Poo tin... Put@in...
Comments
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surrey_commuter said:
The cynic in me says that they are geniuses at the propaganda war but the much awaited counter offensive has floppedbriantrumpet said:thegreatdivide said:It’s been a good day.
He’s dead.
A Russian pilot defected to Ukraine with his nice helicopter.
Ukraine managed to hit Russia with a couple of drones.
Then this…
Yeah, my ignorant/tangential reading is that Ukraine is chipping away on multiple fronts, getting a bit more daring about behind-the-lines strikes (especially Crimea), and is softening everything up, bit by bit, without any big landmark offences.
I was reading a Twitter thread (Hertling, I think) suggesting that it's the kind of scenario where 'unexpected' breakthroughs suddenly happen, though I guess that approaching winter will slow things down, and it could stagnate somewhat. But who knows? I certainly don't.
It's why I couched my observation with lots of doubt. I get the impression that the US is holding back somewhat on stuff (such as fighter jets) that would tip things faster in Ukraine's direction, but they are playing a very fine balancing act and hoping things will edge in Ukraine's direction without the US getting more directly involved and ending up with a Vietnam scenario. I think if they keep chipping away at Crimea though and stretching Russia's capacity in several directions, Hertling's prediction might come to pass.0 -
It is starting to look like it might head towards a stalemate situation where both sides can fend off attacks from the other. Ukraine may need to change tactics and they probably need more airborne capability to make progress. IMO."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
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I agree with you, other than my continued belief that the war will be decided at the US ballot boxStevo_666 said:It is starting to look like it might head towards a stalemate situation where both sides can fend off attacks from the other. Ukraine may need to change tactics and they probably need more airborne capability to make progress. IMO.
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Agreed, the US presidential election next year is very relevant. Although there is still 15 months before that happens.surrey_commuter said:
I agree with you, other than my continued belief that the war will be decided at the US ballot boxStevo_666 said:It is starting to look like it might head towards a stalemate situation where both sides can fend off attacks from the other. Ukraine may need to change tactics and they probably need more airborne capability to make progress. IMO.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
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The effort they are putting into this makes one assume that Crimea is more than a big deal in the wider scheme of things... what with this and sustained efforts on the Kerch bridge, I guess they want to cut it off from all supply routes from Russia as a primary objective... if they could do that, perhaps they're hoping Russia will cave more widely.
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But every day that passes potentially weakens Ukraine’s hand when it comes to negotiating a peace treaty.Stevo_666 said:
Agreed, the US presidential election next year is very relevant. Although there is still 15 months before that happens.surrey_commuter said:
I agree with you, other than my continued belief that the war will be decided at the US ballot boxStevo_666 said:It is starting to look like it might head towards a stalemate situation where both sides can fend off attacks from the other. Ukraine may need to change tactics and they probably need more airborne capability to make progress. IMO.
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briantrumpet said:
The effort they are putting into this makes one assume that Crimea is more than a big deal in the wider scheme of things... what with this and sustained efforts on the Kerch bridge, I guess they want to cut it off from all supply routes from Russia as a primary objective... if they could do that, perhaps they're hoping Russia will cave more widely.
They also want their ports back and the geography that will make a new border defendable. We are probably past the point where they are now looking for leverage in negotiations.
You may also want to question whether it is sensible to rely on news from the Kyiv Independent.
As a counterpoint the counter offensive has been going for nearly 3 months attacking on a 600km front.
They have retaken an area of 300 square kms which sounds impressive until you consider that is the size of Edinburgh.0 -
surrey_commuter said:briantrumpet said:
The effort they are putting into this makes one assume that Crimea is more than a big deal in the wider scheme of things... what with this and sustained efforts on the Kerch bridge, I guess they want to cut it off from all supply routes from Russia as a primary objective... if they could do that, perhaps they're hoping Russia will cave more widely.
They also want their ports back and the geography that will make a new border defendable. We are probably past the point where they are now looking for leverage in negotiations.
You may also want to question whether it is sensible to rely on news from the Kyiv Independent.
As a counterpoint the counter offensive has been going for nearly 3 months attacking on a 600km front.
They have retaken an area of 300 square kms which sounds impressive until you consider that is the size of Edinburgh.
All fair points, so I'm not holding my breath while crossing my fingers. Not much of a war effort on my part.0 -
Agreed. This may be why they are trying for Crimea given the significance of that for Putin.surrey_commuter said:
But every day that passes potentially weakens Ukraine’s hand when it comes to negotiating a peace treaty.Stevo_666 said:
Agreed, the US presidential election next year is very relevant. Although there is still 15 months before that happens.surrey_commuter said:
I agree with you, other than my continued belief that the war will be decided at the US ballot boxStevo_666 said:It is starting to look like it might head towards a stalemate situation where both sides can fend off attacks from the other. Ukraine may need to change tactics and they probably need more airborne capability to make progress. IMO.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
$200 million goes boom!
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So Russia is now getting pumped daily by cardboard drones supplied by Australia. Millions and millions of dollars worth of equipment up in smoke thanks to a bunch of Aussies with glue guns.0
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Still defending quite well, alas.thegreatdivide said:So Russia is now getting pumped daily by cardboard drones supplied by Australia. Millions and millions of dollars worth of equipment up in smoke thanks to a bunch of Aussies with glue guns.
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Finally somebody else joins me in noticing that for all of the steady propaganda stream of successes they have taken an area the size of Edinburgh in 3 months.rick_chasey said:
Still defending quite well, alas.thegreatdivide said:So Russia is now getting pumped daily by cardboard drones supplied by Australia. Millions and millions of dollars worth of equipment up in smoke thanks to a bunch of Aussies with glue guns.
As an alternative view, was it an almighty fvck up to allow the Russian army to escape across the river at Kharkiv with all of their equipment.
Was Bakhmut an example of Russian genius and Ukraine naivety as it allowed Russia 6 months to build their defences unhindered.
If the roles were reversed we would be having a party0 -
Have also heard the suggestion that the big gains last summer was more of a Russian decision to rationalise their lines etc rather than UKAF smashing it.0
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I guess the logic of that is getting their army back across the river but if Ukraine had gone all in to knock out the bridge they would have lost a lot of men and equipment so I doubt that.rick_chasey said:Have also heard the suggestion that the big gains last summer was more of a Russian decision to rationalise their lines etc rather than UKAF smashing it.
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surrey_commuter said:
Finally somebody else joins me in noticing that for all of the steady propaganda stream of successes they have taken an area the size of Edinburgh in 3 months.rick_chasey said:
Still defending quite well, alas.thegreatdivide said:So Russia is now getting pumped daily by cardboard drones supplied by Australia. Millions and millions of dollars worth of equipment up in smoke thanks to a bunch of Aussies with glue guns.
As an alternative view, was it an almighty fvck up to allow the Russian army to escape across the river at Kharkiv with all of their equipment.
Was Bakhmut an example of Russian genius and Ukraine naivety as it allowed Russia 6 months to build their defences unhindered.
If the roles were reversed we would be having a partyTheBigBean said:Was chatting to a former soldier who had an unusual opinion on the war. He thinks Russia won it last year. They control the wealth generating parts of Ukraine and Ukraine's allies will eventually be forced to negotiate. Ukraine will end up being run by gangs. It's a bleak take. He has been there.
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From my position of limited knowledge I don't see how Ukraine has anywhere near the manpower required to push the Russians out, regardless of the weapons and support being sent their way. I know warfare has moved on with technology but you still need the boots on the ground which they don't have in comparison to Russia.0
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They might not have more men, but they have now accumulated a huge amount of modern heavy armour that’s sitting waiting for the second line of defence to be broken. They’ve now officially punched through the first, and hardest line in the south. When they do, and it’s only a matter of time now, it’ll open the flood gate for the big mobile units of tanks and guns. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are causing calculated mayhem via drones on the supply lines.verylonglegs said:From my position of limited knowledge I don't see how Ukraine has anywhere near the manpower required to push the Russians out, regardless of the weapons and support being sent their way. I know warfare has moved on with technology but you still need the boots on the ground which they don't have in comparison to Russia.
In the subject of tanks, so far they’ve only lost five of the supplied Leopards. The other small handful that were taken out are already being patched up in Poland.
September is going to be an interesting month.
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I also note that the US are about to hand over long range air to air missiles. That’ll definitely help.0
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thegreatdivide said:
They might not have more men, but they have now accumulated a huge amount of modern heavy armour that’s sitting waiting for the second line of defence to be broken. They’ve now officially punched through the first, and hardest line in the south. When they do, and it’s only a matter of time now, it’ll open the flood gate for the big mobile units of tanks and guns. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are causing calculated mayhem via drones on the supply lines.verylonglegs said:From my position of limited knowledge I don't see how Ukraine has anywhere near the manpower required to push the Russians out, regardless of the weapons and support being sent their way. I know warfare has moved on with technology but you still need the boots on the ground which they don't have in comparison to Russia.
In the subject of tanks, so far they’ve only lost five of the supplied Leopards. The other small handful that were taken out are already being patched up in Poland.
September is going to be an interesting month.
Without getting my hopes up too much, my suspicion has been that Ukraine has a pretty clear plan (as you say, make the supply lines a PITA and hammer certain locations in the defences, plus keep plugging away on the Crimea area), with various bits of noise scattered around. The Russians certainly haven't given up, but they seem to be firefighting, literally and figuratively.0 -
It does seem that Ukraine is on the front foot, although once the mud season and winter set in that's likely to at least slow things down like last time."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
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If they concentrate their armour won’t the Russians throw their airforce in 100%.thegreatdivide said:
They might not have more men, but they have now accumulated a huge amount of modern heavy armour that’s sitting waiting for the second line of defence to be broken. They’ve now officially punched through the first, and hardest line in the south. When they do, and it’s only a matter of time now, it’ll open the flood gate for the big mobile units of tanks and guns. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are causing calculated mayhem via drones on the supply lines.verylonglegs said:From my position of limited knowledge I don't see how Ukraine has anywhere near the manpower required to push the Russians out, regardless of the weapons and support being sent their way. I know warfare has moved on with technology but you still need the boots on the ground which they don't have in comparison to Russia.
In the subject of tanks, so far they’ve only lost five of the supplied Leopards. The other small handful that were taken out are already being patched up in Poland.
September is going to be an interesting month.
It is intriguing that air superiority has counted for less than in any conflict in 100 years.0 -
surrey_commuter said:
If they concentrate their armour won’t the Russians throw their airforce in 100%.thegreatdivide said:
They might not have more men, but they have now accumulated a huge amount of modern heavy armour that’s sitting waiting for the second line of defence to be broken. They’ve now officially punched through the first, and hardest line in the south. When they do, and it’s only a matter of time now, it’ll open the flood gate for the big mobile units of tanks and guns. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are causing calculated mayhem via drones on the supply lines.verylonglegs said:From my position of limited knowledge I don't see how Ukraine has anywhere near the manpower required to push the Russians out, regardless of the weapons and support being sent their way. I know warfare has moved on with technology but you still need the boots on the ground which they don't have in comparison to Russia.
In the subject of tanks, so far they’ve only lost five of the supplied Leopards. The other small handful that were taken out are already being patched up in Poland.
September is going to be an interesting month.
It is intriguing that air superiority has counted for less than in any conflict in 100 years.
Is that partly because of the extensive use of drones? Seems like through necessity their use has been extensive, and they can sneak through where planes can't. Proper guerrilla-type PITA strikes with little equipment/manpower needed. Reminds me of the maquis on Vercors being such a PITA with handfuls of men and little equipment really needling the Nazis and inflicting notable losses.0 -
Tank / armour superiority also seemed to do very little for the Russians early on.surrey_commuter said:
If they concentrate their armour won’t the Russians throw their airforce in 100%.thegreatdivide said:
They might not have more men, but they have now accumulated a huge amount of modern heavy armour that’s sitting waiting for the second line of defence to be broken. They’ve now officially punched through the first, and hardest line in the south. When they do, and it’s only a matter of time now, it’ll open the flood gate for the big mobile units of tanks and guns. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are causing calculated mayhem via drones on the supply lines.verylonglegs said:From my position of limited knowledge I don't see how Ukraine has anywhere near the manpower required to push the Russians out, regardless of the weapons and support being sent their way. I know warfare has moved on with technology but you still need the boots on the ground which they don't have in comparison to Russia.
In the subject of tanks, so far they’ve only lost five of the supplied Leopards. The other small handful that were taken out are already being patched up in Poland.
September is going to be an interesting month.
It is intriguing that air superiority has counted for less than in any conflict in 100 years.
Is the difference now that the Ukrainian armour is of much better quality?- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
The Russians really don’t have much in the way of modern up to date tanks and mobile artillery now, and the production of any meaningful units of the T-90 etc is severely hampered by sanctions. Meanwhile Ukraine now has an effective collection of armour albeit not huge. Quality over quantity. There’s a video doing the rounds of a tank bloke who’d previously been in combat with a T-80 and now had one of our Challengers. He said it was like a sniper rifle. They can sit out of range of the Russians and pick off targets with devastating types of shells.pangolin said:
Tank / armour superiority also seemed to do very little for the Russians early on.surrey_commuter said:
If they concentrate their armour won’t the Russians throw their airforce in 100%.thegreatdivide said:
They might not have more men, but they have now accumulated a huge amount of modern heavy armour that’s sitting waiting for the second line of defence to be broken. They’ve now officially punched through the first, and hardest line in the south. When they do, and it’s only a matter of time now, it’ll open the flood gate for the big mobile units of tanks and guns. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are causing calculated mayhem via drones on the supply lines.verylonglegs said:From my position of limited knowledge I don't see how Ukraine has anywhere near the manpower required to push the Russians out, regardless of the weapons and support being sent their way. I know warfare has moved on with technology but you still need the boots on the ground which they don't have in comparison to Russia.
In the subject of tanks, so far they’ve only lost five of the supplied Leopards. The other small handful that were taken out are already being patched up in Poland.
September is going to be an interesting month.
It is intriguing that air superiority has counted for less than in any conflict in 100 years.
Is the difference now that the Ukrainian armour is of much better quality?
With the exception of drones, there’s not been a lot of info on what’s happening in the air, but Russia is now having to move surface to air systems from various places in order shore up their own defence. They’re losing SAM batteries to the Ukrainians, and they’re having to defend their own country from drones. As with the tanks, the production of these systems is at a snails pace. They also take a long time to build even without a war going on.
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I would be very surprised if a tank could survive an attack from a plane.pangolin said:
Tank / armour superiority also seemed to do very little for the Russians early on.surrey_commuter said:
If they concentrate their armour won’t the Russians throw their airforce in 100%.thegreatdivide said:
They might not have more men, but they have now accumulated a huge amount of modern heavy armour that’s sitting waiting for the second line of defence to be broken. They’ve now officially punched through the first, and hardest line in the south. When they do, and it’s only a matter of time now, it’ll open the flood gate for the big mobile units of tanks and guns. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are causing calculated mayhem via drones on the supply lines.verylonglegs said:From my position of limited knowledge I don't see how Ukraine has anywhere near the manpower required to push the Russians out, regardless of the weapons and support being sent their way. I know warfare has moved on with technology but you still need the boots on the ground which they don't have in comparison to Russia.
In the subject of tanks, so far they’ve only lost five of the supplied Leopards. The other small handful that were taken out are already being patched up in Poland.
September is going to be an interesting month.
It is intriguing that air superiority has counted for less than in any conflict in 100 years.
Is the difference now that the Ukrainian armour is of much better quality?
Which leaves the possibility that Ukraine has found a way of keeping it's air defences effective enough to provide cover.
or, I read a suggestion that Putin does not fully trust his airforce so has not fully committed them. This would also explain why Wagner wer enot wipedout on the motorway.
Before this war if you did not have air superiority and formed an armoured column you would get wiped out
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Suspect it is more that Russias air force is not replaceable in a hurry and thst there is a vulnerability to donated ground to air that Ukraine has.0
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Didn't Wagner should down a few Russian planes trying to do that?surrey_commuter said:
I would be very surprised if a tank could survive an attack from a plane.pangolin said:
Tank / armour superiority also seemed to do very little for the Russians early on.surrey_commuter said:
If they concentrate their armour won’t the Russians throw their airforce in 100%.thegreatdivide said:
They might not have more men, but they have now accumulated a huge amount of modern heavy armour that’s sitting waiting for the second line of defence to be broken. They’ve now officially punched through the first, and hardest line in the south. When they do, and it’s only a matter of time now, it’ll open the flood gate for the big mobile units of tanks and guns. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are causing calculated mayhem via drones on the supply lines.verylonglegs said:From my position of limited knowledge I don't see how Ukraine has anywhere near the manpower required to push the Russians out, regardless of the weapons and support being sent their way. I know warfare has moved on with technology but you still need the boots on the ground which they don't have in comparison to Russia.
In the subject of tanks, so far they’ve only lost five of the supplied Leopards. The other small handful that were taken out are already being patched up in Poland.
September is going to be an interesting month.
It is intriguing that air superiority has counted for less than in any conflict in 100 years.
Is the difference now that the Ukrainian armour is of much better quality?
Which leaves the possibility that Ukraine has found a way of keeping it's air defences effective enough to provide cover.
or, I read a suggestion that Putin does not fully trust his airforce so has not fully committed them. This would also explain why Wagner wer enot wipedout on the motorway.
Before this war if you did not have air superiority and formed an armoured column you would get wiped out0 -
They did but it hardly suggests their motto is “they shall not pass”TheBigBean said:
Didn't Wagner should down a few Russian planes trying to do that?surrey_commuter said:
I would be very surprised if a tank could survive an attack from a plane.pangolin said:
Tank / armour superiority also seemed to do very little for the Russians early on.surrey_commuter said:
If they concentrate their armour won’t the Russians throw their airforce in 100%.thegreatdivide said:
They might not have more men, but they have now accumulated a huge amount of modern heavy armour that’s sitting waiting for the second line of defence to be broken. They’ve now officially punched through the first, and hardest line in the south. When they do, and it’s only a matter of time now, it’ll open the flood gate for the big mobile units of tanks and guns. Meanwhile the Ukrainians are causing calculated mayhem via drones on the supply lines.verylonglegs said:From my position of limited knowledge I don't see how Ukraine has anywhere near the manpower required to push the Russians out, regardless of the weapons and support being sent their way. I know warfare has moved on with technology but you still need the boots on the ground which they don't have in comparison to Russia.
In the subject of tanks, so far they’ve only lost five of the supplied Leopards. The other small handful that were taken out are already being patched up in Poland.
September is going to be an interesting month.
It is intriguing that air superiority has counted for less than in any conflict in 100 years.
Is the difference now that the Ukrainian armour is of much better quality?
Which leaves the possibility that Ukraine has found a way of keeping it's air defences effective enough to provide cover.
or, I read a suggestion that Putin does not fully trust his airforce so has not fully committed them. This would also explain why Wagner wer enot wipedout on the motorway.
Before this war if you did not have air superiority and formed an armoured column you would get wiped out0
