Poo tin... Put@in...

rick_chasey

Chap who's a fair bit closer to it than I am basically said now the Russians have jettisoned the absolutely hairbrained invasion scheme, the pre-war assessment is not entirely invalid and that the initial invasion strategy made the Russians look considerably worse than they actually are.

Combine that with the current cost of attacking vs defending and you're unlikely to see much change over the next 6-9 months.

Apparently the tactic for Russia has been to fall back as soon as they are attacked, blow it to smithereens with artillery and take it back.

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

Chap who's a fair bit closer to it than I am basically said now the Russians have jettisoned the absolutely hairbrained invasion scheme, the pre-war assessment is not entirely invalid and that the initial invasion strategy made the Russians look considerably worse than they actually are.

Combine that with the current cost of attacking vs defending and you're unlikely to see much change over the next 6-9 months.

Apparently the tactic for Russia has been to fall back as soon as they are attacked, blow it to smithereens with artillery and take it back.

Pretty much the German tactics in WW1

Many people would say we only won that after starving them with a naval blockade after not decisively losing the battle of Jutland bay in 1916

Other views are available

ddraver

It's been Ivan's tactic since...well, Ivan...

surrey_commuter

ddraver said:

It's been Ivan's tactic since...well, Ivan...

It really has not

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Chap who's a fair bit closer to it than I am basically said now the Russians have jettisoned the absolutely hairbrained invasion scheme, the pre-war assessment is not entirely invalid and that the initial invasion strategy made the Russians look considerably worse than they actually are.

Combine that with the current cost of attacking vs defending and you're unlikely to see much change over the next 6-9 months.

Apparently the tactic for Russia has been to fall back as soon as they are attacked, blow it to smithereens with artillery and take it back.

Pretty much the German tactics in WW1

Many people would say we only won that after starving them with a naval blockade after not decisively losing the battle of Jutland bay in 1916

Other views are available

Yeah it does feel that way. He seemed to think you can avoid "fat trench" stalemate as he called it (because battlefield visibility is so high and so deep) is genuine combined arms, but that takes years to arrange.

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Chap who's a fair bit closer to it than I am basically said now the Russians have jettisoned the absolutely hairbrained invasion scheme, the pre-war assessment is not entirely invalid and that the initial invasion strategy made the Russians look considerably worse than they actually are.

Combine that with the current cost of attacking vs defending and you're unlikely to see much change over the next 6-9 months.

Apparently the tactic for Russia has been to fall back as soon as they are attacked, blow it to smithereens with artillery and take it back.

Pretty much the German tactics in WW1

Many people would say we only won that after starving them with a naval blockade after not decisively losing the battle of Jutland bay in 1916

Other views are available

Yeah it does feel that way. He seemed to think you can avoid "fat trench" stalemate as he called it (because battlefield visibility is so high and so deep) is genuine combined arms, but that takes years to arrange.

by which time you will have induced political/social/economic collapse in Russia.

or the Ukranian population will refuse to continue paying the butchers bill

or the US will decline the opportunity to keep funding Ukraine

rick_chasey

Dwindling US support is the main obvious risk.

I mean, it is outrageous bang for buck (around 5% of defence spending..!!) but US governance isn’t that rational with so many people voting Trump.

First.Aspect

It's heading to stalemate. Russia is currently just blocking, not trying to move forward. Neither side has the resource to advance I don't think.

Suspect Ukraine will break through defences at a slow rate than Russia is able to build new ones.

I'm no historian but isn't this very WWI?

briantrumpet

This is the kind of thing that Ukraine will keep on chipping away at, and is making Russia's ability to fight back harder, bit by bit by bit. I think Kyiv will be pleased with this one.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1701916268201144472

rick_chasey

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

TheBigBean

briantrumpet said:

This is the kind of thing the Ukraine will keep on chipping away at, and is making Russia's ability to fight back harder, bit by bit by bit. I think Kyiv will be pleased with this one.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1701916268201144472

The Ukraine

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.

I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features

pblakeney

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.

I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features

This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.

briantrumpet

TheBigBean said:

briantrumpet said:

This is the kind of thing the Ukraine will keep on chipping away at, and is making Russia's ability to fight back harder, bit by bit by bit. I think Kyiv will be pleased with this one.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1701916268201144472

The Ukraine

"The" was supposed to be "that". Bad form. I shall edit, out of shame.

briantrumpet

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

Indeed, but I still think/hope that patience and the 'chipping away' at Russia's ability to defend will make what might be incremental gains now turn into more significant ones eventually. My ignorant layman's guess is that they still have Crimea as the primary goal, and they are trying to make its defence too hard/expensive for the Russians.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1700943531982876803

pangolin

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.

I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features

This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.

Do you think we'd be pragmatic about someone taking everything south of the Thames?

Pross

pangolin said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.

I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features

This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.

Do you think we'd be pragmatic about someone taking everything south of the Thames?

Who’d want it?

rjsterry

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.

I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features

This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.

I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.

briantrumpet

rjsterry said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.

I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features

This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.

I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.

And I don't think for a minute that Ukraine is yet ready to chuck in the towel, given their determination and sacrifices so far. What they appear to be showing is that even with fairly limited weaponry, they can take out strategic stuff, and if with a few more fancy bits of kit can replicate this morning's haul, it'll make it harder and harder for Russia to hold onto Crimea. I think that's the prize Ukraine wants, to give Putin more than a bloody nose, and payback for his chutzpah.

pblakeney

rjsterry said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.

I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features

This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.

I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.

I don't think either side will settle.
It was optimism over expectation. Mores the pity.

surrey_commuter

pblakeney said:

rjsterry said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.

I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features

This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.

I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.

I don't think either side will settle.
It was optimism over expectation. Mores the pity.

If the population refuse to pay the butchers bill then they will have to settle.

I read somewhere that Zelensky has a 19 year old son, would be a bit embarassing if he dodged the draft.

surrey_commuter

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

Indeed, but I still think/hope that patience and the 'chipping away' at Russia's ability to defend will make what might be incremental gains now turn into more significant ones eventually. My ignorant layman's guess is that they still have Crimea as the primary goal, and they are trying to make its defence too hard/expensive for the Russians.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1700943531982876803

and yet they have retaken an area the size of Edinburgh.

If you take off the pro-Ukraine blinkers you have to acknowledge that the Russian defence along such a long front is miraculous. Unless Ukraine continues into winter then they will have another 6 months to strengthen

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rjsterry said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.

I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features

This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.

I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.

I don't think either side will settle.
It was optimism over expectation. Mores the pity.

If the population refuse to pay the butchers bill then they will have to settle.

I read somewhere that Zelensky has a 19 year old son, would be a bit embarassing if he dodged the draft.

I think having some released convicts murder your neighbour and abduct your kids is quite a strong motivator. They've seen what settling looks like since 2014 and in Syria or Georgia or Chechnya. It doesn't stop.

Why would Russia stop if they are rewarded with a bit of Ukraine for their troubles?

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

Indeed, but I still think/hope that patience and the 'chipping away' at Russia's ability to defend will make what might be incremental gains now turn into more significant ones eventually. My ignorant layman's guess is that they still have Crimea as the primary goal, and they are trying to make its defence too hard/expensive for the Russians.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1700943531982876803

and yet they have retaken an area the size of Edinburgh.

If you take off the pro-Ukraine blinkers you have to acknowledge that the Russian defence along such a long front is miraculous. Unless Ukraine continues into winter then they will have another 6 months to strengthen

There's nothing miraculous it's just numbers.

briantrumpet

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

Indeed, but I still think/hope that patience and the 'chipping away' at Russia's ability to defend will make what might be incremental gains now turn into more significant ones eventually. My ignorant layman's guess is that they still have Crimea as the primary goal, and they are trying to make its defence too hard/expensive for the Russians.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1700943531982876803

and yet they have retaken an area the size of Edinburgh.

If you take off the pro-Ukraine blinkers you have to acknowledge that the Russian defence along such a long front is miraculous. Unless Ukraine continues into winter then they will have another 6 months to strengthen

I know it's probably more wishful thinking than anything else, not least as I've never studied how such (literally) entrenched positions have been overcome in actual wars. It is a depressingly static conflict, on the larger scale.

surrey_commuter

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rjsterry said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.

I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features

This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.

I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.

I don't think either side will settle.
It was optimism over expectation. Mores the pity.

If the population refuse to pay the butchers bill then they will have to settle.

I read somewhere that Zelensky has a 19 year old son, would be a bit embarassing if he dodged the draft.

I think having some released convicts murder your neighbour and abduct your kids is quite a strong motivator. They've seen what settling looks like since 2014 and in Syria or Georgia or Chechnya. It doesn't stop.

Why would Russia stop if they are rewarded with a bit of Ukraine for their troubles?

but on a personal level it is you, your husband, father or son who is getting maimed or killed. You can run out of heroes.

surrey_commuter

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

Indeed, but I still think/hope that patience and the 'chipping away' at Russia's ability to defend will make what might be incremental gains now turn into more significant ones eventually. My ignorant layman's guess is that they still have Crimea as the primary goal, and they are trying to make its defence too hard/expensive for the Russians.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1700943531982876803

and yet they have retaken an area the size of Edinburgh.

If you take off the pro-Ukraine blinkers you have to acknowledge that the Russian defence along such a long front is miraculous. Unless Ukraine continues into winter then they will have another 6 months to strengthen

There's nothing miraculous it's just numbers.

obviously none of us know the full story but it seems to be far mre than numbers, they seem to have developed very effective tactics and defensive systems.

To not find a weak spot in a 600 mile frontline is remarkable.

My own suspicion is that without air superiorit it is extremely difficult and risky to amass forces.

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rjsterry said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.

I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features

This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.

I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.

I don't think either side will settle.
It was optimism over expectation. Mores the pity.

If the population refuse to pay the butchers bill then they will have to settle.

I read somewhere that Zelensky has a 19 year old son, would be a bit embarassing if he dodged the draft.

I think having some released convicts murder your neighbour and abduct your kids is quite a strong motivator. They've seen what settling looks like since 2014 and in Syria or Georgia or Chechnya. It doesn't stop.

Why would Russia stop if they are rewarded with a bit of Ukraine for their troubles?

but on a personal level it is you, your husband, father or son who is getting maimed or killed. You can run out of heroes.

I think that makes it easier. Supposing there is some settlement. There's absolutely nothing to stop Putin picking up where he left off launching missiles at Kyiv or elsewhere and restarting incursions once he has regrouped. Agreements with people like that are meaningless. Who would hold him to the agreement?

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

pblakeney said:

rjsterry said:

pblakeney said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.

I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features

This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.

I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.

I don't think either side will settle.
It was optimism over expectation. Mores the pity.

If the population refuse to pay the butchers bill then they will have to settle.

I read somewhere that Zelensky has a 19 year old son, would be a bit embarassing if he dodged the draft.

I think having some released convicts murder your neighbour and abduct your kids is quite a strong motivator. They've seen what settling looks like since 2014 and in Syria or Georgia or Chechnya. It doesn't stop.

Why would Russia stop if they are rewarded with a bit of Ukraine for their troubles?

but on a personal level it is you, your husband, father or son who is getting maimed or killed. You can run out of heroes.

You can't negotiate with Putin, or at least, if you do, you will end up losing.

He's geared up the entirety of Russia for this war. He will stop at nothing short of nuclear war to win it.

If you don't fully defeat them or at least cripple Russia to the point of regime change, how can you take any peace agreement as anything other than a chance for Russia to regroup and attack again?

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains

Indeed, but I still think/hope that patience and the 'chipping away' at Russia's ability to defend will make what might be incremental gains now turn into more significant ones eventually. My ignorant layman's guess is that they still have Crimea as the primary goal, and they are trying to make its defence too hard/expensive for the Russians.

https://twitter.com/Tendar/status/1700943531982876803

and yet they have retaken an area the size of Edinburgh.

If you take off the pro-Ukraine blinkers you have to acknowledge that the Russian defence along such a long front is miraculous. Unless Ukraine continues into winter then they will have another 6 months to strengthen

There's nothing miraculous it's just numbers.

obviously none of us know the full story but it seems to be far mre than numbers, they seem to have developed very effective tactics and defensive systems.

To not find a weak spot in a 600 mile frontline is remarkable.

My own suspicion is that without air superiorit it is extremely difficult and risky to amass forces.

I do think that Ukraine's allies drip feeding ordnance is not helping.