BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965

    john80 said:

    Look the real cost to Brexit isn't the drama of lots of firms not having sh!t in place trade right on 4th Jan 2021.

    Eventually, everyone will have the paperwork in place. But the marginal extra cost will put some firms off trading in the UK and will cost some UK firms. That in aggregate is expensive. Individually it won't be.

    That is what's so galling about it all. It leaves the UK poorer but in a way no-one really notices.

    Do you understand what a deficit is and how it might not be a great thing for the UK.
    Deficit in what?

    Deficit in basic economics knowledge?
    I believe others have pointed this out to you on multiple times with limited success. Deficit in understanding is certainly your specialist subject.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Sorry are you talking about the govt spending deficit?

    In which case take it up with the head of the OECD who came out yesterday saying what I say about it.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,172
    Argh, no one has a subscription other than you. It's like me posting a link to the CIPA journal. What's that, you say? Exactly.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    She says gov’ts should stick to high spending low taxes and not worry about the deficit (so long as there is trust in the institutions) in order to avoid public revolt and to avoid the mistakes of the previous recovery in 10/11.

  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965

    She says gov’ts should stick to high spending low taxes and not worry about the deficit (so long as there is trust in the institutions) in order to avoid public revolt and to avoid the mistakes of the previous recovery in 10/11.

    This does not solve you trade deficit with others.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Ah ok so you’re talking trade deficits not govt spending deficits.

    So what is the problem precisely?

    Only economists can’t agree on whether they’re good or bad and it entirely depends on circumstance.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    I know you’re a firm believer in autarky but you must know that is the road to ruin.
  • bompington
    bompington Posts: 7,674

    I know you’re a firm believer in autarky but you must know that is the road to ruin.

    Don't knock autarky, it works fine for North Korea!












    As long as we ignore the fact that, for their own reasons, China keep them going...
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,424

    ddraver said:

    'Ere financial peeps, What does this mean?

    If you wanted to by listed shares of EU companies you could do that in the UK.

    Most firms who are doing that have moved the buying process to the local countries.

    Eg if you wanted to buy shares in Deutsche Bank (because you’re an idiot) lots of firms would do that in London.

    Now they are going to the exchange on which DB is listed (in Germany) to buy them there.

    So the fees generated from offering the services of buying and selling those DB shares are generated in Germany not in the U.K.

    I think London had around 30% of the market in terms of volume.
    What is the main benefit of trading shares on an EU exchange over trading them in London?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965

    Ah ok so you’re talking trade deficits not govt spending deficits.

    So what is the problem precisely?

    Only economists can’t agree on whether they’re good or bad and it entirely depends on circumstance.

    Countries often have sector trade deficits for good reasons such as climate and food for example. You were championing trade deficits in things like beer and manufacturing bike bits which guess what are easily achievable in the UK.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,562

    I know you’re a firm believer in autarky but you must know that is the road to ruin.

    Don't knock autarky, it works fine for North Korea!












    As long as we ignore the fact that, for their own reasons, China keep them going...
    Well John is a big fan of China. All that lovely authoritarian central control.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,424
    It says 'become a subscribers to read'. Very useful.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    rjsterry said:

    I know you’re a firm believer in autarky but you must know that is the road to ruin.

    Don't knock autarky, it works fine for North Korea!












    As long as we ignore the fact that, for their own reasons, China keep them going...
    Well John is a big fan of China. All that lovely authoritarian central control.
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/11/wuhan-in-then-and-now-pictures

    Those communists in Wuhan getting back to the new normal. Probably just a communist plot to undermine western democracy. 😀
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,424
    Rather amusing - Gove mocks the SNP for voting against the trade deal (after the SNP said that Boris should go to jail if he left the EU without a deal) :)

    https://youtu.be/eRo8s2Ar9qw
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    john80 said:

    Ah ok so you’re talking trade deficits not govt spending deficits.

    So what is the problem precisely?

    Only economists can’t agree on whether they’re good or bad and it entirely depends on circumstance.

    Countries often have sector trade deficits for good reasons such as climate and food for example. You were championing trade deficits in things like beer and manufacturing bike bits which guess what are easily achievable in the UK.
    Can you quote where I was doing this?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Meanwhile, here's a blog post that agrees with me so I thought I'd share. From an economist.

    https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-immigration-doesnt-reduce-wages


    In this post, I’m going to explain why immigration doesn’t lower wages for native-born people (except possibly a little bit, in a few special circumstances). But before I do that, there’s one thing you really have to understand: No one is going to be persuaded by this post.


    ...

    So this post isn’t going to persuade anti-immigration people to change their stance, and it’s probably not going to persuade many normies to be up in arms about the need to let in more immigrants, either. But it’s still important to write, and not just because I’m a stubborn S.O.B. who will die face-down in the muck fighting for The Empirical Evidence. It’s because in another 20 years or so, when America’s current freakout over identity and nationhood has passed, we’re hopefully going to be ready to let in a bunch of immigrants again. And when that time finally comes, these arguments will matter
  • david37
    david37 Posts: 1,313
    Stevo_666 said:

    Rather amusing - Gove mocks the SNP for voting against the trade deal (after the SNP said that Boris should go to jail if he left the EU without a deal) :)

    https://youtu.be/eRo8s2Ar9qw

    he's good is gove but that was one of his softer moment :)
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Careful David, that link above has some charts. Sorry, I should have put a trigger warning in.
  • Stevo_666 said:

    Rather amusing - Gove mocks the SNP for voting against the trade deal (after the SNP said that Boris should go to jail if he left the EU without a deal) :)

    https://youtu.be/eRo8s2Ar9qw

    Reminds me of this:

    https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x4jqen4
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965

    john80 said:

    Ah ok so you’re talking trade deficits not govt spending deficits.

    So what is the problem precisely?

    Only economists can’t agree on whether they’re good or bad and it entirely depends on circumstance.

    Countries often have sector trade deficits for good reasons such as climate and food for example. You were championing trade deficits in things like beer and manufacturing bike bits which guess what are easily achievable in the UK.
    Can you quote where I was doing this?
    You were complaining about the loss of Belgian beer suppliers and Dutch bike bits to the UK market. In both cases they were a excellent way of creating a near perfect trade deficit as with the exception of a delivery company their entire supply chain was outside the UK. I both cases we could have the complete supply chain and gained the value all along the chain. You are championing that this should continue and that HMRC were being harsh in making them fill out the relevent paperwork.
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    john80 said:

    john80 said:

    Ah ok so you’re talking trade deficits not govt spending deficits.

    So what is the problem precisely?

    Only economists can’t agree on whether they’re good or bad and it entirely depends on circumstance.

    Countries often have sector trade deficits for good reasons such as climate and food for example. You were championing trade deficits in things like beer and manufacturing bike bits which guess what are easily achievable in the UK.
    Can you quote where I was doing this?
    You were complaining about the loss of Belgian beer suppliers and Dutch bike bits to the UK market. In both cases they were a excellent way of creating a near perfect trade deficit as with the exception of a delivery company their entire supply chain was outside the UK. I both cases we could have the complete supply chain and gained the value all along the chain. You are championing that this should continue and that HMRC were being harsh in making them fill out the relevent paperwork.
    You understand how for the majority (i.e. consumers) this is bad though right?
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    john80 said:

    Ah ok so you’re talking trade deficits not govt spending deficits.

    So what is the problem precisely?

    Only economists can’t agree on whether they’re good or bad and it entirely depends on circumstance.

    Countries often have sector trade deficits for good reasons such as climate and food for example. You were championing trade deficits in things like beer and manufacturing bike bits which guess what are easily achievable in the UK.
    Can you quote where I was doing this?
    You were complaining about the loss of Belgian beer suppliers and Dutch bike bits to the UK market. In both cases they were a excellent way of creating a near perfect trade deficit as with the exception of a delivery company their entire supply chain was outside the UK. I both cases we could have the complete supply chain and gained the value all along the chain. You are championing that this should continue and that HMRC were being harsh in making them fill out the relevent paperwork.
    You understand how for the majority (i.e. consumers) this is bad though right?
    We are not going to become North Korea. We should just be looking for a bit of balance. Buy in what we have to and seek to foster more work in our own country where we think it adds value. The complaint to what is a very minor barrier to the UK market is over the top.
  • pangolin
    pangolin Posts: 6,648
    edited January 2021
    john80 said:

    pangolin said:

    john80 said:

    john80 said:

    Ah ok so you’re talking trade deficits not govt spending deficits.

    So what is the problem precisely?

    Only economists can’t agree on whether they’re good or bad and it entirely depends on circumstance.

    Countries often have sector trade deficits for good reasons such as climate and food for example. You were championing trade deficits in things like beer and manufacturing bike bits which guess what are easily achievable in the UK.
    Can you quote where I was doing this?
    You were complaining about the loss of Belgian beer suppliers and Dutch bike bits to the UK market. In both cases they were a excellent way of creating a near perfect trade deficit as with the exception of a delivery company their entire supply chain was outside the UK. I both cases we could have the complete supply chain and gained the value all along the chain. You are championing that this should continue and that HMRC were being harsh in making them fill out the relevent paperwork.
    You understand how for the majority (i.e. consumers) this is bad though right?
    We are not going to become North Korea. We should just be looking for a bit of balance. Buy in what we have to and seek to foster more work in our own country where we think it adds value. The complaint to what is a very minor barrier to the UK market is over the top.
    It doesn't though does it? Are we really saying we can make Belgian beer better than Belgians?

    There is a whole load of middle ground between our old situation and "North Korea" where things are just a bit sh1tter for consumers. Cheers...
    - Genesis Croix de Fer
    - Dolan Tuono
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    john80 said:

    john80 said:

    Ah ok so you’re talking trade deficits not govt spending deficits.

    So what is the problem precisely?

    Only economists can’t agree on whether they’re good or bad and it entirely depends on circumstance.

    Countries often have sector trade deficits for good reasons such as climate and food for example. You were championing trade deficits in things like beer and manufacturing bike bits which guess what are easily achievable in the UK.
    Can you quote where I was doing this?
    You were complaining about the loss of Belgian beer suppliers and Dutch bike bits to the UK market. In both cases they were a excellent way of creating a near perfect trade deficit as with the exception of a delivery company their entire supply chain was outside the UK. I both cases we could have the complete supply chain and gained the value all along the chain. You are championing that this should continue and that HMRC were being harsh in making them fill out the relevent paperwork.
    Lol so your objective here is autarky?

  • I'm not sure wanting Shimano components to be manufactured in the UK is particularly realistic, but it would be surprising if there weren't a way for UK retailers importing to the UK and selling to UK customers to compete with Dutch retailers importing to the Netherlands and selling to UK customers. If there is some unfair reason that the UK company cannot, then it is fair to address this. If there is not, then these new barriers just mean the UK customer paying more for the same thing.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,330

    I'm not sure wanting Shimano components to be manufactured in the UK is particularly realistic, but it would be surprising if there weren't a way for UK retailers importing to the UK and selling to UK customers to compete with Dutch retailers importing to the Netherlands and selling to UK customers. If there is some unfair reason that the UK company cannot, then it is fair to address this. If there is not, then these new barriers just mean the UK customer paying more for the same thing.

    I just had a look for some potential spare components from all the usual online places, UK & EU. A very high percentage are "currently unavailable". Not commenting on the why's and wherefores but it is a worrying situation.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965

    john80 said:

    john80 said:

    Ah ok so you’re talking trade deficits not govt spending deficits.

    So what is the problem precisely?

    Only economists can’t agree on whether they’re good or bad and it entirely depends on circumstance.

    Countries often have sector trade deficits for good reasons such as climate and food for example. You were championing trade deficits in things like beer and manufacturing bike bits which guess what are easily achievable in the UK.
    Can you quote where I was doing this?
    You were complaining about the loss of Belgian beer suppliers and Dutch bike bits to the UK market. In both cases they were a excellent way of creating a near perfect trade deficit as with the exception of a delivery company their entire supply chain was outside the UK. I both cases we could have the complete supply chain and gained the value all along the chain. You are championing that this should continue and that HMRC were being harsh in making them fill out the relevent paperwork.
    Lol so your objective here is autarky?

    I would not class having zero trade deficit as autarky. We could be bold and want a trade surplus with the world.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    john80 said:

    john80 said:

    john80 said:

    Ah ok so you’re talking trade deficits not govt spending deficits.

    So what is the problem precisely?

    Only economists can’t agree on whether they’re good or bad and it entirely depends on circumstance.

    Countries often have sector trade deficits for good reasons such as climate and food for example. You were championing trade deficits in things like beer and manufacturing bike bits which guess what are easily achievable in the UK.
    Can you quote where I was doing this?
    You were complaining about the loss of Belgian beer suppliers and Dutch bike bits to the UK market. In both cases they were a excellent way of creating a near perfect trade deficit as with the exception of a delivery company their entire supply chain was outside the UK. I both cases we could have the complete supply chain and gained the value all along the chain. You are championing that this should continue and that HMRC were being harsh in making them fill out the relevent paperwork.
    Lol so your objective here is autarky?

    I would not class having zero trade deficit as autarky. We could be bold and want a trade surplus with the world.
    Why?

    If you want lots of investment into the UK that hurts the figures.

    Globally the trade surplus is zero so why does it matter so much?

    https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/051515/pros-cons-trade-deficit.asp

    This page is good on the pros and cons of a trade deficit.

    I don't really understand why you are focused on trade deficit so much.