BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Pross wrote:I'm still struggling with what was going on in Cameron's head promising a referendum in the first place. The EU was a non -issue for the vast majority of the electorate (immigration was but I think it will remain so when we leave as to most of those concerned immigration covers all foreigners not just EU citizens). Obviously the intention was to heal divisions in the Tory party but that was never going to work whichever way the result went and has now just caused a huge rift in the general population too.
UKIP were on a roll - he promised it to stop them - with hindsight it seems his biggest mistake was to not raise the bar to 60% majority on a 75% turnout.0 -
Yes, there was coverage if you were interested enough to go looking for it - 4 way split wasn't it? Another election on the cards?ugo.santalucia wrote:look at the pro Europe bbc, any news about the Spanish elections? Anyone knows there was a General election in Spain? Shouldn't it be bigger news than some Cricket match or a tennis tournament nobody has ever heard about?
I have British friends who live in Mallorca - I asked how much interest the locals had in the Brexit referendum - little to nothing apparently, and virtually no press coverage.ugo.santalucia wrote:The news of Spanish elections were in massive capital letters in Italy and across the rest of continental Europe, but here.
Ugo, I'm not trying to start a fight, but please stop generalising......"It must be true, it's on the internet" - Winston Churchill0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:
I agree with everything you say -it just feels like a very expensive way for Boris to get his portrait hung on the staircase of 10 Downing St.
But probably his only chance... in Italy you can have a successful political career that covers 3 decades, but here you have one shot at glory... some make it some don't and disappear... look at Milliband, not the idiot, the other one, the good one... he had one shot, lost and disappeared... in Italy he would have been recalled after Ed failed. Look at William Hague... lost and disappeared. It's an unforgiving political system and sometimes the casualties are really not as bad... I still think Milliband senior is the only electable face of Labour, but he's expired, finished... why? No idea...
Boris's star peaked... you can't stay on top for very long, unless you take control... in 4 years time he would be seen as history and someone else would come up to challenge him for leadership and beat him. His moment is now, for the good or the badleft the forum March 20230 -
This. I find it hard to comprehend that less than 40% of the electorate can force such a momentous change: at the very least, the bar should have been at 50% of the total electorate.Surrey Commuter wrote:it seems his biggest mistake was to not raise the bar to 60% majority on a 75% turnout.
Still, as has been pointed out an awful lot recently, the turnout was high among those who would tend to vote Out and low among those (i.e. mainly the young) who would tend to vote In. As usual, there are a lot of people who should take some share of the blame, and the apathetic are certainly right up there among the biggest.0 -
Bo Duke wrote:The vast majority of posts this weekend are so all so one sided we're not actually breaking any new ground except in the personal insult and bitterness department as a 'few' (I exaggerate of course..) vertically challenged members continue to throw everything out of the pram. What's the end game, boredom or the TdF?
What's done, is done. The sideshows of a few nutters swearing in the street at 'foreigners' and wearing rude tee shirts will go on a little while longer until they too get bored of it. Then?
Let's talk about 'then'. What comes next otherwise we're all as bad as No Plan Boris.
The EU needs the UK market - go ask BMW, Mercedes etc.. hundreds of thousands of EU jobs depend on our economy smoothly transiting from one status to the other. The EU called our bluff once trying to act tough, I doubt they'll try it a second time despite the bravado of the MEP for Malta on the radio ('Kick them out without any concessions')
Morgan Stanley announcing 1,000 job losses.... within 24 hs? Seems Brexit is a perfect excuse to announce bad news and defect flak.. Jeez.. even a minister came out as lesbian, is Boris's fault as well?
Boris can't announce a way forward until everyone calms down as even the most sensible strategy will be slagged off by the bigoted ones who remain bitter that democracy was allowed to get in the way of the EU.
Let's take a break, have a kit-kat then work together as a nation to come up with a plan that will we can all feel good about - whatever that is. If you want to give up.. well that's your choice but its never been the British way.
check out what the experienced EU watchers are saying - seems like they want a fast outcome and in no mood to compromise.
Your comment about coming up with a plan sums up the stupidity of our situation. There was and is no plan!!! how can they have advocated leaving when they had no idea of what the world would look like afterwards?? they do not know which trade model they want which means they do not know if it is politically feasible or would work economically. They have not modeled any of these outcomes.0 -
crispybug2 wrote:ugo.santalucia wrote:So basically Boris' plan is Switzerland... I'd sign for a Switzerland outcome... I still regret choosing the Uk and not Switzerland when I could in 2000... just a matter of seeing how many of the 27 partners agree to have another Switzerland
On an entirely flippant point, but wasn't there a hedge fund that relocated from London to Switzerland as a result of the reforms of the banking sector but were back in London within a couple of years because the traders found Switzerland too boring?
Oddly enough I heard the same comment from a trader at the weekend. He said no way will anything move to Switzerland as no-one liked it and would up roots to move. Firm knows this and has made provisions to keep their operations running from London.0 -
Andcp wrote:I have British friends who live in Mallorca - I asked how much interest the locals had in the Brexit referendum - little to nothing apparently, and virtually no press coverage.
Ugo, I'm not trying to start a fight, but please stop generalising......
What do you mean no press coverage? Have you looked at El Pais website? Brexit was bigger than their own general election coming up 3 days later!
Now, you tell me where the Spanish general election featured in the British media...as you say, you have to look for the information down the pages... you can't deny that European events are barely covered by British media, which reflects the poor interest of the nation with respect to any European politicsleft the forum March 20230 -
Possibly because, in the end, Brexit is of more significance to Spain's future than their own general election?0
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bradsbeard wrote:crispybug2 wrote:ugo.santalucia wrote:So basically Boris' plan is Switzerland... I'd sign for a Switzerland outcome... I still regret choosing the Uk and not Switzerland when I could in 2000... just a matter of seeing how many of the 27 partners agree to have another Switzerland
On an entirely flippant point, but wasn't there a hedge fund that relocated from London to Switzerland as a result of the reforms of the banking sector but were back in London within a couple of years because the traders found Switzerland too boring?
Oddly enough I heard the same comment from a trader at the weekend. He said no way will anything move to Switzerland as no-one liked it and would up roots to move. Firm knows this and has made provisions to keep their operations running from London.
the hedge fund moved for tax reasons.
if a bank loses passporting rights then it's business from EU countries will no longer exist. The chap who refused to move will find that his dept has closed down. You need to speak to his boss - he may know more about the contingency plans.0 -
That's the interesting one - not only are there different noises coming from different quarters (Juncker is in the "bugger off quickly" camp, as it fits his agenda of deeper integration, while others, including Merkel are saying "take your time to get it right"), but as far as I can tell the Treaty does not give the EU the option of telling a nation to invoke Article 50, however much the EU might like to. Very much uncharted waters, and (to continue the analogy) a very fluid situation.Surrey Commuter wrote:check out what the experienced EU watchers are saying - seems like they want a fast outcome and in no mood to compromise.0 -
I totally agree that Brexit must happen as the population has voted. But the process is as clear as the rear windscreen on my car...Scotland, House of Commons challenge, new PM, possibly new General election, then invoking clause 50 to start the real negotiations which I think require 60% EU majority to agree? . International Investment decisions surely must be put on hold until there is stability and clarity, and whilst Merkel may be in no hurry, every delay is bad for business. Will big banks use it as a smokescreen to do things they wanted to do anyway? Yes. Wont make the people any less unemployed, though.Bo Duke wrote:Joel, the danger of undermining democracy makes your idea unworkable. We can't destroy what our fathers have defended with their lives simply because you don't like the outcome of a vote. Sorry mate.
As for BoJo succeeding David Cameron, I can only assume even Boris thought the vote would lose, as if you think it would win surely it was obvious Cameron would resign - why stay around and try and fix a mess not of your creating?Fitter....healthier....more productive.....0 -
bradsbeard wrote:crispybug2 wrote:ugo.santalucia wrote:So basically Boris' plan is Switzerland... I'd sign for a Switzerland outcome... I still regret choosing the Uk and not Switzerland when I could in 2000... just a matter of seeing how many of the 27 partners agree to have another Switzerland
On an entirely flippant point, but wasn't there a hedge fund that relocated from London to Switzerland as a result of the reforms of the banking sector but were back in London within a couple of years because the traders found Switzerland too boring?
Oddly enough I heard the same comment from a trader at the weekend. He said no way will anything move to Switzerland as no-one liked it and would up roots to move. Firm knows this and has made provisions to keep their operations running from London.
the hedge fund moved for tax reasons.
if a bank loses passporting rights then it's business from EU countries will no longer exist. The chap who refused to move will find that his dept has closed down. You need to speak to his boss - he may know more about the contingency plans.0 -
Switzerland had (has) a utility for Europe that the UK doesn't. Its where all the CDU politicians keep their money.Surrey Commuter wrote:bradsbeard wrote:crispybug2 wrote:ugo.santalucia wrote:So basically Boris' plan is Switzerland... I'd sign for a Switzerland outcome... I still regret choosing the Uk and not Switzerland when I could in 2000... just a matter of seeing how many of the 27 partners agree to have another Switzerland
On an entirely flippant point, but wasn't there a hedge fund that relocated from London to Switzerland as a result of the reforms of the banking sector but were back in London within a couple of years because the traders found Switzerland too boring?
Oddly enough I heard the same comment from a trader at the weekend. He said no way will anything move to Switzerland as no-one liked it and would up roots to move. Firm knows this and has made provisions to keep their operations running from London.
the hedge fund moved for tax reasons.
if a bank loses passporting rights then it's business from EU countries will no longer exist. The chap who refused to move will find that his dept has closed down. You need to speak to his boss - he may know more about the contingency plans.
I also agree there is less of a short term desire, nor pressure to relocate bankers to Europe "due to tax reasons". BUt long term they will have to move where the business is...Fitter....healthier....more productive.....0 -
bompington wrote:Possibly because, in the end, Brexit is of more significance to Spain's future than their own general election?
that is debatable.
and as 28% of the UK electorate did not vote and most of the rest had no real understanding of the issues it seems harsh to pick on the average Spaniard for not "getting it"0 -
ddraver wrote:Q: How many Brexiters does it take to change a lightbulb?
A: We never said there was a lightbulb.
made me smirk....
A: Lightbulb change was never part of our commitment - that was the other leave campaign and we never endorsed it. But we all know whose fault it is we can't get 100W bulbs.0 -
I am taking the word of my friends - British, yes, but they are quite integrated into Mallorcan life. They speak Spanish and 'Mallorquin' well, and one of them is very interested in politics so goes looking for information. He also spends a lot of time in Madrid, so he gets around a bit.ugo.santalucia wrote:Andcp wrote:I have British friends who live in Mallorca - I asked how much interest the locals had in the Brexit referendum - little to nothing apparently, and virtually no press coverage.
Ugo, I'm not trying to start a fight, but please stop generalising......
What do you mean no press coverage? Have you looked at El Pais website? Brexit was bigger than their own general election coming up 3 days later!
Now, you tell me where the Spanish general election featured in the British media...as you say, you have to look for the information down the pages... you can't deny that European events are barely covered by British media, which reflects the poor interest of the nation with respect to any European politics
1 hour ago: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-36632276ugo.santalucia wrote:Now, you tell me where the Spanish general election featured in the British media.
I cannot deny that European events are barely covered in the British media, and personally I think it's a sad state of affairs."It must be true, it's on the internet" - Winston Churchill0 -
bompington wrote:Possibly because, in the end, Brexit is of more significance to Spain's future than their own general election?
Which is the Great British answer to pretty much anything... and completely proves my point
left the forum March 20230 -
briantrumpet wrote:
That's the interesting one - not only are there different noises coming from different quarters (Juncker is in the "bugger off quickly" camp, as it fits his agenda of deeper integration, while others, including Merkel are saying "take your time to get it right"), but as far as I can tell the Treaty does not give the EU the option of telling a nation to invoke Article 50, however much the EU might like to. Very much uncharted waters, and (to continue the analogy) a very fluid situation.Surrey Commuter wrote:check out what the experienced EU watchers are saying - seems like they want a fast outcome and in no mood to compromise.
The suggestions are that Merkel does not count 3 months to pick a new leader as reasonable.
My memory of the Greek crisis is that there was no mechanism for kicking them out of the EU so in theory we could take years to negotiate every last detail then jump. However we don't have an understanding of how they can make our lives intolerable. Why did our EU Commissioner resign? surely his UK bosses would have said whatever you do stay put, defend our interests and be a conduit for negotiations. Could the £350m a week gross become net?
I have a lot of respect for the EU as negotiators and I think we have shot ourselves in both feet and are about to be eaten alive.0 -
The Welsh assembly was created on the basis of a 51% yes vote on a 50% turnout, so the precedent has been set. The 1977 devo vote in Wales failed as the winning yes majority did not meet the 50% of population rule for that vote. Cameron chose the rules for this one, so the Remain side have shaky grounds for a re-run.
However as Camron broke two key promises within a few hour of losing - to stay on as PM and to invoke Article 50 immediately, then who knows what he'll do next.0 -
Frankly fellas the referendum was 'won' on a pack of lies.
Boris was well and truly out-manoevered by Cameron resigning with regard to Article 50. Boris doesn't even believe in Brexit, and wasn't expecting to win. Now he's stuck and I'm pretty sure he's planning to try to get himself untangled. In reality he's guaranteed being abused every time he leaves his house for the rest of his life.
As the economy implodes and overt racism increases, feelings will change and the need to invoke Article 50 will reduce.
This is merely the beginning of the fight for the Remain voters which includes plenty in the media, big business, science, education - a whole host of experts in fact!
The Tories have alienated a substantial percentage of their voters, and I suspect many floating voters. Labour have realised that they'll never have a better opportunity to welcome these people and in order to do that they need someone less 'socialist' than Corbyn.
One thing we do know is that every day there is going to be more bad news on the economy. Another thing we do know is that the feelings of hurt and resentment about how this referendum was conducted are unprecedented - the fight has just started.0 -
I wonder Cameron resigning he leaves a door adjar for a general election. Even by October they'll be an idea of badly or how well it's going to go.
Said election takes place next spring when we'll be seeing what real fallout there is. All 3 parties then run saying they will not evoke the article 50 due the sh!tstorm created. The people get the hump but what will have seen what a mess the referendum has created and swallow it. Lets be fair a lot of people who voted in the EU referendum do not vote in general elections.
Of course as with everything it's a who knows what will happen.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:There was and is no plan!!! how can they have advocated leaving when they had no idea of what the world would look like afterwards?? they do not know which trade model they want which means they do not know if it is politically feasible or would work economically. They have not modeled any of these outcomes.
Not only did they not have a plan, they did not admit that they didn't have a plan and formulating a plan was literally impossible. The 27 remaining EU member states will now have to agree to what type of deal they will do with us. We don't know how long this will take, we don't know what they will all agree to. Why did leave not admit this during the campaign?0 -
Im wondering if in six months time we dont have a general election of the LIberals versus the Fascists (sorry, Brexiters)Joelsim wrote:Frankly fellas the referendum was 'won' on a pack of lies.
Boris was well and truly out-manoevered by Cameron resigning with regard to Article 50. Boris doesn't even believe in Brexit, and wasn't expecting to win. Now he's stuck and I'm pretty sure he's planning to try to get himself untangled. In reality he's guaranteed being abused every time he leaves his house for the rest of his life.
As the economy implodes and overt racism increases, feelings will change and the need to invoke Article 50 will reduce.
This is merely the beginning of the fight for the Remain voters which includes plenty in the media, big business, science, education - a whole host of experts in fact!
The Tories have alienated a substantial percentage of their voters, and I suspect many floating voters. Labour have realised that they'll never have a better opportunity to welcome these people and in order to do that they need someone less 'socialist' than Corbyn.
One thing we do know is that every day there is going to be more bad news on the economy. Another thing we do know is that the feelings of hurt and resentment about how this referendum was conducted are unprecedented - the fight has just started.Fitter....healthier....more productive.....0 -
4kicks wrote:
Im wondering if in six months time we dont have a general election of the LIberals versus the Fascists (sorry, Brexiters)Joelsim wrote:Frankly fellas the referendum was 'won' on a pack of lies.
Boris was well and truly out-manoevered by Cameron resigning with regard to Article 50. Boris doesn't even believe in Brexit, and wasn't expecting to win. Now he's stuck and I'm pretty sure he's planning to try to get himself untangled. In reality he's guaranteed being abused every time he leaves his house for the rest of his life.
As the economy implodes and overt racism increases, feelings will change and the need to invoke Article 50 will reduce.
This is merely the beginning of the fight for the Remain voters which includes plenty in the media, big business, science, education - a whole host of experts in fact!
The Tories have alienated a substantial percentage of their voters, and I suspect many floating voters. Labour have realised that they'll never have a better opportunity to welcome these people and in order to do that they need someone less 'socialist' than Corbyn.
One thing we do know is that every day there is going to be more bad news on the economy. Another thing we do know is that the feelings of hurt and resentment about how this referendum was conducted are unprecedented - the fight has just started.
We will. And in the meantime there will be loads of fascist vs anti-fascist fighting.0 -
4kicks wrote:
Im wondering if in six months time we dont have a general election of the LIberals versus the Fascists (sorry, Brexiters)Joelsim wrote:Frankly fellas the referendum was 'won' on a pack of lies.
Boris was well and truly out-manoevered by Cameron resigning with regard to Article 50. Boris doesn't even believe in Brexit, and wasn't expecting to win. Now he's stuck and I'm pretty sure he's planning to try to get himself untangled. In reality he's guaranteed being abused every time he leaves his house for the rest of his life.
As the economy implodes and overt racism increases, feelings will change and the need to invoke Article 50 will reduce.
This is merely the beginning of the fight for the Remain voters which includes plenty in the media, big business, science, education - a whole host of experts in fact!
The Tories have alienated a substantial percentage of their voters, and I suspect many floating voters. Labour have realised that they'll never have a better opportunity to welcome these people and in order to do that they need someone less 'socialist' than Corbyn.
One thing we do know is that every day there is going to be more bad news on the economy. Another thing we do know is that the feelings of hurt and resentment about how this referendum was conducted are unprecedented - the fight has just started.
Can we have less of the silly name calling please? Lets at least act as though we're mature eh?'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP0 -
mrfpb wrote:The Welsh assembly was created on the basis of a 51% yes vote on a 50% turnout, so the precedent has been set. The 1977 devo vote in Wales failed as the winning yes majority did not meet the 50% of population rule for that vote. Cameron chose the rules for this one, so the Remain side have shaky grounds for a re-run.
However as Camron broke two key promises within a few hour of losing - to stay on as PM and to invoke Article 50 immediately, then who knows what he'll do next.
I for one am arguing he was a mug for structuring it the way he did. I am not arguing (or signing petitions) for a re-run.
Cameron had to go he was a lame duck and in no position to negotiate our exit. Not invoking Art50 is probably the best decision made... though if I was a Brexiteer I would worry more as each day passed.
Anyway that is all in the past. What is your opinion of the backsliding on promises about the weekly £350m to the NHS and no control of immigration plus the complete lack of any planning?0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:mrfpb wrote:The Welsh assembly was created on the basis of a 51% yes vote on a 50% turnout, so the precedent has been set. The 1977 devo vote in Wales failed as the winning yes majority did not meet the 50% of population rule for that vote. Cameron chose the rules for this one, so the Remain side have shaky grounds for a re-run.
However as Camron broke two key promises within a few hour of losing - to stay on as PM and to invoke Article 50 immediately, then who knows what he'll do next.
I for one am arguing he was a mug for structuring it the way he did. I am not arguing (or signing petitions) for a re-run.
Cameron had to go he was a lame duck and in no position to negotiate our exit. Not invoking Art50 is probably the best decision made... though if I was a Brexiteer I would worry more as each day passed.
Anyway that is all in the past. What is your opinion of the backsliding on promises about the weekly £350m to the NHS and no control of immigration plus the complete lack of any planning?
Surely it was pretty obvious that those promises were pie in the sky anyway weren't they?0 -
bradsbeard wrote:I wonder Cameron resigning he leaves a door adjar for a general election. Even by October they'll be an idea of badly or how well it's going to go.
Said election takes place next spring when we'll be seeing what real fallout there is. All 3 parties then run saying they will not evoke the article 50 due the sh!tstorm created. The people get the hump but what will have seen what a mess the referendum has created and swallow it. Lets be fair a lot of people who voted in the EU referendum do not vote in general elections.
Of course as with everything it's a who knows what will happen.
we don't have a plan - how on earth could this be going well by October. The EU will not want this crap dragging on so will have forced us to invoke A50 way before next Spring.
Before anybody asks I don't know how they can force us but a lot of experts seem to think they can so I will report back when I have figured it out.0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:bradsbeard wrote:I wonder Cameron resigning he leaves a door adjar for a general election. Even by October they'll be an idea of badly or how well it's going to go.
Said election takes place next spring when we'll be seeing what real fallout there is. All 3 parties then run saying they will not evoke the article 50 due the sh!tstorm created. The people get the hump but what will have seen what a mess the referendum has created and swallow it. Lets be fair a lot of people who voted in the EU referendum do not vote in general elections.
Of course as with everything it's a who knows what will happen.
we don't have a plan - how on earth could this be going well by October. The EU will not want this crap dragging on so will have forced us to invoke A50 way before next Spring.
Before anybody asks I don't know how they can force us but a lot of experts seem to think they can so I will report back when I have figured it out.
The EU don't legally have the ability to force us to invoke Article 50.0
