BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    What is your opinion of the backsliding on promises about the weekly £350m to the NHS and no control of immigration plus the complete lack of any planning?

    I have always been of the opinion that the £350 mill to the NHS was a lie, and every Leave rep said as much when challenged in debate, but they refused to accept that the £350 mill gross was untrue and never took it off the bus. The only people in a position to plan for Brexit were the government, Leave could only ever present their views on how gov't could proceed. George Osborne presented a plan for Brexit that was also a lie, and weakened his cause in doing so - and contributed to panic in the markets by always presenting the most pessimistic picture of Brexit.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    mrfpb wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    What is your opinion of the backsliding on promises about the weekly £350m to the NHS and no control of immigration plus the complete lack of any planning?

    I have always been of the opinion that the £350 mill to the NHS was a lie, and every Leave rep said as much when challenged in debate, but they refused to accept that the £350 mill gross was untrue and never took it off the bus. The only people in a position to plan for Brexit were the government, Leave could only ever present their views on how gov't could proceed. George Osborne presented a plan for Brexit that was also a lie, and weakened his cause in doing so - and contributed to panic in the markets by always presenting the most pessimistic picture of Brexit.

    George Osborne presented a plan that way underestimated the damage to our economy.

    Currently there is no foreign investment coming in, our balance of trade deficit is compensated by foreign investment. Whilst the deficit could get better with a weaker pound and higher unemployment in the short-term the actual deficit across both of these measures will increase and so add to our overall budget deficit, borrowings and of course those borrowings will cost us more because our credit rating will go south.

    Add this to companies moving their offices out of the country, less jobs, less taxation revenue.

    All in all an utter disaster.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Joelsim wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    mrfpb wrote:
    The Welsh assembly was created on the basis of a 51% yes vote on a 50% turnout, so the precedent has been set. The 1977 devo vote in Wales failed as the winning yes majority did not meet the 50% of population rule for that vote. Cameron chose the rules for this one, so the Remain side have shaky grounds for a re-run.

    However as Camron broke two key promises within a few hour of losing - to stay on as PM and to invoke Article 50 immediately, then who knows what he'll do next.

    I for one am arguing he was a mug for structuring it the way he did. I am not arguing (or signing petitions) for a re-run.

    Cameron had to go he was a lame duck and in no position to negotiate our exit. Not invoking Art50 is probably the best decision made... though if I was a Brexiteer I would worry more as each day passed.

    Anyway that is all in the past. What is your opinion of the backsliding on promises about the weekly £350m to the NHS and no control of immigration plus the complete lack of any planning?

    Surely it was pretty obvious that those promises were pie in the sky anyway weren't they?

    the £350m was obviously a lie but I figured they had a goal and a plan for how to get there. even if it was leave EU and do a trade deal that allows us to control migration... that leaves us WTO as a basis so what leverage do we have to make it better and in particular protect the financial services industry.
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    Osborne has hidden away for three days and now comes out backtrack on his pre-vote assessment of Brexit in order to restore confidence in the UK economy that he did his best to undermine pre-vote.

    The FTSE doesn't seem to have suffered much going by this graph from today:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business/mark ... _month.stm

    Companies are not yet moving their offices out of the country - they are making contingency plans that will depend on how Europe reacts and the progress of talks. Some are moving some jobs out of the country. They will not move wholesale to be in the EU if Netherlands and France push for membership referendums and the EU starts to look like a lost cause.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    mrfpb wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    What is your opinion of the backsliding on promises about the weekly £350m to the NHS and no control of immigration plus the complete lack of any planning?

    I have always been of the opinion that the £350 mill to the NHS was a lie, and every Leave rep said as much when challenged in debate, but they refused to accept that the £350 mill gross was untrue and never took it off the bus. The only people in a position to plan for Brexit were the government, Leave could only ever present their views on how gov't could proceed. George Osborne presented a plan for Brexit that was also a lie, and weakened his cause in doing so - and contributed to panic in the markets by always presenting the most pessimistic picture of Brexit.

    How could the Govt plan for Brexit? I imagine they did put in what measures they could to calm the markets and in due course we will find out what they were and what it has cost us. After that it had to be down to the Brexit leaders to hand over their masterplan for when they wanted to invoke A50, what their primary goals they wanted to achieve in negotiations and here is our negotiating team. On a scale of 1-10 how letdown do you feel?

    The markets are reacting to us leaving the EU - strangely they think it will be bad for our economy
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,445
    Joelsim wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    bradsbeard wrote:
    I wonder Cameron resigning he leaves a door adjar for a general election. Even by October they'll be an idea of badly or how well it's going to go.

    Said election takes place next spring when we'll be seeing what real fallout there is. All 3 parties then run saying they will not evoke the article 50 due the sh!tstorm created. The people get the hump but what will have seen what a mess the referendum has created and swallow it. Lets be fair a lot of people who voted in the EU referendum do not vote in general elections.

    Of course as with everything it's a who knows what will happen.

    we don't have a plan - how on earth could this be going well by October. The EU will not want this crap dragging on so will have forced us to invoke A50 way before next Spring.

    Before anybody asks I don't know how they can force us but a lot of experts seem to think they can so I will report back when I have figured it out.

    The EU don't legally have the ability to force us to invoke Article 50.

    They can't force it directly but they can make it untenable not to, if they really want.

    We have to wait until we have a proper government in place as otherwise we'll waste the first quarter of the 2 year period by bickering internally about who's in charge.

    It will be interesting if there is a GE before then, as I see the Lib Dems are already saying they won't go through with Article 50. They obviously won't get a majority but they could get a lot of votes that way.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,740
    Can I just say that I see zero interest in a referendum in The Netherlands, it's purely a UK Media driven story.

    Leaving the EU could be counted as Gert Wilders, furthest left, lease racist, most realistic aim. He's not a Dutch Farage, he's a Dutch Nick Griffin
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,445
    ddraver wrote:
    Can I just say that I see zero interest in a referendum in The Netherlands, it's purely a UK Media driven story.

    Leaving the EU could be counted as Gert Wilders, furthest left, lease racist, most realistic aim. He's not a Dutch Farage, he's a Dutch Nick Griffin

    Really? I was in The Hague for the week before last, the Dutch guys I was speaking to seemed to think there was some interest (nobody I spoke to seemed keen on a... erm... Nexit? though. Although the guys I was with would be core Remain demographic in the UK so that's not really surprising).
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    ddraver wrote:
    Can I just say that I see zero interest in a referendum in The Netherlands, it's purely a UK Media driven story.

    Oh, there is definitely interest from the Dutch I have engaged with elsewhere
    From A Dutchman wrote:
    majority of the people here just have no idea what you guys just escaped from, it is like a horror story with a very happy end
    Anyway I wish you luck in the coming fury they will sent upon you
    Maybe you lose some money but at least you have a country that is independant and free, principals costs some but are more then worth it in the end
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,079
    Joelsim wrote:

    Currently there is no foreign investment coming in, our balance of trade deficit is compensated by foreign investment. Whilst the deficit could get better with a weaker pound and higher unemployment in the short-term the actual deficit across both of these measures will increase and so add to our overall budget deficit, borrowings and of course those borrowings will cost us more because our credit rating will go south.

    As 10 year gilt rates hit an all time low. Government borrowing costs are a function of the expected interest rates set by the bank of England. Expectation that rates will be lower implies lower long term borrowing costs. Rating agencies are things people relied on before 2008.
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    How could the Govt plan for Brexit?

    How could they not?

    When the 2010 GE looked like it would result in a hung parliament, the civil service let it be known they were drawing up plans for supporting negotiations with every different permutation of coalition they could think of. They did this to help steady and reduce the inevitable market jitters. This referendum had only two possible outcomes, so where was the pre-planning and the assurances that the markets needed. All we got from Gov't was a promise to invoke Article 50 immediately and plans for a "punishment" emergency budget. Both have been abandoned in 72 hrs - though the budget was dead in the water the day it was announced.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,740
    ^^Did he have bleached blonde hair too?

    The dutch arent going anywhere.
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • bompington
    bompington Posts: 7,674
    ddraver wrote:
    The dutch arent going anywhere.
    probably not, but opinion polls say nearly 50% want a referendum
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,740
    bompington wrote:
    ddraver wrote:
    The dutch arent going anywhere.
    probably not, but opinion polls say nearly 50% want a referendum

    Well I'd say we ve just f**ked their chances... :wink:
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    ddraver wrote:
    Can I just say that I see zero interest in a referendum in The Netherlands, it's purely a UK Media driven story.

    Oh, there is definitely interest from the Dutch I have engaged with elsewhere
    From A Dutchman wrote:
    majority of the people here just have no idea what you guys just escaped from, it is like a horror story with a very happy end
    Anyway I wish you luck in the coming fury they will sent upon you
    Maybe you lose some money but at least you have a country that is independant and free, principals costs some but are more then worth it in the end

    Can somebody put up a credible source for Dutch/French referendums and the imminent collapse of the EU... if not then it has no bearing on our Brexit strategy (when we get one)

    I am glad you have found a Dutchman with a trust fund large enough that he does not have to worry about the cost of anything
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    ddraver wrote:
    bompington wrote:
    ddraver wrote:
    The dutch arent going anywhere.
    probably not, but opinion polls say nearly 50% want a referendum

    Well I'd say we ve just f**ked their chances... :wink:

    Which demonstrates just how anti-democratic the EU is by not allowing the people to valid it or not. It's approach is encouraging right wing parties to bubble up as it is the only way that people get their voice heard on the EU.

    And I have no connection to the person I quoted except we play the same large online game. I have no idea of his age, hair colour or anything else
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,686
    I'm depressed. Both the Government and the leave campaign have got us into this mess and neither have planned for it happening. Meantime I'm watching the shares in many of my company's biggest clients fall through the floor which suggests those in the know aren't expecting lots of development in the months ahead. I'm getting fearful and no-one seems to have a clue what to do next. If we're leaving then someone needs to start putting forward realistic and deliverable solutions soon to provide at least a bit of confidence.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    mrfpb wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    How could the Govt plan for Brexit?

    How could they not?

    When the 2010 GE looked like it would result in a hung parliament, the civil service let it be known they were drawing up plans for supporting negotiations with every different permutation of coalition they could think of. They did this to help steady and reduce the inevitable market jitters. This referendum had only two possible outcomes, so where was the pre-planning and the assurances that the markets needed. All we got from Gov't was a promise to invoke Article 50 immediately and plans for a "punishment" emergency budget. Both have been abandoned in 72 hrs - though the budget was dead in the water the day it was announced.

    I meant specifically what should they have done? and how do you know they are not quietly buying pounds and providing liquidity to banks? it is like poker, they would be mad to show their hand. Always remember the markets have far ore clout than the Govt or central bank.

    And let's move away from market jitters to market sentiment
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    ddraver wrote:
    Can I just say that I see zero interest in a referendum in The Netherlands, it's purely a UK Media driven story.

    Oh, there is definitely interest from the Dutch I have engaged with elsewhere
    From A Dutchman wrote:
    majority of the people here just have no idea what you guys just escaped from, it is like a horror story with a very happy end
    Anyway I wish you luck in the coming fury they will sent upon you
    Maybe you lose some money but at least you have a country that is independant and free, principals costs some but are more then worth it in the end

    Can somebody put up a credible source for Dutch/French referendums and the imminent collapse of the EU... if not then it has no bearing on our Brexit strategy (when we get one)

    I am glad you have found a Dutchman with a trust fund large enough that he does not have to worry about the cost of anything

    You have not learnt anything over this process have you?

    Dismissing those who do not agree with you just brings out a surprise result when they finally get their say.

    And again you act with a snide, dismissive attitude rather than listening. How very EU your approach is :roll:
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    ddraver wrote:
    bompington wrote:
    ddraver wrote:
    The dutch arent going anywhere.
    probably not, but opinion polls say nearly 50% want a referendum

    Well I'd say we ve just f**ked their chances... :wink:

    Which demonstrates just how anti-democratic the EU is by not allowing the people to valid it or not. It's approach is encouraging right wing parties to bubble up as it is the only way that people get their voice heard on the EU.

    it is almost like the last 3 months has not happened :shock: surely we can all agree that a member of the EU can call a referendum on it's future membership and can leave the EU if it so wishes.

    And I have no connection to the person I quoted except we play the same large online game. I have no idea of his age, hair colour or anything else

    You are basing your opinion of Dutch politics on some chap you met playing role playig games online - and then passing it off as informed opinion. I know Gove said we have had enough of experts but that is beyond ridiculous.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,740
    ...take a day off Coop, everyone else is...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    ddraver wrote:
    Can I just say that I see zero interest in a referendum in The Netherlands, it's purely a UK Media driven story.

    Oh, there is definitely interest from the Dutch I have engaged with elsewhere
    From A Dutchman wrote:
    majority of the people here just have no idea what you guys just escaped from, it is like a horror story with a very happy end
    Anyway I wish you luck in the coming fury they will sent upon you
    Maybe you lose some money but at least you have a country that is independant and free, principals costs some but are more then worth it in the end

    Can somebody put up a credible source for Dutch/French referendums and the imminent collapse of the EU... if not then it has no bearing on our Brexit strategy (when we get one)

    I am glad you have found a Dutchman with a trust fund large enough that he does not have to worry about the cost of anything

    You have not learnt anything over this process have you?

    Dismissing those who do not agree with you just brings out a surprise result when they finally get their say.

    And again you act with a snide, dismissive attitude rather than listening. How very EU your approach is :roll:

    The pound is pretty much at its lowest ever level against the dollar.

    My snide, dismissive attitude is simply because you appear to have no clue what you have voted for. Everything that was predicted by the 'experts' is actually happening, and do you know who's going to lose out the most? Everyone.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,740
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    You are basing your opinion of Dutch politics on some chap you met playing role playig games online - and then passing it off as informed opinion. I know Gove said we have had enough of experts but that is beyond ridiculous.

    an informed one - http://www.dutchnews.nl/news/archives/2 ... t-a-nexit/

    Dangerously close to an expert though so...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    ddraver wrote:
    Can I just say that I see zero interest in a referendum in The Netherlands, it's purely a UK Media driven story.

    Oh, there is definitely interest from the Dutch I have engaged with elsewhere
    From A Dutchman wrote:
    majority of the people here just have no idea what you guys just escaped from, it is like a horror story with a very happy end
    Anyway I wish you luck in the coming fury they will sent upon you
    Maybe you lose some money but at least you have a country that is independant and free, principals costs some but are more then worth it in the end

    Can somebody put up a credible source for Dutch/French referendums and the imminent collapse of the EU... if not then it has no bearing on our Brexit strategy (when we get one)

    I am glad you have found a Dutchman with a trust fund large enough that he does not have to worry about the cost of anything

    You have not learnt anything over this process have you?

    Dismissing those who do not agree with you just brings out a surprise result when they finally get their say.

    And again you act with a snide, dismissive attitude rather than listening. How very EU your approach is :roll:

    People on here quote academic papers, original research and quality newspapers. You have formed an opinion on the Dutch electorate based on a sample size of one. I stand by my dismissive attitude and would argue it was not snide.
  • Bobbinogs
    Bobbinogs Posts: 4,841
    Joelsim wrote:
    ... Everything that was predicted by the 'experts' is actually happening...

    I wouldn't say that. There is some market volatility but that could be attributed (in no small part) to DC resigning without sorting anything out.

    I said before the vote that DC, as PM, should never have led the Remain campaign as it effectively put everything on the one horse whereas the country needed a strong leader whatever the outcome.

    I can see things settling down when we get the Art 50 issue sorted, a PM announced and a decent opposition in place rather than running around trying to get their resignations in via Twitter.
  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 4,023
    Guys, it's time to put replying to Cooper on the shelf, it's was painfully clear well before the vote he's in world of his own. He was trying to tell me how a company I've spent 15 years working at operates and is utterly clueless.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,740
    For all that, Junker needs to wind his neck in (at least). A replacement President with a less utopian vision of Europe would be a good move for the EU moving on
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • Bo Duke
    Bo Duke Posts: 1,058
    I think it very important to have a strong opposition - 2 strong parties are better than one.

    Who are they likely to choose to replace Michael Foot's dad?

    Hillary Benn impresses, but does his dad lurk inside?
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,603
    Bo Duke wrote:
    I think it very important to have a strong opposition - 2 strong parties are better than one.

    Who are they likely to choose to replace Michael Foot's dad?

    Hillary Benn impresses, but does his dad lurk inside?
    I wish. Tony Benn was a man of principle even if you did not agree with him.
    Hillary is just like the rest these days, looking out for number one.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    mrfpb wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    How could the Govt plan for Brexit?

    How could they not?

    When the 2010 GE looked like it would result in a hung parliament, the civil service let it be known they were drawing up plans for supporting negotiations with every different permutation of coalition they could think of. They did this to help steady and reduce the inevitable market jitters. This referendum had only two possible outcomes, so where was the pre-planning and the assurances that the markets needed. All we got from Gov't was a promise to invoke Article 50 immediately and plans for a "punishment" emergency budget. Both have been abandoned in 72 hrs - though the budget was dead in the water the day it was announced.

    I meant specifically what should they have done? and how do you know they are not quietly buying pounds and providing liquidity to banks? it is like poker, they would be mad to show their hand. Always remember the markets have far ore clout than the Govt or central bank.

    And let's move away from market jitters to market sentiment

    Lets make another comparison. In 1975 Heath offered the country a vote on EEC membership. Everyone knew his views as he spent 10 years ten years trying to get us in. However he stepped back form the debate and said that as pm he would be ready to do the countries will. This at least gave the wider community a sense that a pragmatic statesman was at the helm.

    Cameron chose instead to take a side and put out worst case scenario stories about Brexit, which would only cause more instability in the event of an exit vote. Osborne did the same. They should have been able to give a message that they would pursue continuity and stability even if they would not share all the details. They should have, for example, been able to talk about a negotiation process that they would actually be willing to stick to if the vote went against them.

    Only one side of this debate actually had responsibility for governing this country on June 24th and they let us down big time.

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