Poo tin... Put@in...

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  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    How is it helpful to know what could happen in an alternative reality?
  • ballysmate
    ballysmate Posts: 15,930

    Feels like a war. "If you're Russian you're unemployed."

    I suspect if it was not for the nukes NATO would have got stuck in
    Without a doubt.
    Also if Ukraine had kept its nukes, this thread would have been much shorter. Vlad would be sat at his big table, drumming his fingers, frustrated at not being able to do much about Ukraine
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    edited March 2022
    .
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,553
    edited March 2022

    We should be giving individual Russians with skills easier visas, not making them stay in Russia.

    An orchestrated brain drain is I believe already being discussed, but would obviously be slow to take effect.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,405

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    seanoconn said:

    Just found out this morning that Putin is only 5 feet 5 inches tall officially, so could be even smaller.

    Does explain a lot and what little chance taller people have or reasoning with him.

    Deffo need the Chinese on board to mediate.

    So potentially this entire **** show is down to 'Little Man Syndrome'?
    Those big tables are obviously compensating for something...
    There are rumours going round that he is ill or immuno-compromised which may explain some of the bizarre social distancing he has been doing. That or he's read too much of the Big Coronavirus thread.
    According to something I read, he has Parkinson's, although I don't know if that would explain things or not.
    No, it would not. He's always been like this. It's just that the places he was attacking were far enough away for us to ignore him until now.
    Agreed he's always been like this. I know Parkinsons won't turn someone into a psychopath. What I meant was, his change in appearance (looking heavier, more 'puffy' as someone described him) and the rambling unhinged speeches he's been delivering recently..
    That's also what I read - seems US intelligence have their suspicions.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • ballysmate
    ballysmate Posts: 15,930


    Imran Khan gets the little table treatment. Mind you, he's still keen on buying Russian gas and oil.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Feels like a war. "If you're Russian you're unemployed."

    I suspect if it was not for the nukes NATO would have got stuck in
    what would you see that looking like?
    Pfft who knows.

    I'm talking out of my *rse but you get the feeling from the type of reaction the West has given that they are so shocked they are chomping at the bit to get stuck in but can't, so they're doing almost everything possible that isn't that.

    Maybe it's because I'm boring history type but I am certain I have been indoctrinated in the idea that there are such things as just wars and fighting for democracy against tyranny is exactly that, doubly so when it's tyrannical belligerence, aggression and expansionism. I suspect we all have, as that is the narrative we have all grown up in.

    That is largely the same across Western Europe and in the US and I think that is partly why we've seen the reaction we have.

    Hence coming to the conclusion above.
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847

    Rumours that even at big discounts at spot price there are no buyers for Russian oil.

    If that is indeed the case, that’s hugely damaging to Putin. Plus if Germany/Italy sort out alternative gas suppliers, the economic impact will be mind boggling.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Rumours that even at big discounts at spot price there are no buyers for Russian oil.

    If that is indeed the case, that’s hugely damaging to Putin. Plus if Germany/Italy sort out alternative gas suppliers, the economic impact will be mind boggling.
    Yes, and in the UK too, to be parochial for a moment. We were talking about a "cost of living crisis" due to energy prices - they are gonna be materially higher now.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Maybe even another recession…
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867


    Feels like a war. "If you're Russian you're unemployed."

    I suspect if it was not for the nukes NATO would have got stuck in
    what would you see that looking like?
    Pfft who knows.

    I'm talking out of my *rse but you get the feeling from the type of reaction the West has given that they are so shocked they are chomping at the bit to get stuck in but can't, so they're doing almost everything possible that isn't that.

    Maybe it's because I'm boring history type but I am certain I have been indoctrinated in the idea that there are such things as just wars and fighting for democracy against tyranny is exactly that, doubly so when it's tyrannical belligerence, aggression and expansionism. I suspect we all have, as that is the narrative we have all grown up in.

    That is largely the same across Western Europe and in the US and I think that is partly why we've seen the reaction we have.

    Hence coming to the conclusion above.
    I honestly do not see it as it for a number of reasons
    Logistically how do you get a well supplied army into Ukraine
    Is there really public support in USA for committing ground troops into Ukraine

    I can't see past a humanitarian no-fly zone in the west of the country

    NATO was hardly enthusiastic aboyt getting involved in Yugoslavia.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,328
    BJ simply dodging the question about why 18 months delay for sanctions during PMQ. Absolutely despicable.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661


    Feels like a war. "If you're Russian you're unemployed."

    I suspect if it was not for the nukes NATO would have got stuck in
    what would you see that looking like?
    Pfft who knows.

    I'm talking out of my *rse but you get the feeling from the type of reaction the West has given that they are so shocked they are chomping at the bit to get stuck in but can't, so they're doing almost everything possible that isn't that.

    Maybe it's because I'm boring history type but I am certain I have been indoctrinated in the idea that there are such things as just wars and fighting for democracy against tyranny is exactly that, doubly so when it's tyrannical belligerence, aggression and expansionism. I suspect we all have, as that is the narrative we have all grown up in.

    That is largely the same across Western Europe and in the US and I think that is partly why we've seen the reaction we have.

    Hence coming to the conclusion above.
    I honestly do not see it as it for a number of reasons
    Logistically how do you get a well supplied army into Ukraine
    Is there really public support in USA for committing ground troops into Ukraine

    I can't see past a humanitarian no-fly zone in the west of the country

    NATO was hardly enthusiastic aboyt getting involved in Yugoslavia.
    It is Russia though, not a civil war. Existentially, that's what NATO are about.

    But you could entirely be right, not digging my heels in on this one.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    .
    pblakeney said:

    BJ simply dodging the question about why 18 months delay for sanctions during PMQ. Absolutely despicable.

    because he and the whole of tory party are in the pay of putin.

    de pffeffel would never ever had dared to offend his funders and tennis partners.

    he's scum part of a scum party grabbing money hand over fist from scum.

    bet he went on about delivering brexit to divert the discussion.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    Stevo_666 said:

    Interesting piece on the poor situation within the Russian army in Ukraine:
    https://telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/01/russian-troops-disarray-crying-combat-radio-messages-reveal/
    Happy to cut and paste if its paywalled.

    can you c&p please when you have a mo'

    grazie
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,328
    edited March 2022
    MattFalle said:



    bet he went on about delivering brexit to divert the discussion.

    Nah.
    Just patted himself on the back and took credit for the Rouble falling in value. #despicable
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644

    There is an IOC distinction between teams and individuals. The FIA and the UCI and the LTA have all taken the same stance as a result. You will also find Russian football players playing for European club teams in uefa and fifa competition I expect.

    I don't think this is any different, frankly, to Russian employees in any other profession working outside of Russia.

    world volleyball assoc have just banned all belarussian and russians.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Do hope Ukranian army can get out of Chernihiv before they are surrounded.
  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 17,348
    ...
    pblakeney said:

    BJ simply dodging the question about why 18 months delay for sanctions during PMQ. Absolutely despicable.

    johnson protecting his oligarch brexit funders, otherwise he won't get any more free holidays in their castles
    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    sungod said:

    ...

    pblakeney said:

    BJ simply dodging the question about why 18 months delay for sanctions during PMQ. Absolutely despicable.

    johnson protecting his oligarch brexit funders, otherwise he won't get any more free holidays in their castles
    yup.

    and i also wonder how many business ties Sunak and Reese Mogg have to Russia?

    Especially Sunak given his wife's background.

    #Tories:thepartyofscum
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 17,348
    MattFalle said:

    sungod said:

    ...

    pblakeney said:

    BJ simply dodging the question about why 18 months delay for sanctions during PMQ. Absolutely despicable.

    johnson protecting his oligarch brexit funders, otherwise he won't get any more free holidays in their castles
    yup.

    and i also wonder how many business ties Sunak and Reese Mogg have to Russia?

    Especially Sunak given his wife's background.

    #Tories:thepartyofscum
    btw...

    https://www.2oceansvibe.com/2022/03/02/intercepted-radio-messages-show-russian-troops-in-complete-disarray/
    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644

    Do hope Ukranian army can get out of Chernihiv before they are surrounded.

    Do hope Ukranian army can get out of Chernihiv before they are surrounded.

    i think the Ukranians may be thinking the same.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,405
    MattFalle said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Interesting piece on the poor situation within the Russian army in Ukraine:
    https://telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/03/01/russian-troops-disarray-crying-combat-radio-messages-reveal/
    Happy to cut and paste if its paywalled.

    can you c&p please when you have a mo'

    grazie
    By popular request...

    "Russian troops in disarray and ‘crying’ in combat, radio messages reveal
    Soldiers are refusing to obey orders – including to shell Ukrainian towns – while others have walked away from battle


    Russian troops are "operating in complete disarray", their morale sapped and "crying in combat", voice recordings of frontline soldiers obtained by a British intelligence company suggest.

    Intercepted radio messages indicate that troops are refusing to obey central command orders, including to shell Ukrainian towns, while complaining bitterly about running out of supplies of food or fuel.

    Separate video recordings show one group of Russian military walking away from the battle front and heading back across the border, having had enough.

    In a text message to his mother, one soldier purportedly said: "The only thing I want right now is to kill myself."

    A senior Pentagon official said on Tuesday that parts of the Russian army made up of young, poorly trained conscripts were "ill-prepared" for battle and in some cases had "deliberately punched holes" in their vehicles' fuel tanks to make sure they did not reach the front line.

    The defence official declined to reveal the source of the intelligence, but indications of poor Russian morale can be heard in audio recordings of radio messaging between troops obtained by British intelligence company ShadowBreak Intl.

    The Telegraph has been unable to independently verify the recordings, but has listened to some of the 24 hours of material obtained by ShadowBreak since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine six days ago.

    Parts of the Russian military are reliant on mobile phones and analogue "walkie-talkies", making them vulnerable to interception by radio enthusiasts.

    The intercepted conversations shed light on troops' confusion about engaging targets in civilian areas and voice stress and frustration about the lack of supplies. In one conversation, a soldier sounds as though he is crying.

    In the first recording, a soldier seemingly speaking from the command centre says: "We will cover the town… with artillery fire."

    There then follows a tense exchange in which his contact on the ground appears to disobey the order and reminds the more senior officer that civilians – or "the goods" – have to be removed from the town before the army can open fire. The man in command sounds annoyed, but accepts that civilians need to leave first.

    In another clip, the same man who suggested shelling a town loses his temper asking for what appears to be supplies or fuel. "We've been here for three days! When the hell is it going to be ready?" he exclaims, as Russian expletives fill the airwaves.

    In a third audio recording, a soldier who sounds to be in tears pleads with command. "It's slow, it's slow…" are the only words that are audible from the ground. In response, only the command "quickly" can be heard through the static.

    Ukrainian forces also had no problem jamming the Russian communications, which are often interrupted by recordings of the Ukrainian national anthem.

    Samuel Cardillo, 26, who founded ShadowBreak, told The Telegraph he had obtained about a day's worth of recordings that he would make available, sent to him by amateurs with antennas listening in.

    "What we have found is that the Russian operatives are operating in complete disarray," said Mr Cardillo. "They have no clue where they are going and how to really communicate with each other properly."

    He said troops were struggling to maintain communications and would often spend 20 minutes doing a "sound check" to make sure they could be heard, offering opportunities for radio hams to listen in.

    "It's basically like tapping into a police frequency in the US," said Mr Cardillo. "It's basically the Russians transmitting on analogue. So when they request air support, or any kind of support, you will hear the helicopter or the fighter planes.

    "Through the hours of recordings we have over multiple frequencies, you will be able to hear fighter jets, helicopters, tanks, artillery, heavy ballistic missiles talking analogue because not all the units have digital communication methods. It's such a huge vulnerability coming from Russia in such an operation. It's insane.

    "Intelligence being intelligence, if a civilian has access to it then I imagine Nato planes or SBU [Ukraine security service] agents do."

    Mr Cardillo said, having listened to the tapes, that the Russian troops appeared ill-prepared. He also said the tapes offered "proof of war crimes", with orders to fire ballistic missiles into urban areas.

    He added: "There were periods where we heard them [Russian soldiers] crying in combat, a period where they were insulting each other – obviously not a sign of great morale. There was an instance where they shot at each other, there was an instance where they had to transport dead bodies back to their forward operating bases. Many times you can hear them not at their highest level of happiness."

    Mounting evidence from messages sent back home suggest the Kremlin had convinced Russian troops that they would meet little resistance in Ukraine and instead be treated as conquering heroes.

    "We were told we would be greeted with open arms, but they call us fascists," one Russian soldier reportedly texted his mother from Ukraine in a message that Serhiy Kyslytsia, Ukraine's envoy, read out loud at the UN on Monday.

    Mr Kyslytsia showed a photo of what looks like a phone with a cracked screen. In a message, a woman asked her son if he was still out for military drills.

    "The only thing I want right now is to kill myself," the soldier replied, adding: "Mum, I'm in Ukraine. This is a real war. I'm scared, we're firing at everyone, even civilians."

    The Telegraph was unable to verify the conversation.

    While Russian state media and officials had repeatedly denied plans to invade Ukraine before Thursday's all-out assault, they had suggested that the Ukrainian people were so deeply unhappy with their government that they would welcome Russian soldiers.

    The opposite is proving to be the case, which often forces Russian troops either to surrender or simply walk away.

    Ukrainian officials released myriad videos in recent days, showing captive Russian troops claiming they had no idea they would be sent into Ukraine.

    Other videos showed troops apparently deserting. In one clip, a group of about a dozen Russian troops, with their backpacks and rifles, were seen walking away from a small village in the Sumska region that borders Russia in a video shot on Tuesday.

    A local man in the video posted online is heard asking the men: "Are you leaving us?" The soldiers replied: "We're going home." A woman then asks: "Did you take all of your things? I hope you didn't lay mines."

    In another village in the same region, seven armoured vehicles were filmed apparently abandoned in the street.

    Michael Kofman, the director of Russian studies at the US Centre for Naval Analyses, said on Tuesday that multiple videos of Russian prisoners of war seemed to prove the troops had not been fully briefed about the large-scale invasion.

    "Morale is low, nothing is organised, soldiers don't want to fight and readily abandon kit," he said."
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    edited March 2022
    MattFalle said:

    There is an IOC distinction between teams and individuals. The FIA and the UCI and the LTA have all taken the same stance as a result. You will also find Russian football players playing for European club teams in uefa and fifa competition I expect.

    I don't think this is any different, frankly, to Russian employees in any other profession working outside of Russia.

    world volleyball assoc have just banned all belarussian and russians.
    In international competition. So in the same way as an athlete representing Russia in those other sports, rather than an athlete who is Russian entering an even as an individual or part of a non nationally afiliated team. Analogy would be David cup tennis vs US open tennis.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    MattFalle said:

    Do hope Ukranian army can get out of Chernihiv before they are surrounded.

    Do hope Ukranian army can get out of Chernihiv before they are surrounded.

    i think the Ukranians may be thinking the same.

    Some guy on Twitter... well, an ex-ambassador.

  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,405
    And the rest:
    "Valentina Melnikova, a veteran Russian human rights activist, said soldiers' mothers groups were receiving calls from young men in fear of being called up for the invasion.

    One conscript, drafted in November, told the soldiers’ mothers he had been forced to sign a contract and was not told what it was for. Russian law does not allow conscripts to be sent on active duty.

    On the border with Ukraine, Ms Melnikova said mothers feared that their sons who had already returned from Ukraine would be sent back into action. "It's vital the hostilities stop as soon as possible so that both sides can exchange prisoners and bodies of the dead," she added.

    A few months after its last documented incursion into eastern Ukraine, Russia adopted a law that made casualties in "special military operations abroad" in peacetime a state secret.

    It took Russian officials five days to admit Russian casualties and prisoners of war in Ukraine, but the defence ministry still would not provide the exact number.

    Conflict Intelligence Team, Russia's leading open-source group, has used multiple sources to document poor conditions and food supplies for Russian troops.

    One video published online on Tuesday showed Russian army rations taken by Ukrainian troops that had a 2015 expiry date. There was also CCTV footage showing what appeared to be Russian troops looting grocery shops in Ukraine.

    Footage showed Russian troops looting a Ukrainian supermarket
    Footage showed Russian troops looting a Ukrainian supermarket CREDIT: Rob Lee/ Twitter
    Media reports suggested that the troops Russia had amassed before the invasion often had to sleep rough in vehicles or in trenches.

    "When our source from one of the units saw photos of soldiers living in cramped conditions at the border, they said: 'They got lucky. At least they slept under a roof,'" Conflict Intelligence Team said on Tuesday.

    The Pentagon believes poor morale and problems with supply lines may help explain why Russian forces, including a 40-mile convoy of tanks and armoured vehicles near Kyiv, have come to a near standstill.

    The official said Russian commanders may also be "regrouping and rethinking" battle plans. The US believes Russia has now deployed about 80 percent of its forces."
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    sungod said:

    MattFalle said:

    sungod said:

    ...

    pblakeney said:

    BJ simply dodging the question about why 18 months delay for sanctions during PMQ. Absolutely despicable.

    johnson protecting his oligarch brexit funders, otherwise he won't get any more free holidays in their castles
    yup.

    and i also wonder how many business ties Sunak and Reese Mogg have to Russia?

    Especially Sunak given his wife's background.

    #Tories:thepartyofscum
    btw...

    https://www.2oceansvibe.com/2022/03/02/intercepted-radio-messages-show-russian-troops-in-complete-disarray/
    grazie for link 👍
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,405

    Feels like a war. "If you're Russian you're unemployed."

    I suspect if it was not for the nukes NATO would have got stuck in
    Probably - having seen how bad the Russian forces have been I'm sure NATO would fancy its chances.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!