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  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,469
    Scholz is not from East Germany. More to the point, the bridges have already been torched by Russia.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited January 2023
    No but his voters are. And their biggest rivals in the seats where they win are the Putin supporting AfD




    https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/germany-russia-ukraine/

    Some helpful stats there to illustrate the domestic drivers of the German position.

    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,469
    Also can't help thinking that not buying any Russian gas is already a far bigger slap in the face than allowing Poland to donate a few tanks.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited January 2023
    Sure. I get irritated with the coverage of the German position when they never ever consider the internal politics or opinions.

    Just blanket assumption they’re western, ergo they hate Russia. Far more complicated.

    Don’t forget Schröder’s capture by the Russians. The links are deep and Russia isn’t that far away from Germany. The last SPD leader before Scholtz

    Especially the older Ossi's, they see America as the bigger enemy. Anti-Americanism runs deep in large swathes of Germany.
    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,469
    Schroeder was just an embarrassment for everyone.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,460
    rick_chasey said:

    No but his voters are. And their biggest rivals in the seats where they win are the Putin supporting AfD




    https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/germany-russia-ukraine/

    Some helpful stats there to illustrate the domestic drivers of the German position.

    It's interesting to see that political divides on a geographical basis aren't just a UK thing. That north / south divide looks even more stark if anything.

    I don't know enough about Germany but wonder if there is a reason the AfD are popular along the Czech border.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Pross said:



    It's interesting to see that political divides on a geographical basis aren't just a UK thing. That north / south divide looks even more stark if anything.

    _
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    To be fair to Germany they have supplied a HUGE amount of equipment now - second only to the US. The tank issue seems to a a real problem for some of them though.

    It's getting to the point where Poland, Estonia and Finland are just going to go ahead and give Ukraine the tanks regardless. Netherlands are now mulling F-16s. They have a fair few spare after transitioning across to the F-35.
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    The latest drop of kit from the US is pretty mega and way ahead of anything Ivan the C*nt has in terns of modern equipment. The Strykers are meant to be superb for the kind of fast infiltration the AFU have adopted.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    thegreatdivide said:


    It's getting to the point where Poland, Estonia and Finland are just going to go ahead and give Ukraine the tanks regardless. Netherlands are now mulling F-16s. They have a fair few spare after transitioning across to the F-35.

    Sure but rulez are rulez and I despite the outcome I do think it's good they're sticking to them. NATO doesn't really work if they don't stick to them.

    From the coverage I have read I'd be surprised if they give them jets - I think NATO are reticent to give them anything that can go fast into Russia.

    Is there anything specific about the leopard tanks that makes them so sought after?
    _
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    rick_chasey said:

    thegreatdivide said:


    It's getting to the point where Poland, Estonia and Finland are just going to go ahead and give Ukraine the tanks regardless. Netherlands are now mulling F-16s. They have a fair few spare after transitioning across to the F-35.

    Sure but rulez are rulez and I despite the outcome I do think it's good they're sticking to them. NATO doesn't really work if they don't stick to them.

    From the coverage I have read I'd be surprised if they give them jets - I think NATO are reticent to give them anything that can go fast into Russia.

    Is there anything specific about the leopard tanks that makes them so sought after?
    easyvto train on, easy to use, easy to repair, everyone has them so there are loads of them and loads of spares.

    the Ford Fiesta of tanks.

    The Challys are a strange proposition to hand over so more a political move. Have worked with Abrams lot before, as US have said they're massively inefficient and complicated, so too much hassle.

    there is slso the security aspect - Russia rill have Leopards to study, Chally 2 is about yo be replaced, if they get hold of an Abrams they can find out a lot.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    The Challenger 2 has the best survivability of the all three as proven in actual combat. The Leopards as MF says cover a lot of bases so it's a winner - less so survivability though.
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    There's currently a demonstration in Berlin outside the German Chancellors residence - the crowd are chanting 'Free The Leopards Now!"



    #FreeTheLeopards is now a thing.
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    The Ukrainian sense of humour keeps rolling on...

  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    This went under my radar (excuse the pun)

    https://www.flyingmag.com/u-s-house-oks-100m-to-train-ukrainian-pilots/

    And a tweet today linked to a news story that claims:

    "The United States has decided on the type of aircraft that will be delivered to Ukraine, as well as on the terms of training pilots - the speaker of the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine"
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    Meanwhile….it’s tank night!
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,285
    thegreatdivide said:

    Meanwhile….it’s tank night!

    About bl00dy time too. Great news.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    Looks like it's just a matter of time now before they announce F-16s to Ukraine:

    https://www.ft.com/content/88d19145-5235-45e4-80e6-ade3530060d2
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,285
    thegreatdivide said:

    Looks like it's just a matter of time now before they announce F-16s to Ukraine:

    https://www.ft.com/content/88d19145-5235-45e4-80e6-ade3530060d2

    Although I read yesterday that Scholz has now said Germany will not provide fighter jets to Ukraine. Here we go again...
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Stevo_666 said:

    thegreatdivide said:

    Looks like it's just a matter of time now before they announce F-16s to Ukraine:

    https://www.ft.com/content/88d19145-5235-45e4-80e6-ade3530060d2

    Although I read yesterday that Scholz has now said Germany will not provide fighter jets to Ukraine. Here we go again...
    Germans don't make F16s, so what they think is irrelevant.
    _
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,285
    rick_chasey said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    thegreatdivide said:

    Looks like it's just a matter of time now before they announce F-16s to Ukraine:

    https://www.ft.com/content/88d19145-5235-45e4-80e6-ade3530060d2

    Although I read yesterday that Scholz has now said Germany will not provide fighter jets to Ukraine. Here we go again...
    Germans don't make F16s, so what they think is irrelevant.
    Correct, it means they don't want to supply any they may have but can't stop other countries from doing so - as they were doing with the Leopard tanks until the other day.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    edited January 2023
    Current NATO users of the F-16 are well into a transition to the F-35, so the surplus is growing by the month. Add to this the dozens and dozens of A and B model F-16s mothballed at the Davis Monthan 'boneyard' that can be reactivated in a matter of months, or used as a stockpile of spares, and you have enough to cover an air force several times over. And as mentioned in an earlier post - it does look like there are already Ukrainian pilots training in the US. I would also put good money on some AFU pilots in Poland training on the Polish F-16s.

    The Luftwaffe use Typhoons (or in their case Eurofighters) along with the elderly but still very capable Tornados, which would be too much hassle. Stick to using the excess of F-16s.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,285
    Latest developments on supply of kit to Ukraine:
    https://telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/01/28/ukraine-war-latest-news-russia-putin-missile-drone-attacks/

    In case it's paywalled:
    "Ukraine and its Western allies are engaged in "fast-track" talks on the possibility of equipping it with long-range missiles and military aircraft, a top Ukrainian presidential aide said Saturday.

    Ukraine has been urging the West to send long-rang ATACMS surface-to-surface missiles, which have a range of 190 miles, and MiG and F-16 fighter jets.

    While it’s not clear which weapons are part of the talks, Mykhailo Podolyak, an adviser to President Volodymyr Zelensky, said Ukraine's supporters in the West understand the need to supply planes capable of providing cover for the armored fighting vehicles that the United States and Germany pledged at the beginning of the month.

    However, in remarks to online video channel Freedom, Mr Podolyak said that some of Ukraine's Western partners maintain a "conservative" attitude to arms deliveries, "due to fear of changes in the international architecture." He did not name specific countries.

    The US and Germany agreed on Wednesday to share advanced tanks with Ukraine but Berlin has already ruled out sending fighter jets. "
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,221
    It feels like a balancing act at the moment: most Western governments realising the need to stop Putin, but at the same time not wanting to get dragged inexorably towards something that feels like the start of a de facto Nato v. Russia war, though Putin seems to be doing his best to provoke it.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,285
    briantrumpet said:

    It feels like a balancing act at the moment: most Western governments realising the need to stop Putin, but at the same time not wanting to get dragged inexorably towards something that feels like the start of a de facto Nato v. Russia war, though Putin seems to be doing his best to provoke it.

    It seems to be that, although a lot of the Russian sabre rattling appears to be to dissuade the West from helping Ukraine in certain ways. The West seems to be gradually pushing back the boundaries. Seem to recall that last year, fighter jets and long range missiles were seen as off limits.

    Hopefully this latest round of help will make a noticeable difference once winter is over.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,221
    Stevo_666 said:

    briantrumpet said:

    It feels like a balancing act at the moment: most Western governments realising the need to stop Putin, but at the same time not wanting to get dragged inexorably towards something that feels like the start of a de facto Nato v. Russia war, though Putin seems to be doing his best to provoke it.

    It seems to be that, although a lot of the Russian sabre rattling appears to be to dissuade the West from helping Ukraine in certain ways. The West seems to be gradually pushing back the boundaries. Seem to recall that last year, fighter jets and long range missiles were seen as off limits.

    Hopefully this latest round of help will make a noticeable difference once winter is over.

    Indeed re the sabre rattling... I'm inclined not to believe anything Putin or his henchmen claim regarding what they claim they are capable of doing, and we know that there have been direct communications to Putin from the US about possible consequences if Putin really oversteps the mark and follows through on some of his more extreme suggestions.

    Let's hope that the cruise missile and drone attacks on Ukraine become less frequent as Russian stocks deplete... they certainly don't seem to have broken Ukraine's spirit yet.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,460
    Considering how Russia has struggled against Ukraine with some logistical support from NATO countries I think it’s reasonable to say they would get crushed if they dragged NATO into direct involvement.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,257
    edited January 2023
    Pross said:

    Considering how Russia has struggled against Ukraine with some logistical support from NATO countries I think it’s reasonable to say they would get crushed if they dragged NATO into direct involvement.

    That's not necessarily a good thing, and fear of that prospect is what Putin is gambling on.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,087
    The Russian tactic seems to be that they think they can outlast the West's appetite to back Ukraine and the threats of WW3 are designed to keep the conflict at the level they themselves can sustain while they wait for economics to impact our political will.

    I'm interested in whether the ratcheting up of arms being provided is done in realistic hope that Russia can be defeated - pushed out of Ukraine - or whether it's just what is necessary to prevent Ukraine being defeated by a Russian offensive in the Spring.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,691
    DeVlaeminck said:

    The Russian tactic seems to be that they think they can outlast the West's appetite to back Ukraine and the threats of WW3 are designed to keep the conflict at the level they themselves can sustain while they wait for economics to impact our political will.

    Some months ago I posted that this is the one single Russian military tactic since bloomin' Ivar the whoever

    However, the difference, in this case, is that if the retreat out of Ukraine, that's it, they've lost...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver

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