Poo tin... Put@in...

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  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,851
    Speaking to BBC World Service Newshour, Saks says just before Russia began its 2022 attack on Ukraine the world thought Russia had “the second most powerful army in the world”.

    “Yesterday everybody knew that Russia was the second most powerful army in Ukraine and today we're seeing how... the Russian army is becoming the second most powerful army in Russia."
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,280
    I'm sure the Ukrainians will be exercising their usual care and attention rather than just charging in. It's hard to see how this will be bad for them though in terms of the immediate impact on Russian combat capabilities.

    I suppose the wider uncertainties come from what might happen if Russia is destabilised. Also there rumours that Wagner is trying to get its hands on nukes.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • orraloon
    orraloon Posts: 13,227
    Has PooStain done a runner? His private jet reported tracked leaving Moscow heading NW.
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,645
    That would be a great outcome. Long civil war not great for anyone.
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    pangolin said:

    That would be a great outcome. Long civil war not great for anyone.
    None of this is a great outcome tbh, it’s just relative.

    I’ve read a couple books on Putin so hardly an expert but the overriding theme is that he was the KGB continuity candidate.

    Back in the 70s they managed the growing gap in money and tech by basically smuggling stuff out and trading stuff and lining their own pockets and to fund KGB operations so when the collapse happened in the early 90s, the main people who had experience in free market stuff were the KGB guys.

    They wanted to keep the racket going and Putin, who was part of all of that, ended up being the candidate.

    This has basically carried on, and when they got too powerful Putin basically stole it off them to keep lining his and his mate’s pockets.

    Anyway, oversimplified, probably wrong, but id have thought if Putin threatens the KGB continuity I can easily imagine they move against him.

    But a murderous, walking war crime former celebrity TV chef is hardly the friend of civilisation, and even if he unseats Putin, what we get is unlikely to be very different, aside from perhaps ending the war (which would be a result tbf)
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,645
    Sure, I mean given where things are now.
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,540
    Events moving quickly.
    Wagner group no longer heading for Moscow. (For now)
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,645

    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,645

    Events moving quickly.
    Wagner group no longer heading for Moscow. (For now)

    Have they heard the rumours he's now in St Petersburg?
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • shirley_basso
    shirley_basso Posts: 6,195

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Events moving quickly.
    Wagner group no longer heading for Moscow. (For now)

    Yeah. It is the most head spinning thing. Baffling the whole thing.
  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 4,023
    What a giant sack of snakes.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,210
    All sorts of things being thought... including that there's been an agreement between Putin & Prigozhin to change the leadership of the Russian Army, and that Wagner mercenaries mostly scarper back to Africa. Can't imagine the whole episode is going to inspire the Russian cannon fodder in Ukraine.

  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 4,023

    pangolin said:

    That would be a great outcome. Long civil war not great for anyone.
    None of this is a great outcome tbh, it’s just relative.

    I’ve read a couple books on Putin so hardly an expert but the overriding theme is that he was the KGB continuity candidate.

    Back in the 70s they managed the growing gap in money and tech by basically smuggling stuff out and trading stuff and lining their own pockets and to fund KGB operations so when the collapse happened in the early 90s, the main people who had experience in free market stuff were the KGB guys.

    They wanted to keep the racket going and Putin, who was part of all of that, ended up being the candidate.

    This has basically carried on, and when they got too powerful Putin basically stole it off them to keep lining his and his mate’s pockets.

    Anyway, oversimplified, probably wrong, but id have thought if Putin threatens the KGB continuity I can easily imagine they move against him.

    But a murderous, walking war crime former celebrity TV chef is hardly the friend of civilisation, and even if he unseats Putin, what we get is unlikely to be very different, aside from perhaps ending the war (which would be a result tbf)
    All that poses the question that if you've got the country stitched up and billions of dollars in the bank then why start the war in the first place?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited June 2023
    All goes to your head doesn’t it.

    I mean, if your mercenary army led by a celebrity TV chef can go from the Ukrainian border to Moscow in 24hrs pretty unimpeded you can see why Russia has, for centuries, sought to push the Western border as far away from Moscow as possible > defence in depth is all it has.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    It’s gotta encourage the US to throw more money in.

    This is pretty good value for money for smacking Russia about
  • shirley_basso
    shirley_basso Posts: 6,195
    Where are we up to now?

    Presume the West had a good opportunuty to encourage Wagner further into Russia - but he appears to have been bought out, although I think he's a dead man walking.

    Attritional advance by Ukraine is expected given trenches and mines, however I imagine there's very little once that defensive line is broken.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,092
    I think the Wagner guy will turn out to be a stalking horse.
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,540
    Prigozhin might want to be careful about what he touches, eats, drinks, and be careful in the vicinity of stairs, balconies and windows. :D
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,280

    Prigozhin might want to be careful about what he touches, eats, drinks, and be careful in the vicinity of stairs, balconies and windows. :D

    Funny you should mention that, as its being reported he is at a hotel in Minsk in a room that has no windows :)
    https://standard.co.uk/news/world/wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-belarus-minsk-russia-vladimir-putin-b1090705.html
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,460
    Stevo_666 said:

    Prigozhin might want to be careful about what he touches, eats, drinks, and be careful in the vicinity of stairs, balconies and windows. :D

    Funny you should mention that, as its being reported he is at a hotel in Minsk in a room that has no windows :)
    https://standard.co.uk/news/world/wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-belarus-minsk-russia-vladimir-putin-b1090705.html
    He'll probably manage a mysterious accident where he somehow falls through an air vent.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Pross said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Prigozhin might want to be careful about what he touches, eats, drinks, and be careful in the vicinity of stairs, balconies and windows. :D

    Funny you should mention that, as its being reported he is at a hotel in Minsk in a room that has no windows :)
    https://standard.co.uk/news/world/wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-belarus-minsk-russia-vladimir-putin-b1090705.html
    He'll probably manage a mysterious accident where he somehow falls through an air vent.
    my favourite is to roll himself up in a carpet, carry himself into the middle of a field and then commit suicide by shooting himself in the head
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,255
    edited June 2023

    Pross said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Prigozhin might want to be careful about what he touches, eats, drinks, and be careful in the vicinity of stairs, balconies and windows. :D

    Funny you should mention that, as its being reported he is at a hotel in Minsk in a room that has no windows :)
    https://standard.co.uk/news/world/wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-belarus-minsk-russia-vladimir-putin-b1090705.html
    He'll probably manage a mysterious accident where he somehow falls through an air vent.
    my favourite is to roll himself up in a carpet, carry himself into the middle of a field and then commit suicide by shooting himself in the head
    Twice, to be sure.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,210
    Pross said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Prigozhin might want to be careful about what he touches, eats, drinks, and be careful in the vicinity of stairs, balconies and windows. :D

    Funny you should mention that, as its being reported he is at a hotel in Minsk in a room that has no windows :)
    https://standard.co.uk/news/world/wagner-group-yevgeny-prigozhin-belarus-minsk-russia-vladimir-putin-b1090705.html
    He'll probably manage a mysterious accident where he somehow falls through an air vent.

    Russian lifts maybe don't have the best safety record.
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,258
    So, iirc, the Wagner group was iro 50,000 mercenaries. Probably more dedicated and more battle hardened than the demoralised Russian troops.
    What does those missing 50k men translate to in terms of Russian resistance?
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • super_davo
    super_davo Posts: 1,214
    pinno said:

    So, iirc, the Wagner group was iro 50,000 mercenaries. Probably more dedicated and more battle hardened than the demoralised Russian troops.
    What does those missing 50k men translate to in terms of Russian resistance?

    Thought they were (mostly) being absorbed into the main Russian army. Of course not all will be, and those that are will then be led by incompetants therefore no longer as effective, but it's not a massive drop away in troop numbers.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Not long ago we were reading reports that Wagner troops were being used as genuine canon fodder to highlight Ukrainian positions so regular Russian army could follow up.

    Then they mutiny and suddenly they’re battle hardened vets. I get they can be both but I definitely feel there is some wishcasting here.