Poo tin... Put@in...

briantrumpet

This might counter, to a degree, SC's pessimism (or realism)... from someone who appears to know a lot more about war than I ever will (thankfully)

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1703759074855174400.html

https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1703759074855174400

Pross

The biggest issue I can see with all that is that it is assuming Ukraine is conducting operations with ‘artistry’ but Russia isn’t. It seems a big leap and an assumption that Russia doesn’t have a plan that it is executing.

First.Aspect

That, and the word "materiel".

briantrumpet

Pross said:

The biggest issue I can see with all that is that it is assuming Ukraine is conducting operations with ‘artistry’ but Russia isn’t. It seems a big leap and an assumption that Russia doesn’t have a plan that it is executing.

I'd guess that's because when you've dug in and are defending against an opposition trying to break your defences, you've got less room for 'artistry', whereas breaking down those defences, as Ukraine is trying to do with strategic actions against supply lines and a combination of driving in wedges and keeping the defenders guessing elsewhere gives more opportunity for creative action, rather than just reaction.

I've not seen the Russian personnel losses for a while, so I'm not sure if they are still just throwing meat into the grinder... but that wouldn't count as artistry.

surrey_commuter

briantrumpet said:

This might counter, to a degree, SC's pessimism (or realism)... from someone who appears to know a lot more about war than I ever will (thankfully)

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1703759074855174400.html

https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1703759074855174400

I don't know if it is her or the format but that for me is unreadable.

Could you summarise what she is saying

Pross

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

This might counter, to a degree, SC's pessimism (or realism)... from someone who appears to know a lot more about war than I ever will (thankfully)

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1703759074855174400.html

https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1703759074855174400

I don't know if it is her or the format but that for me is unreadable.

Could you summarise what she is saying

"I know all about war and Ukraine is doing a better job than Russia".

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

This might counter, to a degree, SC's pessimism (or realism)... from someone who appears to know a lot more about war than I ever will (thankfully)

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1703759074855174400.html

https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1703759074855174400

I don't know if it is her or the format but that for me is unreadable.

Could you summarise what she is saying

Waffle.

pangolin

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

This might counter, to a degree, SC's pessimism (or realism)... from someone who appears to know a lot more about war than I ever will (thankfully)

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1703759074855174400.html

https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1703759074855174400

I don't know if it is her or the format but that for me is unreadable.

Could you summarise what she is saying

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1703759074855174400.html

surrey_commuter

Pross said:

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

This might counter, to a degree, SC's pessimism (or realism)... from someone who appears to know a lot more about war than I ever will (thankfully)

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1703759074855174400.html

https://twitter.com/JennyCafarella/status/1703759074855174400

I don't know if it is her or the format but that for me is unreadable.

Could you summarise what she is saying

"I know all about war and Ukraine is doing a better job than Russia".

Thank god for that I was interpreting it as "too early to say" and was haunted by visions of her moving on to tell us to get over it

thegreatdivide

briantrumpet said:

Pross said:

The biggest issue I can see with all that is that it is assuming Ukraine is conducting operations with ‘artistry’ but Russia isn’t. It seems a big leap and an assumption that Russia doesn’t have a plan that it is executing.

I'd guess that's because when you've dug in and are defending against an opposition trying to break your defences, you've got less room for 'artistry', whereas breaking down those defences, as Ukraine is trying to do with strategic actions against supply lines and a combination of driving in wedges and keeping the defenders guessing elsewhere gives more opportunity for creative action, rather than just reaction.

I've not seen the Russian personnel losses for a while, so I'm not sure if they are still just throwing meat into the grinder... but that wouldn't count as artistry.

Agreed.

For a rough idea of how Russia is fairing albeit in terms of tanks, guns, aircraft etc, here's the latest Oryx tally of equipment losses. It's HUGE.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

The argument 'ah but Russia has tens of thousands of tanks, planes etc in reserve' is now undeniable nonsense. They quite simply don't. They're relying on defensive lines made up of artillery, hundreds of thousands of mines and whatever human fodder they can muster.

It's also worth noting that on the commercial / civilian flight side of things there seems to be a growing number of major hydraulic failures and subsequent forced landings / crashes going on in the past week or so. I'd wager that sanctions are really biting and any spare resource is being syphoned off to the military.

surrey_commuter

thegreatdivide said:

briantrumpet said:

Pross said:

The biggest issue I can see with all that is that it is assuming Ukraine is conducting operations with ‘artistry’ but Russia isn’t. It seems a big leap and an assumption that Russia doesn’t have a plan that it is executing.

I'd guess that's because when you've dug in and are defending against an opposition trying to break your defences, you've got less room for 'artistry', whereas breaking down those defences, as Ukraine is trying to do with strategic actions against supply lines and a combination of driving in wedges and keeping the defenders guessing elsewhere gives more opportunity for creative action, rather than just reaction.

I've not seen the Russian personnel losses for a while, so I'm not sure if they are still just throwing meat into the grinder... but that wouldn't count as artistry.

Agreed.

For a rough idea of how Russia is fairing albeit in terms of tanks, guns, aircraft etc, here's the latest Oryx tally of equipment losses. It's HUGE.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

The argument 'ah but Russia has tens of thousands of tanks, planes etc in reserve' is now undeniable nonsense. They quite simply don't. They're relying on defensive lines made up of artillery, hundreds of thousands of mines and whatever human fodder they can muster.

It's also worth noting that on the commercial / civilian flight side of things there seems to be a growing number of major hydraulic failures and subsequent forced landings / crashes going on in the past week or so. I'd wager that sanctions are really biting and any spare resource is being syphoned off to the military.

Can you throw some light on the war in the air?

briantrumpet

surrey_commuter said:

thegreatdivide said:

briantrumpet said:

Pross said:

The biggest issue I can see with all that is that it is assuming Ukraine is conducting operations with ‘artistry’ but Russia isn’t. It seems a big leap and an assumption that Russia doesn’t have a plan that it is executing.

I'd guess that's because when you've dug in and are defending against an opposition trying to break your defences, you've got less room for 'artistry', whereas breaking down those defences, as Ukraine is trying to do with strategic actions against supply lines and a combination of driving in wedges and keeping the defenders guessing elsewhere gives more opportunity for creative action, rather than just reaction.

I've not seen the Russian personnel losses for a while, so I'm not sure if they are still just throwing meat into the grinder... but that wouldn't count as artistry.

Agreed.

For a rough idea of how Russia is fairing albeit in terms of tanks, guns, aircraft etc, here's the latest Oryx tally of equipment losses. It's HUGE.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

The argument 'ah but Russia has tens of thousands of tanks, planes etc in reserve' is now undeniable nonsense. They quite simply don't. They're relying on defensive lines made up of artillery, hundreds of thousands of mines and whatever human fodder they can muster.

It's also worth noting that on the commercial / civilian flight side of things there seems to be a growing number of major hydraulic failures and subsequent forced landings / crashes going on in the past week or so. I'd wager that sanctions are really biting and any spare resource is being syphoned off to the military.

Can you throw some light on the war in the air?

From the bits I've read, Ukraine is only able to make the marginal gains on the ground it has been doing because there's actually not enough threat from the air, so incrmental increases in clever stuff from the US and elsewhere, and F16's with trained pilots in the pipeline, could have a significant effect.

briantrumpet

Another few bricks knocked out of the wall...

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1705272408620277986

rjsterry

And a dead admiral by the sounds of it.

briantrumpet

That they could get that through in clear daytime skies on a strategic target suggests that Russian air defence ain't up to much. Looks like it had already been hit by another too.

rick_chasey

Turkey must be loving this.

surrey_commuter

briantrumpet said:

That they could get that through in clear daytime skies on a strategic target suggests that Russian air defence ain't up to much. Looks like it had already been hit by another too.

Frankly I am amazed shooting down missiles in not more high tech, what are they using?

briantrumpet

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

That they could get that through in clear daytime skies on a strategic target suggests that Russian air defence ain't up to much. Looks like it had already been hit by another too.

Frankly I am amazed shooting down missiles in not more high tech, what are they using?

No idea. Russia claimed that they had shot all these down, but seems like they were telling porkies. Seems like the missile might have been a UK one. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/storm-shadow-cruise-cost-ukraine-war-b2411194.html

surrey_commuter

briantrumpet said:

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

That they could get that through in clear daytime skies on a strategic target suggests that Russian air defence ain't up to much. Looks like it had already been hit by another too.

Frankly I am amazed shooting down missiles in not more high tech, what are they using?

No idea. Russia claimed that they had shot all these down, but seems like they were telling porkies. Seems like the missile might have been a UK one. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/storm-shadow-cruise-cost-ukraine-war-b2411194.html

just seems a bit outdated that their anti missile defences are more effective in daylight

briantrumpet

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

That they could get that through in clear daytime skies on a strategic target suggests that Russian air defence ain't up to much. Looks like it had already been hit by another too.

Frankly I am amazed shooting down missiles in not more high tech, what are they using?

No idea. Russia claimed that they had shot all these down, but seems like they were telling porkies. Seems like the missile might have been a UK one. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/storm-shadow-cruise-cost-ukraine-war-b2411194.html

just seems a bit outdated that their anti missile defences are more effective in daylight

I've really no idea, though I suspect that their technology might not be quite as effective as they would claim.

On the subject of Russian tech not always being quite what it should have been, anyone remember 'Concordski'? Big oops.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEIAMM13RFQ

thegreatdivide

briantrumpet said:

On the subject of Russian tech not always being quite what it should have been, anyone remember 'Concordski'? Big oops.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEIAMM13RFQ

Put it in the pile next to the Buran space shuttle.

First.Aspect

thegreatdivide said:

briantrumpet said:

On the subject of Russian tech not always being quite what it should have been, anyone remember 'Concordski'? Big oops.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bEIAMM13RFQ

Put it in the pile next to the Buran space shuttle.

Both were illustrations of remarkable Russian shoestring engineering. For all we know, the Buran would have been better than the Nasa shuttle - which itself wasn't exactly safe. And Concordski was designed and built extremely quickly. Okay it was supposedly deafening inside and had a tendency not to work, and needed parachutes to avoid running off the end of most air strips, so it wasn't perfect.

rick_chasey

One thing the Russians and the Chinese share in common.

An outstanding ability to copy the west on a budget

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

One thing the Russians and the Chinese share in common.

An outstanding ability to copy the west on a budget

I think you are using two examples to badly underestimate two cultures with a deep and quite impressive scientific and technological history.

rick_chasey

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

One thing the Russians and the Chinese share in common.

An outstanding ability to copy the west on a budget

I think you are using two examples to badly underestimate two cultures with a deep and quite impressive scientific and technological history.

Have a google on chinese military copies. It's quite remarkable.

China & Russia have long been kings of intellectual property espionage; Russia less so more recently.

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

One thing the Russians and the Chinese share in common.

An outstanding ability to copy the west on a budget

I think you are using two examples to badly underestimate two cultures with a deep and quite impressive scientific and technological history.

Have a google on chinese military copies. It's quite remarkable.

China & Russia have long been kings of intellectual property espionage; Russia less so more recently.

Yes, I know. Have direct professional experience. It cuts both ways though, don't kid yourself. If it's good, someone will try to copy it or improve on it.

briantrumpet

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

One thing the Russians and the Chinese share in common.

An outstanding ability to copy the west on a budget

I think you are using two examples to badly underestimate two cultures with a deep and quite impressive scientific and technological history.

Have a google on chinese military copies. It's quite remarkable.

China & Russia have long been kings of intellectual property espionage; Russia less so more recently.

It's probably apocryphal, but I seem to remember hearing (pre Twitter days) that the Concord team knew they were being spied on, so dropped in some faulty figures. But that's probably as reliable as the suggestion that carrots help you see in the dark.

rick_chasey

briantrumpet said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

rick_chasey said:

One thing the Russians and the Chinese share in common.

An outstanding ability to copy the west on a budget

I think you are using two examples to badly underestimate two cultures with a deep and quite impressive scientific and technological history.

Have a google on chinese military copies. It's quite remarkable.

China & Russia have long been kings of intellectual property espionage; Russia less so more recently.

It's probably apocryphal, but I seem to remember hearing (pre Twitter days) that the Concord team knew they were being spied on, so dropped in some faulty figures. But that's probably as reliable as the suggestion that carrots help you see in the dark.

I'll use that one next time I make a f*ckup typo in my presentation.

pblakeney

Can't go into details but working on an MOD project based on old microfiche drawings which were in such bad condition it was a standing joke to see if the Russians would supply a better copy.

shirley_basso

Post from an ex-SAS soldier popped up on social media. From Friday:

Russian forces are being depleted and degraded all along the front lines in Ukraine. In the east Russia pours poorly trained, badly armed conscripts across fields covered by prepared UA artillery.

It was reported this week that Russian authorities have ordered 250,000 death certificates. This closely aligns with western intelligence estimates of 265,000 Russian deaths. Where Ukraine has penetrated first line defences they are finding unmanned areas in the second line.

Recently, it has become clear in Crimea that Ukrainian attacks have degraded Russian air defences so much that drones are managing to strike communications, logistical supplies and headquarter groups with relative ease. At the same time the number of drones and missiles that Russia can respond with is dropping weekly. Russia still concentrates most of its air attack efforts on random civilian target and the grain supplies out of Ukraine.

Russia's navy has found themselves vulnerable to air and marine drones. Land based anti-ship missiles keep them away from coastal areas. Russian ships struggle to function in the Black Sea and are withdrawing further east.

In the south UA advances are bringing strategically vital pinch points like Tokmak in range of 155mm artillery which further depgrades the Russian ability to maintain its defences. Taking Tokmak will cut the land bridge supply route, and the Kerch Bridge will inevitably be hit again in the near future cutting the favoured route for a Russian retreat.

Inside Russia, anti-Putin partisans and UA special forces are successfully destroying aircraft on the ground and fuel supplies.

In summary:

Weakened ground to air defences, reduced airpower, inadequate manpower, poor communications, insufficient logistical supply and a fear that routes of retreat will be cut soon, mean that Russian soldiers are looking forward to a lonely and deathly cold winter.