed to the Russian spelling used under Soviet rule.

rick_chasey

So here's an unintended consequence. With Russia practically shut out of the Western economy save for a pipeline or two, Kalinigrad is in bad shape, as it's isolated and not attached to the mainland. All the usual shipping firms are refusing to dock in Russia or allow Russian ships to dock.

Eventually the Russians will secure an alternative but currently it's in bad bad shape.

I wonder if it gets too bad what Putin will want to do.

shirley_basso

FSB feeding information to the Ukrainians, notably regarding assassination attempts to Volodymyr Zelensky

"A source close to the group said it was “eerie” how well briefed Zelensky’s security team appeared to be"

Ukrainian officials claim the information that led to the deaths of the Chechens came from disgruntled agents in the FSB who oppose the invasion.

“I can say that we have received information from the FSB, who do not want to take part in this bloody war”

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/zelensky-survives-three-assassination-attempts-in-days-xnstdfdfc

MattFalle

.

rick_chasey said:

So here's an unintended consequence. With Russia practically shut out of the Western economy save for a pipeline or two, Kalinigrad is in bad shape, as it's isolated and not attached to the mainland. All the usual shipping firms are refusing to dock in Russia or allow Russian ships to dock.

Eventually the Russians will secure an alternative but currently it's in bad bad shape.

cry me a river.

perhaps the Russians should have thought of this before they started murdering people's children.

MattFalle

tailwindhome said:

My wife's colleague is travelling from Belfast to the Ukraine this weekend to try to get her elderly mother out of there.

I hope this courage is rewarded with the easiest possible process in getting her into the UK

of course it won't - the Tories will ensure that its maximum hassle to get, a 'mare to do anything while she is here and will try and deport her as soon as they can.

people continually underestimate what scum the Tories are.

rick_chasey

MattFalle said:

.

rick_chasey said:

So here's an unintended consequence. With Russia practically shut out of the Western economy save for a pipeline or two, Kalinigrad is in bad shape, as it's isolated and not attached to the mainland. All the usual shipping firms are refusing to dock in Russia or allow Russian ships to dock.

Eventually the Russians will secure an alternative but currently it's in bad bad shape.

cry me a river.

perhaps the Russians should have thought of this before they started murdering people's children.

I know but I get the feeling Putin spends a lot of time looking at maps and I can just imagine him going "hmm, we should bridge up to that"

MattFalle

rick_chasey said:

Yes. Europe is at war and that sucks for everyone - some more than others (obviously).

understatement of the decade Rick.