BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
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Pross wrote:To me it's like being a member of a golf club and sitting on the committee, having a few issues with other committee members and the possibility of the club lowering it's membership standards. You decide to leave and make a big deal of the money you'll be saving but you still want to be able to use the course so you opt to pay visitor green fees. To play as regularly as you did before costs the same, you still have to deal with the new lower standard members but you don't have a say on the committee and you're restricted on the available tee times.
I like your golf club analogy except it is missing a few bits:
- Your membership fee is subsiding a number of those other committee members, in fact they are being paid to sit on the committee. Despite this they still have the same voting rights in the club despite some of them putting nothing back into the club
- You've requested the club stops accepting new members as anyone is free to join. This means you have to phone up two weeks in advance to get your usual tee times instead of 2 days previously, there's now always a queue for the bar after the game, the extra load of the course is making look scrubby as it cannot cope with the footfall.
- That this is not the only golf course in the area and you can choose to play at the others. You do not need to be a member to play golf. In fact leave may mean you'll get the chance to play more golf.
- You are one of the best 3 golfers at this club. So good that you influence extends to many other courses e.g. the one where the Australian's play and they would like to spend more time in your company as you improve their games when you do.
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Rick Chasey wrote:Are Brexiters comfortable with sharing the same side as Trump, Le Pen, and Putin, as opposed to Obama, Merkel, and every other Western leader?
I'm not a Brexiteer but I don't think the characters on stage represent either side particularly well. I mean, on the stay side you have Gordon Brown, Cameron, Osborne and Clegg for starters.0 -
Coopster the 1st wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:I really don't get your point. I was making the point that trade with a tiny EU country dwarfs our great white hope trade with BIC countries. I see the point about the air route as stressing the point rather than contradicting it
And why would you expect an Irish referendum?
My point is that there will be huge internal pressure in the EU to negotiate a positive trade deal for both sides. It's either than or have another bail out on their hands.
You are the Irish PM and want a good deal from the UK-EU trade negotiations as your country is reliant on it. You do not want Ireland to be the political cost of EU negotiations. Early on you will let it be known that if the deal that is not favourable to Ireland you will go to the people and allow them their view on the EU.
That is a fair point - maybe they could teach our lot to negotiate.0 -
Coopster the 1st wrote:Pross wrote:To me it's like being a member of a golf club and sitting on the committee, having a few issues with other committee members and the possibility of the club lowering it's membership standards. You decide to leave and make a big deal of the money you'll be saving but you still want to be able to use the course so you opt to pay visitor green fees. To play as regularly as you did before costs the same, you still have to deal with the new lower standard members but you don't have a say on the committee and you're restricted on the available tee times.
I like your golf club analogy except it is missing a few bits:
- Your membership fee is subsiding a number of those other committee members, in fact they are being paid to sit on the committee. Despite this they still have the same voting rights in the club despite some of them putting nothing back into the club
- You've requested the club stops accepting new members as anyone is free to join. This means you have to phone up two weeks in advance to get your usual tee times instead of 2 days previously, there's now always a queue for the bar after the game, the extra load of the course is making look scrubby as it cannot cope with the footfall.
- That this is not the only golf course in the area and you can choose to play at the others. You do not need to be a member to play golf. In fact leave may mean you'll get the chance to play more golf.
- You are one of the best 3 golfers at this club. So good that you influence extends to many other courses e.g. the one where the Australian's play and they would like to spend more time in your company as you improve their games when you do.
Trump buys the club so you get shot of it all and buy a bike and some FTKW lycra, decide to cruise between local coffee shops playing a completely different game with much less aggravation.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Are Brexiters comfortable with sharing the same side as Trump, Le Pen, and Putin, as opposed to Obama, Merkel, and every other Western leader?
Is this like Top trumps?
On the remain side we can list Sinn Féin, Philip Green, Jeremy Corbyn and these people are eligible to vote unlike those that you have listed. Are you happy to be on the same platform as these people?
Let's agree there are unsavoury individuals on both sides of the argument that we are not going to have any agreement with
A serious question, are you eligible to vote in this referendum?0 -
darkhairedlord wrote:finchy wrote:NEVER accurate? That's the biggest exaggeration anyone's ever made.
example when they have been accurate?
I'd say that quite a few of these polls got fairly close to the mark. And these last few before the 2005 election were within a couple of % points for the big parties.0 -
ddraver wrote:when the difference is 49-52, "a couple of percentage points" is quite important though...
Yes, and as I have said above, this a new experience for the polling companies and it's probably very difficult for them to work out weightings.
I think that a small turnout will give the leave campaign a big boost. Many anti-EU types are quite fanatical in their hatred of the organisation, but I've haven't met many people who are really enthusiastically pro-EU. Quite a worrying situation IMO.0 -
Turnout will be key. When the polls as are close as they are you can say it evens not mucn more.
When will this nonsense of trade wont stop is we pull out of the eu stop bekng repeated. Trade will happen in or out of the eu. However speaking as some one who imports goods and sell all over the world it is alot easier selling and buying from the eu while we are in than it is from the rest of the world. That is what affects trade the nature of the barriers. One of the biggest barrier to me buying more from the us is the atlantic ocean it cost alot to bring stuff over. The extra paperwork and the tarrif of 3.6% and 4.7% dont help either. When buying tyres from belgium all i have to worry anout is the exchange rate, there are no commodity codes no paperwork and no tarrifs. Another example is i have to ship a wheel to a chap in norway but i cant because he has not yet provided me his personal id number (it is like a natiomal insurance number) which customs use to charge duties. Yes folks duties and norway is in the single market. Outside of the single market royal mail will levy that £8 charge on goods bought for sending you the VAT bill. All of you who buy from german websites will therefore find everything a bit more expensive outside the single market, unless you are lucky. I never am. I got jot with £21 of vat and royal mail charges for a £70 seatpost bought in the us. Therefore anyone who think trade volumes with the eu wont change out of the single market is living in cloud cookoo land. Any barrier puts a brake on trade. Trade value may still grow but not as quickly. So this talk of trade stopping or not stopping is painting the picture as some binary option which it is not. Nuance is lost and that prevents proper discussion.
Out of the eu i will still buy goods from the eu but barriers may change how much i buy. Exactly what chnage would depend on alot of factors, i simply dont know. I also know i wont be selling more if we come out of the eu unless the pound weakens alot but since all the goods i sell are imported i wont be any better off. Brexit will simply makes bike kit more pricey (price rises on shimano kit have already happened 105 groupsets have gone up in price) and may find it harder (out wont make that easier) to grow eu sales which is a target market for me.
So exactly what is the gain for me and my business. I face no red tape beyond what our own goverment impose on me and migrant nurses and doctors help put my face back together in feb. I also employ a polish gardener. He's quite good and i can afford him. If i had to pay more i would have a wild garden (we have a gardener because my wife hurt her back gardening) i would not pay more. You see restrict migration and some economic activity just does not happen. What applies to me applies to other too i am not special.http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.0 -
I sell a huge amount into the EU and I'm really worried. An italian customer that spends £200k a year with me was telling me today he's investigating other suppliers in Europe. It will probably cost me even if we stay in now as customers have started looking elsewhere in preparation. I'm really quite worried about the future if we vote to leave.0
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finchy wrote:ddraver wrote:when the difference is 49-52, "a couple of percentage points" is quite important though...
Yes, and as I have said above, this a new experience for the polling companies and it's probably very difficult for them to work out weightings.
I think that a small turnout will give the leave campaign a big boost. Many anti-EU types are quite fanatical in their hatred of the organisation, but I've haven't met many people who are really enthusiastically pro-EU. Quite a worrying situation IMO.
Are you really anticipating a low turnout? I reckon it will be higher than General Election levels. Of course, whichever side loses will automatically claim the non-voters would have supported them and keep going on about how 'only 35% voted to leave/remain (delete as appropriate)''.0 -
I wouldn't stake my life on it, but I don't think the question of EU membership is one that will bring 30 million people to the ballot box.0
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The most exciting moment in the process so far, for me, was when the "register to vote" site crashed. People are clearly engaged in this debate and I do expect turnout to be higher than last years GE. A lot more people are expressing opinions through my Facebook feed than I got during the GE, especially students and 20+ age group.0
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Coopster the 1st wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Are Brexiters comfortable with sharing the same side as Trump, Le Pen, and Putin, as opposed to Obama, Merkel, and every other Western leader?
Is this like Top trumps?
On the remain side we can list Sinn Féin, Philip Green, Jeremy Corbyn and these people are eligible to vote unlike those that you have listed. Are you happy to be on the same platform as these people?
Let's agree there are unsavoury individuals on both sides of the argument that we are not going to have any agreement with
A serious question, are you eligible to vote in this referendum?
Putin murders his own critics, rigs elections, imprisons gays and political opponents and invades countries.
Trump wants to ban all Muslims from the nation, and has a national policy that resembles facism and Le Pen is a famously hard right racist party.
And you compare that to who, Corbyn? :roll:
Why would you think I'm not eligible to vote?0 -
If turnout is low I suspect it will be due to people who genuinely can't decide how to vote rather than apathy or the cynicism that all politicians are the same.0
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A low turnout would be 70%. for this it should be 85%. In fact the referdum should be invalid if turnout is below 70%. I would also say all election are invalid if turnout is below 70%. Imagine if your constituancy turnout is 50% the election has to be re run until turnout is high enough. That would wake up polticicans, they have to engage people. no governement can be formed until all MP's are elected with high enough turnout.
that would shake things up. People want to be listened too. this would be one way of doing it. Single issue referendums are a bad way as many issues get conflated into what we are voting for. the referendum is becoming for some a vote of protest against the established order because they feel left behind. this almost has nothing to do with the EU anymore. The referendum is happening because of a failure of politics to address peoples concerns.
Democracy only works when turnout is high. Otherwise it becomes democracy of those motivated to vote and in our system some votes are worth more than others a double whammy and that breeds resentment.
the wrecking ball is swinging what will it topple?http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.0 -
Whatever the result in a couple of weeks time the result will be a watershed in UK politics and society.
If we Leave -
UK Economy will become the equivalent of Guatemala. All businesses will fail. All the banks will shut down or move to Frankfurt. None of us will be able to the Costa Brava. All Expats will be deported and returned to UK. Pensioners will be reduced to begging on the streets. Houses will crumble and fall down. Only cars allowed on the roads will be Austin Allegros and Morris Itals. There will be a massive potato famine and millions will die. The seas will dry up. Planes will fall out of the skies over London. Farmers will be reduced to growing more opium poppies. The national parks will be designated refugee camps. Students will have to pay £250,000 to get a degree and will be forced to serve a 10 year apprenticeship as a barista at Costa Coffee. You won't be able to get your car (if you still have one) washed by an Eastern European at the Sainsburys car park. Cats and Dogs will take over the South West peninsula and declare and independent state for exiled domestic pets. The test of the country will be divided up by the wealthy and the peasants will pay duties and taxes to their new masters. Except Scotland, Wales and Norther Ireland. These will be separated from England and allowed to drift off into the North Atlantic or North Sea. All the doctors and nurses will leave the country and the only health service available will be one box of sticking plasters and packet asprin or paracetamol per 100,000 people. Water will be rationed to one cup each per week, except during the permanent anticipated droughts where it will be changed to sea water from the now toxic English Channel. Gas and electricity will be consigned to history. Books will be banned. All computers will be confiscated. The armed forces and police will be disbanded and it will be ANARCHY IN THE UK!
Vote Remain, you have been warned.
If we Remain -
UK will become the most powerful nation on earth. The UK economy will be the greatest and all nations will adopt the £sterling. No other nation on Earth will dare to veto any proposal by the UK in the EU or UN. Nobody will want to migrate to the UK as they will be given a living wage of £30k as their birth right. China will become subservient to the UK. The RAF will have dozens of bases in the USA with hundreds and hundreds of Typhoon fighter jets. The Royal Navy will have 250 aircraft carriers and 100 Trident submarines. The Army will be 2 million personnel strong and be the best equipped in history, with every soldier having a jet pack and cloaking device. But then again we may not need any armed forces, because the UKs membership of the EU will bring about global peace and harmony to all.
The UK will colonise The Moon, Mars, Titan and have wormhole opening a gateway to the next star system.... all by 2025. Professor Brian Cox will be charged with leading a team of scientists & doctors turned TV presenters to the outer reaches of the Milky Way on a photon powered spaceship (invented and build in 6 months at no cost) to set up trade links with the planet Vulcan and to see if they can strike a peace accord with the Klingons.
The NHS will become the best funded health service in all of history and all citizens of the world will be immunised and injected with medi-nanobots which will enable us to become immortal. All UK citizens will be able to retire straightaway and sit back relax and just enjoy life. Free travel for all. Free food for all. Free everything. The UK, Europe and the World will be Nirvana. All religions will be consigned to history and a new deity will be born.... Cameron. The saviour of the world.
All this can be yours just so long as you are not stupid enough to vote Leave.Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.0 -
Welsh devolution was decided by 51% of a 50% turnout. No challenge was issued to the result (but maybe the Welsh were too apathetic to protest). Btw, I'm a Welshman living in England, and didn't get a vote.
I can't remember the figures for the Scottish devolution vote on the same day, but they got a much higher turnout and a much bigger majority. I think this is more likely to be like the Scottish devolution vote in turnout.0 -
Is that one of Goo's more reasonable posts on this subject? ;-)0
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Veronese68 wrote:Is that one of Goo's more reasonable posts on this subject? ;-)
FOR THE BENEFIT OF SURREY COMMUTER. IT IS MY OPINION BASED ON MY OBSERVATION OF THE CLAIMS MADE BY BOTH SIDES. I BELIEVE THAT EITHER SCENARIO WILL BE THE OUTCOME FROM THE CLAIMS MADE BY BOTH CAMPAIGNS.
Btw did I forget that if we vote to Remain, that in the next 12 months British scientists will have harnessed the power of the sun to provide free energy for the world. However if we vote Leave, the skies will cloud over and the UK will experience a permanent winter.
Now going back to my padded cell, which we will all be confined to if we vote Leave or Remain. Feck, feck! Which way am I supposed to vote ?Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.0 -
Calm down dear, I was pulling your leg. I hope you realise I still am.
As I've said before the general scaremongering and type of campaigning used by both sides is dreadful. Your post could easily be reversed to show the nirvana if we leave and how we will drown in a flood of immigrants if we stay.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Why would you think I'm not eligible to vote?
Because you are a Dutchman and moved to London some time ago. This means there is a process(es) that need to be followed for you to be eligible to vote so I'm asking if you have done the required? Only needs a Yes or No answer
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Mr Goo wrote:Veronese68 wrote:Is that one of Goo's more reasonable posts on this subject? ;-)
FOR THE BENEFIT OF SURREY COMMUTER. IT IS MY OPINION BASED ON MY OBSERVATION OF THE CLAIMS MADE BY BOTH SIDES. I BELIEVE THAT EITHER SCENARIO WILL BE THE OUTCOME FROM THE CLAIMS MADE BY BOTH CAMPAIGNS.
Btw did I forget that if we vote to Remain, that in the next 12 months British scientists will have harnessed the power of the sun to provide free energy for the world. However if we vote Leave, the skies will cloud over and the UK will experience a permanent winter.
Now going back to my padded cell, which we will all be confined to if we vote Leave or Remain. Feck, feck! Which way am I supposed to vote ?
far too long to read but I am guessing that it says all of the experts are wrong and that in Goo's opinion everything will be fine if we leave0 -
Quite the reverse, leave would lead to the end of the world remain would be perfection. I'm almost certain it was tongue in cheek. But it does highlight the extremes that both sides are coming up with.Surrey Commuter wrote:far too long to read but I am guessing that it says all of the experts are wrong and that in Goo's opinion everything will be fine if we leave0 -
Coopster the 1st wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Why would you think I'm not eligible to vote?
Because you are a Dutchman and moved to London some time ago. This means there is a process(es) that need to be followed for you to be eligible to vote so I'm asking if you have done the required? Only needs a Yes or No answer
I moved to the UK when I was very young and my father is English.
I'm now late 20s, and I, much to my regret, I had to rescind my Dutch nationality in order to be able to vote in UK elections and attend UK university without incurring rather large fees.
So yes, I am eligible.0 -
Veronese68 wrote:
Quite the reverse, leave would lead to the end of the world remain would be perfection. I'm almost certain it was tongue in cheek. But it does highlight the extremes that both sides are coming up with.Surrey Commuter wrote:far too long to read but I am guessing that it says all of the experts are wrong and that in Goo's opinion everything will be fine if we leave
if we can talk him around there is hope yet.
You (and cycleclinic) introduced rational debate with your real life demonstration of how this whole thing effects SMEs but nobody was interested0 -
I know this list is a little selective but isn't everything in this debate?Here are a few that strongly believe the UK should remain a member of the EU:
• Governor of the Bank of England
• International Monetary Fund
• Institute for Fiscal Studies
• Confederation of British Industry
• Leaders/heads of state of every single other member of the EU • President of the United States of America • Eight former US Treasury Secretaries • President of China • Prime Minister of India • Prime Minister of Canada • Prime Minister of Australia • Prime Minister of Japan • Prime Minister of New Zealand • The chief executives of most of the top 100 companies in the UK including Marks and Spencer, BT, Asda, Vodafone, Virgin, IBM, BMW etc.
• Kofi Annan, the former Secretary General of the United Nations • All living former Prime Ministers of the UK (from both parties) • Virtually all reputable and recognised economists • The Prime Minister of the UK • The leader of the Labour Party • The Leader of the Liberal Democrats • The Leader of the Green Party • The Leader of the Scottish National Party • The leader of Plaid Cymru • Leader of Sinn Fein • Martin Lewis, that money saving dude off the telly • The Secretary General of the TUC • Unison • National Union of Students • National Union of Farmers • Stephen Hawking • Chief Executive of the NHS • 300 of the most prominent international historians • Director of Europol • David Anderson QC, Independent Reviewer of Terrorism Legislation • Former Directors of GCHQ • Secretary General of Nato • Church of England • Church in Scotland • Church in Wales • Friends of the Earth • Greenpeace • Director General of the World Trade Organisation • WWF • World Bank • OECD • Sir David Attenborough
Here are pretty much the only notable people who think we should leave the EU:
• Boris Johnson, who probably doesn’t really care either way, but knows he’ll become Prime Minister if the country votes to leave • A former Secretary of State for Work and Pensions who carried out a brutal regime of cuts to benefits and essential support for the poorest in society as well as the disabled and sick • That idiot that was Education Secretary and every single teacher in the country hated with a furious passion for the damage he was doing to the education system • Leader of UKIP • BNP • Britain First • Donald Trump • Keith Chegwin • David Icke0 -
He sent me an e-mail saying he would give me $3 million if I gave him my bank details.Veronese68 wrote:....• Kofi Annan, the former Secretary General of the United Nations • .....
Dodgy fellow.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0
