BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Dec to Nov in both would be a rational comparison. There's enough post Brexit in that period to show any real deviation, without any excuse of stockpiling. Or March to Nov in both.

    March onwards would make more sense, but it may need to be seasonally adjusted. There was clearly a reduction in trade in Jan 2021 even considering the stockpiling. It was news in Feb. It doesn't need to be continually reported as new analysis.
    I am in no way an expert but don't these monthly figures bounce around?

    Logic would suggest that there would be an initial drop and then gradual drops as business found less inefficient way of doing things.

    The concept that increasing barriers to trade could increase the level of trade is one that I find fascinating. Ignoring the text books just think of what would happen to international trade policy. How quickly would countries be able to tear up trade deals so that they could erect tariffs and non-tariff barriers to boost trade?
    Clearly more trade barriers should reduce trade. What annoys me is the constant misrepresentation of the data to show a far greater impact.
    Well it is a step up from the pictures of queues of lorries but the reality is that for the media they report in a way that the majority of their consumers can relate to
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Dec to Nov in both would be a rational comparison. There's enough post Brexit in that period to show any real deviation, without any excuse of stockpiling. Or March to Nov in both.

    March onwards would make more sense, but it may need to be seasonally adjusted. There was clearly a reduction in trade in Jan 2021 even considering the stockpiling. It was news in Feb. It doesn't need to be continually reported as new analysis.
    I am in no way an expert but don't these monthly figures bounce around?

    Logic would suggest that there would be an initial drop and then gradual drops as business found less inefficient way of doing things.

    The concept that increasing barriers to trade could increase the level of trade is one that I find fascinating. Ignoring the text books just think of what would happen to international trade policy. How quickly would countries be able to tear up trade deals so that they could erect tariffs and non-tariff barriers to boost trade?
    Clearly more trade barriers should reduce trade. What annoys me is the constant misrepresentation of the data to show a far greater impact.
    Well it is a step up from the pictures of queues of lorries but the reality is that for the media they report in a way that the majority of their consumers can relate to
    Think of the £350m a week that is currently being saved!
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Dec to Nov in both would be a rational comparison. There's enough post Brexit in that period to show any real deviation, without any excuse of stockpiling. Or March to Nov in both.

    March onwards would make more sense, but it may need to be seasonally adjusted. There was clearly a reduction in trade in Jan 2021 even considering the stockpiling. It was news in Feb. It doesn't need to be continually reported as new analysis.
    I am in no way an expert but don't these monthly figures bounce around?

    Logic would suggest that there would be an initial drop and then gradual drops as business found less inefficient way of doing things.

    The concept that increasing barriers to trade could increase the level of trade is one that I find fascinating. Ignoring the text books just think of what would happen to international trade policy. How quickly would countries be able to tear up trade deals so that they could erect tariffs and non-tariff barriers to boost trade?
    If anyone's interested, it only took me a couple of minutes to get the numbers clicking through from that tweet to Germany's stats.

    For each month, Exports from Germany to UK 2020 v 2021:

    January -28.13%
    February -11.66%
    March -12.36%
    April 63.94%
    May 45.80%
    June 11.18%
    July 7.82%
    August -15.15%
    September -10.02%
    October -11.47%
    November -4.91%

    For March to November, up 2.35%

    Worth bearing in mind that Jan to Nov 2020 was 16% down on 2019, so the whole set of numbers are a complete mix of factors. Every month in 2020 was lower than 2019 except Nov and Dec.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Dec to Nov in both would be a rational comparison. There's enough post Brexit in that period to show any real deviation, without any excuse of stockpiling. Or March to Nov in both.

    March onwards would make more sense, but it may need to be seasonally adjusted. There was clearly a reduction in trade in Jan 2021 even considering the stockpiling. It was news in Feb. It doesn't need to be continually reported as new analysis.
    I am in no way an expert but don't these monthly figures bounce around?

    Logic would suggest that there would be an initial drop and then gradual drops as business found less inefficient way of doing things.

    The concept that increasing barriers to trade could increase the level of trade is one that I find fascinating. Ignoring the text books just think of what would happen to international trade policy. How quickly would countries be able to tear up trade deals so that they could erect tariffs and non-tariff barriers to boost trade?
    Clearly more trade barriers should reduce trade. What annoys me is the constant misrepresentation of the data to show a far greater impact.
    Well it is a step up from the pictures of queues of lorries but the reality is that for the media they report in a way that the majority of their consumers can relate to
    Think of the £350m a week that is currently being saved!
    maybe that is what has driven the cost of living down
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    kingstongraham said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Dec to Nov in both would be a rational comparison. There's enough post Brexit in that period to show any real deviation, without any excuse of stockpiling. Or March to Nov in both.

    March onwards would make more sense, but it may need to be seasonally adjusted. There was clearly a reduction in trade in Jan 2021 even considering the stockpiling. It was news in Feb. It doesn't need to be continually reported as new analysis.
    I am in no way an expert but don't these monthly figures bounce around?

    Logic would suggest that there would be an initial drop and then gradual drops as business found less inefficient way of doing things.

    The concept that increasing barriers to trade could increase the level of trade is one that I find fascinating. Ignoring the text books just think of what would happen to international trade policy. How quickly would countries be able to tear up trade deals so that they could erect tariffs and non-tariff barriers to boost trade?
    If anyone's interested, it only took me a couple of minutes to get the numbers clicking through from that tweet to Germany's stats.

    For each month, Exports from Germany to UK 2020 v 2021:

    January -28.13%
    February -11.66%
    March -12.36%
    April 63.94%
    May 45.80%
    June 11.18%
    July 7.82%
    August -15.15%
    September -10.02%
    October -11.47%
    November -4.91%

    For March to November, up 2.35%

    Worth bearing in mind that Jan to Nov 2020 was 16% down on 2019, so the whole set of numbers are a complete mix of factors. Every month in 2020 was lower than 2019 except Nov and Dec.
    As it was a comparison that was being looked at, the equivalent for March to November for exports from Germany to the USA for March to November was up by 23%

    Imports to Germany from the UK are up 1.5% for March to Nov 2021 v 2020. From the USA are up 11.3%.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    Last one from that data:

    For Mar-Nov the trade figures between Germany and USA are slightly higher (2-3%) in 2021 than 2019.

    The equivalent between Germany and UK are 14% lower. Both imports and exports.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    edited January 2022
    kingstongraham said:

    Last one from that data:

    For Mar-Nov the trade figures between Germany and USA are slightly higher (2-3%) in 2021 than 2019.

    The equivalent between Germany and UK are 14% lower. Both imports and exports.

    The ONS graphs I produced before showed a drop in imports to the UK from the EU. Not sure why.
  • mully79
    mully79 Posts: 904
    How much of the lack of imports/exports is the effect of reduced manufacturing output due to Corona or chip shortages ?

    Uk car production practically stopped dead for huge parts of last year. Surely a massive part of import/export numbers.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    mully79 said:

    How much of the lack of imports/exports is the effect of reduced manufacturing output due to Corona or chip shortages ?

    Uk car production practically stopped dead for huge parts of last year. Surely a massive part of import/export numbers.

    You would expect that to have similar or even bigger impacts on France and Germany for obvious reasons.
    _
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Negotiations to secure the UKs exit from the EU to be passed for the NI Assembly elections

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    tailwindhome said:

    Negotiations to secure the UKs exit from the EU to be passed for the NI Assembly elections

    What is the expected outcome of the elections?
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    TheBigBean said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Negotiations to secure the UKs exit from the EU to be passed for the NI Assembly elections

    What is the expected outcome of the elections?
    DUP fall

    SF First Minister

    DUP (if biggest Unionist Party refuse to form Executive)
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    tailwindhome said:

    TheBigBean said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Negotiations to secure the UKs exit from the EU to be passed for the NI Assembly elections

    What is the expected outcome of the elections?
    DUP fall

    SF First Minister

    DUP (if biggest Unionist Party refuse to form Executive)
    This is the executive that will approve the protocol, right?
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,411
    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Dec to Nov in both would be a rational comparison. There's enough post Brexit in that period to show any real deviation, without any excuse of stockpiling. Or March to Nov in both.

    March onwards would make more sense, but it may need to be seasonally adjusted. There was clearly a reduction in trade in Jan 2021 even considering the stockpiling. It was news in Feb. It doesn't need to be continually reported as new analysis.
    I am in no way an expert but don't these monthly figures bounce around?

    Logic would suggest that there would be an initial drop and then gradual drops as business found less inefficient way of doing things.

    The concept that increasing barriers to trade could increase the level of trade is one that I find fascinating. Ignoring the text books just think of what would happen to international trade policy. How quickly would countries be able to tear up trade deals so that they could erect tariffs and non-tariff barriers to boost trade?
    Clearly more trade barriers should reduce trade. What annoys me is the constant misrepresentation of the data to show a far greater impact.
    Especially by randoms on twitter.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    TheBigBean said:

    tailwindhome said:

    TheBigBean said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Negotiations to secure the UKs exit from the EU to be passed for the NI Assembly elections

    What is the expected outcome of the elections?
    DUP fall

    SF First Minister

    DUP (if biggest Unionist Party refuse to form Executive)
    This is the executive that will approve the protocol, right?
    Or not.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Dec to Nov in both would be a rational comparison. There's enough post Brexit in that period to show any real deviation, without any excuse of stockpiling. Or March to Nov in both.

    March onwards would make more sense, but it may need to be seasonally adjusted. There was clearly a reduction in trade in Jan 2021 even considering the stockpiling. It was news in Feb. It doesn't need to be continually reported as new analysis.
    I am in no way an expert but don't these monthly figures bounce around?

    Logic would suggest that there would be an initial drop and then gradual drops as business found less inefficient way of doing things.

    The concept that increasing barriers to trade could increase the level of trade is one that I find fascinating. Ignoring the text books just think of what would happen to international trade policy. How quickly would countries be able to tear up trade deals so that they could erect tariffs and non-tariff barriers to boost trade?
    Clearly more trade barriers should reduce trade. What annoys me is the constant misrepresentation of the data to show a far greater impact.
    That's not true in this case, in my opinion.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    So we don't want to record January because...January didn't happen?
    _
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    rick_chasey said:

    So we don't want to record January because...January didn't happen?

    It's not representative to include January when omitting December. There was clearly some bringing forward of orders.

    The comparisons for imports to Germany from UK from the link on the tweet compared to the year before were:

    September 20 -12.1%
    October 20 -12.5%
    November 20 +6.6%
    December 20 +3.8%
    January 21 -28.1%
    February 21 -11.7%
    March 21 -12.4%
    April 21 63.9%
    May 21 45.8%


    April and May are where the comparison with Covid times kick in.


  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    tailwindhome said:

    TheBigBean said:

    tailwindhome said:

    TheBigBean said:

    tailwindhome said:

    Negotiations to secure the UKs exit from the EU to be passed for the NI Assembly elections

    What is the expected outcome of the elections?
    DUP fall

    SF First Minister

    DUP (if biggest Unionist Party refuse to form Executive)
    This is the executive that will approve the protocol, right?
    Or not.
    We have discussed before about there not being a referendum even if the assembly is not sitting, but do you think that the UK government could arrange an advisory referendum? And if so, would the MLAs respect the vote?
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Dec to Nov in both would be a rational comparison. There's enough post Brexit in that period to show any real deviation, without any excuse of stockpiling. Or March to Nov in both.

    March onwards would make more sense, but it may need to be seasonally adjusted. There was clearly a reduction in trade in Jan 2021 even considering the stockpiling. It was news in Feb. It doesn't need to be continually reported as new analysis.
    I am in no way an expert but don't these monthly figures bounce around?

    Logic would suggest that there would be an initial drop and then gradual drops as business found less inefficient way of doing things.

    The concept that increasing barriers to trade could increase the level of trade is one that I find fascinating. Ignoring the text books just think of what would happen to international trade policy. How quickly would countries be able to tear up trade deals so that they could erect tariffs and non-tariff barriers to boost trade?
    Clearly more trade barriers should reduce trade. What annoys me is the constant misrepresentation of the data to show a far greater impact.
    That's not true in this case, in my opinion.
    Your analysis is certainly a more meaningful representation. You are the leading Cake Stop statistician.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Dec to Nov in both would be a rational comparison. There's enough post Brexit in that period to show any real deviation, without any excuse of stockpiling. Or March to Nov in both.

    March onwards would make more sense, but it may need to be seasonally adjusted. There was clearly a reduction in trade in Jan 2021 even considering the stockpiling. It was news in Feb. It doesn't need to be continually reported as new analysis.
    I am in no way an expert but don't these monthly figures bounce around?

    Logic would suggest that there would be an initial drop and then gradual drops as business found less inefficient way of doing things.

    The concept that increasing barriers to trade could increase the level of trade is one that I find fascinating. Ignoring the text books just think of what would happen to international trade policy. How quickly would countries be able to tear up trade deals so that they could erect tariffs and non-tariff barriers to boost trade?
    Clearly more trade barriers should reduce trade. What annoys me is the constant misrepresentation of the data to show a far greater impact.
    That's not true in this case, in my opinion.
    Your analysis is certainly a more meaningful representation. You are the leading Cake Stop statistician.
    Seconded.

    @kingstongraham are you able to point to any meaningful trends in the data?
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Dec to Nov in both would be a rational comparison. There's enough post Brexit in that period to show any real deviation, without any excuse of stockpiling. Or March to Nov in both.

    March onwards would make more sense, but it may need to be seasonally adjusted. There was clearly a reduction in trade in Jan 2021 even considering the stockpiling. It was news in Feb. It doesn't need to be continually reported as new analysis.
    I am in no way an expert but don't these monthly figures bounce around?

    Logic would suggest that there would be an initial drop and then gradual drops as business found less inefficient way of doing things.

    The concept that increasing barriers to trade could increase the level of trade is one that I find fascinating. Ignoring the text books just think of what would happen to international trade policy. How quickly would countries be able to tear up trade deals so that they could erect tariffs and non-tariff barriers to boost trade?
    Clearly more trade barriers should reduce trade. What annoys me is the constant misrepresentation of the data to show a far greater impact.
    That's not true in this case, in my opinion.
    Your analysis is certainly a more meaningful representation. You are the leading Cake Stop statistician.
    Seconded.

    @kingstongraham are you able to point to any meaningful trends in the data?
    Germany's trade with the USA seems to have returned to (and increased beyond) pre-pandemic levels. Germany's trade with the UK is way lower than pre-pandemic levels - by double figures percent each month - with the exception of exports from Germany to the UK in November 2021 vs 2019. This might be a bit more stockpiling.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    kingstongraham said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    TheBigBean said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Dec to Nov in both would be a rational comparison. There's enough post Brexit in that period to show any real deviation, without any excuse of stockpiling. Or March to Nov in both.

    March onwards would make more sense, but it may need to be seasonally adjusted. There was clearly a reduction in trade in Jan 2021 even considering the stockpiling. It was news in Feb. It doesn't need to be continually reported as new analysis.
    I am in no way an expert but don't these monthly figures bounce around?

    Logic would suggest that there would be an initial drop and then gradual drops as business found less inefficient way of doing things.

    The concept that increasing barriers to trade could increase the level of trade is one that I find fascinating. Ignoring the text books just think of what would happen to international trade policy. How quickly would countries be able to tear up trade deals so that they could erect tariffs and non-tariff barriers to boost trade?
    Clearly more trade barriers should reduce trade. What annoys me is the constant misrepresentation of the data to show a far greater impact.
    That's not true in this case, in my opinion.
    Your analysis is certainly a more meaningful representation. You are the leading Cake Stop statistician.
    Seconded.

    @kingstongraham are you able to point to any meaningful trends in the data?
    Germany's trade with the USA seems to have returned to (and increased beyond) pre-pandemic levels. Germany's trade with the UK is way lower than pre-pandemic levels - by double figures percent each month - with the exception of exports from Germany to the UK in November 2021 vs 2019. This might be a bit more stockpiling.
    TY
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Could be argued as a pro or con for the UK.

    Irish freight starting to bypass GB

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,329
    tailwindhome said:



    Irish freight starting to bypass GB

    But, but, but, I was told this would never happen.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    tailwindhome said:

    Could be argued as a pro or con for the UK.

    Irish freight starting to bypass GB

    I think that can be filed as Brexit positive #10

    Brexit positive #11 rules changing on gene editing. I won't pretend to understand, but it seems to be accepted as a good thing.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    I think that can be filed as Brexit positive #10

    Arguably, though the flip side is less business for GB ports and connected businesses.



    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    tailwindhome said:

    I think that can be filed as Brexit positive #10

    Arguably, though the flip side is less business for GB ports and connected businesses.



    Yes, I understand that, though I'm sceptical just how much business a truck offers. It comes with its own bed and doesn't pay for using the roads.
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,560
    TheBigBean said:

    tailwindhome said:

    I think that can be filed as Brexit positive #10

    Arguably, though the flip side is less business for GB ports and connected businesses.



    Yes, I understand that, though I'm sceptical just how much business a truck offers. It comes with its own bed and doesn't pay for using the roads.
    Yes, never understood / understand why we don't have a vignette type system for foreign registered commercial vehicles.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    The NI electorate in a really foul mood


    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!

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