Poo tin... Put@in...
Comments
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Chap who's a fair bit closer to it than I am basically said now the Russians have jettisoned the absolutely hairbrained invasion scheme, the pre-war assessment is not entirely invalid and that the initial invasion strategy made the Russians look considerably worse than they actually are.
Combine that with the current cost of attacking vs defending and you're unlikely to see much change over the next 6-9 months.
Apparently the tactic for Russia has been to fall back as soon as they are attacked, blow it to smithereens with artillery and take it back.
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Pretty much the German tactics in WW1rick_chasey said:Chap who's a fair bit closer to it than I am basically said now the Russians have jettisoned the absolutely hairbrained invasion scheme, the pre-war assessment is not entirely invalid and that the initial invasion strategy made the Russians look considerably worse than they actually are.
Combine that with the current cost of attacking vs defending and you're unlikely to see much change over the next 6-9 months.
Apparently the tactic for Russia has been to fall back as soon as they are attacked, blow it to smithereens with artillery and take it back.
Many people would say we only won that after starving them with a naval blockade after not decisively losing the battle of Jutland bay in 1916
Other views are available0 -
It really has notddraver said:It's been Ivan's tactic since...well, Ivan...
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Yeah it does feel that way. He seemed to think you can avoid "fat trench" stalemate as he called it (because battlefield visibility is so high and so deep) is genuine combined arms, but that takes years to arrange.surrey_commuter said:
Pretty much the German tactics in WW1rick_chasey said:Chap who's a fair bit closer to it than I am basically said now the Russians have jettisoned the absolutely hairbrained invasion scheme, the pre-war assessment is not entirely invalid and that the initial invasion strategy made the Russians look considerably worse than they actually are.
Combine that with the current cost of attacking vs defending and you're unlikely to see much change over the next 6-9 months.
Apparently the tactic for Russia has been to fall back as soon as they are attacked, blow it to smithereens with artillery and take it back.
Many people would say we only won that after starving them with a naval blockade after not decisively losing the battle of Jutland bay in 1916
Other views are available0 -
by which time you will have induced political/social/economic collapse in Russia.rick_chasey said:
Yeah it does feel that way. He seemed to think you can avoid "fat trench" stalemate as he called it (because battlefield visibility is so high and so deep) is genuine combined arms, but that takes years to arrange.surrey_commuter said:
Pretty much the German tactics in WW1rick_chasey said:Chap who's a fair bit closer to it than I am basically said now the Russians have jettisoned the absolutely hairbrained invasion scheme, the pre-war assessment is not entirely invalid and that the initial invasion strategy made the Russians look considerably worse than they actually are.
Combine that with the current cost of attacking vs defending and you're unlikely to see much change over the next 6-9 months.
Apparently the tactic for Russia has been to fall back as soon as they are attacked, blow it to smithereens with artillery and take it back.
Many people would say we only won that after starving them with a naval blockade after not decisively losing the battle of Jutland bay in 1916
Other views are available
or the Ukranian population will refuse to continue paying the butchers bill
or the US will decline the opportunity to keep funding Ukraine
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Dwindling US support is the main obvious risk.
I mean, it is outrageous bang for buck (around 5% of defence spending..!!) but US governance isn’t that rational with so many people voting Trump.0 -
It's heading to stalemate. Russia is currently just blocking, not trying to move forward. Neither side has the resource to advance I don't think.
Suspect Ukraine will break through defences at a slow rate than Russia is able to build new ones.
I'm no historian but isn't this very WWI?0 -
This is the kind of thing that Ukraine will keep on chipping away at, and is making Russia's ability to fight back harder, bit by bit by bit. I think Kyiv will be pleased with this one.
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briantrumpet said:
This is the kind of thing the Ukraine will keep on chipping away at, and is making Russia's ability to fight back harder, bit by bit by bit. I think Kyiv will be pleased with this one.
TheUkraine0 -
It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features
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This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.surrey_commuter said:
It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water featuresThe above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
TheBigBean said:briantrumpet said:
This is the kind of thing the Ukraine will keep on chipping away at, and is making Russia's ability to fight back harder, bit by bit by bit. I think Kyiv will be pleased with this one.
TheUkraine
"The" was supposed to be "that". Bad form. I shall edit, out of shame.0 -
Indeed, but I still think/hope that patience and the 'chipping away' at Russia's ability to defend will make what might be incremental gains now turn into more significant ones eventually. My ignorant layman's guess is that they still have Crimea as the primary goal, and they are trying to make its defence too hard/expensive for the Russians.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
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Do you think we'd be pragmatic about someone taking everything south of the Thames?pblakeney said:
This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.surrey_commuter said:
It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Who’d want it?pangolin said:
Do you think we'd be pragmatic about someone taking everything south of the Thames?pblakeney said:
This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.surrey_commuter said:
It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features0 -
I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.pblakeney said:
This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.surrey_commuter said:
It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
rjsterry said:
I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.pblakeney said:
This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.surrey_commuter said:
It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features
And I don't think for a minute that Ukraine is yet ready to chuck in the towel, given their determination and sacrifices so far. What they appear to be showing is that even with fairly limited weaponry, they can take out strategic stuff, and if with a few more fancy bits of kit can replicate this morning's haul, it'll make it harder and harder for Russia to hold onto Crimea. I think that's the prize Ukraine wants, to give Putin more than a bloody nose, and payback for his chutzpah.0 -
I don't think either side will settle.rjsterry said:
I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.pblakeney said:
This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.surrey_commuter said:
It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features
It was optimism over expectation. Mores the pity.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
If the population refuse to pay the butchers bill then they will have to settle.pblakeney said:
I don't think either side will settle.rjsterry said:
I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.pblakeney said:
This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.surrey_commuter said:
It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features
It was optimism over expectation. Mores the pity.
I read somewhere that Zelensky has a 19 year old son, would be a bit embarassing if he dodged the draft.0 -
and yet they have retaken an area the size of Edinburgh.briantrumpet said:
Indeed, but I still think/hope that patience and the 'chipping away' at Russia's ability to defend will make what might be incremental gains now turn into more significant ones eventually. My ignorant layman's guess is that they still have Crimea as the primary goal, and they are trying to make its defence too hard/expensive for the Russians.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
If you take off the pro-Ukraine blinkers you have to acknowledge that the Russian defence along such a long front is miraculous. Unless Ukraine continues into winter then they will have another 6 months to strengthen0 -
I think having some released convicts murder your neighbour and abduct your kids is quite a strong motivator. They've seen what settling looks like since 2014 and in Syria or Georgia or Chechnya. It doesn't stop.surrey_commuter said:
If the population refuse to pay the butchers bill then they will have to settle.pblakeney said:
I don't think either side will settle.rjsterry said:
I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.pblakeney said:
This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.surrey_commuter said:
It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features
It was optimism over expectation. Mores the pity.
I read somewhere that Zelensky has a 19 year old son, would be a bit embarassing if he dodged the draft.
Why would Russia stop if they are rewarded with a bit of Ukraine for their troubles?1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition1 -
There's nothing miraculous it's just numbers.surrey_commuter said:
and yet they have retaken an area the size of Edinburgh.briantrumpet said:
Indeed, but I still think/hope that patience and the 'chipping away' at Russia's ability to defend will make what might be incremental gains now turn into more significant ones eventually. My ignorant layman's guess is that they still have Crimea as the primary goal, and they are trying to make its defence too hard/expensive for the Russians.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
If you take off the pro-Ukraine blinkers you have to acknowledge that the Russian defence along such a long front is miraculous. Unless Ukraine continues into winter then they will have another 6 months to strengthen1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
surrey_commuter said:
and yet they have retaken an area the size of Edinburgh.briantrumpet said:
Indeed, but I still think/hope that patience and the 'chipping away' at Russia's ability to defend will make what might be incremental gains now turn into more significant ones eventually. My ignorant layman's guess is that they still have Crimea as the primary goal, and they are trying to make its defence too hard/expensive for the Russians.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
If you take off the pro-Ukraine blinkers you have to acknowledge that the Russian defence along such a long front is miraculous. Unless Ukraine continues into winter then they will have another 6 months to strengthen
I know it's probably more wishful thinking than anything else, not least as I've never studied how such (literally) entrenched positions have been overcome in actual wars. It is a depressingly static conflict, on the larger scale.0 -
but on a personal level it is you, your husband, father or son who is getting maimed or killed. You can run out of heroes.rjsterry said:
I think having some released convicts murder your neighbour and abduct your kids is quite a strong motivator. They've seen what settling looks like since 2014 and in Syria or Georgia or Chechnya. It doesn't stop.surrey_commuter said:
If the population refuse to pay the butchers bill then they will have to settle.pblakeney said:
I don't think either side will settle.rjsterry said:
I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.pblakeney said:
This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.surrey_commuter said:
It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features
It was optimism over expectation. Mores the pity.
I read somewhere that Zelensky has a 19 year old son, would be a bit embarassing if he dodged the draft.
Why would Russia stop if they are rewarded with a bit of Ukraine for their troubles?0 -
obviously none of us know the full story but it seems to be far mre than numbers, they seem to have developed very effective tactics and defensive systems.rjsterry said:
There's nothing miraculous it's just numbers.surrey_commuter said:
and yet they have retaken an area the size of Edinburgh.briantrumpet said:
Indeed, but I still think/hope that patience and the 'chipping away' at Russia's ability to defend will make what might be incremental gains now turn into more significant ones eventually. My ignorant layman's guess is that they still have Crimea as the primary goal, and they are trying to make its defence too hard/expensive for the Russians.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
If you take off the pro-Ukraine blinkers you have to acknowledge that the Russian defence along such a long front is miraculous. Unless Ukraine continues into winter then they will have another 6 months to strengthen
To not find a weak spot in a 600 mile frontline is remarkable.
My own suspicion is that without air superiorit it is extremely difficult and risky to amass forces.0 -
I think that makes it easier. Supposing there is some settlement. There's absolutely nothing to stop Putin picking up where he left off launching missiles at Kyiv or elsewhere and restarting incursions once he has regrouped. Agreements with people like that are meaningless. Who would hold him to the agreement?surrey_commuter said:
but on a personal level it is you, your husband, father or son who is getting maimed or killed. You can run out of heroes.rjsterry said:
I think having some released convicts murder your neighbour and abduct your kids is quite a strong motivator. They've seen what settling looks like since 2014 and in Syria or Georgia or Chechnya. It doesn't stop.surrey_commuter said:
If the population refuse to pay the butchers bill then they will have to settle.pblakeney said:
I don't think either side will settle.rjsterry said:
I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.pblakeney said:
This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.surrey_commuter said:
It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features
It was optimism over expectation. Mores the pity.
I read somewhere that Zelensky has a 19 year old son, would be a bit embarassing if he dodged the draft.
Why would Russia stop if they are rewarded with a bit of Ukraine for their troubles?1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
You can't negotiate with Putin, or at least, if you do, you will end up losing.surrey_commuter said:
but on a personal level it is you, your husband, father or son who is getting maimed or killed. You can run out of heroes.rjsterry said:
I think having some released convicts murder your neighbour and abduct your kids is quite a strong motivator. They've seen what settling looks like since 2014 and in Syria or Georgia or Chechnya. It doesn't stop.surrey_commuter said:
If the population refuse to pay the butchers bill then they will have to settle.pblakeney said:
I don't think either side will settle.rjsterry said:
I think you two are both kidding yourselves that Putin will settle.pblakeney said:
This makes sense and it would probably save a lot of time and lives if both sides become pragmatic about it.surrey_commuter said:
It will be muddy soon giving the Russians another several months moths to build defences.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
I have not changed my mind that the new border will be on the water features
It was optimism over expectation. Mores the pity.
I read somewhere that Zelensky has a 19 year old son, would be a bit embarassing if he dodged the draft.
Why would Russia stop if they are rewarded with a bit of Ukraine for their troubles?
He's geared up the entirety of Russia for this war. He will stop at nothing short of nuclear war to win it.
If you don't fully defeat them or at least cripple Russia to the point of regime change, how can you take any peace agreement as anything other than a chance for Russia to regroup and attack again?
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I do think that Ukraine's allies drip feeding ordnance is not helping.surrey_commuter said:
obviously none of us know the full story but it seems to be far mre than numbers, they seem to have developed very effective tactics and defensive systems.rjsterry said:
There's nothing miraculous it's just numbers.surrey_commuter said:
and yet they have retaken an area the size of Edinburgh.briantrumpet said:
Indeed, but I still think/hope that patience and the 'chipping away' at Russia's ability to defend will make what might be incremental gains now turn into more significant ones eventually. My ignorant layman's guess is that they still have Crimea as the primary goal, and they are trying to make its defence too hard/expensive for the Russians.rick_chasey said:Comes a point where it needs to translate into gains
If you take off the pro-Ukraine blinkers you have to acknowledge that the Russian defence along such a long front is miraculous. Unless Ukraine continues into winter then they will have another 6 months to strengthen
To not find a weak spot in a 600 mile frontline is remarkable.
My own suspicion is that without air superiorit it is extremely difficult and risky to amass forces.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0
