BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Dorset Boy wrote:Joel - I voted to remain but knew it was likely to be close. However I don't buy into the doomsday scenario that was put across pre-vote by Boy George which clearly you have done.
It is essential in a democracy to respect the will of the people and that other hold different views to others. the sooner more remember this the sooner we can start to move forward.
It wasn't Gideon that I listened to, that was way after I'd gathered my thoughts and made my choice.
EDIT: I will add that when he said what he said it was very much in line with my thoughts although to a lesser degree of financial meltdown than I envisaged. His statement this morning seems to suggest that he still believes that too.0 -
Can I suggest a diversion to stop us going round in ever angrier circles
What do we think would be best for Scotland economically - for the sake of argument let's assume both options are achievable with wave of a magic wand
1) Stay in the UK
2) Leave the UK and inherit our current EU membership so keeping all the opt-outs0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Can I suggest a diversion to stop us going round in ever angrier circles
What do we think would be best for Scotland economically - for the sake of argument let's assume both options are achievable with wave of a magic wand
1) Stay in the UK
2) Leave the UK and inherit our current EU membership so keeping all the opt-outs
I think it could be 2) if companies relocating from England go up to Scotland rather than mainland Europe. (Assuming that the new England/EU deal is poor)You live and learn. At any rate, you live0 -
I always thought the risks of brexit where over blown but one which was not mentioned much. the constitutional settlement in the U.K between the 4 nations is unstable. A commons report recently said as much this referendum result has made it more so and unless the government take this seriously we could loose two of the 4 nations in the union in the next few years. That to me would a consequence too far and quite unforgivable of brexit voters many of which don't even see the risk and call it scaremongering. It would be unforgivable as it is entirely predictable. It is also avoidable but the english have got to stop trying to wreck the union and english politics over the last 10 years has done exactly that.
currently if I was a scot or lived there I would want Scotland to go independent as I think remaining in the u.k is risky.http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Can I suggest a diversion to stop us going round in ever angrier circles
What do we think would be best for Scotland economically - for the sake of argument let's assume both options are achievable with wave of a magic wand
1) Stay in the UK
2) Leave the UK and inherit our current EU membership so keeping all the opt-outs
Hard to say, it's a rock and a hard place isn't it for them.
They obviously do fairly well out of being in the UK, but one idea might be if the UK's financial service sector is badly affected (taking a chunk of GDP with it, meaning less money in the UK to support Scotland) they may be better off leaving the UK and sticking in the EU and trying to get some of the banks to set up in Edinburgh as their gateway to the EU and UK (bearing in mind they already have a comparatively decent financial service sector). On the other hand, they will be rather small and isolated in Europe.
I have a strong feeling that they will vote to leave if there is another referendum, regardless of the economic predictions either way - the electorate wants to stay in the EU by a large majority.0 -
Joelsim wrote:Dorset Boy wrote:Joel - I voted to remain but knew it was likely to be close. However I don't buy into the doomsday scenario that was put across pre-vote by Boy George which clearly you have done.
It is essential in a democracy to respect the will of the people and that other hold different views to others. the sooner more remember this the sooner we can start to move forward.
It wasn't Gideon that I listened to, that was way after I'd gathered my thoughts and made my choice.
EDIT: I will add that when he said what he said it was very much in line with my thoughts although to a lesser degree of financial meltdown than I envisaged. His statement this morning seems to suggest that he still believes that too.
I think his numbers are plausible... the timeframe not.0 -
thecycleclinic wrote:I always thought the risks of brexit where over blown but one which was not mentioned much. the constitutional settlement in the U.K between the 4 nations is unstable. A commons report recently said as much this referendum result has made it more so and unless the government take this seriously we could loose two of the 4 nations in the union in the next few years. That to me would a consequence too far and quite unforgivable of brexit voters many of which don't even see the risk and call it scaremongering. It would be unforgivable as it is entirely predictable. It is also avoidable but the english have got to stop trying to wreck the union and english politics over the last 10 years has done exactly that.
currently if I was a scot or lived there I would want Scotland to go independent as I think remaining in the u.k is risky.
Agree.
If the UK do activate Article 50 then if I was a Scot I would vote for independence. England will be in for an extremely tough time economically and socially (the latter will happen either way now).0 -
bobmcstuff wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Can I suggest a diversion to stop us going round in ever angrier circles
What do we think would be best for Scotland economically - for the sake of argument let's assume both options are achievable with wave of a magic wand
1) Stay in the UK
2) Leave the UK and inherit our current EU membership so keeping all the opt-outs
Hard to say, it's a rock and a hard place isn't it for them.
They obviously do fairly well out of being in the UK, but one idea might be if the UK's financial service sector is badly affected (taking a chunk of GDP with it, meaning less money in the UK to support Scotland) they may be better off leaving the UK and sticking in the EU and trying to get some of the banks to set up in Edinburgh as their gateway to the EU and UK (bearing in mind they already have a comparatively decent financial service sector). On the other hand, they will be rather small and isolated in Europe.
I have a strong feeling that they will vote to leave if there is another referendum, regardless of the economic predictions either way - the electorate wants to stay in the EU by a large majority.
They do 3 times as much trade with the UK as they do the rest of the world0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Can I suggest a diversion to stop us going round in ever angrier circles
What do we think would be best for Scotland economically - for the sake of argument let's assume both options are achievable with wave of a magic wand
1) Stay in the UK
2) Leave the UK and inherit our current EU membership so keeping all the opt-outs
Ive not seen it anywhere that the EU actually want Scotland in, and even if they do would they qualify under the EU terms or would they just "fudge" it like they have before? If they did do that could Scotland turn into another Greece but without the sun. The danger also is that should we be the first brick to be removed a crumbling wall, the Scots would be joining a failing institution.A feather is kinky, a whole chicken is just perverse.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:bobmcstuff wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Can I suggest a diversion to stop us going round in ever angrier circles
What do we think would be best for Scotland economically - for the sake of argument let's assume both options are achievable with wave of a magic wand
1) Stay in the UK
2) Leave the UK and inherit our current EU membership so keeping all the opt-outs
Hard to say, it's a rock and a hard place isn't it for them.
They obviously do fairly well out of being in the UK, but one idea might be if the UK's financial service sector is badly affected (taking a chunk of GDP with it, meaning less money in the UK to support Scotland) they may be better off leaving the UK and sticking in the EU and trying to get some of the banks to set up in Edinburgh as their gateway to the EU and UK (bearing in mind they already have a comparatively decent financial service sector). On the other hand, they will be rather small and isolated in Europe.
I have a strong feeling that they will vote to leave if there is another referendum, regardless of the economic predictions either way - the electorate wants to stay in the EU by a large majority.
They do 3 times as much trade with the UK as they do the rest of the world
I don't think that argument would hold enough weight with voters - similar arguments didn't work on English voters, after all.
The Scottish voted to remain in the EU by a margin of 62 to 38, let's not forget they only voted to remain in the UK by a margin of 55 to 45.0 -
bramstoker wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Can I suggest a diversion to stop us going round in ever angrier circles
What do we think would be best for Scotland economically - for the sake of argument let's assume both options are achievable with wave of a magic wand
1) Stay in the UK
2) Leave the UK and inherit our current EU membership so keeping all the opt-outs
Ive not seen it anywhere that the EU actually want Scotland in, and even if they do would they qualify under the EU terms or would they just "fudge" it like they have before? If they did do that could Scotland turn into another Greece but without the sun. The danger also is that should we be the first brick to be removed a crumbling wall, the Scots would be joining a failing institution.
Maybe I should have highlighted the "magic wand" aspect that means it is achievable and keep the op-outs which obviously include no Euro membership.
So that leaves a fear they would be joining a failing institution. Without wishing to go off nobody has posted a credible source on which to base that supposition. But if it it did happen the EU would probably contract into a code of core of wealthy North european countries of which Scotland would be one0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:bramstoker wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Can I suggest a diversion to stop us going round in ever angrier circles
What do we think would be best for Scotland economically - for the sake of argument let's assume both options are achievable with wave of a magic wand
1) Stay in the UK
2) Leave the UK and inherit our current EU membership so keeping all the opt-outs
Ive not seen it anywhere that the EU actually want Scotland in, and even if they do would they qualify under the EU terms or would they just "fudge" it like they have before? If they did do that could Scotland turn into another Greece but without the sun. The danger also is that should we be the first brick to be removed a crumbling wall, the Scots would be joining a failing institution.
Maybe I should have highlighted the "magic wand" aspect that means it is achievable and keep the op-outs which obviously include no Euro membership.
So that leaves a fear they would be joining a failing institution. Without wishing to go off nobody has posted a credible source on which to base that supposition. But if it it did happen the EU would probably contract into a code of core of wealthy North european countries of which Scotland would be one
Someone in the EPP did make some reference to being open to members, aimed at Scotland.
They may actually want the Euro, given the pound would presumably crash further in that scenario (?)0 -
Also the referendum campagin was fought by both main groups with the view "the end justifies the means". Of course this is why we are so divided.
Given the politicans that got us into this mess are the I think those politicians on the both the remain and leave side should be voted out or they stand down. A election is needed not to change the result but I think the leave and remain side need to show some humility. New MP's get elected and it would be nice to have more woman in politics. The female MP's did not get involved in the shouting match as much. The next government should a be a coalition of the conservatives, what is left of labour, lib dems, SNP, Irish parties and UKIP is they make a breakthrough. the pm could come from any one of those parties and it might be a good idea if it was not a tory. Again humility is needed. This could calm things down. then structural reforms to how we govern our selves are need along with important work of dealing with our withdrawal from the EU.
One reform is to create a federal U.K as that is the only thing that could stop the scotland and possibly NI going there own way. On the likely scottish referendum ballot paper there should be "out of the U.K" and remain inside a new federal U.K. These plans must be in place before the referendum is called because otherwise it will seem the english are reacting in panic again. also proper devolution of power in england is needed to give local communtities more say and councils proper tax raising powers (raise 75% of what they spend) so there is a point to voting in local elections. This could start to heal the divisions that have built up.
I see the problems and the solutions is something like the above the problem I do not see the tories or even labour implementing it. New blood in needed in the commons. This has gone way beyond who voted which way and why, that no longer matters. We are in a pickle and we all have to climb out together (or scotland will climb out and leave us behind bickering).http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:
Maybe I should have highlighted the "magic wand" aspect that means it is achievable and keep the op-outs which obviously include no Euro membership.
Well until it becomes achievable and the EU state if they want them and under what terms its more smoke and mirrors, Sturgeon can huff and puff but she might find that they don't want her in. Oil prices are low, can the scots economy survive on whisky exports? Dose the EU want to risk the chance of another Greece by letting in a country that may or may not qualify under their own rules and will they break their own rules once again to let them if if they don't qualify?A feather is kinky, a whole chicken is just perverse.0 -
Dorset Boy wrote:Joel - I voted to remain but knew it was likely to be close. However I don't buy into the doomsday scenario that was put across pre-vote by Boy George which clearly you have done.
It is essential in a democracy to respect the will of the people and that other hold different views to others. the sooner more remember this the sooner we can start to move forward.
How can anyone move forward? we are leaderless and have no effective opposition - which ever way you look at it, from the economics, what to do with our passports, our lack of exporting industry and reliance on FS to UK borders/territories in france and Gibraltar add in the division this vote has caused in the country and it is a complete and utter mess, all because one fool party wanted to win a GE out right.
i get the distinct impression from the Leaves, that a (very) long period of reflection is what they want and its looking like a year or so before they are even thinking of article 50 (6months before new PM, then informal talks)
New negotiations with EU, followed by "we have secured deals of migration etc so no need to leave"0 -
Dorset Boy wrote:Have you ever watched financial markets before?
The pound's at a new post-1985 low, which is pretty remarkable regardless of how much you've watched financial markets!
Remains to be seen whether it'll last, though.0 -
thecycleclinic wrote:Also the referendum campagin was fought by both main groups with the view "the end justifies the means". Of course this is why we are so divided.
Given the politicans that got us into this mess are the I think those politicians on the both the remain and leave side should be voted out or they stand down. A election is needed not to change the result but I think the leave and remain side need to show some humility. New MP's get elected and it would be nice to have more woman in politics. The female MP's did not get involved in the shouting match as much. The next government should a be a coalition of the conservatives, what is left of labour, lib dems, SNP, Irish parties and UKIP is they make a breakthrough. the pm could come from any one of those parties and it might be a good idea if it was not a tory. Again humility is needed. This could calm things down. then structural reforms to how we govern our selves are need along with important work of dealing with our withdrawal from the EU.
One reform is to create a federal U.K as that is the only thing that could stop the scotland and possibly NI going there own way. On the likely scottish referendum ballot paper there should be "out of the U.K" and remain inside a new federal U.K. These plans must be in place before the referendum is called because otherwise it will seem the english are reacting in panic again. also proper devolution of power in england is needed to give local communtities more say and councils proper tax raising powers (raise 75% of what they spend) so there is a point to voting in local elections. This could start to heal the divisions that have built up.
I see the problems and the solutions is something like the above the problem I do not see the tories or even labour implementing it. New blood in needed in the commons. This has gone way beyond who voted which way and why, that no longer matters. We are in a pickle and we all have to climb out together (or scotland will climb out and leave us behind bickering).
...and breathe0 -
I just find it mildly irritating that the government manages to think ahead less than I do. It is like they are blind. At least the leave side are reflecting, that is obviou. Even farage is missing. Given osbornes comments this morning I think the government is trying to create wriggle room and way of avoiding brexit which will of course create it own problems at home, and with our EU partners who will simply say WTF!
Essentially the next pm has a poison challace to drink from. the premiership could end with the break up of the U.K the soul searching that will bring. I am surprised all the tories are not all ruling themselves out. Maybe Labour are commiting suicide to ensure it wont be them.
We could ask Italy to take over the running of the country. the italians are the masters at managing permenant crisis. they will also bring nice food with them too.http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.0 -
Reality has dawned on some key protagonists.
Just the issue of several hundred billion dollars and complete laughing-stock status to contend with over the next few months. Oh and the civil unrest.
Article 50 will be left on the table, untriggered but always in the background.0 -
I am beginning to wonder if the rest of the world is looking on incredulously as we fiddle around. What we need is Art50 triggered and someone to be named to pull it all together. I sense DC is proving to be utterly contemptible in that he wanted Remain but uis prepared to send the country to the dogs since we didn't back him...which he can then turn around and say "I told you so", bit like some of the posts on here. The crap we are in is about not managing Leave, not Leave itself.0
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I don't think he's punishing the country, I think it is personal and he's trying to put Boris in tight a corner as possible on the assumption he will be the new PM.0
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Bobbinogs wrote:I am beginning to wonder if the rest of the world is looking on incredulously as we fiddle around. What we need is Art50 triggered and someone to be named to pull it all together. I sense DC is proving to be utterly contemptible in that he wanted Remain but uis prepared to send the country to the dogs since we didn't back him...which he can then turn around and say "I told you so", bit like some of the posts on here. The crap we are in is about not managing Leave, not Leave itself.
Shouldn't the onus be on those who wanted to leave to have a viable plan in place stating what they want and how they propose to get it? As it stands whoever does the negotiation isn't going to satisfy the majority of those who wanted out let alone appease anyone who wanted to remain.0 -
Tories have announced new leader will be announced on 2nd September
that to me indicates the Eu have a lot of leverage - not good for the outcome of these negotiations.
We really are a bunch of amateurs0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Tories have announced new leader will be announced on 2nd September
that to me indicates the Eu have a lot of leverage - not good for the outcome of these negotiations.
We really are a bunch of amateurs
Its a bit rabbit in the headlights, but was that just a sign of the disconnect of the westminster bubble from 17m people ? It looks more and more like no one expected the answer they got and now its time to panic without showing they are.A feather is kinky, a whole chicken is just perverse.0 -
Bobbinogs wrote:I am beginning to wonder if the rest of the world is looking on incredulously as we fiddle around. What we need is Art50 triggered and someone to be named to pull it all together. I sense DC is proving to be utterly contemptible in that he wanted Remain but uis prepared to send the country to the dogs since we didn't back him...which he can then turn around and say "I told you so", bit like some of the posts on here. The crap we are in is about not managing Leave, not Leave itself.
I imagine Leave asked him not to invoke A50. Why did Leave not have a team flying to Brussels on Friday morning?
The problem is Leave - the experts lined up to tell you what would happen and it is happening
The problem will be exacerbated by the failure to manage our exit... the EU look like they are holding all the aces.
The lack of a plan really does not bode well0 -
Today's market performances:
UK FTSE 100: -2.55 per cent
UK FTSE 250: -6.96 per cent
Italy FTSE MIB: -3.94 per cent
France CAC 40: -3.22 per cent
Germany DAX 30: -3.02 per cent
Ireland ISEQ: -9.47 per cent
Sweden OMX: -8.42 per cent
And currencies:
Sterling against dollar: -3.44 per cent
Euro against dollar: -0.94 per cent
Swiss franc against dollar: +0.65 per cent
Sterling at levels not seen since 1985.
But I am sure it will rebound when Leave put forwards their well thought out and cohesive plan for exiting.0 -
bramstoker wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Tories have announced new leader will be announced on 2nd September
that to me indicates the Eu have a lot of leverage - not good for the outcome of these negotiations.
We really are a bunch of amateurs
Its a bit rabbit in the headlights, but was that just a sign of the disconnect of the westminster bubble from 17m people ? It looks more and more like no one expected the answer they got and now its time to panic without showing they are.
this was not done on a whim - it was at least 20 years in the making. They simply must have a plan, don't they? what would they gain from not showing? could they be doing deals behind closed doors? putting the finishing touches to a cross party working committee?
Nobody would announce they were moving to Australia because life would be better without checking out whether they could get a working visa, they could get a job, how much it paid and what the cost of living was.0 -
Bobbinogs wrote:I am beginning to wonder if the rest of the world is looking on incredulously as we fiddle around. What we need is Art50 triggered and someone to be named to pull it all together. I sense DC is proving to be utterly contemptible in that he wanted Remain but uis prepared to send the country to the dogs since we didn't back him...which he can then turn around and say "I told you so", bit like some of the posts on here. The crap we are in is about not managing Leave, not Leave itself.
Couldn't agree less with this, except for the first sentence.
Triggering Article 50 will send the country to the dogs, which is exactly why no one in power will trigger it. Farage would but his motive is singular.0 -
verylonglegs wrote:I don't think he's punishing the country, I think it is personal and he's trying to put Boris in tight a corner as possible on the assumption he will be the new PM.
I don't even think it's personal. He simply doesn't want to be any more responsible for the carnage that will result and go down in history as the man who split up the UK and took us out of Europe. He made a huge mistake in calling the Referendum anyway, but he doesn't want to leave so why should he be responsible for that too?0 -
Corbyn's list of vacancies just gets longer and longer
My boss still refusing to accept that there might be any negative impact to our business despite 3 project postponements today...0
