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BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • Stevo_666Stevo_666 Posts: 49,323
    edited 13 January
    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:
    There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?

    Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.

    It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.

    Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021

    Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.

    As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.


    Q2:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021

    In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.

    This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
    I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.
    Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.


    A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.

    The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 16,151

    Also the idea that your Far Eastern business is going to go to London and not say, HK or Singers, or your American business is going to go to London and not somewhere in New York or Chicago or LA.

    Yes, it is on a par with thinking that business is going to go to Frankfurt or Dublin.
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 15,836
    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:
    There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?

    Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.

    It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.

    Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021

    Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.

    As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.


    Q2:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021

    In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.

    This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
    I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.
    Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.


    A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.

    The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
    I have no idea how it works so maybe somebody could tell us if a company in Mexico looking for bank/lawyer/consultant is as likely to turn to London as a company in Holland.
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 19,076

    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:
    There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?

    Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.

    It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.

    Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021

    Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.

    As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.


    Q2:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021

    In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.

    This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
    I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.
    Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.


    A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.

    The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
    I have no idea how it works so maybe somebody could tell us if a company in Mexico looking for bank/lawyer/consultant is as likely to turn to London as a company in Holland.
    Would depend on the industry.
    Some may think Mexico to Amsterdam has big advantages. 😉
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rjsterryrjsterry Posts: 22,311
    Stevo_666 said:

    rjsterry said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Stevo_666 said:
    There must have been another quarter of results since that article - still holding up well?

    Edit: not according to the updated version of the source for that article.

    It's a fascinating insight into the writing of these ONS reports to see the same thing being referenced to explain completely opposite movements.

    Q1: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/july2021

    Financial services have seen growth in exports to EU countries of £0.08 billion (1.4%) and a reduction in imports from EU countries by £0.57 billion (35.2%) in Quarter 1 2021 compared with Quarter 1 2019.

    As part of the TCA, administrative barriers and limitations faced by EU and UK investors, service suppliers and business travellers are kept to a minimum. This may encourage trade in services and may have contributed to the growth in financial services exports to the EU.


    Q2:
    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/theimpactsofeuexitandcoronaviruscovid19onuktradeinservices/november2021

    In Quarter 2 (April to June) 2021, trade in financial services declined for both exports and imports by £1.5 billion (negative 9.7%) and £0.3 billion (negative 6.3%) respectively compared with Quarter 2 2019. Non-EU exports increased £0.5 billion (5.1%) and imports £0.01 billion (0.4%) since Quarter 2 2019, whereas EU exports and imports declined £2.0 billion (negative 30.6%) and £0.3 billion (negative 21.3%) respectively.

    This fall in financial services trade with the EU is partly because of EU exit-related rule changes, with the UK-EU Trade and Co-operation Agreement (TCA) containing limited provision for access in financial services.
    I'm waiting for the 2021 stats tbh. It is worth remembering that the City's main opportunities lie outside the EU, given that the EU only represents around 13% of the global economy (and shrinking). So will be interesting to see the overall, picture, while remembering that covid may also have a negative effect impact all round.
    Depends what you sell, but 1/7 is hardly trivial. But let's pretend the green bit doesn't matter.


    A bit of context is needed sometimes. Nobody said it doesn't matter, but it is far from the be all and end all that the Brexit debate might lead some people to believe.

    The other 6/7ths is a pretty significant, no?
    Well obviously, but as I said, it depends what you are selling.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Liberal metropolitan, remoaner, traitor, "sympathiser", etc.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 60,955 Lives Here

    Also the idea that your Far Eastern business is going to go to London and not say, HK or Singers, or your American business is going to go to London and not somewhere in New York or Chicago or LA.

    Yes, it is on a par with thinking that business is going to go to Frankfurt or Dublin.
    It already is for regulatory reasons, you can see the difference, no?
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 16,151

    Also the idea that your Far Eastern business is going to go to London and not say, HK or Singers, or your American business is going to go to London and not somewhere in New York or Chicago or LA.

    Yes, it is on a par with thinking that business is going to go to Frankfurt or Dublin.
    It already is for regulatory reasons, you can see the difference, no?
    Not really, no. A few bods perhaps, but I would only go to Frankfurt or Dublin if I was working on something specific to those countries, and I'd expect it to be hard work.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 60,955 Lives Here

    Also the idea that your Far Eastern business is going to go to London and not say, HK or Singers, or your American business is going to go to London and not somewhere in New York or Chicago or LA.

    Yes, it is on a par with thinking that business is going to go to Frankfurt or Dublin.
    It already is for regulatory reasons, you can see the difference, no?
    Not really, no. A few bods perhaps, but I would only go to Frankfurt or Dublin if I was working on something specific to those countries, and I'd expect it to be hard work.
    So we're working with a $500+bn North American asset manager who is looking to set up a new office in Europe - mainly for distribution to European clients.

    Talking 5-10 senior hires. Categorically will not open it in London. Regardless of the talent pool. Compliance says a big fat no.

    That is a common theme since Jan last year.

    They'll open anywhere within the EU, depending on who the best candidate is to lead it. But not London.
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 16,151
    Different industries. Every fund I come across is already outside the UK.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 60,955 Lives Here
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2022/jan/14/intoxicating-insidery-and-infuriating-everything-i-learned-about-dominic-cummings-from-his-10-a-month-blog

    This is actually really good. Basically a politics professor at Cambridge has a subbie to Cummings' blogs and gives us what he's learned.

    Really interesting.

  • ddraverddraver Posts: 24,064
    edited 14 January


    As I got sick of saying to people while at TSS - You want to be sourcing your materials from the EU now, not GB...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 17,371
    Outrage in NI this morning as it's confirmed the government will be changing the rules to allow MPs to sit as MLAs and vice versa.

    Clear benefit to the DUP as it means Jeffrey Donaldson can run as an MLA without risking a potentially risky Upper Bann Westminster by-election.

    Smaller Unionist parties also demanding to know what the DUP have conceded in return

    As a side note, it had been noted how quiet the DUP had been on partygate.
    Believe that a farther shore
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  • focuszing723focuszing723 Posts: 3,340
    What is the EU's stance towards the situation with Putin and the Ukraine?
  • ballysmateballysmate Posts: 15,903

    What is the EU's stance towards the situation with Putin and the Ukraine?

    Not asked for an opinion by neither Russia or the US, so their stance is pretty irrelevant.
  • focuszing723focuszing723 Posts: 3,340

    What is the EU's stance towards the situation with Putin and the Ukraine?

    Not asked for an opinion by neither Russia or the US, so their stance is pretty irrelevant.
    Hang on, doesn't the Ukraine want to apply to join the EU 2024?
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 15,836

    What is the EU's stance towards the situation with Putin and the Ukraine?

    Probably an apocryphal story but relevant

    Winston Churchill suggested to Stalin the possibility of the Pope being associated with some of the decisions taken at the recent Teheran conference. “The Pope?” said Stalin thoughtfully. “The Pope? How many divisions has he?”
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 19,076

    What is the EU's stance towards the situation with Putin and the Ukraine?

    Not asked for an opinion by neither Russia or the US, so their stance is pretty irrelevant.
    Hang on, doesn't the Ukraine want to apply to join the EU 2024?
    The Ukraine will have to continue to exist first.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • ballysmateballysmate Posts: 15,903

    What is the EU's stance towards the situation with Putin and the Ukraine?

    Not asked for an opinion by neither Russia or the US, so their stance is pretty irrelevant.
    Hang on, doesn't the Ukraine want to apply to join the EU 2024?
    The EU has been courting Ukraine and Putin saw this as another domino falling from his sphere of influence.

    https://reader.elsevier.com/reader/sd/pii/S2212567114000276?token=43D8C21070EC7819B9B249EF7D796C47FC9EB28ED469F7B201ECCBF2FDA822B4F1C1B214367023915FD215F80F64051E&originRegion=eu-west-1&originCreation=20220118150432

    For the EU Ukraine is a major, strategic political and economic partner.

    Vlad no likey.
  • focuszing723focuszing723 Posts: 3,340
    Russia is fookin massive too, they've got like well loads of land with all sort of cool minerals. Their population is only 144 million, according to my Google brain, that equates to a lot of land per person.
  • focuszing723focuszing723 Posts: 3,340

    Look, massive.
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 19,076


    Look, massive.

    A lot of it is fookin cold though.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • ballysmateballysmate Posts: 15,903

    Russia is fookin massive too, they've got like well loads of land with all sort of cool minerals. Their population is only 144 million, according to my Google brain, that equates to a lot of land per person.

    Yep a lot of land per person.
    I bet some of that land is pretty cheap as well.

    https://weather.com/travel/news/breathtaking-photos-coldest-city-world-20140128
  • focuszing723focuszing723 Posts: 3,340
    pblakeney said:


    Look, massive.

    A lot of it is fookin cold though.
    Sochi looked lush and the globe is supposed to be warming, so they could be ruble in.
  • focuszing723focuszing723 Posts: 3,340
    I did notice we don't look so massive, which is unfortunate.
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 19,076

    I did notice we don't look so massive, which is unfortunate.

    People should look at that more often to get perspective of how great Britain is.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 60,955 Lives Here
    pblakeney said:

    I did notice we don't look so massive, which is unfortunate.

    People should look at that more often to get perspective of how great Britain is.
    Better with Eckerts 4 projection

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eckert_IV_projection

    If I were a king for a day I’d force all default world projections to be that.

    (Area of the nations is proportional to actual area, at expensive of accuracy of the outline/shape)
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 60,955 Lives Here
    pblakeney said:

    I did notice we don't look so massive, which is unfortunate.

    People should look at that more often to get perspective of how great Britain is.
    Better with Eckerts 4 projection

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eckert_IV_projection

    If I were a king for a day I’d force all default world projections to be that.

    (Area of the nations is proportional to actual area, at expensive of accuracy of the outline/shape)
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 16,151
    Go wild and get a globe.
  • focuszing723focuszing723 Posts: 3,340
    edited 18 January

    You know your Countries small when you can't even make out the flag.
  • pblakeneypblakeney Posts: 19,076

    Go wild and get a globe.

    Only if it is a drinks cabinet for parties business meetings.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
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