Poo tin... Put@in...
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Neither, because it is all a bit too late to make a difference in the Spring, I think. It is more about making sure Russia don't win, seeing as the situation on the ground will go from about 1:1 to about 1:3 in favour of Russian personnel.DeVlaeminck said:The Russian tactic seems to be that they think they can outlast the West's appetite to back Ukraine and the threats of WW3 are designed to keep the conflict at the level they themselves can sustain while they wait for economics to impact our political will.
I'm interested in whether the ratcheting up of arms being provided is done in realistic hope that Russia can be defeated - pushed out of Ukraine - or whether it's just what is necessary to prevent Ukraine being defeated by a Russian offensive in the Spring.
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That's not neither it's the latter.First.Aspect said:
Neither, because it is all a bit too late to make a difference in the Spring, I think. It is more about making sure Russia don't win, seeing as the situation on the ground will go from about 1:1 to about 1:3 in favour of Russian personnel.DeVlaeminck said:The Russian tactic seems to be that they think they can outlast the West's appetite to back Ukraine and the threats of WW3 are designed to keep the conflict at the level they themselves can sustain while they wait for economics to impact our political will.
I'm interested in whether the ratcheting up of arms being provided is done in realistic hope that Russia can be defeated - pushed out of Ukraine - or whether it's just what is necessary to prevent Ukraine being defeated by a Russian offensive in the Spring.[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
Ah. I've just found my reading glasses.DeVlaeminck said:
That's not neither it's the latter.First.Aspect said:
Neither, because it is all a bit too late to make a difference in the Spring, I think. It is more about making sure Russia don't win, seeing as the situation on the ground will go from about 1:1 to about 1:3 in favour of Russian personnel.DeVlaeminck said:The Russian tactic seems to be that they think they can outlast the West's appetite to back Ukraine and the threats of WW3 are designed to keep the conflict at the level they themselves can sustain while they wait for economics to impact our political will.
I'm interested in whether the ratcheting up of arms being provided is done in realistic hope that Russia can be defeated - pushed out of Ukraine - or whether it's just what is necessary to prevent Ukraine being defeated by a Russian offensive in the Spring.0 -
NATO is a figleaf for US involvement, which leaves you with two questions;
What does success look like for the current administration?
What does success look like for the next administration?
Personally I think Biden would be happy bankrupting Russia with a perpetual war and that if Trump gets in then the funding stops and Zelensky is toast.0 -
Is there not a third option that the line freezes and ossifies and it become an annexation, with border checks etcDeVlaeminck said:The Russian tactic seems to be that they think they can outlast the West's appetite to back Ukraine and the threats of WW3 are designed to keep the conflict at the level they themselves can sustain while they wait for economics to impact our political will.
I'm interested in whether the ratcheting up of arms being provided is done in realistic hope that Russia can be defeated - pushed out of Ukraine - or whether it's just what is necessary to prevent Ukraine being defeated by a Russian offensive in the Spring.0 -
This could well end up being a third option given it seems something of a stalemate at present, with neither side seemingly capable of beating the other. I guess we'll have to see how far the coming round of tanks/missiles/planes tip the balance.rick_chasey said:
Is there not a third option that the line freezes and ossifies and it become an annexation, with border checks etcDeVlaeminck said:The Russian tactic seems to be that they think they can outlast the West's appetite to back Ukraine and the threats of WW3 are designed to keep the conflict at the level they themselves can sustain while they wait for economics to impact our political will.
I'm interested in whether the ratcheting up of arms being provided is done in realistic hope that Russia can be defeated - pushed out of Ukraine - or whether it's just what is necessary to prevent Ukraine being defeated by a Russian offensive in the Spring."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I think that is the thinking behind the increase in kit.Stevo_666 said:
This could well end up being a third option given it seems something of a stalemate at present, with neither side seemingly capable of beating the other. I guess we'll have to see how far the coming round of tanks/missiles/planes tip the balance.rick_chasey said:
Is there not a third option that the line freezes and ossifies and it become an annexation, with border checks etcDeVlaeminck said:The Russian tactic seems to be that they think they can outlast the West's appetite to back Ukraine and the threats of WW3 are designed to keep the conflict at the level they themselves can sustain while they wait for economics to impact our political will.
I'm interested in whether the ratcheting up of arms being provided is done in realistic hope that Russia can be defeated - pushed out of Ukraine - or whether it's just what is necessary to prevent Ukraine being defeated by a Russian offensive in the Spring.
West needs this war won.
US has secured funding for a year before the House gets involved and I think increasingly Biden’s fate is tied to that of Ukraine, along with the economy.0 -
Agree with most of that, although to some extent I'd say that Ukraine's fate is tied to that of Biden (or at least the Democrats) as there is no guarantee of what level of support they would get from the Republicans.rick_chasey said:
I think that is the thinking behind the increase in kit.Stevo_666 said:
This could well end up being a third option given it seems something of a stalemate at present, with neither side seemingly capable of beating the other. I guess we'll have to see how far the coming round of tanks/missiles/planes tip the balance.rick_chasey said:
Is there not a third option that the line freezes and ossifies and it become an annexation, with border checks etcDeVlaeminck said:The Russian tactic seems to be that they think they can outlast the West's appetite to back Ukraine and the threats of WW3 are designed to keep the conflict at the level they themselves can sustain while they wait for economics to impact our political will.
I'm interested in whether the ratcheting up of arms being provided is done in realistic hope that Russia can be defeated - pushed out of Ukraine - or whether it's just what is necessary to prevent Ukraine being defeated by a Russian offensive in the Spring.
West needs this war won.
US has secured funding for a year before the House gets involved and I think increasingly Biden’s fate is tied to that of Ukraine, along with the economy."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
It's a weird political world where people are expecting the Republicans to effectively assist the Russians!2
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So Boris says that Putin threatened to kill him and Putin denies it.
Scarily I find Putin the least untrustworthy0 -
It probably included something along the lines of 'I didn't invest millions getting you to be Prime Minister only for you to provide weapons to my enemies. You're going to pay a heavy price.'surrey_commuter said:So Boris says that Putin threatened to kill him and Putin denies it.
Scarily I find Putin the least untrustworthy0 -
interesting article, suggesting putin may've let prigozhin get a bit too strong, probably won't be too easy to show him the window
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/01/26/opinion/russia-putin-ukraine-wagner.html?unlocked_article_code=-7gsV6ANrTn0Xrh0_q-B7ewxHySo8v3GIPGvZc0EXEp6kQkLiiBm3YKKAF0tC7UuJA2o_-7oE96xdPwPjKECkeDRPBgDc40zmrJ-lOIAuhD-IehXCJig58_vimobvOi66Z4FhrtHUfPTRcFppjvJHA9QQoqnVLcoM_DW21X2m6PmIJPzGBS7NG6BBYe4919uYTcsO4dLprFFDAK3HMSKKQ_jZw1HB8gAvNyo7bmO943PLIMVj7PbfMcoCV0ftdiiGufhUSdf-HZDaQ3lamRne7d6PR0G_yZM3JAkubE9GY4Eqdn0Dw-gt9_8AsU2If2qKSJRH8duH6BpJk49rpgvhwpQhJID&smid=share-urlmy bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
Pretty much the opinion of almost everyone I've spoken to about this.surrey_commuter said:So Boris says that Putin threatened to kill him and Putin denies it.
Scarily I find Putin the least untrustworthy1 -
So Biden has said no to the US supplying F-16s, but it transpires that Congress have definitely been working on bringing in Ukraine's excess of fighter pilots to train on the type in the States - that makes sense as the country has vast combat training grounds and the best Aggressor squadrons that are even painted up to look like Russian (and Chinese jets). They really do have more pilots than planes now. So the Poland / Netherlands supplying the 16s looks more and more likely at some point...0
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Farridge doesn't seem terribly keen on strong Western groupings to counter Russian aggression... I wonder why that might be?
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His arc is quite similar to Mosley, isn’t it?briantrumpet said:Farridge doesn't seem terribly keen on strong Western groupings to counter Russian aggression... I wonder why that might be?
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Reginald or Max?rick_chasey said:
His arc is quite similar to Mosley, isn’t it?briantrumpet said:Farridge doesn't seem terribly keen on strong Western groupings to counter Russian aggression... I wonder why that might be?
News today that the FIA might be in the market for a new leader.
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The BUF Mosley, Oswald.
It’s all fun and games until your more successful international counterpart kicks off an expansionist war in Europe.
Same thing happened in Italy too, more explicitly.
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And to think that ridicule was poured on the notion that the EEC/EU had a significant part to play in maintaining peace in Europe.0
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Anyone want to tell Farridge?rick_chasey said:The BUF Mosley, Oswald.
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"He stood for Parliament during the post-war era but received very little support. During this latter period he was an advocate of pro-European."The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Russia's economy now forecasted to grow FFS.... so much for the sanctions...left the forum March 20230
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Suspect is it based on some creative accounting. Last time I listened to anyone who seemed to know what they were talking about on R4 the jist seemed to be we don't really know the true state of the Russian economy.ugo.santalucia said:Russia's economy now forecasted to grow FFS.... so much for the sanctions...
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Russia’s defence industry is totally screwed. They can barely produce new equipment or parts for current equipment in their own arsenal, let alone sell arms or supply crucial spare parts to the countries they’ve previously sold weapons to. The latter is not going to go down well with Russia’s allies.0
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Except Iran.thegreatdivide said:Russia’s defence industry is totally screwed. They can barely produce new equipment or parts for current equipment in their own arsenal, let alone sell arms or supply crucial spare parts to the countries they’ve previously sold weapons to. The latter is not going to go down well with Russia’s allies.
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Slightly surprised the UK is saying jets aren’t off the table, have we got any spare? I thought we were struggling to manage our own defence needs. What would they be, would it be the Typhoon or do will still have Tornadoes in storage?
I used to see fast jets training regularly in these parts but this has made me realise I haven’t seen one in years and can’t recall seeing a Typhoon around here. I assume that is due to the changes around rules of low flying.0 -
Bit like the tanks, I think the Brits are trying to shift the other countries.Pross said:Slightly surprised the UK is saying jets aren’t off the table, have we got any spare? I thought we were struggling to manage our own defence needs. What would they be, would it be the Typhoon or do will still have Tornadoes in storage?
I used to see fast jets training regularly in these parts but this has made me realise I haven’t seen one in years and can’t recall seeing a Typhoon around here. I assume that is due to the changes around rules of low flying.
I think it's great, it's one of the first times I can remember where I'm really pleased with what the govt is doing internationally.0 -
Really interesting, anything you read that's worth sharing on this?thegreatdivide said:Russia’s defence industry is totally screwed. They can barely produce new equipment or parts for current equipment in their own arsenal, let alone sell arms or supply crucial spare parts to the countries they’ve previously sold weapons to. The latter is not going to go down well with Russia’s allies.
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The RAF has more than enough front line aircraft in service at the moment regardless of what the tabloids post.Pross said:Slightly surprised the UK is saying jets aren’t off the table, have we got any spare? I thought we were struggling to manage our own defence needs. What would they be, would it be the Typhoon or do will still have Tornadoes in storage?
I used to see fast jets training regularly in these parts but this has made me realise I haven’t seen one in years and can’t recall seeing a Typhoon around here. I assume that is due to the changes around rules of low flying.
The 'Tranche 1' Typhoons are being retired (many have been retired already, and some have been scrapped) and the Hawk T1 has also been retired (March 2022). There are also a number of Tornado GR1 frames in storage too after being retired a few years ago. So there are options. However of the three the most likely is the Hawk T1 which can easily be turned into an attack aircraft, and compared to the Typhoon it's a lot easier to fly. It was the UK's primary trainer for decades.
Where are you in the UK Pross? These days training takes place in Wales, the Lakes, East Anglia and up here in Scotland, but a huge amount of it now takes place over the North Sea.0
