Poo tin... Put@in...

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  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    rick_chasey said:

    First.Aspect said:

    China holds the key to how long this goes on.

    I don't see that as a good thing.

    In what sense do they hold the keys?

    I get they’re a global superpower and ally yadayada but in practice what keys do they hold and what leverage do they really have?

    They are by far the biggest importer of Russian oil and gas, and oil and gas is propping up the Russian economy. Otherwise Russia is quire insular (he's been preparing for a long time).

    Without China, the sanctions are going to bite, but not enough to really make any difference to the people at the top.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    Could be the end of Putin.

    Ben Wallace seems to think so, but then he was also making inane comments about the Scots Guards beating the Tsar's troops in 1853 as if that was somehow comparable.
    I'd like to see a piece on who his successors might be and who might make a move.

    I think Ben Wallace is in a perpetual war.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    Could be the end of Putin.

    Ben Wallace seems to think so, but then he was also making inane comments about the Scots Guards beating the Tsar's troops in 1853 as if that was somehow comparable.
    surely that was a rallying call to the troops that should never have been broadcast to a wider audience.

    It is particularly unhelpful when the Russians believe that they have always been invaded by the west
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited February 2022
    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    First.Aspect said:

    China holds the key to how long this goes on.

    I don't see that as a good thing.

    In what sense do they hold the keys?

    I get they’re a global superpower and ally yadayada but in practice what keys do they hold and what leverage do they really have?

    They are by far the biggest importer of Russian oil and gas, and oil and gas is propping up the Russian economy. Otherwise Russia is quire insular (he's been preparing for a long time).

    Without China, the sanctions are going to bite, but not enough to really make any difference to the people at the top.
    I don’t think China cares about Russia much and I don’t think it thinks much about Russia or Ukraine for that matter. And as much as the Russian want to sell them strategic resources the Chinese want them.

    Sanctions never really bite.

    Nor does Putin really care about impoverishing his own people it seems. He wants maps covered in Russian flags

    _
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    Some are making the argument that if you deport large numbers of Russian citizens from the UK and freeze their assets these are the power brokers for Putin that might not want to be stuck in Moscow for the next ten years. Russia is a true basket case of a country. The people of Russia must be amazed as to how they went from superpower to a GDP just above Spain with probably twice the population and a mega country size. No freedom of expression or speech. It is just a car crash. This is before we get to the cost that will likely be inflicted on his troops in the coming months as Ukraine's population pivots to a insurgency style conflict. 200000 sounds like a big number till you can' walk down the street without getting sniped by a Ukranian that is somewhat annoyed at the current state of play.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,554
    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    Could be the end of Putin.

    Ben Wallace seems to think so, but then he was also making inane comments about the Scots Guards beating the Tsar's troops in 1853 as if that was somehow comparable.
    surely that was a rallying call to the troops that should never have been broadcast to a wider audience.

    It is particularly unhelpful when the Russians believe that they have always been invaded by the west
    Somewhat demeaning to the intelligence of the troops and a bit of a gift to Putin. Just a stupid thing to say. As relevant as wanging on about Agincourt.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,312
    Sanctions...
    A study forecasts they will impact German economy by 0.2% of GDP and Russia by 2.9% of GDP. Worth going ahead, but hardly life changing... it's not exactly that strangle hold on Russian economy the west seems to think
    left the forum March 2023
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    edited February 2022
    ugo.santalucia said:

    Sanctions...
    A study forecasts they will impact German economy by 0.2% of GDP and Russia by 2.9% of GDP. Worth going ahead, but hardly life changing... it's not exactly that strangle hold on Russian economy the west seems to think

    The plan is more about individuals I think. Who already don't give a shit if most of Russia is like Borats home town. But who might give a shit if they have to live there or be less disgustingly rich.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    Is anyone else getting these odd residual bits of text in posts that you've either already made or decided against? If is really annoying.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,411
    We're having fun mitigating the risks in our business - fortunately our Russian operation is quite small and we had the foresight to get a good chunk of money out a week or so ago. Now waiting to see what the next round of sanctions do: looks like pulling the plug on Russian access to the SWIFT system is seen as a step to far at present.

    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,312
    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Sanctions...
    A study forecasts they will impact German economy by 0.2% of GDP and Russia by 2.9% of GDP. Worth going ahead, but hardly life changing... it's not exactly that strangle hold on Russian economy the west seems to think

    The plan is more about individuals I think. Who already don't give a censored if most of Russia is like Borats home town. But who might give a censored if they have to live there or be less disgustingly rich.
    Shouldn't be a problem for them to find somewhere else nice to live. Plenty of nations happy to sell you citizenship in return for cash... especially when there is loads of...
    left the forum March 2023
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited February 2022
    So all the initial reports of Russian ground forces sticking to roads and the thrust of the initial attacks being via helicopter would align with the fact the timing is sub-optimal for attackers given it's mud season.

    (not that it matters, but here's hoping the Ukrainian's put up an incredibly stiff resistant and make the Russian f*cking pay)
    _
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    Be interesting to see just how much appetite there is for sanctions - as someone else said how much pain we are willing to inflict on ourselves.

    If the reaction isn't strong does it send a message to other nations - does China have another look at Taiwan (I realise that brings them into more of a direct conflict with the USA).

    I guess we'll now see increased militarisation of NATO countries bordering Russia /Ukraine /Belarus - just to eliminate any risk of Putin chancing his arm at grabbing part of one of those nations. Maybe a guerilla resistance in Ukraine - backed by the West ?

    Re China - there is potential for conflict there given they are neighbours and apparently China doesn't really see Russia as a great power - if Russia does try and turn more towards China you can pretty much guarantee it'll be on China's terms too.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    rick_chasey said:

    So all the initial reports of Russian ground forces sticking to roads and the thrust of the initial attacks being via helicopter would align with the fact the timing is sub-optimal for attackers given it's mud season.

    (not that it matters, but here's hoping the Ukrainian's put up an incredibly stiff resistant and make the Russian f*cking pay)

    Not massively enthusiastic about the pawns being sacrificed, personally.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    ugo.santalucia said:

    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Sanctions...
    A study forecasts they will impact German economy by 0.2% of GDP and Russia by 2.9% of GDP. Worth going ahead, but hardly life changing... it's not exactly that strangle hold on Russian economy the west seems to think

    The plan is more about individuals I think. Who already don't give a censored if most of Russia is like Borats home town. But who might give a censored if they have to live there or be less disgustingly rich.
    Shouldn't be a problem for them to find somewhere else nice to live. Plenty of nations happy to sell you citizenship in return for cash... especially when there is loads of...
    They could emigrate to Patagonia and live with Hitler's grandkids you mean?
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,554
    First.Aspect said:

    Is anyone else getting these odd residual bits of text in posts that you've either already made or decided against? If is really annoying.

    Yes. If you draft something and then change your mind, the bit of text will hang around until you next post in that thread and paste in ahead of what you wanted to post. Must be caching the text to 'help improve user experience'. Like the MS paperclip gone rogue.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited February 2022
    rick_chasey said:


    Shows how accurate US intelligence was. 4th December.

    (it also didn't get traction on here for another 3-4 weeks...!)
    _
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,329
    TBF we were still weeks ahead of the UK mainstream media.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,151
    edited February 2022
    American Intelligence was spot on. The EU had their heads firmly buried in the sand though, akin to Covid.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,312
    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Sanctions...
    A study forecasts they will impact German economy by 0.2% of GDP and Russia by 2.9% of GDP. Worth going ahead, but hardly life changing... it's not exactly that strangle hold on Russian economy the west seems to think

    The plan is more about individuals I think. Who already don't give a censored if most of Russia is like Borats home town. But who might give a censored if they have to live there or be less disgustingly rich.
    Shouldn't be a problem for them to find somewhere else nice to live. Plenty of nations happy to sell you citizenship in return for cash... especially when there is loads of...
    They could emigrate to Patagonia and live with Hitler's grandkids you mean?
    I am sure there will be plenty of tax havens happy to host them and I am equally sure they would not face any sanctions themselves for doing so...
    left the forum March 2023
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    ugo.santalucia said:

    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Sanctions...
    A study forecasts they will impact German economy by 0.2% of GDP and Russia by 2.9% of GDP. Worth going ahead, but hardly life changing... it's not exactly that strangle hold on Russian economy the west seems to think

    The plan is more about individuals I think. Who already don't give a censored if most of Russia is like Borats home town. But who might give a censored if they have to live there or be less disgustingly rich.
    Shouldn't be a problem for them to find somewhere else nice to live. Plenty of nations happy to sell you citizenship in return for cash... especially when there is loads of...
    They could emigrate to Patagonia and live with Hitler's grandkids you mean?
    I am sure there will be plenty of tax havens happy to host them and I am equally sure they would not face any sanctions themselves for doing so...
    Less sure about that. Big Bean might be able to explain the available mechanisms for freezing people out of international banking. I haven't got a scoobie's.
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,312
    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Sanctions...
    A study forecasts they will impact German economy by 0.2% of GDP and Russia by 2.9% of GDP. Worth going ahead, but hardly life changing... it's not exactly that strangle hold on Russian economy the west seems to think

    The plan is more about individuals I think. Who already don't give a censored if most of Russia is like Borats home town. But who might give a censored if they have to live there or be less disgustingly rich.
    Shouldn't be a problem for them to find somewhere else nice to live. Plenty of nations happy to sell you citizenship in return for cash... especially when there is loads of...
    They could emigrate to Patagonia and live with Hitler's grandkids you mean?
    I am sure there will be plenty of tax havens happy to host them and I am equally sure they would not face any sanctions themselves for doing so...
    Less sure about that. Big Bean might be able to explain the available mechanisms for freezing people out of international banking. I haven't got a scoobie's.
    I think Al Capone must have been the last crook done for tax evasion... these people have ways to go by without ever having to use their name... they will have funds as part of an off shore venture, which is owned by a Chinese Company, which in turn is owned by an American pension fund, which also owns some of the British public debt...
    left the forum March 2023
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,312
    ... anyway, I'm not sure a Ukraine run by a puppet of Putin would be much worse off than one run by one of the many incompetent they've had over the past few decades
    left the forum March 2023
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    ugo.santalucia said:

    ... anyway, I'm not sure a Ukraine run by a puppet of Putin would be much worse off than one run by one of the many incompetent they've had over the past few decades

    It should be their choice though. I assume you get that part.
  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 17,349
    rick_chasey said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    First.Aspect said:

    China holds the key to how long this goes on.

    I don't see that as a good thing.

    In what sense do they hold the keys?

    I get they’re a global superpower and ally yadayada but in practice what keys do they hold and what leverage do they really have?

    They are by far the biggest importer of Russian oil and gas, and oil and gas is propping up the Russian economy. Otherwise Russia is quire insular (he's been preparing for a long time).

    Without China, the sanctions are going to bite, but not enough to really make any difference to the people at the top.
    I don’t think China cares about Russia much and I don’t think it thinks much about Russia or Ukraine for that matter. And as much as the Russian want to sell them strategic resources the Chinese want them.

    Sanctions never really bite.

    Nor does Putin really care about impoverishing his own people it seems. He wants maps covered in Russian flags

    putin's inferiority complex is even bigger than trump's, but unlike trump his ability to strike militarily is subject to no meaningful control - barring someone close to him deciding enough is enough and assassinating him

    unfortunately, the rest of the world failed to adequately react to putin's years' of overt/covert aggression, and he's succeeded in rolling back russian institutions to near-soviet conditions

    chechnya, georgia, belarus, crimea, it's not as if we couldn't see what was going on

    now it's too late, we're not (i hope) going to have a nuclear war, therefore putin can do pretty much what he likes to non-nato countries

    though tbh i doubt the resolve/ability of nato to act successfully even were he to start, say, leaning on the ex-soviet bloc nato members, hungary might even side with putin

    china will do nothing, it doesn't care what russia does to other countries, but it will observe the rest of world's reaction as an indicator of what would happen if, say, it seized taiwan

    xi's been doing a putin for many years, uighurs, south china sea actions, forcing hong kong under ccp rule and eliminating freedoms had no meaningful consequences, his next step can be bigger

    lukashenko, erdogan, orban etc. all follow the same playbook and face few consequences, but they lack the serious weaponry, so who cares

    in spite of wwii and the cold war, our democracies consistently failed to recognise that freedom needs to be actively maintained and that it takes resolve and money

    otherwise it is eroded/subverted and we are back where we started, but with more lethal weapons

    it wasn't fun last time, it won't be this time, sigh
    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,312
    First.Aspect said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    ... anyway, I'm not sure a Ukraine run by a puppet of Putin would be much worse off than one run by one of the many incompetent they've had over the past few decades

    It should be their choice though. I assume you get that part.
    It should be, yes.
    The problem is that Ukraine is profoundly divided... over the years they've had leaders who were pro-west and leaders who were pro-Russia... hence unable to make any progress one way or the other, with each government undoing the work of the previous.
    A split of the nation is almost inevitable, but I think either side would like to retain independence from Russia, or at least that's what they voted for (albeit it was "only 55% who wanted independence in some eastern regions, so not a million miles off the % of people who wanted independence for Scotland).
    left the forum March 2023
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,312
    Blitzkrieg, by the look of things...
    Kiev might fall in days. As seen in Syria, it looks like Russia is a lot more effective than the US, when it comes to warfare.
    left the forum March 2023
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    ugo.santalucia said:

    Blitzkrieg, by the look of things...
    Kiev might fall in days. As seen in Syria, it looks like Russia is a lot more effective than the US, when it comes to warfare.

    If Ukraine falls that quickly and without much Russian cost you can only assume their heart was not really in it as they do have some weaponry. However my hunch is that Ukraine realising it does not have the forces to take a battle to a border and win is instead letting them progress where they will then resort to guerrilla warfare style tactics to extract their cost once Russian has a larger area to control. What sort of body count in Russians does it have to get to before it becomes a problem for Putin? 10% of 200000 or does it need to get to 25%?
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,312
    john80 said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Blitzkrieg, by the look of things...
    Kiev might fall in days. As seen in Syria, it looks like Russia is a lot more effective than the US, when it comes to warfare.

    If Ukraine falls that quickly and without much Russian cost you can only assume their heart was not really in it as they do have some weaponry.
    I was hoping they would strike from the air at the invaders on the ground, but looking at their air force, it seems they are a bit dated on technology and probably useless...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Current_inventory

    left the forum March 2023
  • joe2019
    joe2019 Posts: 1,338
    ugo.santalucia said:

    john80 said:

    ugo.santalucia said:

    Blitzkrieg, by the look of things...
    Kiev might fall in days. As seen in Syria, it looks like Russia is a lot more effective than the US, when it comes to warfare.

    If Ukraine falls that quickly and without much Russian cost you can only assume their heart was not really in it as they do have some weaponry.
    I was hoping they would strike from the air at the invaders on the ground, but looking at their air force, it seems they are a bit dated on technology and probably useless...

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ukrainian_Air_Force#Current_inventory



    You should look at a career in the MOD.


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