BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

briantrumpet

Surrey Commuter wrote:

this was not done on a whim - it was at least 20 years in the making. They simply must have a plan, don't they? what would they gain from not showing? could they be doing deals behind closed doors? putting the finishing touches to a cross party working committee?

Your faith in Boris and Gove is touching. But if there was a plan, I think it was based on 1) the predictions of the 'experts' not being accurate (whoops!!), and an easy and amicable arrangement with the EU that allowed for free trade with none of the difficult bits (whoops again!!).

I simply can't see the end game for this. Too many variables, and no leaders. Add in a financial system which no-one can really control, and it's sh1t scary.

Lookyhere

What is needed is a new PM who will say the decision to have a vote was wrong and that the vote will not be upheld as it is not in the long term interests of the country.

unfortunately we ve not got any leader who will actually stand up for the UK.

surrey_commuter

briantrumpet wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

this was not done on a whim - it was at least 20 years in the making. They simply must have a plan, don't they? what would they gain from not showing? could they be doing deals behind closed doors? putting the finishing touches to a cross party working committee?

Your faith in Boris and Gove is touching. But if there was a plan, I think it was based on 1) the predictions of the 'experts' not being accurate (whoops!!), and an easy and amicable arrangement with the EU that allowed for free trade with none of the difficult bits (whoops again!!).

I simply can't see the end game for this. Too many variables, and no leaders. Add in a financial system which no-one can really control, and it's sh1t scary.

I see Boris/Gove as window dressing.

In 20 years somebody must have popped over to Brussels and tested the water or ran some scenarios and built plans around that. How could you know you wanted to leave without doing so?

briantrumpet

Surrey Commuter wrote:

In 20 years somebody must have popped over to Brussels and tested the water or ran some scenarios and built plans around that. How could you know you wanted to leave without doing so?

People believe in heaven without ever seeing it, or having a helpline to talk to the legal department...

briantrumpet

Lookyhere wrote:

What is needed is a new PM who will say the decision to have a vote was wrong and that the vote will not be upheld as it is not in the long term interests of the country.

unfortunately we ve not got any leader who will actually stand up for the UK.

We are indeed leaderless at the moment. Boris is in fantasy land, Cameron is saying "Whatever...", and Corbyn is on death row. I start to wonder if there should be some sort of cross-party grand coalition of all the Remainers to sort the mess out. In the meantime...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... act-europe

TheBigBean

I think tactically the UK should not issue the article 50 until everything is agreed. Will be mighty unpopular with the rest of the EU, but will provide lots and lots of time to sort out various other trade deals.

briantrumpet

TheBigBean wrote:

I think tactically the UK should not issue the article 50 until everything is agreed. Will be mighty unpopular with the rest of the EU, but will provide lots and lots of time to sort out various other trade deals.

Unfortunately the EU is saying no negotiation until Article 50 is triggered. So that's the first obstacle to overcome... who'd have guessed they'd not make it easy for us?

orraloon

Satire is dead.

http://indy100.independent.co.uk/articl ... bJFSzhkyrW

Daily Hate columnist Sarah Vine is married to Michael Gove, he of the sneering quote which will follow him to his grave, 'people in this country have had enough of experts'.

Now she wants us all to hold hands together and offer advice and expertise.

Couldn't make this xxxx up.

bendertherobot

3 weeks until half term. 3 weeks until many people have to buy their travel money. That's going to be an interesting time.

florerider

TheBigBean wrote:

I think tactically the UK should not issue the article 50 until everything is agreed. Will be mighty unpopular with the rest of the EU, but will provide lots and lots of time to sort out various other trade deals.

Tactically I agree, but the process does not start until the notice is issued.

Help him. Help who? The bombadier. I am the bombadier.

TheBigBean

briantrumpet wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

I think tactically the UK should not issue the article 50 until everything is agreed. Will be mighty unpopular with the rest of the EU, but will provide lots and lots of time to sort out various other trade deals.

Unfortunately the EU is saying no negotiation until Article 50 is triggered. So that's the first obstacle to overcome... who'd have guessed they'd not make it easy for us?

Precisely. Hence years to talk to other countries. EU will eventually change its mind. I'm not saying this route will be popular.

briantrumpet

orraloon wrote:

Satire is dead.

Boris, today:

"It is clear now that project fear is over, there is not going to be an emergency Budget, people’s pensions are safe, the pound is stable, markets are stable. I think that is all very good news.”

briantrumpet

TheBigBean wrote:

Precisely. Hence years to talk to other countries. EU will eventually change its mind. I'm not saying this route will be popular.

And we'll end up pretty much where we began, if Boris's witterings are anything to go by. I think he is utterly deluded about the extent to which his intellect and 'charm' will persuade the EU to roll over.

Jez mon

TheBigBean wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

I think tactically the UK should not issue the article 50 until everything is agreed. Will be mighty unpopular with the rest of the EU, but will provide lots and lots of time to sort out various other trade deals.

Unfortunately the EU is saying no negotiation until Article 50 is triggered. So that's the first obstacle to overcome... who'd have guessed they'd not make it easy for us?

Precisely. Hence years to talk to other countries. EU will eventually change its mind. I'm not saying this route will be popular.

Wasn't one of the big leave arguments that we can't negotiate trade deals as a single country whilst part of the Eu. Until A50 is triggered, we are full members of the EU.

Besides, from what various people have claimed we simply don't have the civil service man power to go making a boatload of trade deals.

pblakeney

My analogy of the status of the Country. We are on the Titanic after the iceberg has been hit.
The captain has abandoned and we are looking for a new captain to go down with the ship.

bramstoker

Jez mon wrote:

Besides, from what various people have claimed we simply don't have the civil service man power to go making a boatload of trade deals.

Well theres the first benefit to leaving, we are creating jobs. Wonder what that comes under at the job centre .

bendertherobot

We have loads of civil servants. And they can be deployed in all areas fairly rapidly. The trade agreements aren't hard per se. But the detail will be staggering. Also, doesn't matter how many we have, all the headline stuff will need to be done by a few. There's quite a lot of opportunity here for all sorts of civil servants to do a very good job and advance. Problem being, once this is all done, and we stop having to implement that "65%" of EU law, they might be twiddling their thumbs

4kicks

TheBigBean wrote:

I think tactically the UK should not issue the article 50 until everything is agreed. Will be mighty unpopular with the rest of the EU, but will provide lots and lots of time to sort out various other trade deals.

If Im another trading nation (to whom, btw, the UK is small chips) Im saying "once you get the EU sorted come back & talk to us". Also, tactically, its not a good idea to seriously p**s off the other EU nations by dragging your feet getting to the negotiating table. More importantly its hard to see UK companies getting much new European business until it is sorted. I think the issue UK has placed itself in is not that it wont negotiate right now, but it CANT as its got no leadership. Except Boris, whos solution was to tell the EU that actually he didnt really want to exit the EU, just get only the good stuff.
I wonder if Farage, as an ex trader, shorted Sterling. I know I did.

4kicks

PBlakeney wrote:

My analogy of the status of the Country. We are on the Titanic after the iceberg has been hit.
The captain has abandoned and we are looking for a new captain to go down with the ship.

Actually we are trying to decide the seating arrangements at dinner.

briantrumpet

briantrumpet wrote:

orraloon wrote:

Satire is dead.

Boris, today:

"It is clear now that project fear is over, there is not going to be an emergency Budget, people’s pensions are safe, the pound is stable, markets are stable. I think that is all very good news.”

Ho hum, another day, more news ... why should we be fearful?

Well, apart from being downgraded to AA rating, and....

John Llewellyn, founder of Llewellyn consulting and a former chief economist of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, said the UK was heading into recession at a time when its economy was not fixed and the BoE appeared to be the only functioning authority.

“We are more worried — for the UK, though importantly not for the world — than we were in 2008 or any other post-World War Two crisis,” he said. “The scale of all this will start to unfold in coming weeks.”

Maybe Boris simply meant that the 'Project' bit is now redundant. It's just Fear.

sungod

they're in excellent form over at b3ta

4kicks

briantrumpet wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

orraloon wrote:

Satire is dead.

Boris, today:

"It is clear now that project fear is over, there is not going to be an emergency Budget, people’s pensions are safe, the pound is stable, markets are stable. I think that is all very good news.”

Ho hum, another day, more news ... why should we be fearful?

Well, apart from being downgraded to AA rating, and....

John Llewellyn, founder of Llewellyn consulting and a former chief economist of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, said the UK was heading into recession at a time when its economy was not fixed and the BoE appeared to be the only functioning authority.

“We are more worried — for the UK, though importantly not for the world — than we were in 2008 or any other post-World War Two crisis,” he said. “The scale of all this will start to unfold in coming weeks.”

Maybe Boris simply meant that the 'Project' bit is now redundant. It's just Fear.

RBS down 15% . Pound to dollar down 10%. In a day. I think we should have a second referendum asking if Boris Johnson needs to be be sectioned under the mental health act.

bendertherobot

It's interesting. Governments often trade democracy off against economics (etc). Yet here the Government offers nothing to those affected by the democratic vote. Blindly following the majority in a referendum based on fluff at the expense of business, economies and real people.

I've actually gone past numb and am now at the "as long as I get a decent ish euro exchange for my holiday in a few weeks I'll stop reading the news now."

briantrumpet

bendertherobot wrote:

I've actually gone past numb and am now at the "as long as I get a decent ish euro exchange for my holiday in a few weeks I'll stop reading the news now."

When I went to bed on Thursday night, my decision to stick a decent wodge of euros in my French a/c at 1.26 seemed a poor choice (the £ was at 1.32 and rising, before the Sunderland result). It's now 1.19. So I'm not feeling too bad about my choice now...

briantrumpet

Here's what the skeleton Leave campaign website says:

“It’s because of everyone involved, all across the country, that we achieved this magnificent result. This is your victory”.

If this is a magnificent result, what does a terrible one look like?

Pross

The Welsh Goverment are saying replacing the Structural Funding and agricultural subsidies has to be a priority for spending the money saved on EU membership. Um, no - the people in these areas (which includes me) need to take the consequences of their actions.

Pross

Anyone see the Labour and Conservative parties splitting over this leaving a choice of 6 nation wide parties and the nationalist parties to choose from in future elections (and therefore coalition governments)?

bobmcstuff

Pross wrote:

Anyone see the Labour and Conservative parties splitting over this leaving a choice of 6 nation wide parties and the nationalist parties to choose from in future elections (and therefore coalition governments)?

Something's got to give.

I think we need a general election, and urgently, just so we have some leadership in place which actually has a mandate to govern in this situation - and more importantly a plan (as the GE campaign would be focused on plans for the negotiations).

florerider

Pross wrote:

The Welsh Goverment are saying replacing the Structural Funding and agricultural subsidies has to be a priority for spending the money saved on EU membership. Um, no - the people in these areas (which includes me) need to take the consequences of their actions.

Must admit, that one did come as a surprise, especially Rhonda Cynon Taff and Merthyr Tydfill. One big unfinished road out there unless a lot is built in 2 years. The farming areas were a surprise too, given the direct support and lack of understanding how the metropolitan elite in Westminster is likely to carve up future budgets. I see from the Beeb the AMs are pondering the same question.

Over the whole country the surprise is that the deprived regions who were large scale net gainers voted out and yet the net contributors, particularly London and the SE, voted in.

4kicks

bobmcstuff wrote:

Pross wrote:

Anyone see the Labour and Conservative parties splitting over this leaving a choice of 6 nation wide parties and the nationalist parties to choose from in future elections (and therefore coalition governments)?

Something's got to give.

I think we need a general election, and urgently, just so we have some leadership in place which actually has a mandate to govern in this situation - and more importantly a plan (as the GE campaign would be focused on plans for the negotiations).

Actually we may end up with a "Libdem" (/remain) and a "nationalist" party....
Agree that a General election is needed. However, and perhaps this is just me adding further fuel to a raging carfire, what happens if that election ends up with a government with a manifesto against Brexit?