Poo tin... Put@in...
Comments
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If the Taliban managed to defeat the US (and allies), I think Ukraine stand a decent chance with Russia.surrey_commuter said:
Military history fascinates me and have read and watched rather too much over the years but I would say that your comparison is completely wrong. It sounds glib to say that your family ending up in a war zone is a thousand times worse but the two are really not comparable. One is rockets and shells raining down on buildings randomly killing families and the other is staying indoors watching Netflix.Pross said:
Poor wording on my part no doubt. I'm not suggesting it is anything like the same thing but I think those initial stages of the pandemic where people were quite panicky and we had queues for food and impact on our daily lives are, fortunately, the closest we've been to being in a country at war in my lifetime (as I said, without the daily risk to your property). I don't think many of us coped very well so when that is multiplied by however many times as it is in a war zone it always surpises me how resilient many of the people are.surrey_commuter said:
Apologies if I missed it but what happened to you 2 years ago?Pross said:
Yep, I think 2 years ago we got the closest (I hope) we'll ever get to discovering how we'd cope in a war situation albeit without our homes under constant threat of destruction and I don't think it reflected very well. You see these people being interviewed on TV who have already lost everything once fleeing places like Donetsk and are now having to go through it again.focuszing723 said:
Well on the plus side, we might not be at the bottom anymore for stupidly weakening the EU.Pross said:I'm guessing they won't get their usual high marks from the Ukrainian jury (or some others in the area).
Although I can be flippant (because it's crazy to comprehend), I do have real empathy for all the people involved who just want to get on with their lives and make the best of it.
No doubt many in our country will be opposed to us providing them with refuge though and will label them as scroungers looking for an easy life on benefits.
I know they don't have much choice and in many war zones have had hardship all their lives (less so in Ukraine I suspect) but when you think about how people talk about the impact on mental health the pandemic had I just don't know how these people get through each day.
I work with a Lithuanian and she is more worried about the impact of a Russian invasion on her family than she ever was about Covid. Imagine what that is like for a Ukranian.
A I say above in many ways they would do better not fighting a war they can not win.0 -
Exactly... there is a cost associated to freedom... if you prefer not to pay it, then you won't have any... Ukraine can decide that being under Russian rule is not the end of the world and not worth dying for... or they can decide that it is not acceptable and it is worth dying for...rick_chasey said:
Of course. That's with any fight.surrey_commuter said:
But you are talking about making a Russian win more costly. In doing that the Ukranians are making their loss greaterrick_chasey said:
Entirely depends on the collective willingness to fight - and lots of thins feed into that. If they're frightened of what the Russians will do when they're there, that can easily stiffen the resolve. It is after all, their own country - defending your homeland is just different and I can't even imagine what the weigh up must be. You don't need *that* many people to take up arms.surrey_commuter said:
After the intial attack wiped out their air defences i am starting to think that Ukraine should have surrendered to keep their people alive and infrastructure intact. Even if they blow every brdige and fight tothe last man the outcome will be the same.
If the Ukranians decide to retreat and fight urban warfare against the Russians they can make the war incredibly costly for everyone, and it would be extremely bloody, but of course, it is just so incredibly destructive, but the price to win it for the Russians would be astronomical.
I'm not suggesting they should - I can't really put myself in their shoes and say they should do this or that. I don't even know how I would react if my country was invaded like that.
The world expect them to fight for their freedom... if they surrender their weapons within days of the invasion, there won't be much support going forward, I suspectleft the forum March 20230 -
I'm not gonna sit here and ever say it's better to stick your neck on the line or not. I'm not in the situation, I wouldn't judge anyone either way. You can only respect the guys who were on that island who told the Russians to f*ck off, but then you wonder what was the point. Anyway, I have a lot of conflicting views on the issue.
Rumours are that the Russians are planning to basically paradrop a huge amount of troops into Kyiv about the same time as local terrorists sabotage the power grids, cyber attacks hit the websites and basically force the leadership to withdraw, - and create so much chaos they can capture general staff, cabinet and then declare victory...0 -
Surely Ukranian resistance is the one thing that all of the West / NATO are counting on to prevent a wider conflict. The way I see it, it's the only thing.
By my reckoning, the West/NATO will be sending as much military support, hardware, training, expertise etc as they possibly can to prop up the resistance.
As Ugo says, the longer it goes on, the more costly for Russia both financially and militarily buying time for the sanctions to bite and hopefully making the Russian invasion unsustainable. No idea how long this could take.Wilier Izoard XP0 -
A Russian airspace ban has the potential to be annoying if it stays in place.0
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I too think that Germany are totally underestimating the threat from Russia given their position and gas dependency.rick_chasey said:
SWIFT seems very small fry surely. I appreciate its a anti-EU hobby horse.TheBigBean said:After bravely choosing to not use an unused pipeline, Germany seem to have blocked taking action on swift payments.
Italians are also worried about their handbags, Belgians diamonds, and the UK its lawyers and financiers
Sberbank being locked out the US correspondent banking network is several orders of magnitude bigger. That was a big US flex - not sure it has happened before.
Germans should be more preoccupied with tooling up.0 -
I still think this is interesting. Are MI6 publicly telling Putin he has a mole and therefore should watch his back?TheBigBean said:I think MI6 tweeting about their own brilliance is quite interesting. Presumably there is more than meeets the eye.
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What has mi6 said? Sorry I am not on twatter or anything like that.0
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Just smiling to myself and wondering who might replyrick_chasey said:Relax Stevo, Nice way to scratch the itch of discussing it without cheesing people off in real life who don’t want to.
Actually been quite busy this last couple of days dealing with real life business consequences and risk mitigation related to Russia."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Sorry to hear that.Stevo_666 said:
Just smiling to myself and wondering who might replyrick_chasey said:Relax Stevo, Nice way to scratch the itch of discussing it without cheesing people off in real life who don’t want to.
Actually been quite busy this last couple of days dealing with real life business consequences and risk mitigation related to Russia.0 -
He almost certainly has given the quality of the US intelligence. They said this was happening 2 and a half months before it happened, with very accurate troop numbers and information on where and how the attack would happen.TheBigBean said:
I still think this is interesting. Are MI6 publicly telling Putin he has a mole and therefore should watch his back?TheBigBean said:I think MI6 tweeting about their own brilliance is quite interesting. Presumably there is more than meeets the eye.
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What is the real threat to Germany? Do you think Russia is going to invade Germany?john80 said:
I too think that Germany are totally underestimating the threat from Russia given their position and gas dependency.rick_chasey said:
SWIFT seems very small fry surely. I appreciate its a anti-EU hobby horse.TheBigBean said:After bravely choosing to not use an unused pipeline, Germany seem to have blocked taking action on swift payments.
Italians are also worried about their handbags, Belgians diamonds, and the UK its lawyers and financiers
Sberbank being locked out the US correspondent banking network is several orders of magnitude bigger. That was a big US flex - not sure it has happened before.
Germans should be more preoccupied with tooling up.0 -
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To get nealy 200,000 troops and their equipment in the right place is an enormous logistical exercise and there is no way of hiding it. From satellites alone I imagine they could have named the regiments involvedrick_chasey said:
He almost certainly has given the quality of the US intelligence. They said this was happening 2 and a half months before it happened, with very accurate troop numbers and information on where and how the attack would happen.TheBigBean said:
I still think this is interesting. Are MI6 publicly telling Putin he has a mole and therefore should watch his back?TheBigBean said:I think MI6 tweeting about their own brilliance is quite interesting. Presumably there is more than meeets the eye.
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Obviously bad wording on my part, my comparison was intended more of the impact on day to day life e.g. struggling to get hold of basic supplies and move around freely. I think April 2020 was the first time most of us experienced anything like that and we were pretty shit at coping with it. I remember finding it quite chilling seeing soldiers on the streets of Western European countries enforcing curfews although we never got to that stage.surrey_commuter said:
Military history fascinates me and have read and watched rather too much over the years but I would say that your comparison is completely wrong. It sounds glib to say that your family ending up in a war zone is a thousand times worse but the two are really not comparable. One is rockets and shells raining down on buildings randomly killing families and the other is staying indoors watching Netflix.Pross said:
Poor wording on my part no doubt. I'm not suggesting it is anything like the same thing but I think those initial stages of the pandemic where people were quite panicky and we had queues for food and impact on our daily lives are, fortunately, the closest we've been to being in a country at war in my lifetime (as I said, without the daily risk to your property). I don't think many of us coped very well so when that is multiplied by however many times as it is in a war zone it always surpises me how resilient many of the people are.surrey_commuter said:
Apologies if I missed it but what happened to you 2 years ago?Pross said:
Yep, I think 2 years ago we got the closest (I hope) we'll ever get to discovering how we'd cope in a war situation albeit without our homes under constant threat of destruction and I don't think it reflected very well. You see these people being interviewed on TV who have already lost everything once fleeing places like Donetsk and are now having to go through it again.focuszing723 said:
Well on the plus side, we might not be at the bottom anymore for stupidly weakening the EU.Pross said:I'm guessing they won't get their usual high marks from the Ukrainian jury (or some others in the area).
Although I can be flippant (because it's crazy to comprehend), I do have real empathy for all the people involved who just want to get on with their lives and make the best of it.
No doubt many in our country will be opposed to us providing them with refuge though and will label them as scroungers looking for an easy life on benefits.
I know they don't have much choice and in many war zones have had hardship all their lives (less so in Ukraine I suspect) but when you think about how people talk about the impact on mental health the pandemic had I just don't know how these people get through each day.
I work with a Lithuanian and she is more worried about the impact of a Russian invasion on her family than she ever was about Covid. Imagine what that is like for a Ukranian.
A I say above in many ways they would do better not fighting a war they can not win.
That said, I think you may also be forgetting how much fear there was back in the early stages of the pandemic with thousands dying each day and no-one really knowing how to keep safe from it or if they / a loved one were next. As I said, not intended as a direct comparison but (fotunately) the closest most of us have ever been.0 -
First.Aspect said:
What has mi6 said? Sorry I am not on twatter or anything like that.
US and UK intelligence communities uncovered Putin’s plans for Ukraine. We exposed his attempts to engineer ‘false flag’, fake attacks to justify his invasion. We revealed his plans to assassinate Ukrainian leaders and senior officials.0 -
Why do you reckon they have not spent the last decade arming them with handheld weapons to take out planes, helicopters and armour? to me it all seems a bit last minute and halfhearted and like most of the UK/EU sanctions being seen to do somethinglaurentian said:Surely Ukranian resistance is the one thing that all of the West / NATO are counting on to prevent a wider conflict. The way I see it, it's the only thing.
By my reckoning, the West/NATO will be sending as much military support, hardware, training, expertise etc as they possibly can to prop up the resistance.
As Ugo says, the longer it goes on, the more costly for Russia both financially and militarily buying time for the sanctions to bite and hopefully making the Russian invasion unsustainable. No idea how long this could take.0 -
They called it long before they put troops there.surrey_commuter said:
To get nealy 200,000 troops and their equipment in the right place is an enormous logistical exercise and there is no way of hiding it. From satellites alone I imagine they could have named the regiments involvedrick_chasey said:
He almost certainly has given the quality of the US intelligence. They said this was happening 2 and a half months before it happened, with very accurate troop numbers and information on where and how the attack would happen.TheBigBean said:
I still think this is interesting. Are MI6 publicly telling Putin he has a mole and therefore should watch his back?TheBigBean said:I think MI6 tweeting about their own brilliance is quite interesting. Presumably there is more than meeets the eye.
Anyway reports the Ukrainian army is setting up for urban warfare in Kyiv. Hold onto your hats.0 -
Sky News have been using an academic who specialised in warfare and he has been showing lots of before and after satellite photos. There was one of a snow covered airfield, that 3 days later had been cleared and was full or military vehicles, and he could identify the type and capability etc.surrey_commuter said:
To get nealy 200,000 troops and their equipment in the right place is an enormous logistical exercise and there is no way of hiding it. From satellites alone I imagine they could have named the regiments involvedrick_chasey said:
He almost certainly has given the quality of the US intelligence. They said this was happening 2 and a half months before it happened, with very accurate troop numbers and information on where and how the attack would happen.TheBigBean said:
I still think this is interesting. Are MI6 publicly telling Putin he has a mole and therefore should watch his back?TheBigBean said:I think MI6 tweeting about their own brilliance is quite interesting. Presumably there is more than meeets the eye.
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It is fitting that the this is staying in the Putin thread, because, remarkably, this is really all about him.0
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and is "some independence" worth hundreds of thousands of lives and destrcution of much of the country?ugo.santalucia said:
I disagree.surrey_commuter said:
A I say above in many ways they would do better not fighting a war they can not win.
Surrendering would have a different outcome to fighting to the last man... the longer the war goes on, the worse it will be for Russia and the better Ukraine will get out of it in the long run. If they give up now, they will be incorporated into Russia and within 20 years the maps will be rewritten. If they don't, there is a good chance that some kind of agreement will be reached, whereby they will retain some independence.
it is kind of a rhetorical question0 -
The two are so different that I am not convinced that you can do a comparison.TheBigBean said:
If the Taliban managed to defeat the US (and allies), I think Ukraine stand a decent chance with Russia.surrey_commuter said:
Military history fascinates me and have read and watched rather too much over the years but I would say that your comparison is completely wrong. It sounds glib to say that your family ending up in a war zone is a thousand times worse but the two are really not comparable. One is rockets and shells raining down on buildings randomly killing families and the other is staying indoors watching Netflix.Pross said:
Poor wording on my part no doubt. I'm not suggesting it is anything like the same thing but I think those initial stages of the pandemic where people were quite panicky and we had queues for food and impact on our daily lives are, fortunately, the closest we've been to being in a country at war in my lifetime (as I said, without the daily risk to your property). I don't think many of us coped very well so when that is multiplied by however many times as it is in a war zone it always surpises me how resilient many of the people are.surrey_commuter said:
Apologies if I missed it but what happened to you 2 years ago?Pross said:
Yep, I think 2 years ago we got the closest (I hope) we'll ever get to discovering how we'd cope in a war situation albeit without our homes under constant threat of destruction and I don't think it reflected very well. You see these people being interviewed on TV who have already lost everything once fleeing places like Donetsk and are now having to go through it again.focuszing723 said:
Well on the plus side, we might not be at the bottom anymore for stupidly weakening the EU.Pross said:I'm guessing they won't get their usual high marks from the Ukrainian jury (or some others in the area).
Although I can be flippant (because it's crazy to comprehend), I do have real empathy for all the people involved who just want to get on with their lives and make the best of it.
No doubt many in our country will be opposed to us providing them with refuge though and will label them as scroungers looking for an easy life on benefits.
I know they don't have much choice and in many war zones have had hardship all their lives (less so in Ukraine I suspect) but when you think about how people talk about the impact on mental health the pandemic had I just don't know how these people get through each day.
I work with a Lithuanian and she is more worried about the impact of a Russian invasion on her family than she ever was about Covid. Imagine what that is like for a Ukranian.
A I say above in many ways they would do better not fighting a war they can not win.
As we never hear about Iraq I assume everything is reasonably calm there now0 -
SC, I don't want to go all boomery on you, but history would suggest that, for a lot of people yes, the fight is worth it.surrey_commuter said:
and is "some independence" worth hundreds of thousands of lives and destrcution of much of the country?ugo.santalucia said:
I disagree.surrey_commuter said:
A I say above in many ways they would do better not fighting a war they can not win.
Surrendering would have a different outcome to fighting to the last man... the longer the war goes on, the worse it will be for Russia and the better Ukraine will get out of it in the long run. If they give up now, they will be incorporated into Russia and within 20 years the maps will be rewritten. If they don't, there is a good chance that some kind of agreement will be reached, whereby they will retain some independence.
it is kind of a rhetorical question
Don't want to get particularly flag-waving here but surely the lesson we learned from 80 years ago is that it is worth fighting tyranny?
I'm not gonna judge anyone for fighting or not - I am really in two minds on whether it's worth the fight or not, but anyone who stands up to the Russians gets my upmost respect and support, not that it's worth f*cking anything.1 -
Huge numbers of eastern Europeans have fought for their independence and freedom at least twice in the last 100 years, so yes, they probably do think it is worth the fight.2
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Different terrain plus the Russians are less likely to worry about how what they do is viewed in the rest of the world. I doubt they'll be bothered about rules of engagement. That said Chechnya is probably more comparable and shows what people can do if they are prepared to accept decades of suffering as a price for their independence.TheBigBean said:
If the Taliban managed to defeat the US (and allies), I think Ukraine stand a decent chance with Russia.surrey_commuter said:
Military history fascinates me and have read and watched rather too much over the years but I would say that your comparison is completely wrong. It sounds glib to say that your family ending up in a war zone is a thousand times worse but the two are really not comparable. One is rockets and shells raining down on buildings randomly killing families and the other is staying indoors watching Netflix.Pross said:
Poor wording on my part no doubt. I'm not suggesting it is anything like the same thing but I think those initial stages of the pandemic where people were quite panicky and we had queues for food and impact on our daily lives are, fortunately, the closest we've been to being in a country at war in my lifetime (as I said, without the daily risk to your property). I don't think many of us coped very well so when that is multiplied by however many times as it is in a war zone it always surpises me how resilient many of the people are.surrey_commuter said:
Apologies if I missed it but what happened to you 2 years ago?Pross said:
Yep, I think 2 years ago we got the closest (I hope) we'll ever get to discovering how we'd cope in a war situation albeit without our homes under constant threat of destruction and I don't think it reflected very well. You see these people being interviewed on TV who have already lost everything once fleeing places like Donetsk and are now having to go through it again.focuszing723 said:
Well on the plus side, we might not be at the bottom anymore for stupidly weakening the EU.Pross said:I'm guessing they won't get their usual high marks from the Ukrainian jury (or some others in the area).
Although I can be flippant (because it's crazy to comprehend), I do have real empathy for all the people involved who just want to get on with their lives and make the best of it.
No doubt many in our country will be opposed to us providing them with refuge though and will label them as scroungers looking for an easy life on benefits.
I know they don't have much choice and in many war zones have had hardship all their lives (less so in Ukraine I suspect) but when you think about how people talk about the impact on mental health the pandemic had I just don't know how these people get through each day.
I work with a Lithuanian and she is more worried about the impact of a Russian invasion on her family than she ever was about Covid. Imagine what that is like for a Ukranian.
A I say above in many ways they would do better not fighting a war they can not win.0 -
Second battle of Kiev was pretty savage.Dorset_Boy said:Huge numbers of eastern Europeans have fought for their independence and freedom at least twice in the last 100 years, so yes, they probably do think it is worth the fight.
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I guess it all comes down to how bad life under a Russian puppet would be for people who have had a pretty high level of democracy for the past 30 years. I suppose they could look at Belarus and think "is it worth fighting on to live a similar life to the people there?". Not sure what my answer would be but it would almost certainly be a worse life than they are used to.rick_chasey said:
SC, I don't want to go all boomery on you, but history would suggest that, for a lot of people yes, the fight is worth it.surrey_commuter said:
and is "some independence" worth hundreds of thousands of lives and destrcution of much of the country?ugo.santalucia said:
I disagree.surrey_commuter said:
A I say above in many ways they would do better not fighting a war they can not win.
Surrendering would have a different outcome to fighting to the last man... the longer the war goes on, the worse it will be for Russia and the better Ukraine will get out of it in the long run. If they give up now, they will be incorporated into Russia and within 20 years the maps will be rewritten. If they don't, there is a good chance that some kind of agreement will be reached, whereby they will retain some independence.
it is kind of a rhetorical question
Don't want to get particularly flag-waving here but surely the lesson we learned from 80 years ago is that it is worth fighting tyranny?
I'm not gonna judge anyone for fighting or not - I am really in two minds on whether it's worth the fight or not, but anyone who stands up to the Russians gets my upmost respect and support, not that it's worth f*cking anything.0 -
This place obviously not counting.First.Aspect said:What has mi6 said? Sorry I am not on twatter or anything like that.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
BTW, Kiev is the Russian way of spelling the capital's name.rick_chasey said:
Second battle of Kiev was pretty savage.Dorset_Boy said:Huge numbers of eastern Europeans have fought for their independence and freedom at least twice in the last 100 years, so yes, they probably do think it is worth the fight.
Kyiv is the Ukrainian way.
Perhaps we shouldn't use the former.1 -
Yes I have been for this conflict.
Old habits.
The city was obliterated in that battle. Merciless on both sides.0
