BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    And what about Republicans going the other way into Ireland?

    Are you suggesting that the EU will be OK with free movement of people out of the UK?

    If so, presumably they would want at least the movement going the other way too.

    In which case, the borders will remain open and the U.K. will lose control of them once again.

    The U.K. can't continue with no controls AND take control of the border. both can't be right

    Have you not noticed there is already a special relationship with Ireland and the UK? How else do Irish Nationals resident in the UK have a vote in this referendum?

    Just like the above special case, I'm sure it will be easily negotiated even if Ireland have to add it to any leave agreement between the EU/UK. But it is a non-issue in the scheme of the referendum that you are trying to make important.

    It would be like me talking about a remain vote meaning that would be a green light for joining the Euro. It's a non-issue because it will not become one.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    But the Irish border is the EU border. You would have to get all members to agree.

    And many wouldn't. For the same reasons this is an issue in the Brexit debate.
    _
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    briantrumpet wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Out of interest, how do the Brexiters envisage the borders of Ireland and Northern Ireland working in a post-Brexit world?

    After all, they want to 'control the borders', and the border with Ireland won't just be with Ireland, but the border with the rest of the EU. And to think they would be happy with the UK, out of the EU, allowing people to flood into the EU via Ireland, is pretty fanciful...
    Fingers in ears, going "la-la-la, it'll be fine".

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre ... f-the-mind

    From the above article:
    A post-Brexit government would not be likely to give priority to Irish interests, north or south.

    One false assumption amongst many in the article. When has a UK govt. not been committed to Northern Ireland and the Irish peace process?

    A vote to leave does not put UKIP in charge, the mainstream parties are committed to a constructive trading relationship with Europe whatever happens, which will include talks on "border controls" or more likely access to benefits for EU citizens working in Britain. As Coopster points out, we had a special relationship with RoI before EEC membership and ever since we joined.
  • Lookyhere
    Lookyhere Posts: 987
    its a pretty fragile peace process in NI but perhaps of more interest is Spain and Gibraltar.

    Gib relies very heavily of the free flow of goods and people and Spain has shown some willingness in the past to get back control of the 'Rock.

    Your phrase "talks on border controls" tells me everything, leaving is a gamble and based on an optimistic view of what the world and what the eu will agree too.
  • darkhairedlord
    darkhairedlord Posts: 7,180
    The end is nigh with Brexit
    The end is nigh with Bremain.

    Either way we will end up with a different UK and relationship with the EU and the ROTW; whether that is actually a good or bad future has NOTHING to do with in or out and EVERYTHING to do with what we do after.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    PBlakeney wrote:
    Boris wrote:
    .... – trading freely with the EU and the rest of the world, while engaging fully at an intergovernmental level with all the political and diplomatic questions in Europe.".........
    Maybe they could make this official?
    May I propose the EU as a name?
    Quite. Swift's Modest Proposal has more coherent logic than Boris's less modest one, though it wouldn't surprise me if Farage claimed that foreigners are wanting to come into the UK and eat babies.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • darkhairedlord
    darkhairedlord Posts: 7,180
    JELLYBABIES_2896790b.jpg
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    darkhairedlord wrote:
    JELLYBABIES_2896790b.jpg
    Obviously foreign babies, in an identity parade, for Stealing Our Jobs.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    One of the problems with being in a big multi-national body like the EU is that when a Prime Minister makes a statement at conference or in parliament about what he wants from the EU negotiation, his position is just the opening negotiating statement in the process. Once he goes into the negotiations, there is always give and take and he/she will always come back with less than they set out to get.

    There was a massive amount of threats to Scotland about not keeping the pound and not getting North Sea Oli revenues, but we ended up promising them a lot of extra power in the Devo+ package in order to persuade them to stay. The opening negatives were just a negotiating position.

    The threats of a minority of EU officials re: Brexit do not take into account the domestic pressures that national leaders will be under to agree a decent trade deal. They can be viewed as a bargaining position.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    briantrumpet wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    Boris wrote:
    .... – trading freely with the EU and the rest of the world, while engaging fully at an intergovernmental level with all the political and diplomatic questions in Europe.".........
    Maybe they could make this official?
    May I propose the EU as a name?
    Quite. Swift's Modest Proposal has more coherent logic than Boris's less modest one, though it wouldn't surprise me if Farage claimed that foreigners are wanting to come into the UK and eat babies.

    Did you see David Aaronovitch's modest proposal on the migrant crisis in the Times? I thought at the time that some might not think it ridiculous.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,349
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    Did you see David Aaronovitch's modest proposal on the migrant crisis in the Times? I thought at the time that some might not think it ridiculous.
    Haven't read Aaronovitch since he left The Independent. Won't read The Times any more than I'll read The Sun. Murdoch, innit.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    And what about Republicans going the other way into Ireland?

    Are you suggesting that the EU will be OK with free movement of people out of the UK?

    If so, presumably they would want at least the movement going the other way too.

    In which case, the borders will remain open and the U.K. will lose control of them once again.

    The U.K. can't continue with no controls AND take control of the border. both can't be right

    Seems it could open a real can of worms.... for those who can't be bothered to read the article hear are the main points Interesting point in this article that we export more to Ireland than we do Brazil, China and India combined :shock: also the border arrangements will have to be agreed by all EU countries.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/2 ... about-most
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    And what about Republicans going the other way into Ireland?

    Are you suggesting that the EU will be OK with free movement of people out of the UK?

    If so, presumably they would want at least the movement going the other way too.

    In which case, the borders will remain open and the U.K. will lose control of them once again.

    The U.K. can't continue with no controls AND take control of the border. both can't be right

    Seems it could open a real can of worms.... for those who can't be bothered to read the article hear are the main points Interesting point in this article that we export more to Ireland than we do Brazil, China and India combined :shock: also the border arrangements will have to be agreed by all EU countries.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/2 ... about-most

    To remove the skew of the bold bit(I don't understand why you did not quote the whole sentence?) and display both sides, below is the full couple of sentences that demonstrate how close UK - Ireland are in terms of trade:

    Britain is Ireland’s biggest export market, and Britain exports more to Ireland than to China, India and Brazil combined. Dublin to London is the world’s second-busiest international air route (after Hong Kong to Taipei).

    I did not know that about the Dublin to London air route also.

    It just adds more weight to the argument that we would not be cast adrift in trade negotiations as it is another country pushing for good terms for the UK as it is in their and therefore the EU's interest.

    As a side note, I would also expect an Irish referendum on EU membership as I'm sure the Irish would want to confirm their commitment or not to the EU project
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,398
    Latest polls show increasing support for 'Leave' - now neck and neck according to the latest FT poll.
    https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

    Given the margin for error, this is going to be a nail biting final 10 days.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • darkhairedlord
    darkhairedlord Posts: 7,180
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Latest polls show increasing support for 'Leave' - now neck and neck according to the latest FT poll.
    https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

    Given the margin for error, this is going to be a nail biting final 10 days.
    Polls are never accurate. The betting odds however are generally closer to the final result and have been shortening for exit over the past two weeks but still favour remain.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    Apologies if this has already been posted, I've lost track. For some reason the exiteers who quote Norway and Switzerland as examples of what they want seem to completely ignore the point though.

    http://www.squareonelaw.com/announcements/eu-referendum-know-the-facts/#.V1hzahYR5KP.facebook

    To me it's like being a member of a golf club and sitting on the committee, having a few issues with other committee members and the possibility of the club lowering it's membership standards. You decide to leave and make a big deal of the money you'll be saving but you still want to be able to use the course so you opt to pay visitor green fees. To play as regularly as you did before costs the same, you still have to deal with the new lower standard members but you don't have a say on the committee and you're restricted on the available tee times.
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    A couple of pages back I picked out Donald Tusk as one of the more reasonable voices within the EU. Seems he has been seized by "Brexit Fever" as well:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... ting-story
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    edited June 2016
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    And what about Republicans going the other way into Ireland?

    Are you suggesting that the EU will be OK with free movement of people out of the UK?

    If so, presumably they would want at least the movement going the other way too.

    In which case, the borders will remain open and the U.K. will lose control of them once again.

    The U.K. can't continue with no controls AND take control of the border. both can't be right

    Seems it could open a real can of worms.... for those who can't be bothered to read the article hear are the main points Interesting point in this article that we export more to Ireland than we do Brazil, China and India combined :shock: also the border arrangements will have to be agreed by all EU countries.

    http://www.economist.com/news/britain/2 ... about-most

    To remove the skew of the bold bit(I don't understand why you did not quote the whole sentence?) and display both sides, below is the full couple of sentences that demonstrate how close UK - Ireland are in terms of trade:

    Britain is Ireland’s biggest export market, and Britain exports more to Ireland than to China, India and Brazil combined. Dublin to London is the world’s second-busiest international air route (after Hong Kong to Taipei).

    I did not know that about the Dublin to London air route also.

    It just adds more weight to the argument that we would not be cast adrift in trade negotiations as it is another country pushing for good terms for the UK as it is in their and therefore the EU's interest.

    As a side note, I would also expect an Irish referendum on EU membership as I'm sure the Irish would want to confirm their commitment or not to the EU project

    I really don't get your point. I was making the point that trade with a tiny EU country dwarfs our great white hope trade with BIC countries. I see the point about the air route as stressing the point rather than contradicting it

    And why would you expect an Irish referendum?
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    darkhairedlord wrote:
    The end is nigh with Brexit
    The end is nigh with Bremain.

    Either way we will end up with a different UK and relationship with the EU and the ROTW; whether that is actually a good or bad future has NOTHING to do with in or out and EVERYTHING to do with what we do after.

    I think you have missed the point. If we Bremain nothing changes. If we leave it changes a lot and we will be dependent on what others chose to do.
  • darkhairedlord
    darkhairedlord Posts: 7,180
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    darkhairedlord wrote:
    The end is nigh with Brexit
    The end is nigh with Bremain.

    Either way we will end up with a different UK and relationship with the EU and the ROTW; whether that is actually a good or bad future has NOTHING to do with in or out and EVERYTHING to do with what we do after.

    I think you have missed the point. If we Bremain nothing changes. If we leave it changes a lot and we will be dependent on what others chose to do.

    No, if we remain things will change. If there was never even any talk of a referendum things would also change. There is no "static-state"; we can't freeze time. Society has always changed, The UK and Europe today look nothing like they did 20 years ago, the same can be said of countries both inside and outside of the EU. Being in or out probably makes less difference than all the hullabaloo suggests. It's just another way blaming the plebs for making the wrong decision while we get rolled.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,398
    darkhairedlord wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Latest polls show increasing support for 'Leave' - now neck and neck according to the latest FT poll.
    https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

    Given the margin for error, this is going to be a nail biting final 10 days.
    Polls are never accurate. The betting odds however are generally closer to the final result and have been shortening for exit over the past two weeks but still favour remain.
    I know the polls are never accurate...
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    NEVER accurate? That's the biggest exaggeration anyone's ever made.

    Anyway, this is a new situation for the polling companies, I suppose it must be hard polling for a referendum in a country which barely ever uses them, especially as we'll probably end up with a really low turnout anyway.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,398
    edited June 2016
    finchy wrote:
    NEVER accurate? That's the biggest exaggeration anyone's ever made.

    Anyway, this is a new situation for the polling companies, I suppose it must be hard polling for a referendum in a country which barely ever uses them, especially as we'll probably end up with a really low turnout anyway.
    Don't worry finchy, I'm just teaching someone to read posts properly.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    A fun question for the remainers based on Gordon Browns outing today:

    If the answer is Gordon Brown, what the hell was the question?

    :shock:

    :lol:
  • darkhairedlord
    darkhairedlord Posts: 7,180
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    darkhairedlord wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Latest polls show increasing support for 'Leave' - now neck and neck according to the latest FT poll.
    https://ig.ft.com/sites/brexit-polling/

    Given the margin for error, this is going to be a nail biting final 10 days.
    Polls are never accurate. The betting odds however are generally closer to the final result and have been shortening for exit over the past two weeks but still favour remain.
    I know the polls are never accurate...

    something to agree on then...
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    edited June 2016
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    I really don't get your point. I was making the point that trade with a tiny EU country dwarfs our great white hope trade with BIC countries. I see the point about the air route as stressing the point rather than contradicting it

    And why would you expect an Irish referendum?

    My point is that there will be huge internal pressure in the EU to negotiate a positive trade deal for both sides. It's either that or have another bail out on their hands.

    You are the Irish PM and want a good deal from the UK-EU trade negotiations as your country is reliant on it. You do not want Ireland to be the political cost of EU negotiations. Early on you will let it be known that if the deal that is not favourable to Ireland you will go to the people and allow them their view on the EU.
  • darkhairedlord
    darkhairedlord Posts: 7,180
    finchy wrote:
    NEVER accurate? That's the biggest exaggeration anyone's ever made.

    example when they have been accurate?
  • darkhairedlord
    darkhairedlord Posts: 7,180
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    I really don't get your point. I was making the point that trade with a tiny EU country dwarfs our great white hope trade with BIC countries. I see the point about the air route as stressing the point rather than contradicting it

    And why would you expect an Irish referendum?

    My point is that there will be huge internal pressure in the EU to negotiate a positive trade deal for both sides. It's either than or have another bail out on their hands.

    You are the Irish PM and want a good deal from the UK-EU trade negotiations as your country is reliant on it. You do not want Ireland to be the political cost of EU negotiations. Early on you will let it be known that if the deal that is not favourable to Ireland you will go to the people and allow them their view on the EU.

    Short of the Germans or French sending troops to Ireland to police the border I don't see anything to stop trade between Ireland and the UK.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Are Brexiters comfortable with sharing the same side as Trump, Le Pen, and Putin, as opposed to Obama, Merkel, and every other Western leader?
    _
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,327
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Are Brexiters comfortable with sharing the same side as Trump, Le Pen, and Putin, as opposed to Obama, Merkel, and every other Western leader?
    That's a tad desperate, assuming you mean post Brexit.
    There will be an election. Boris et all will not be elected.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.

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