Poo tin... Put@in...

kingstonian

tailwindhome said:

On the Russian Airlines

https://twitter.com/janedvidek/status/1498723248183382020?t=cWwsQGhHq7GIot5SkZsRKQ&s=19

I’m not on Twitter so can’t read the rest, but as Boeing, Airbus and other western plane manufacturers have stopped the sale of plane spare parts to Russia I’d expect that will ground their planes pretty quickly.

mrb123

kingstonian said:

tailwindhome said:

On the Russian Airlines

https://twitter.com/janedvidek/status/1498723248183382020?t=cWwsQGhHq7GIot5SkZsRKQ&s=19

I’m not on Twitter so can’t read the rest, but as Boeing, Airbus and other western plane manufacturers have stopped the sale of plane spare parts to Russia I’d expect that will ground their planes pretty quickly.

You don't need to be on Twitter to read it. Just click on it and it brings it up as a webpage.

First.Aspect

kingstonian said:

tailwindhome said:

On the Russian Airlines

https://twitter.com/janedvidek/status/1498723248183382020?t=cWwsQGhHq7GIot5SkZsRKQ&s=19

I’m not on Twitter so can’t read the rest, but as Boeing, Airbus and other western plane manufacturers have stopped the sale of plane spare parts to Russia I’d expect that will ground their planes pretty quickly.

Depends how much risk they are willing to take and how much encouragement there is to make do and mend. Not sure how aircraft leasing works, mind you. That's an interesting one.

I used to work with a Russian ex radar engineer and the make do and mend mentality extended to scavenging things out of the dumpster behind the factory rather than having me order it from Aldrich.

Made making more than one prototype of anything a headache....

rick_chasey

Anyone else see that Lukashenko map? Seemed they were carving Ukraine up into what looked like 4 and then Russia moving on Moldova.

MattFalle

Stevo_666 said:

And the rest:
"Valentina Melnikova, a veteran Russian human rights activist, said soldiers' mothers groups were receiving calls from young men in fear of being called up for the invasion.

One conscript, drafted in November, told the soldiers’ mothers he had been forced to sign a contract and was not told what it was for. Russian law does not allow conscripts to be sent on active duty.

On the border with Ukraine, Ms Melnikova said mothers feared that their sons who had already returned from Ukraine would be sent back into action. "It's vital the hostilities stop as soon as possible so that both sides can exchange prisoners and bodies of the dead," she added.

A few months after its last documented incursion into eastern Ukraine, Russia adopted a law that made casualties in "special military operations abroad" in peacetime a state secret.

It took Russian officials five days to admit Russian casualties and prisoners of war in Ukraine, but the defence ministry still would not provide the exact number.

Conflict Intelligence Team, Russia's leading open-source group, has used multiple sources to document poor conditions and food supplies for Russian troops.

One video published online on Tuesday showed Russian army rations taken by Ukrainian troops that had a 2015 expiry date. There was also CCTV footage showing what appeared to be Russian troops looting grocery shops in Ukraine.

Footage showed Russian troops looting a Ukrainian supermarket
Footage showed Russian troops looting a Ukrainian supermarket CREDIT: Rob Lee/ Twitter
Media reports suggested that the troops Russia had amassed before the invasion often had to sleep rough in vehicles or in trenches.

"When our source from one of the units saw photos of soldiers living in cramped conditions at the border, they said: 'They got lucky. At least they slept under a roof,'" Conflict Intelligence Team said on Tuesday.

The Pentagon believes poor morale and problems with supply lines may help explain why Russian forces, including a 40-mile convoy of tanks and armoured vehicles near Kyiv, have come to a near standstill.

The official said Russian commanders may also be "regrouping and rethinking" battle plans. The US believes Russia has now deployed about 80 percent of its forces."

2015 rations?

lucky luckybastards.

we have Sodexo.

i know what i'd prefer.

sungod

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

Feels like a war. "If you're Russian you're unemployed."

I suspect if it was not for the nukes NATO would have got stuck in

Probably - having seen how bad the Russian forces have been I'm sure NATO would fancy its chances.

problem is that in putin's worldview the only thing that matters is russia (under his control, not a free democratic russia)

this goes back a long time, it's clearly not an act, it's how he is, he makes stalin look easygoing

to putin, the rest of the world is not needed, there's no downside to going nuclear if he faces defeat, he's dead either way, it's a final act of revenge for the massive chip on his shoulder

it's really a matter of whether or not the military command is willing to refuse launch, rebel and depose him, or, better, save a lot of time and lives, and kill him now

davidof

sungod said:

it's really a matter of whether or not the military command is willing to refuse launch, rebel and depose him, or, better, save a lot of time and lives, and kill him now

I wouldn't count on that happening.

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

Anyone else see that Lukashenko map? Seemed they were carving Ukraine up into what looked like 4 and then Russia moving on Moldova.

This one?

rick_chasey

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/lukashenko-ukraine-russia-belarus-invasion-map-b2026440.html

Stevo_666

sungod said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

Feels like a war. "If you're Russian you're unemployed."

I suspect if it was not for the nukes NATO would have got stuck in

Probably - having seen how bad the Russian forces have been I'm sure NATO would fancy its chances.

problem is that in putin's worldview the only thing that matters is russia (under his control, not a free democratic russia)

this goes back a long time, it's clearly not an act, it's how he is, he makes stalin look easygoing

to putin, the rest of the world is not needed, there's no downside to going nuclear if he faces defeat, he's dead either way, it's a final act of revenge for the massive chip on his shoulder

it's really a matter of whether or not the military command is willing to refuse launch, rebel and depose him, or, better, save a lot of time and lives, and kill him now

I agree, although the reply was in the context of what Rick said - the hypothetical 'if it wasn't for the nukes' scenario.

First.Aspect

Don't you think that might have been intentional?

Whatever these people are, stupid isn't one of them. And they are exceptionally good at being dishonest.

pblakeney

tailwindhome said:

Every time I see a map of Ukraine, all I can see is that big ol' river and think that'll be the partition line.

Hate to say it but Kherson is well west of the Dnieper.
Odesa must be getting concerned.

Ben6899

ballysmate said:

Imran Khan gets the little table treatment. Mind you, he's still keen on buying Russian gas and oil.

I barely recognised Jemima with the face mask.

MattFalle

Ben6899 said:

ballysmate said:

Imran Khan gets the little table treatment. Mind you, he's still keen on buying Russian gas and oil.

I barely recognised Jemima with the face mask.

the hands gave her away.

sungod

Stevo_666 said:

sungod said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

TheBigBean said:

Feels like a war. "If you're Russian you're unemployed."

I suspect if it was not for the nukes NATO would have got stuck in

Probably - having seen how bad the Russian forces have been I'm sure NATO would fancy its chances.

problem is that in putin's worldview the only thing that matters is russia (under his control, not a free democratic russia)

this goes back a long time, it's clearly not an act, it's how he is, he makes stalin look easygoing

to putin, the rest of the world is not needed, there's no downside to going nuclear if he faces defeat, he's dead either way, it's a final act of revenge for the massive chip on his shoulder

it's really a matter of whether or not the military command is willing to refuse launch, rebel and depose him, or, better, save a lot of time and lives, and kill him now

I agree, although the reply was in the context of what Rick said - the hypothetical 'if it wasn't for the nukes' scenario.

if it weren't for nuclear risk, i'm sure there'd be less reluctance to take more direct military action, in the current situation it wouldn't need boots on the ground to cause severe damage to the invading forces

but action was needed 25+ years ago, he's gone further each time and never once faced adequate response

plenty of would-be/petty tyrants praised him for his 'values' (trump, farage, berlusconi, le pen, bolsonaro, orban, xi, modi, lukashenko, etc. etc.)

most of the rest, who should have known better, turned a blind eye or made meaningless gestures with soft sanctions, putin laughed at them

leads direct to where we are today

consistent lesson of human history: don't allow tyrants to gain power, kill them before they kill the rest of us

john80

I don't think you can identify tyrants super early. However what you can do is act decisively when they break international law such as poisoning people abroad and not being able to figure out where a border is when it is drawn on a map. I mean if we are claiming that we used to have an interest there then it would seem like all Western nations would have a pretty big claim to parts of the world. Any brits want to take back the USA or maybe India. Things could get messy if we allowed all nations to operate as Putin does. As others have said Putin is not a builder he is a wrecker. The way to bring Ukraine back into Russias sphere of influence is through making Russia worth talking to not turning it into a basket case. This should be obvious to all Russians of moderate intelligence.

thegreatdivide

pblakeney - Kherson is right by the Dnieper. It's on the west bank but it's smack bang next to it. It's an important port to the Black Sea.

pblakeney

thegreatdivide said:

pblakeney - Kherson is right by the Dnieper. It's on the west bank but it's smack bang next to it. It's an important port to the Black Sea.

Yeah, I can see that the river kicks west at the Black Sea.
Bigger concern is that the Russian controlled area is extended west and north of there. Odesa will be a major asset to capture too.

thedirector135

Vlad reminds me of that actor in Attack of the Killer Potatoes.

Pross

imposter2.0 said:

rjsterry said:

imposter2.0 said:

Stevo_666 said:

imposter2.0 said:

Stevo_666 said:

seanoconn said:

Just found out this morning that Putin is only 5 feet 5 inches tall officially, so could be even smaller.

Does explain a lot and what little chance taller people have or reasoning with him.

Deffo need the Chinese on board to mediate.

So potentially this entire **** show is down to 'Little Man Syndrome'?

Those big tables are obviously compensating for something...

There are rumours going round that he is ill or immuno-compromised which may explain some of the bizarre social distancing he has been doing. That or he's read too much of the Big Coronavirus thread.

According to something I read, he has Parkinson's, although I don't know if that would explain things or not.

No, it would not. He's always been like this. It's just that the places he was attacking were far enough away for us to ignore him until now.

Agreed he's always been like this. I know Parkinsons won't turn someone into a psychopath. What I meant was, his change in appearance (looking heavier, more 'puffy' as someone described him) and the rambling unhinged speeches he's been delivering recently..

Talk on the radio the other day is there are rumours he has cancer and is on steroids

MattFalle

thedirector135 said:

Vlad reminds me of that actor in Attack of the Killer Potatoes.

vlad reminds me of a totalbellend, tbh

Dorset_Boy

Just been on a JP Morgan webinar and some interesting snippets.
49% of Russian exports have been energy related, with 37% of their exports being oil and oil products, and 8% of being gas. This means they would be far more likely to turn off gas supplies to Europe than oil supplies.
37.5% of Europe's gas supply comes from Russia. The impact of Putin's war will be much higher on gas prices than oil prices. Britian buys virtually no gas from Russia, but it's dependence on gas is pretty much the highest in Europe. Some countries are almost totally dependent on russia for their gas.
LNG may prove the solution for next winter if enough can be purchased and stock piled.

Inflation is expected to last longer and peak higher, at around 8%.

The forecasted interest rate rises in the US, UK and EU are likely to be much lower and slower paced than was thought in January.

Sherbank's share price has collapsed totally, by 99.9% on the GDR market (Global Depositary Receipts market).

Russia is entering a severe recession and is univestable.

Some of this is probably obvious, but interesting nonetheless.

rjsterry

pblakeney said:

thegreatdivide said:

pblakeney - Kherson is right by the Dnieper. It's on the west bank but it's smack bang next to it. It's an important port to the Black Sea.

Yeah, I can see that the river kicks west at the Black Sea.
Bigger concern is that the Russian controlled area is extended west and north of there. Odesa will be a major asset to capture too.

Have just been reading about the dangers of seeing a red area on a map and assuming that means entirely under Russian control (as opposed to where Russia holds the upper hand but the land is still contested). Important to remember that maps are not neutral factual documents.

thegreatdivide

Dorset_Boy said:

Just been on a JP Morgan webinar and some interesting snippets.
49% of Russian exports have been energy related, with 37% of their exports being oil and oil products, and 8% of being gas. This means they would be far more likely to turn off gas supplies to Europe than oil supplies.
37.5% of Europe's gas supply comes from Russia. The impact of Putin's war will be much higher on gas prices than oil prices. Britian buys virtually no gas from Russia, but it's dependence on gas is pretty much the highest in Europe. Some countries are almost totally dependent on russia for their gas.
LNG may prove the solution for next winter if enough can be purchased and stock piled.

Inflation is expected to last longer and peak higher, at around 8%.

The forecasted interest rate rises in the US, UK and EU are likely to be much lower and slower paced than was thought in January.

Sherbank's share price has collapsed totally, by 99.9% on the GDR market (Global Depositary Receipts market).

Russia is entering a severe recession and is univestable.

Some of this is probably obvious, but interesting nonetheless.

Gazprom, Lukoil and Sberbank are now penny stocks! It's nuts.

pblakeney

rjsterry said:

pblakeney said:

thegreatdivide said:

pblakeney - Kherson is right by the Dnieper. It's on the west bank but it's smack bang next to it. It's an important port to the Black Sea.

Yeah, I can see that the river kicks west at the Black Sea.
Bigger concern is that the Russian controlled area is extended west and north of there. Odesa will be a major asset to capture too.

Have just been reading about the dangers of seeing a red area on a map and assuming that means entirely under Russian control (as opposed to where Russia holds the upper hand but the land is still contested). Important to remember that maps are not neutral factual documents.

Yeahbut, I'd expect "our" maps to have less red than "their" maps.
Anyway, my original point was that they are not stopping at the Dneiper.

thedirector135

MattFalle said:

thedirector135 said:

Vlad reminds me of that actor in Attack of the Killer Potatoes.

vlad reminds me of a totalbellend, tbh

I concur. The West must like bellends then. They have been on their knees to him for long enough...

MattFalle

thedirector135 said:

MattFalle said:

thedirector135 said:

Vlad reminds me of that actor in Attack of the Killer Potatoes.

vlad reminds me of a totalbellend, tbh

I concur. The West must like bellends then. They have been on their knees to him for long enough...

well they voted in trump and de pffeffel and have had a Conservative govt for how long now so there's a theme going.

rjsterry

pblakeney said:

rjsterry said:

pblakeney said:

thegreatdivide said:

pblakeney - Kherson is right by the Dnieper. It's on the west bank but it's smack bang next to it. It's an important port to the Black Sea.

Yeah, I can see that the river kicks west at the Black Sea.
Bigger concern is that the Russian controlled area is extended west and north of there. Odesa will be a major asset to capture too.

Have just been reading about the dangers of seeing a red area on a map and assuming that means entirely under Russian control (as opposed to where Russia holds the upper hand but the land is still contested). Important to remember that maps are not neutral factual documents.

Yeahbut, I'd expect "our" maps to have less red than "their" maps.
Anyway, my original point was that they are not stopping at the Dneiper.

Not so much about what areas are shaded as what that shading denotes. Obviously if the map is showing areas with some Russian military presence that is < areas where Russian military has control < Russia has taken over local administrative control. The article was arguing that we should be careful that our maps aren't used to overstate how well the Russian military is doing.

surrey_commuter

Interesting to see Ukraine releasing videos of bashed up POWs saying how sorry they are.
I am sure that is illegal.

pblakeney

rjsterry said:

pblakeney said:

rjsterry said:

pblakeney said:

thegreatdivide said:

pblakeney - Kherson is right by the Dnieper. It's on the west bank but it's smack bang next to it. It's an important port to the Black Sea.

Yeah, I can see that the river kicks west at the Black Sea.
Bigger concern is that the Russian controlled area is extended west and north of there. Odesa will be a major asset to capture too.

Have just been reading about the dangers of seeing a red area on a map and assuming that means entirely under Russian control (as opposed to where Russia holds the upper hand but the land is still contested). Important to remember that maps are not neutral factual documents.

Yeahbut, I'd expect "our" maps to have less red than "their" maps.
Anyway, my original point was that they are not stopping at the Dneiper.

Not so much about what areas are shaded as what that shading denotes. Obviously if the map is showing areas with some Russian military presence that is < areas where Russian military has control < Russia has taken over local administrative control. The article was arguing that we should be careful that our maps aren't used to overstate how well the Russian military is doing.

Fair enough but right now administrative control is way down on my list of priorities.