Poo tin... Put@in...

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  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    Pross said:

    Interesting that Greece is the second highest on the list by GDP

    Worried about Turkey who lay claim to a lot of the Greek islands?
    Or just a very low GDP
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,322
    Pross said:

    Pross said:

    Interesting that Greece is the second highest on the list by GDP

    Worried about Turkey who lay claim to a lot of the Greek islands?
    Or just a very low GDP
    ...and too much tax evasion by wealthy Greeks.
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    Going to be painful in the short term, but isn't the west going to figure out a plan b that effectively permanently cripples the Russian economy (by permanently, I mean in my lifetime) because Russia can't be trusted?
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,329
    edited February 2022
    pinno said:

    From the FT:

    A load of facts

    Does anyone seriously think Putin is concerned by share prices?
    The only outcome of this that will change anything is open revolt in Russia or assassination.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    pblakeney said:

    pinno said:

    From the FT:

    A load of facts

    Does anyone seriously think Putin is concerned by share prices?
    The only outcome of this that will change anything is open revolt in Russia or assassination.
    FT readers are
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Can’t quite get over the timing of the defence strategy where the UK basically abandons its capabilities in conventional state v state warfare.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Russians really are close to Kyiv already - currently fighting around Dymer which is 20km or so away from the outskirts.
  • Can’t quite get over the timing of the defence strategy where the UK basically abandons its capabilities in conventional state v state warfare.

    Do you honestly think Russia is going to invade the UK at any point? Even further down the line it’ll never happen. I’d be way more concerned about cyber warfare and sub sea tampering of comms infrastructure.

    Also, this invasion is going to severely knacker Russia’s armed forces. It’ll take a long time for them to get back to where they were pre kick off and any ability to start a fresh assault on countries like Estonia and Lithuania. Even more so with economic impact on the way. You need a sh1t load of spares to keep your jets and helicopters in the air.

  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    After bravely choosing to not use an unused pipeline, Germany seem to have blocked taking action on swift payments.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited February 2022



    Can’t quite get over the timing of the defence strategy where the UK basically abandons its capabilities in conventional state v state warfare.

    Do you honestly think Russia is going to invade the UK at any point? Even further down the line it’ll never happen. I’d be way more concerned about cyber warfare and sub sea tampering of comms infrastructure.

    Also, this invasion is going to severely knacker Russia’s armed forces. It’ll take a long time for them to get back to where they were pre kick off and any ability to start a fresh assault on countries like Estonia and Lithuania. Even more so with economic impact on the way. You need a censored load of spares to keep your jets and helicopters in the air.

    I am a believer in deterrence.

    It doesn’t need to be a Uk invasion for the UK to be heavily involved in conventional state v stage warfare. Poland will suffice or any other NATO member.



    I also believe if rumours are true that ruskies plan on large scale human rights abuses - massacres (and that is a big if) etc, west will end up getting involved.

    Also not convinced Putin will necessarily stop at Ukraine, but here’s hoping.

    We’re in the “don’t believe anything your hear” phase but the Americans have been remarkably accurate on this and so when Biden says Putin plans to restore the Soviet Union you have to wonder.

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited February 2022

    After bravely choosing to not use an unused pipeline, Germany seem to have blocked taking action on swift payments.

    SWIFT seems very small fry surely. I appreciate its a anti-EU hobby horse.

    Italians are also worried about their handbags, Belgians diamonds, and the UK its lawyers and financiers


    Sberbank being locked out the US correspondent banking network is several orders of magnitude bigger. That was a big US flex - not sure it has happened before.

    Germans should be more preoccupied with tooling up.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916

    After bravely choosing to not use an unused pipeline, Germany seem to have blocked taking action on swift payments.

    SWIFT seems very small fry surely. I appreciate its a anti-EU hobby horse.

    Italians are also worried about their handbags, Belgians diamonds, and the UK its lawyers and financiers


    Sberbank being locked out the US correspondent banking network is several orders of magnitude bigger. That was a big US flex - not sure it has happened before.

    Germans should be more preoccupied with tooling up.
    Ukraine seems keen on swift sanctions.

    Yes Italy and Belgium objected as well. The UK and US supported the action as did much of the EU.

    Still, that unused pipeline is not being used which will have Putin worried.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Nothing’s gonna worry Putin save for NATO soldiers turning up.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,329

    After bravely choosing to not use an unused pipeline, Germany seem to have blocked taking action on swift payments.

    SWIFT seems very small fry surely. I appreciate its a anti-EU hobby horse.

    Italians are also worried about their handbags, Belgians diamonds, and the UK its lawyers and financiers


    Sberbank being locked out the US correspondent banking network is several orders of magnitude bigger. That was a big US flex - not sure it has happened before.

    Germans should be more preoccupied with tooling up.
    Ukraine seems keen on swift sanctions.

    Yes Italy and Belgium objected as well. The UK and US supported the action as did much of the EU.

    Still, that unused pipeline is not being used which will have Putin worried.
    Putin has been preparing this for years and knew sanctions were coming.
    He invaded anyway. He is prepared to go to war. Sanctions don't bother him.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    The options are basically do whatever you can do get rid of Putin and anyone close to him who thinks the same (not many by the looks of it) and/or fight the Russians.

    West hasn’t got its head around the latter but if the Russians carry on the evil empire bit they will.

    My worry is there is no good logic for Russia to do this so the logic of Putin stopping with just Ukraine is not a given.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    Today's argument is that there is no point in trying any sanctions because they are pointless anyway?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited February 2022

    Today's argument is that there is no point in trying any sanctions because they are pointless anyway?

    No but you were inferring it was about affecting Putin, specifically,

    Still, that unused pipeline is not being used which will have Putin worried.


    None of this will have Putin worried so let’s put that to bed.

    Still need sanctions to persuade those around him to remove him. That is apparently what he is most worried about.
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,322
    pblakeney said:

    pinno said:

    From the FT:

    A load of facts

    Does anyone seriously think Putin is concerned by share prices?
    People who are connected to him will be concerned.

    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,411
    pangolin said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    davidof said:


    Cant imagine who you might be thinking of :smiley:
    The great thing about posts like this is everyone thinks they're about somebody else.
    I guess you need to look at who's been posting on here a lot.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Relax Stevo, Nice way to scratch the itch of discussing it without cheesing people off in real life who don’t want to.

  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916

    Today's argument is that there is no point in trying any sanctions because they are pointless anyway?

    No but you were inferring it was about affecting Putin, specifically,

    Still, that unused pipeline is not being used which will have Putin worried.


    None of this will have Putin worried so let’s put that to bed.

    Still need sanctions to persuade those around him to remove him. That is apparently what he is most worried about.
    You need to read that again.

    Sanctions->affect Putin's supporters->worries Putin
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    I think MI6 tweeting about their own brilliance is quite interesting. Presumably there is more than meeets the eye.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,329
    pinno said:

    pblakeney said:

    pinno said:

    From the FT:

    A load of facts

    Does anyone seriously think Putin is concerned by share prices?
    People who are connected to him will be concerned.

    Yes.
    That was in the second part of my post. Putin doesn’t care.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463

    After bravely choosing to not use an unused pipeline, Germany seem to have blocked taking action on swift payments.

    SWIFT seems very small fry surely. I appreciate its a anti-EU hobby horse.

    Italians are also worried about their handbags, Belgians diamonds, and the UK its lawyers and financiers


    Sberbank being locked out the US correspondent banking network is several orders of magnitude bigger. That was a big US flex - not sure it has happened before.

    Germans should be more preoccupied with tooling up.
    Ukraine seems keen on swift sanctions.

    Yes Italy and Belgium objected as well. The UK and US supported the action as did much of the EU.

    Still, that unused pipeline is not being used which will have Putin worried.
    Don't forget that countries are lighting up their buildings blue and yellow in solidarity and Biden sent his prayers so all is good. There has even been strongly worded Tweets which is the 21st century equivalent of a nuclear strike.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,329

    Today's argument is that there is no point in trying any sanctions because they are pointless anyway?

    No. The sanctions are not hard enough or quick enough.
    Also need to make it clear that military action will be an option. US seems to be but nobody else.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited February 2022
    Pross said:

    After bravely choosing to not use an unused pipeline, Germany seem to have blocked taking action on swift payments.

    SWIFT seems very small fry surely. I appreciate its a anti-EU hobby horse.

    Italians are also worried about their handbags, Belgians diamonds, and the UK its lawyers and financiers


    Sberbank being locked out the US correspondent banking network is several orders of magnitude bigger. That was a big US flex - not sure it has happened before.

    Germans should be more preoccupied with tooling up.
    Ukraine seems keen on swift sanctions.

    Yes Italy and Belgium objected as well. The UK and US supported the action as did much of the EU.

    Still, that unused pipeline is not being used which will have Putin worried.
    Don't forget that countries are lighting up their buildings blue and yellow in solidarity and Biden sent his prayers so all is good. There has even been strongly worded Tweets which is the 21st century equivalent of a nuclear strike.
    You mock but you wanna send UK troops over?

    West generally hasn't got its head around the situation yet; it's not always straightforward switching quickly into a new paradigm where the issues are of several orders of magnitude more important then you've been handling your entire career.

    I believe the West will get there but it's not gonna get there overnight. You would think that attitudes will harden as the reality sets in and more people get their head around the new paradigm.

    I still think the UN is finished after this. Russia is chairing the security committee - it's a different world now and it will take governments to get their head around the new world.

    We're all in shock about this - it's not been since since WW2 in Europe - and that was pretty f*cking awful, and that applies to governments too. The dust will settle eventually and we'll hopefully come around to a response.

    Problem is, ultimately it involves credible deterrents which you will have to be prepared to use, and that's awful for a lot of reasons.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    They're at the outskirts of Kyiv.
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,605
    pblakeney said:

    After bravely choosing to not use an unused pipeline, Germany seem to have blocked taking action on swift payments.

    SWIFT seems very small fry surely. I appreciate its a anti-EU hobby horse.

    Italians are also worried about their handbags, Belgians diamonds, and the UK its lawyers and financiers


    Sberbank being locked out the US correspondent banking network is several orders of magnitude bigger. That was a big US flex - not sure it has happened before.

    Germans should be more preoccupied with tooling up.
    Ukraine seems keen on swift sanctions.

    Yes Italy and Belgium objected as well. The UK and US supported the action as did much of the EU.

    Still, that unused pipeline is not being used which will have Putin worried.
    Putin has been preparing this for years and knew sanctions were coming.
    He invaded anyway. He is prepared to go to war. Sanctions don't bother him.
    Given the current response I think it's equally likely that harsh enough sanctions could bother Putin, but he believes that the probability of them being put in place is not high enough to worry about.