Poo tin... Put@in...
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It probably is... if by fighting they could get to a peace treaty involving some land concession to Russia and a commitment to not join NATO for X years, that would be worth fighting for... over being subjugated and become another Belarus...surrey_commuter said:
and is "some independence" worth hundreds of thousands of lives and destrcution of much of the country?
it is kind of a rhetorical questionleft the forum March 20230 -
I don't honestly know although my guess would be that the "pre-emptive" arming of Ukraine would have been seen by Putin as an indirect act of agression provoking him into a more "justifiable" reason to take action sooner. A chicken and egg situation of the worst kind. I also don't know whether this kind of support has been given over the past few years in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.surrey_commuter said:
Why do you reckon they have not spent the last decade arming them with handheld weapons to take out planes, helicopters and armour? to me it all seems a bit last minute and halfhearted and like most of the UK/EU sanctions being seen to do somethinglaurentian said:Surely Ukranian resistance is the one thing that all of the West / NATO are counting on to prevent a wider conflict. The way I see it, it's the only thing.
By my reckoning, the West/NATO will be sending as much military support, hardware, training, expertise etc as they possibly can to prop up the resistance.
As Ugo says, the longer it goes on, the more costly for Russia both financially and militarily buying time for the sanctions to bite and hopefully making the Russian invasion unsustainable. No idea how long this could take.Wilier Izoard XP0 -
Isn't that about as insightful as, "I sense you've had a recent loss, your mother, no father, I can hear Bernard, no John, no James he says he is okay now and the pain has gone away, no, that it was sudden and there was no pain."TheBigBean said:First.Aspect said:What has mi6 said? Sorry I am not on twatter or anything like that.
US and UK intelligence communities uncovered Putin’s plans for Ukraine. We exposed his attempts to engineer ‘false flag’, fake attacks to justify his invasion. We revealed his plans to assassinate Ukrainian leaders and senior officials.
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Apparently Putin would be happy to talk to Ukraine in exchange for demilitarisation and neutrality... it probably means Ukrainian resistance is beginning to bite.
Sign of weakness from Putin...
Is it just me who has this very satisfying thought of locking Putin and Vitali Klitschko in the same room alone for an hour or so?left the forum March 20230 -
It's maybe true that if Ukraine had been more heavily armed by the US, it would have been attacked. Surely it's been proved that this would not have been because of the arming of Ukraine.laurentian said:
I don't honestly know although my guess would be that the "pre-emptive" arming of Ukraine would have been seen by Putin as an indirect act of agression provoking him into a more "justifiable" reason to take action sooner. A chicken and egg situation of the worst kind. I also don't know whether this kind of support has been given over the past few years in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.surrey_commuter said:
Why do you reckon they have not spent the last decade arming them with handheld weapons to take out planes, helicopters and armour? to me it all seems a bit last minute and halfhearted and like most of the UK/EU sanctions being seen to do somethinglaurentian said:Surely Ukranian resistance is the one thing that all of the West / NATO are counting on to prevent a wider conflict. The way I see it, it's the only thing.
By my reckoning, the West/NATO will be sending as much military support, hardware, training, expertise etc as they possibly can to prop up the resistance.
As Ugo says, the longer it goes on, the more costly for Russia both financially and militarily buying time for the sanctions to bite and hopefully making the Russian invasion unsustainable. No idea how long this could take.0 -
I seem to recall that Stalin killed an estimated 3.5 to 5 million Ukrainians in the 1930s by starving them to death. Hitler was almost humaine in comparison. It is called the Holodomor.ugo.santalucia said:
After the intial attack wiped out their air defences i am starting to think that Ukraine should have surrendered to keep their people alive and infrastructure intact. Even if they blow every brdige and fight tothe last man the outcome will be the same.
Entirely depends on the collective willingness to fight - and lots of thins feed into that. If they're frightened of what the Russians will do when they're there, that can easily stiffen the resolve. It is after all, their own country - defending your homeland is just different and I can't even imagine what the weigh up must be. You don't need *that* many people to take up arms.
So not much love for Ivan in Ukraine.
BASI Nordic Ski Instructor
Instagramme0 -
Yes, I take your point - ultimately, it looks like Putin was hell bent on this course of action regardless of the state of the Ukranian military, it's ambitions with regard to NATO or any amount of dialogue.kingstongraham said:
It's maybe true that if Ukraine had been more heavily armed by the US, it would have been attacked. Surely it's been proved that this would not have been because of the arming of Ukraine.laurentian said:
I don't honestly know although my guess would be that the "pre-emptive" arming of Ukraine would have been seen by Putin as an indirect act of agression provoking him into a more "justifiable" reason to take action sooner. A chicken and egg situation of the worst kind. I also don't know whether this kind of support has been given over the past few years in Donetsk and Luhansk regions.surrey_commuter said:
Why do you reckon they have not spent the last decade arming them with handheld weapons to take out planes, helicopters and armour? to me it all seems a bit last minute and halfhearted and like most of the UK/EU sanctions being seen to do somethinglaurentian said:Surely Ukranian resistance is the one thing that all of the West / NATO are counting on to prevent a wider conflict. The way I see it, it's the only thing.
By my reckoning, the West/NATO will be sending as much military support, hardware, training, expertise etc as they possibly can to prop up the resistance.
As Ugo says, the longer it goes on, the more costly for Russia both financially and militarily buying time for the sanctions to bite and hopefully making the Russian invasion unsustainable. No idea how long this could take.Wilier Izoard XP0 -
It is not so much about invasion it is more about autonomy. Germany is often held up as a long thinking democracy hence their good industrial policy etc. In the last two decades they have given up nuclear power in favour of gas supplies from Russia on the mean assumption that their interests would be aligned. Now they are in a bind where the sanction they need to do is not take gas but that cripples their economy. I would want as many countries between me and Russia as possible. As has been demonstrated in Ukraine if you can't beat their initial offence then you are destined to guerilla warfare and draw out issues. Planes don't take long to get to their bombing targets in the EU these days.rick_chasey said:
What is the real threat to Germany? Do you think Russia is going to invade Germany?john80 said:
I too think that Germany are totally underestimating the threat from Russia given their position and gas dependency.rick_chasey said:
SWIFT seems very small fry surely. I appreciate its a anti-EU hobby horse.TheBigBean said:After bravely choosing to not use an unused pipeline, Germany seem to have blocked taking action on swift payments.
Italians are also worried about their handbags, Belgians diamonds, and the UK its lawyers and financiers
Sberbank being locked out the US correspondent banking network is several orders of magnitude bigger. That was a big US flex - not sure it has happened before.
Germans should be more preoccupied with tooling up.0 -
ugo.santalucia said:
Apparently Putin would be happy to talk to Ukraine in exchange for demilitarisation and neutrality... it probably means Ukrainian resistance is beginning to bite.
Sign of weakness from Putin...
Is it just me who has this very satisfying thought of locking Putin and Vitali Klitschko in the same room alone for an hour or so?
Putin's proposal is for talks in Minsk, where he would just abduct the Ukrainian leaders and we'd never see or hear of them again.
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For the record, I never said those things… misuse of the quote functiondavidof said:
I seem to recall that Stalin killed an estimated 3.5 to 5 million Ukrainians in the 1930s by starving them to death. Hitler was almost humaine in comparison. It is called the Holodomor.ugo.santalucia said:
After the intial attack wiped out their air defences i am starting to think that Ukraine should have surrendered to keep their people alive and infrastructure intact. Even if they blow every brdige and fight tothe last man the outcome will be the same.
Entirely depends on the collective willingness to fight - and lots of thins feed into that. If they're frightened of what the Russians will do when they're there, that can easily stiffen the resolve. It is after all, their own country - defending your homeland is just different and I can't even imagine what the weigh up must be. You don't need *that* many people to take up arms.
So not much love for Ivan in Ukraine.
left the forum March 20230 -
According to Repubblica, Xi Ping has called Putin stressing that they support dialogue between Russia and Ukraine… interestingleft the forum March 20230
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Sounds a bit like a Hollywood plot… then Gerard Butler would go to their rescue, I presumeDorset_Boy said:ugo.santalucia said:Apparently Putin would be happy to talk to Ukraine in exchange for demilitarisation and neutrality... it probably means Ukrainian resistance is beginning to bite.
Sign of weakness from Putin...
Is it just me who has this very satisfying thought of locking Putin and Vitali Klitschko in the same room alone for an hour or so?
Putin's proposal is for talks in Minsk, where he would just abduct the Ukrainian leaders and we'd never see or hear of them again.
left the forum March 20230 -
A crazy developmentDorset_Boy said:ugo.santalucia said:Apparently Putin would be happy to talk to Ukraine in exchange for demilitarisation and neutrality... it probably means Ukrainian resistance is beginning to bite.
Sign of weakness from Putin...
Is it just me who has this very satisfying thought of locking Putin and Vitali Klitschko in the same room alone for an hour or so?
Putin's proposal is for talks in Minsk, where he would just abduct the Ukrainian leaders and we'd never see or hear of them again.0 -
I guess this all throws the Trump-Ukraine scandal during the last US election into a different light.
Russian TV has been using his quote that he thinks Putin is a "genius" the last few days.
Given how pro-Russia the GOP have been, it is rather worrying that Europe is so reliant on NATO as it is.
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I have to say, I am mightily distracted by all of this.
Totally trivial as it's nothing to do with me and has no material impact on my life, but a mixture of having spent a lot of spare time in my teens and 20s studying life and wars with and in the soviet union I guess it has an outsized spot in my head.
I get real surges of delight when I hear the Ukrainians halting the Russians and winning small victories, and I'm moved by their stories - I guess that is part of the propaganda war.
I guess being a father makes you more emotional when it comes to these kinds of things as I suspect my reaction would have been rather more hard nosed a few years ago.0 -
rick_chasey said:
I have to say, I am mightily distracted by all of this.
Totally trivial as it's nothing to do with me and has no material impact on my life, but a mixture of having spent a lot of spare time in my teens and 20s studying life and wars with and in the soviet union I guess it has an outsized spot in my head.
I get real surges of delight when I hear the Ukrainians halting the Russians and winning small victories, and I'm moved by their stories - I guess that is part of the propaganda war.
I guess being a father makes you more emotional when it comes to these kinds of things as I suspect my reaction would have been rather more hard nosed a few years ago.
D'you ever feel like you're talking to yourself?
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Obviously not as you've replied.joe2019 said:rick_chasey said:I have to say, I am mightily distracted by all of this.
Totally trivial as it's nothing to do with me and has no material impact on my life, but a mixture of having spent a lot of spare time in my teens and 20s studying life and wars with and in the soviet union I guess it has an outsized spot in my head.
I get real surges of delight when I hear the Ukrainians halting the Russians and winning small victories, and I'm moved by their stories - I guess that is part of the propaganda war.
I guess being a father makes you more emotional when it comes to these kinds of things as I suspect my reaction would have been rather more hard nosed a few years ago.
D'you ever feel like you're talking to yourself?3 -
Pross said:
Obviously not as you've replied.joe2019 said:rick_chasey said:I have to say, I am mightily distracted by all of this.
Totally trivial as it's nothing to do with me and has no material impact on my life, but a mixture of having spent a lot of spare time in my teens and 20s studying life and wars with and in the soviet union I guess it has an outsized spot in my head.
I get real surges of delight when I hear the Ukrainians halting the Russians and winning small victories, and I'm moved by their stories - I guess that is part of the propaganda war.
I guess being a father makes you more emotional when it comes to these kinds of things as I suspect my reaction would have been rather more hard nosed a few years ago.
D'you ever feel like you're talking to yourself?
Well spotted...0 -
Dubliners having a word with the Russian Ambassador
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!1 -
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if you are a subscriber to the economist then you can probably access a webinar they did this afternoon with defence and Moscow correspondents which was quite insightful.rick_chasey said:I have to say, I am mightily distracted by all of this.
Totally trivial as it's nothing to do with me and has no material impact on my life, but a mixture of having spent a lot of spare time in my teens and 20s studying life and wars with and in the soviet union I guess it has an outsized spot in my head.
I get real surges of delight when I hear the Ukrainians halting the Russians and winning small victories, and I'm moved by their stories - I guess that is part of the propaganda war.
I guess being a father makes you more emotional when it comes to these kinds of things as I suspect my reaction would have been rather more hard nosed a few years ago.
Didn't take notes but they felt Moldova or Finland could be next. Ukraine forces doing better than expected. Guerilla warfare likely to be western region only for geo and historic reasons. Russia does not have the manpower to occupy the whole country. Velensky probably a dead man but very brave.
Most importantly Russian people were not prepared for this and are in unhappy shock unlike the triumphalism seen previously0 -
You couldn't make it up!mrb123 said:0 -
Just doing my job. Fortunately nobody is in danger as our operation is in Moscow with no Western expats and we have nothing in Ukraine. It's more about treasury and product shipment issues, plus dealing with risks of sanctions in those areas.rick_chasey said:
Sorry to hear that.Stevo_666 said:
Just smiling to myself and wondering who might replyrick_chasey said:Relax Stevo, Nice way to scratch the itch of discussing it without cheesing people off in real life who don’t want to.
Actually been quite busy this last couple of days dealing with real life business consequences and risk mitigation related to Russia."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Good for them
Got a link to the webinar? - v interestedsurrey_commuter said:
if you are a subscriber to the economist then you can probably access a webinar they did this afternoon with defence and Moscow correspondents which was quite insightful.rick_chasey said:I have to say, I am mightily distracted by all of this.
Totally trivial as it's nothing to do with me and has no material impact on my life, but a mixture of having spent a lot of spare time in my teens and 20s studying life and wars with and in the soviet union I guess it has an outsized spot in my head.
I get real surges of delight when I hear the Ukrainians halting the Russians and winning small victories, and I'm moved by their stories - I guess that is part of the propaganda war.
I guess being a father makes you more emotional when it comes to these kinds of things as I suspect my reaction would have been rather more hard nosed a few years ago.
Didn't take notes but they felt Moldova or Finland could be next. Ukraine forces doing better than expected. Guerilla warfare likely to be western region only for geo and historic reasons. Russia does not have the manpower to occupy the whole country. Velensky probably a dead man but very brave.
Most importantly Russian people were not prepared for this and are in unhappy shock unlike the triumphalism seen previously0 -
People at either end of the spectrum have no interest in democracy.surrey_commuter said:
I'd hazard the difference between far left pro-Russia and far right pro-Russia is far right actually likes him, whereas far left see America as the evil empire and any enemy of America is a friend of theirs.0 -
All the shitehawks in US and UK public life really being shown for what they are
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!2 -
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Anyone think it is all over once Ukraine dies down? Think again.surrey_commuter said:
if you are a subscriber to the economist then you can probably access a webinar they did this afternoon with defence and Moscow correspondents which was quite insightful.rick_chasey said:I have to say, I am mightily distracted by all of this.
Totally trivial as it's nothing to do with me and has no material impact on my life, but a mixture of having spent a lot of spare time in my teens and 20s studying life and wars with and in the soviet union I guess it has an outsized spot in my head.
I get real surges of delight when I hear the Ukrainians halting the Russians and winning small victories, and I'm moved by their stories - I guess that is part of the propaganda war.
I guess being a father makes you more emotional when it comes to these kinds of things as I suspect my reaction would have been rather more hard nosed a few years ago.
Didn't take notes but they felt Moldova or Finland could be next. Ukraine forces doing better than expected. Guerilla warfare likely to be western region only for geo and historic reasons. Russia does not have the manpower to occupy the whole country. Velensky probably a dead man but very brave.
Most importantly Russian people were not prepared for this and are in unhappy shock unlike the triumphalism seen previously
"Russia has warned of "serious consequences" if Finland or Sweden were to join the Nato alliance."
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Yes I wonder if the silver lining to all of this will be that the likes of Trump will instantaneously become yesterday's news. The GOP responses so far have been fairly conventionally partisan, rather than batshit crazy partisan.tailwindhome said:All the shitehawks in US and UK public life really being shown for what they are
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