BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

mamba80

mrfpb wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

you might be right, there is certainly amongst member states population a demand for change - but what bothers me is what is the uk going to do once we vote out? we dont make anything anymore and should the eu tempt bmw, peugeot etc back to the mainland and/or the banks start relocating, what then?

SC, we may have no choice but to rejoin.

The European single market is unique in that it applies to goods and services, not just goods. Our main export is financial services from the City of London. I posted a link to a BBC article on the previous page that reported that Dutch and German businesses are already putting pressure to their governments to support free trade in the event of Brexit, (and that British businesses are having conversations with our government to discuss continuing trade) so the views of hardline commissioners aren't the only factors in play.

The problem is that the UK gov't will be responsible for Brexit negotiations, and there is no way they will state what position they will take before the referendum.

you might be correct, then again........ the bottom line is that eu cannot allow the UK to leave with zero consequence and the goods and services? well brexiters say we ll trade with emerging economies, with what?

coopster_the_1st

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

The anove is why the brexitiers fears are unfounded. Just as they think the eu cannot be reformed its top brass think now is the time for a rethink of its future role. Brexit voters just fail to read between the lines. The eu will reform itself. If britain is in we can steer it in direcrion that suits us. The current eu single market looks the way it does thanks to britain (industrial pooicy, state aid rules, health and safety policy mostly originate in our cival service). Britain and germany can set the agenda for the future of the eu we have to be in though.

I have to disagree. While there is some political will to reform, our failure to secure real reform in our renegotiation shows that the old guard still hold sway. We will not get another chance to negotiate in this way from the inside for another generation. The first debate link I posted suggests that most in the EU think our deal is a good one, and if we vote for it that is all the reform that is needed. Most of the countries wanting real reform are minnows - though Poland ought to be a big fish. The UK are the only big fish pushing for reform. Only the shock of the UK leaving will be enough to reform the EU.

you might be right, there is certainly amongst member states population a demand for change - but what bothers me is what is the uk going to do once we vote out? we dont make anything anymore and should the eu tempt bmw, peugeot etc back to the mainland and/or the banks start relocating, what then?

SC, we may have no choice but to rejoin.

The banks will have to transfer stuff immediately so you could see 100,000 jobs go and a colossal fiscal hit.
Manufacturing I see as a slow decline as all future investment goes internal to EU.

You say we have no choice but to rejoin but I just don''t see where the impetus comes from. If we vote out it will have meant that the majority voted with their hearts not their heads. I can't see what would change that.

Do you have a source for this immediate transfer of 100k jobs?

Then the practical questions behind this:
- Where in Europe will these 100,000 jobs relocate to? The financial district of just Canary Wharf is larger than the next biggest financial centre in Europe (Frankfurt).
Where will these 100k people come from? It's not like are going to be unskilled jobs. The 100k people that will have to move have set down roots in London, have their kids in school, friends, family and social networks all in place, etc.

OK, maybe they will have to transfer some computer systems into an EU location so the transaction is made in the EU area. These businesses already have offices based in EU countries so will not need to transfer employees to enable this.

What moved or was relocated when we did not join the Euro?

The remain campaign are just over stating or trying to scare the electorate with the above. We have heard all this before and because of that it is diluted for this referendum.

'Boy who cried wolf' anyone?

surrey_commuter

Pinno wrote:

On the subject of the Euro, wouldn't it be fair to say that if we joined the Euro, the value would increase and be on a par with the US dollar, it would then become an global currency and our exports would be cheaper for our export markets as sterling is prohibitively strong.

I don't understand the aversion to joining the Euro

The Euro strengthening would make exports more expensive, but might still be weaker than sterling - it is said Germany benefit from this.

The problem with the Euro is that you have one monetary policy ( essentially interest rate) for every country. Arguably the Uk has such a disparate economy that one interest rate is not the optimal number.

mamba80

Coopster, last week our company failed to renew an IT contract with a euro support desk, we ll see UK job losses, if the client also moves back to mainland europe, they ll be more.
a mate of mine, a CEO, is taking a euro country to court over unfair trade restrictions, once we are out, he would have no one to turn to, european countries will see our companies as fair game.
As the guy from a pharmaceuticals company tried to explain to Farage last week, we are tied to EU in many industries, once that link is broken?

as for Peter and the Wolf, didnt he eventually get eaten up?

coopster_the_1st

Pinno wrote:

On the subject of the Euro, wouldn't it be fair to say that if we joined the Euro, the value would increase and be on a par with the US dollar, it would then become an global currency and our exports would be cheaper for our export markets as sterling is prohibitively strong.

I don't understand the aversion to joining the Euro

Are you trying to add another post for yourself in this thread? viewtopic.php?f=30005&t=12934419&start=1980#p19892876 :roll:

I think it is past your bed time...

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

The anove is why the brexitiers fears are unfounded. Just as they think the eu cannot be reformed its top brass think now is the time for a rethink of its future role. Brexit voters just fail to read between the lines. The eu will reform itself. If britain is in we can steer it in direcrion that suits us. The current eu single market looks the way it does thanks to britain (industrial pooicy, state aid rules, health and safety policy mostly originate in our cival service). Britain and germany can set the agenda for the future of the eu we have to be in though.

I have to disagree. While there is some political will to reform, our failure to secure real reform in our renegotiation shows that the old guard still hold sway. We will not get another chance to negotiate in this way from the inside for another generation. The first debate link I posted suggests that most in the EU think our deal is a good one, and if we vote for it that is all the reform that is needed. Most of the countries wanting real reform are minnows - though Poland ought to be a big fish. The UK are the only big fish pushing for reform. Only the shock of the UK leaving will be enough to reform the EU.

you might be right, there is certainly amongst member states population a demand for change - but what bothers me is what is the uk going to do once we vote out? we dont make anything anymore and should the eu tempt bmw, peugeot etc back to the mainland and/or the banks start relocating, what then?

SC, we may have no choice but to rejoin.

The banks will have to transfer stuff immediately so you could see 100,000 jobs go and a colossal fiscal hit.
Manufacturing I see as a slow decline as all future investment goes internal to EU.

You say we have no choice but to rejoin but I just don''t see where the impetus comes from. If we vote out it will have meant that the majority voted with their hearts not their heads. I can't see what would change that.

Do you have a source for this immediate transfer of 100k jobs?

Then the practical questions behind this:
- Where in Europe will these 100,000 jobs relocate to? The financial district of just Canary Wharf is larger than the next biggest financial centre in Europe (Frankfurt).
Where will these 100k people come from? It's not like are going to be unskilled jobs. The 100k people that will have to move have set down roots in London, have their kids in school, friends, family and social networks all in place, etc.

OK, maybe they will have to transfer some computer systems into an EU location so the transaction is made in the EU area. These businesses already have offices based in EU countries so will not need to transfer employees to enable this.

What moved or was relocated when we did not join the Euro?

The remain campaign are just over stating or trying to scare the electorate with the above. We have heard all this before and because of that it is diluted for this referendum.

'Boy who cried wolf' anyone?

Immediate equals two years. I know for a fact that they have drawn up contingency plans and are wincing at the costs. All will not go to the same financial centre. If there is one thing that banks have in abundance it is office space. Many of these individuals are foreign. Brits could always do a weekly commute.

pinno

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Pinno wrote:

On the subject of the Euro, wouldn't it be fair to say that if we joined the Euro, the value would increase and be on a par with the US dollar, it would then become an global currency and our exports would be cheaper for our export markets as sterling is prohibitively strong.

I don't understand the aversion to joining the Euro

The Euro strengthening would make exports more expensive, but might still be weaker than sterling - it is said Germany benefit from this.

The problem with the Euro is that you have one monetary policy ( essentially interest rate) for every country. Arguably the Uk has such a disparate economy that one interest rate is not the optimal number.

I'd like a better interest rate on savings* :roll:

*It's not serious, so forget it.

No worries BBG.

pinno

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Pinno wrote:

On the subject of the Euro, wouldn't it be fair to say that if we joined the Euro, the value would increase and be on a par with the US dollar, it would then become an global currency and our exports would be cheaper for our export markets as sterling is prohibitively strong.

I don't understand the aversion to joining the Euro

Are you trying to add another post for yourself in this thread? viewtopic.php?f=30005&t=12934419&start=1980#p19892876 :roll:

I think it is past your bed time...

Is there any need for that ^?

coopster_the_1st

Pinno wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Pinno wrote:

On the subject of the Euro, wouldn't it be fair to say that if we joined the Euro, the value would increase and be on a par with the US dollar, it would then become an global currency and our exports would be cheaper for our export markets as sterling is prohibitively strong.

I don't understand the aversion to joining the Euro

Are you trying to add another post for yourself in this thread? viewtopic.php?f=30005&t=12934419&start=1980#p19892876 :roll:

I think it is past your bed time...

Is there any need for that ^?

The bit in bold shows you are just trying to wind-up this thread (and yes I have read the last few pages of the linked thread)

pinno

No I am not Coopster. You're wrong.

A) I genuinely do not understand the aversion to joining the Euro and
I only ever get involved in silly threads that have already 'kicked off'.

If you have something against me then PM it, as this is not the place considering the recent warnings which I am adhering to. I will not entertain any more comments from you.

BelgianBeerGeek

OK, slightly new argument...
How about the European Union. The question was asked a while back. Someone from Hull, Greece or Australia? How about all? The guy over the road is an Aussie married to a Brit with kids of both nationalities, I have friends in Hull and Greece is the cradle of our civilisation.
Europe is an ideal. There is lots of talk about the "United States of Europe" but so what? Within a European environment, we could be European, British, and Cornish, for example. What the heck could be wrong with that?

pblakeney

BelgianBeerGeek wrote:

Within a European environment, we could be European, British, and Cornish, for example. What the heck could be wrong with that?

By extension we could all be human beings sharing the same planet.
Too far?

coopster_the_1st

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Immediate equals two years. I know for a fact that they have drawn up contingency plans and are wincing at the costs. All will not go to the same financial centre. If there is one thing that banks have in abundance it is office space. Many of these individuals are foreign. Brits could always do a weekly commute.

Is this the same as Nissan if we did not join the Euro?

They have their view and want it followed. They cannot pressure the government to get their way as it is down to the electorate so they are influencing with other means. The cynic in me is coming out but these businesses have made their views clear of what outcome 'they' want.

The bit in bold will be the ultimate deciding factor. And then you say they are going to further add to their costs by de-centralising. I'm sorry but I don't buy it! Despite knowing there was going to be a referendum HSBC have announced they are staying in the UK. I don't see any others moving despite what they say leading into the referendum.

rick_chasey

cycleclinic

The problem is britains idea of persuading other member states that reform is needed is like at a school disco standing at the edge shouting at all the girls will you dance with me and when no one does throw a tantrum and storm off.

Since the tories formed a government in 2010 we have no been engaged in europe we have been pulling away. this is why the reform agenda is not going forward. This is why some see the EU is unreformable. It can be reformed but it requires patient diplomacy. Nothing sudden nothing dramatic, a government willing to play the long game. In other words leadership. the reform agenda require a concenus first about what we want the EU to look like and then to persue that over the next ten years about the time it would take us to untangle our selves from the EU. Both are equally difficult. One however leads to a situation where the entire EU is improved and the U.K is top dog and restores itself to a be a leading nation in the world. Vision + leadership = success. What we have at the moment is disunity + no leadership from anyone + no vision that must = failure. Funny how none on the remain side have a vision, the wrong people are leading it then again I think the wrong people are leading the country.

As I have said many times before all our problems are homegrown but most people don't see this. It is like we are blind.

I talked today with my wife about moving to Denmark or Germany. Scotland is a possibility too and I think an independent scotland is a very likely outcome of a brexit. I am patriot and I would hate to see the country I was born to loose a big chunck of it in my lifetime but there are many in England who either dont care, would welcome it or think it is not even a risk. I see britain as unreformable not the EU and the problem is England. It is the U.K that is at serious risk of breakup not the EU. Our constituational settlement is not stable with or without brexit. Maybe westminster should be more concerned with this rather than membership of the EU. then again we dont elect our MP's to take sensible decisions do we. We seem to elect them to lie to us and distract our attention from the real issues.

Our problems are homegrown and brexit will fix none of them or give us more power to fix the problems that actually need fixing. Our government has all the power it needs to fix these issues but it chooses not too.

briantrumpet

Rick Chasey wrote:

Is it any wonder we are misinformed?

cycleclinic

The EU is not a country. It is a set of instutations through which member states pool/share some soverignty. Member states set the direction of travel and appoint commsioners who through the EU civil service (who subcontract the bulk of the work to member states civil services) to draft laws and standards to meet those goals. the parliment votes on these laws. The ECJ is needed to hold member states to the law and clarify the law where there is a dispute. The European Court of Human Rights is a separate court not related to the EU in anyway. The EU is no more complicated than our own system of government.

However the EU is not described this way here. The language used is simply wrong and it misleads. We have journalists who don't even deserve that title ramming the mistruths down our collective throats. Hence the poll showing the deep misunderstandings about the EU but then again you can do surveys and the public as a whole even me will not be able to correctly identify truths from mistruths about many issues. We are all underinformed and we have a vote. however those that should be more informed (our supposed leaders) seem to be the most uninformed of the lot. There is an irony here.

BelgianBeerGeek

PBlakeney wrote:

BelgianBeerGeek wrote:

Within a European environment, we could be European, British, and Cornish, for example. What the heck could be wrong with that?

By extension we could all be human beings sharing the same planet.
Too far?

Nope. We could all be sharing the same planet. To some extent we do. Just recently re-read Francis Wheens "How Mumbo-Jumbo Conquered the World". In 1914 anyone could go anywhere in the world and make a new life for themselves. The flow of capital was huge. Immigration allows this to happen. Britain was knackered by two world wars and the interim period but somehow Britain grew the most in the after war years, generally with left of centre governments. Since then we have not grown much at all. The rich have grown lots, the rest, not much. The poor have generally gotten much poorer.
Anyway, money, and it's movement is the problem, not where people come from. A while ago I heard that everyone comes here for our amazing benefits. If that is even slightly true, why do we not have 500 million people here lining up for cash?

bompington

BelgianBeerGeek wrote:

The poor have generally gotten much poorer.

How many times do we have to hear this complete untruth?

robbo2011

thecycleclinic wrote:

The problem is britains idea of persuading other member states that reform is needed is like at a school disco standing at the edge shouting at all the girls will you dance with me and when no one does throw a tantrum and storm off.

Since the tories formed a government in 2010 we have no been engaged in europe we have been pulling away. this is why the reform agenda is not going forward. This is why some see the EU is unreformable. It can be reformed but it requires patient diplomacy. Nothing sudden nothing dramatic, a government willing to play the long game. In other words leadership. the reform agenda require a concenus first about what we want the EU to look like and then to persue that over the next ten years about the time it would take us to untangle our selves from the EU. Both are equally difficult. One however leads to a situation where the entire EU is improved and the U.K is top dog and restores itself to a be a leading nation in the world. Vision + leadership = success. What we have at the moment is disunity + no leadership from anyone + no vision that must = failure. Funny how none on the remain side have a vision, the wrong people are leading it then again I think the wrong people are leading the country.

As I have said many times before all our problems are homegrown but most people don't see this. It is like we are blind.

I talked today with my wife about moving to Denmark or Germany. Scotland is a possibility too and I think an independent scotland is a very likely outcome of a brexit. I am patriot and I would hate to see the country I was born to loose a big chunck of it in my lifetime but there are many in England who either dont care, would welcome it or think it is not even a risk. I see britain as unreformable not the EU and the problem is England. It is the U.K that is at serious risk of breakup not the EU. Our constituational settlement is not stable with or without brexit. Maybe westminster should be more concerned with this rather than membership of the EU. then again we dont elect our MP's to take sensible decisions do we. We seem to elect them to lie to us and distract our attention from the real issues.

Our problems are homegrown and brexit will fix none of them or give us more power to fix the problems that actually need fixing. Our government has all the power it needs to fix these issues but it chooses not too.

I agree with what you are saying, but you do realise that post Brexit, you may not be able to easily settle in another EU country due to the abolition of free movement. If you want to move, you had better get on with it.

ballysmate

bompington wrote:

BelgianBeerGeek wrote:

The poor have generally gotten much poorer.

How many times do we have to hear this complete untruth?

It's the lefty mantra.

ballysmate

Join the Euro? How can a single currency fit 28 disparate countries? Rates that suit northern member states don't suit the Med and southern countries do they? Monetary union requires further political union for it to have chance of success. I have voted to stay in, but not as a ringing endorsement of the EU, but rather because the pain of leaving may be worse than staying in for the short term. Cameron's deal to exclude us from any further political union or the need to join the Euro was enough to get me to vote in.

surrey_commuter

BelgianBeerGeek wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

BelgianBeerGeek wrote:

Within a European environment, we could be European, British, and Cornish, for example. What the heck could be wrong with that?

By extension we could all be human beings sharing the same planet.
Too far?

Nope. We could all be sharing the same planet. To some extent we do. Just recently re-read Francis Wheens "How Mumbo-Jumbo Conquered the World". In 1914 anyone could go anywhere in the world and make a new life for themselves. The flow of capital was huge. Immigration allows this to happen. Britain was knackered by two world wars and the interim period but somehow Britain grew the most in the after war years, generally with left of centre governments. Since then we have not grown much at all. The rich have grown lots, the rest, not much. The poor have generally gotten much poorer.
Anyway, money, and it's movement is the problem, not where people come from. A while ago I heard that everyone comes here for our amazing benefits. If that is even slightly true, why do we not have 500 million people here lining up for cash?

Britain grew the most in the after war years, generally with left of centre governments. ????
Labour 1945-50
Tories 1950 - 1964

The poor have generally gotten much poorer.
How are you measuring this?? how many people in this country do not have an inside toilet, or use a tin bath in front of the fire in the kitchen, how many do not have a fridge, how many do not have a car?

rick_chasey

Out of interest, how do the Brexiters envisage the borders of Ireland and Northern Ireland working in a post-Brexit world?

After all, they want to 'control the borders', and the border with Ireland won't just be with Ireland, but the border with the rest of the EU. And to think they would be happy with the UK, out of the EU, allowing people to flood into the EU via Ireland, is pretty fanciful...

briantrumpet

Rick Chasey wrote:

Out of interest, how do the Brexiters envisage the borders of Ireland and Northern Ireland working in a post-Brexit world?

After all, they want to 'control the borders', and the border with Ireland won't just be with Ireland, but the border with the rest of the EU. And to think they would be happy with the UK, out of the EU, allowing people to flood into the EU via Ireland, is pretty fanciful...

Fingers in ears, going "la-la-la, it'll be fine".

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... f-the-mind

orraloon

^ Build the wall, build the wall... And we'll force those Mexicans, delete, Irish to pay for it.

briantrumpet

Here's some interesting logic from Boris:

"As time goes on, I find more and more people can see that Britain would have a great future outside the EU – trading freely with the EU and the rest of the world, while engaging fully at an intergovernmental level with all the political and diplomatic questions in Europe."

I don't suppose he's going to venture how we're going to "trade freely" with a trading bloc we've just said we don't want to be a part of.

coopster_the_1st

Rick Chasey wrote:

Out of interest, how do the Brexiters envisage the borders of Ireland and Northern Ireland working in a post-Brexit world?

After all, they want to 'control the borders', and the border with Ireland won't just be with Ireland, but the border with the rest of the EU. And to think they would be happy with the UK, out of the EU, allowing people to flood into the EU via Ireland, is pretty fanciful...

I think we can see the level of debate amongst the remainers from the responses to your post.

Firstly I think you are trying to find issues where there is not one. At most this will be minor. Wasn't there similar 'risks' when Ireland adopted the Euro?

The Ireland <> NI border agreement has been in place before the EU was even thought of. I'm sure the cooperation between Ireland and the UK will be on great terms in sorting out any glitches that occur. It was only recently that the UK independently of the EU helped Ireland with a bailout when their economy was at risk from the Banking crisis. It will be in both countries interest to do so.

It sounds like your scenario there will be a great boost to Ireland's airports and travel companies with increased passenger numbers

In reality EU nationals will still be travelling all around the UK as visitors so they will have no need to 'slip' in via the Ireland border. What will be required is correct documentation to get work and an NI number. Having this in place will make what you suggested a complete non-issue.

rick_chasey

And what about Republicans going the other way into Ireland?

Are you suggesting that the EU will be OK with free movement of people out of the UK?

If so, presumably they would want at least the movement going the other way too.

In which case, the borders will remain open and the U.K. will lose control of them once again.

The U.K. can't continue with no controls AND take control of the border. both can't be right

pblakeney

Boris wrote:

.... – trading freely with the EU and the rest of the world, while engaging fully at an intergovernmental level with all the political and diplomatic questions in Europe.".........

Maybe they could make this official?
May I propose the EU as a name?