Poo tin... Put@in...

rick_chasey

thegreatdivide said:

Interesting article by the Royal United Services Institute (the UK’s leading defence and security think tank) on why the Russian Air Force haven't turned up to the fight (hint - they're a bit censored and out of bombs):

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

If anyone plays hearts of iron you'd recognise the problems the Russians have - n00b problems.

seanoconn

Just found out this morning that Putin is only 5 feet 5 inches tall officially, so could be even smaller.

Does explain a lot and what little chance taller people have or reasoning with him.

Deffo need the Chinese on board to mediate.

pblakeney

kingstonian said:

Wonder what Biden means when he said in his State of the Union speech “ You have no idea what’s coming.” Seeing as the West won’t do anything militarily, is there much more that can be done? Not clear what further economic sanctions there could be, beyond what is already in place.

Best I can come up with is to essentially lay siege to Russia.
Not a military war but cut all imports and exports.

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

kingstonian said:

Wonder what Biden means when he said in his State of the Union speech “ You have no idea what’s coming.” Seeing as the West won’t do anything militarily, is there much more that can be done? Not clear what further economic sanctions there could be, beyond what is already in place.

The sanctions are massive.

There was a lot of fawning over Putin pre-invasion about how powerful he is, but what the US is doing to the Russian economy really shows who is the global superpower and who isn't.

Am assuming that next stage sanctions will involve more remote Russian links. i.e. not only materials coming from Russia, but goods made from materials coming from Russia, companies trading with Russia.

i.e. To indirectly and as nicely as possible put pressure on India and China.

Am also assuming anything more meaningful from the EU will be delayed by Germany's desperate scramble to find alternative energy sources.

rick_chasey

They have come a pariah state almost overnight. No-one is allowing Russian merchant ships to unload, dock or even refuel, the western firms invested have declared they are pulling out of everything at big losses (at least, when Russians lift up capital controls again).

It's huge. Basically if you're an international Russian business you're totally screwed.

In the meantime they've had to put interest rates at 20% (!) and the currency has devalued by almost half.

It is absolutely brutal. Their biggest bank, sberbank is now a pennystock. Even the Swss won't let them hide their money.

They are properly f*cked.

kingstonian

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

kingstonian said:

Wonder what Biden means when he said in his State of the Union speech “ You have no idea what’s coming.” Seeing as the West won’t do anything militarily, is there much more that can be done? Not clear what further economic sanctions there could be, beyond what is already in place.

The sanctions are massive.

There was a lot of fawning over Putin pre-invasion about how powerful he is, but what the US is doing to the Russian economy really shows who is the global superpower and who isn't.

Am assuming that next stage sanctions will involve more remote Russian links. i.e. not only materials coming from Russia, but goods made from materials coming from Russia, companies trading with Russia.

i.e. To indirectly and as nicely as possible put pressure on India and China.

Am also assuming anything more meaningful from the EU will be delayed by Germany's desperate scramble to find alternative energy sources.

I wonder whether they have up their sleeves a plan to provide an alternative gas supply to Germany and Italy. That would be immense.

rick_chasey

kingstonian said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

kingstonian said:

Wonder what Biden means when he said in his State of the Union speech “ You have no idea what’s coming.” Seeing as the West won’t do anything militarily, is there much more that can be done? Not clear what further economic sanctions there could be, beyond what is already in place.

The sanctions are massive.

There was a lot of fawning over Putin pre-invasion about how powerful he is, but what the US is doing to the Russian economy really shows who is the global superpower and who isn't.

Am assuming that next stage sanctions will involve more remote Russian links. i.e. not only materials coming from Russia, but goods made from materials coming from Russia, companies trading with Russia.

i.e. To indirectly and as nicely as possible put pressure on India and China.

Am also assuming anything more meaningful from the EU will be delayed by Germany's desperate scramble to find alternative energy sources.

I wonder whether they have up their sleeves a plan to provide an alternative gas supply to Germany and Italy. That would be immense.

Talk in the commodity trading community is the LNG traders are running around trying to sort this out - I suspect by summer Germany will have a substantial amount of LNG imports

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

They have come a pariah state almost overnight. No-one is allowing Russian merchant ships to unload, dock or even refuel, the western firms invested have declared they are pulling out of everything at big losses (at least, when Russians lift up capital controls again).

It's huge. Basically if you're an international Russian business you're totally screwed.

In the meantime they've had to put interest rates at 20% (!) and the currency has devalued by almost half.

It is absolutely brutal. Their biggest bank, sberbank is now a pennystock. Even the Swss won't let them hide their money.

They are properly f*cked.

Thing is, inducing a Russian revolution might take a century or so.

And just as Russia is making a great effort at creating a modern Ukrainian national identity, could have a similar effect there, because normal civilian Russians are asking the west, what have I every done to you?

A question I have is, without access to the west, and with very restricted access to asia, how self-sufficient is Russia, when it comes to electronics and supplies required to fight a war? If not very is the answer, then if you are a mad 70 year old weirdo with a bad back and other health issues, you just end up using the weapons you have until they run out, right? i.e. ALL the weapons you have.

Makes me wonder if the world's best bet is the blind ambition and greed of the despots in waiting. Would they follow Putin to the point of Putin largely destroying the very thing they want?

MattFalle

rick_chasey said:

thegreatdivide said:

Interesting article by the Royal United Services Institute (the UK’s leading defence and security think tank) on why the Russian Air Force haven't turned up to the fight (hint - they're a bit censored and out of bombs):

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

If anyone plays hearts of iron you'd recognise the problems the Russians have - n00b problems.

what does that mean Rick?

rick_chasey

MattFalle said:

rick_chasey said:

thegreatdivide said:

Interesting article by the Royal United Services Institute (the UK’s leading defence and security think tank) on why the Russian Air Force haven't turned up to the fight (hint - they're a bit censored and out of bombs):

https://rusi.org/explore-our-research/publications/commentary/mysterious-case-missing-russian-air-force

If anyone plays hearts of iron you'd recognise the problems the Russians have - n00b problems.

what does that mean Rick?

it's just a ww2 strategy war sim game thing.

supplying your armies and transport capacity is something you have to pay attention to.

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

kingstonian said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

kingstonian said:

Wonder what Biden means when he said in his State of the Union speech “ You have no idea what’s coming.” Seeing as the West won’t do anything militarily, is there much more that can be done? Not clear what further economic sanctions there could be, beyond what is already in place.

The sanctions are massive.

There was a lot of fawning over Putin pre-invasion about how powerful he is, but what the US is doing to the Russian economy really shows who is the global superpower and who isn't.

Am assuming that next stage sanctions will involve more remote Russian links. i.e. not only materials coming from Russia, but goods made from materials coming from Russia, companies trading with Russia.

i.e. To indirectly and as nicely as possible put pressure on India and China.

Am also assuming anything more meaningful from the EU will be delayed by Germany's desperate scramble to find alternative energy sources.

I wonder whether they have up their sleeves a plan to provide an alternative gas supply to Germany and Italy. That would be immense.

Talk in the commodity trading community is the LNG traders are running around trying to sort this out - I suspect by summer Germany will have a substantial amount of LNG imports

Russia will probably manage to increase its LNG exports by then as well.

shirley_basso

To whom?

TheBigBean

Also, no forecast change in gas prices until summer 23.

TheBigBean

shirley_basso said:

To whom?

All the countries currently desperate for it e.g. China.

First.Aspect

TheBigBean said:

Also, no forecast change in gas prices until summer 23.

That alone should call any analysis based on the predictions you have available into question, given that its already out of date.

TheBigBean

First.Aspect said:

TheBigBean said:

Also, no forecast change in gas prices until summer 23.

That alone should call any analysis based on the predictions you have available into question, given that its already out of date.

I don't understand.

rjsterry

TheBigBean said:

First.Aspect said:

TheBigBean said:

Also, no forecast change in gas prices until summer 23.

That alone should call any analysis based on the predictions you have available into question, given that its already out of date.

I don't understand.

I think most of us are expecting gas prices to go up soon and a lot.

ugo.santalucia

rick_chasey said:

They have come a pariah state almost overnight. No-one is allowing Russian merchant ships to unload, dock or even refuel, the western firms invested have declared they are pulling out of everything at big losses (at least, when Russians lift up capital controls again).

It's huge. Basically if you're an international Russian business you're totally screwed.

In the meantime they've had to put interest rates at 20% (!) and the currency has devalued by almost half.

It is absolutely brutal. Their biggest bank, sberbank is now a pennystock. Even the Swss won't let them hide their money.

They are properly f*cked.

They are... a few weeks ago I wondered on this very thread whether something similar was remotely possible... it has happened... it's a shame some countries are not helping out... What's the deal with Japan... 3rd biggest economy, are they implementing sanctions? You never hear about Japan... they're very good at flying under the radar

rick_chasey

Japan asked for America to have some of their nukes, so we know where they stand on that.

First.Aspect

TheBigBean said:

shirley_basso said:

To whom?

All the countries currently desperate for it e.g. China.

I think probably India. China seems to be walking a fine line. Besides, they can't just turn on a larger tap, they will just be buying wholesale and being supplied via existing supply and storage lines. If it is expedient economically to do so they will tweak things a bit. But the US and EP consumer goods markets were already about 50 times that of Russia's right, and that was when Russia could trade in dollars, pounds and euros.

I don't see China overtly increasing Russian ties for now. Whatever you think of China's internal and foreign policy at this stage it isn't determined by anyone stupid or mentally ill.

TheBigBean

rjsterry said:

TheBigBean said:

First.Aspect said:

TheBigBean said:

Also, no forecast change in gas prices until summer 23.

That alone should call any analysis based on the predictions you have available into question, given that its already out of date.

I don't understand.

I think most of us are expecting gas prices to go up soon and a lot.

Yes, I'm talking about wholesale prices which have been high for a while. Russia isn't selling directly to consumers.

First.Aspect

TheBigBean said:

rjsterry said:

TheBigBean said:

First.Aspect said:

TheBigBean said:

Also, no forecast change in gas prices until summer 23.

That alone should call any analysis based on the predictions you have available into question, given that its already out of date.

I don't understand.

I think most of us are expecting gas prices to go up soon and a lot.

Yes, I'm talking about wholesale prices which have been high for a while. Russia isn't selling directly to consumers.

The wholesale cost will go up, surely? Or will the softening of the post covid demand compensate?

rjsterry

Interesting thread covering an idea that I've seen in a few places now: that Russian propaganda has worked against its own infantry, as the truth that they are not liberators but occupiers becomes undeniable when they meet Ukrainian civilians.

https://twitter.com/zoyashef/status/1498797424512765953?t=KkkKWhSxif2zY1kzK2-7dQ&s=19

TheBigBean said:

rjsterry said:

TheBigBean said:

First.Aspect said:

TheBigBean said:

Also, no forecast change in gas prices until summer 23.

That alone should call any analysis based on the predictions you have available into question, given that its already out of date.

I don't understand.

I think most of us are expecting gas prices to go up soon and a lot.

Yes, I'm talking about wholesale prices which have been high for a while. Russia isn't selling directly to consumers.

TheBigBean said:

rjsterry said:

TheBigBean said:

First.Aspect said:

TheBigBean said:

Also, no forecast change in gas prices until summer 23.

That alone should call any analysis based on the predictions you have available into question, given that its already out of date.

I don't understand.

I think most of us are expecting gas prices to go up soon and a lot.

Yes, I'm talking about wholesale prices which have been high for a while. Russia isn't selling directly to consumers.

What's to stop them going even higher?

ugo.santalucia

rick_chasey said:

Japan asked for America to have some of their nukes, so we know where they stand on that.

They did get a couple already in the past...

I'll take my coat...

rick_chasey

First.Aspect said:

TheBigBean said:

rjsterry said:

TheBigBean said:

First.Aspect said:

TheBigBean said:

Also, no forecast change in gas prices until summer 23.

That alone should call any analysis based on the predictions you have available into question, given that its already out of date.

I don't understand.

I think most of us are expecting gas prices to go up soon and a lot.

Yes, I'm talking about wholesale prices which have been high for a while. Russia isn't selling directly to consumers.

The wholesale cost will go up, surely? Or will the softening of the post covid demand compensate?

Has already.

pblakeney

TheBigBean said:

rjsterry said:

TheBigBean said:

First.Aspect said:

TheBigBean said:

Also, no forecast change in gas prices until summer 23.

That alone should call any analysis based on the predictions you have available into question, given that its already out of date.

I don't understand.

I think most of us are expecting gas prices to go up soon and a lot.

Yes, I'm talking about wholesale prices which have been high for a while. Russia isn't selling directly to consumers.

Pretty much everyone expects it to keep on increasing.
Make our decision to cut back on production look a bit untimely.

tailwindhome

What's the capital of Russia?

About 100 Rubles

kingstonian

Japan has frozen assets of the Russian central bank and I believe have implemented the same type of wider financial sanctions that the US/EU/UK etc have, so they’re on board from that respect.

TheBigBean

Historical prices

TheBigBean

Market implied forecast prices are around 240p/therm until summer 23. I don't make the forecasts. They can be wrong. Actual prices could be higher or lower.