BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Worth a read.

    https://www.cer.org.uk/publications/arc ... ion-brexit
  • joenobody
    joenobody Posts: 563
    verylonglegs wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Wallace and Gromit wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Good old John Deadwood.

    [Shakes head as Tories show their true colours one after another]

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politic ... dwood.html

    There are a few Tories previously in the "Maybe they have insight, knowledge and judgement that are beyond my comprehension" category who are now in the proven fruitcake category. Redwood leads the charge there on this front.

    Fox said the same yesterday so at the very least there have been discussions on this.

    My God, is there not an asylum missing a patient? We must be in a sorry state when someone like that holds office, to think we laugh at American politics.
    He's my MP, unfortunately, and as a constituency we voted to Remain. Hopefully, when the chance arises, we'll vote him out. I don't hold out much hope though - it's a pretty safe Conservative seat, with many voters voting for the party rather than the candidate.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    Joelsim wrote:
    Carney on inflation. It's the poor who'll be hit first. Colour me surprised, but whenever I've said that to anyone on Twatter or Facebook they've told me I lost, and to get over it.

    http://news.sky.com/story/bank-governor ... t-10616704
    Surely this comprises a large part of the demographic that voted to leave? In which case they will be getting the punishment you wanted them to get. Slightly ironic given you are you are Labour supporter though.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    Joelsim wrote:
    Nissan appear to have been told their trading conditions will be the same as now by Mayhem.

    Eh?
    Link?

    Can't see anything specific following that meeting betwwen Ghosn and May.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Carney on inflation. It's the poor who'll be hit first. Colour me surprised, but whenever I've said that to anyone on Twatter or Facebook they've told me I lost, and to get over it.

    http://news.sky.com/story/bank-governor ... t-10616704
    Surely this comprises a large part of the demographic that voted to leave? In which case they will be getting the punishment you wanted them to get. Slightly ironic given you are you are Labour supporter though.

    Just need a story about Battenburg cake prices soaring and all will be well in the world
  • bendertherobot
    bendertherobot Posts: 11,684
    The Express is quite binary today. We're urged to support May's plans (anyone know what they are?) and that we should decide, as Bremoaners, whether we're for or against Britain. In other news harshest winter ever.
    My blog: http://www.roubaixcycling.cc (kit reviews and other musings)
    https://twitter.com/roubaixcc
    Facebook? No. Just say no.
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,329
    bendertherobot wrote:
    In other news harshest winter ever.

    ...and they've found a miracle cure for cancer, an anti obesity pill and Diana was abducted by aliens on behalf of Al Fayed.
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Carney on inflation. It's the poor who'll be hit first. Colour me surprised, but whenever I've said that to anyone on Twatter or Facebook they've told me I lost, and to get over it.

    http://news.sky.com/story/bank-governor ... t-10616704
    Surely this comprises a large part of the demographic that voted to leave? In which case they will be getting the punishment you wanted them to get. Slightly ironic given you are you are Labour supporter though.

    Surely this isn't good for anyone.

    And as mentioned many times before I'm not typically a Labour supporter. I voted for Blair. I voted for Cameron to get Brown out, and I voted for LDs last time as I didn't trust Labour on the economy and I became disillusioned with the lack of investment by the Tories. So, given the fascist nature of the current Gov my support is 'anyone but Tory' as it stands.

    All of my votes were and still are, based on the economy and thus the hope that an improvement in the economy will benefit the most people.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    Depends.

    Nobody want their weekly shop etc to go up. Most people will adapt to price increases, its not as if we have never experienced inflation before. Those with mortgages and large long term debt will benefit over time.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Depends.

    Nobody want their weekly shop etc to go up. Most people will adapt to price increases, its not as if we have never experienced inflation before. Those with mortgages and large long term debt will benefit over time.

    They won't benefit from cuts to services and increased taxes, nor food, clothing, lager, wine, energy increases. Nor going on holiday or purchases of manufactured goods from abroad (most things). All in all a f*ck up of epic proportions.

    And for what?
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    Depends on how big your debts are compared to your spending on stuff that gets inflated. This was one of the factors that made a material difference to the wealth of my parents generation.

    Can we have a look at your doomsday crystal ball that is telling just how bad things are going to be? :wink:
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Depends on how big your debts are compared to your spending on stuff that gets inflated. This was one of the factors that made a material difference to the wealth of my parents generation.

    Can we have a look at your doomsday crystal ball that is telling just how bad things are going to be? :wink:

    You can find all that stuff in the FT, The Times, The Economist. Plenty of links posted on this thread.

    Perhaps aggregate them and see where you get to.
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Depends.

    Nobody want their weekly shop etc to go up. Most people will adapt to price increases, its not as if we have never experienced inflation before. Those with mortgages and large long term debt will benefit over time.
    I think some of them do if it means no more immigrants - given that poll which showed 35% of Leave voters would sacrifice 5% of their income to keep the furriners out.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Depends on how big your debts are compared to your spending on stuff that gets inflated. This was one of the factors that made a material difference to the wealth of my parents generation.

    Can we have a look at your doomsday crystal ball that is telling just how bad things are going to be? :wink:

    You can find all that stuff in the FT, The Times, The Economist. Plenty of links posted on this thread.

    Perhaps aggregate them and see where you get to.
    Nobody is really disputing that the short to medium term economic outcome will be worse than remaining.

    However there is a difference between forecasting/reportting a range of possible outcomes as the above publications do, and consistently assuming the worst possible outcome as you do. Which as you know, is guessing.

    I have noticed that there is a general correlation on here between stated dislike of the conservatives and negativity of Brexit predictions. One possible explanation for this perhaps the deep seated desire (possibly even subconscious) to be able to point the finger and say that the evil Tories screwed it up. Which of course implies that certain people are letting their political bias cloud their objectivity in this debate.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Depends.

    Nobody want their weekly shop etc to go up. Most people will adapt to price increases, its not as if we have never experienced inflation before. Those with mortgages and large long term debt will benefit over time.
    I think some of them do if it means no more immigrants - given that poll which showed 35% of Leave voters would sacrifice 5% of their income to keep the furriners out.
    Possibly. I wonder what the view would be of fhe 47% of Remain voters who wanted some form of immigration controls?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Depends on how big your debts are compared to your spending on stuff that gets inflated. This was one of the factors that made a material difference to the wealth of my parents generation.

    Can we have a look at your doomsday crystal ball that is telling just how bad things are going to be? :wink:

    You can find all that stuff in the FT, The Times, The Economist. Plenty of links posted on this thread.

    Perhaps aggregate them and see where you get to.
    Nobody is really disputing that the short to medium term economic outcome will be worse than remaining.

    However there is a difference between forecasting/reportting a range of possible outcomes as the above publications do, and consistently assuming the worst possible outcome as you do. Which as you know, is guessing.

    I have noticed that there is a general correlation on here between stated dislike of the conservatives and negativity of Brexit predictions. One possible explanation for this perhaps the deep seated desire (possibly even subconscious) to be able to point the finger and say that the evil Tories screwed it up. Which of course implies that certain people are letting their political bias cloud their objectivity in this debate.

    I guess that all depends on whether you think there's a form of Soft Brexit available. With everything I've read I don't believe it's an option. There is the Freedom of Movement sticking point.

    And you should believe me on my non-bias politically. As I've said I always vote for the economy, which means I most often lean towards the Tories. In this particular instance I'd vote for a chimp ahead of them.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    There is a range of forecast outcomes for each scenario - including hard Brexit. You still seem to take the worst case outcome available.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Depends on how big your debts are compared to your spending on stuff that gets inflated. This was one of the factors that made a material difference to the wealth of my parents generation.

    Can we have a look at your doomsday crystal ball that is telling just how bad things are going to be? :wink:

    You can find all that stuff in the FT, The Times, The Economist. Plenty of links posted on this thread.

    Perhaps aggregate them and see where you get to.
    Nobody is really disputing that the short to medium term economic outcome will be worse than remaining.

    However there is a difference between forecasting/reportting a range of possible outcomes as the above publications do, and consistently assuming the worst possible outcome as you do. Which as you know, is guessing.

    I have noticed that there is a general correlation on here between stated dislike of the conservatives and negativity of Brexit predictions. One possible explanation for this perhaps the deep seated desire (possibly even subconscious) to be able to point the finger and say that the evil Tories screwed it up. Which of course implies that certain people are letting their political bias cloud their objectivity in this debate.

    Where do I fit into your spreadsheet?
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Matthew Parris had a very good piece today. In summary he thinks May's objection to a Commons debate is because they have nothing to say. They have not moved on from being a loose coalition wanting to leave the EU to being policy makers.
    He also reckons the 20 hard core Tory Brexit MPs have been replaced by 20 hard core remainders. I.e. They will rebel. He also reckons that if May loses a major vote she will call a General Election. Bearing in mind the state of the polls will Labour end up voting with the Tories?

    He also suggests there is a growing body of opinion that nothing can be achieved in 2 years so we may as well go down the WTO route asap. I have to say that if we do invoke A50 this would probably be my preferred option.
  • mamba80
    mamba80 Posts: 5,032
    Stevo 666 wrote:

    I have noticed that there is a general correlation on here between stated dislike of the conservatives and negativity of Brexit predictions. One possible explanation for this perhaps the deep seated desire (possibly even subconscious) to be able to point the finger and say that the evil Tories screwed it up. Which of course implies that certain people are letting their political bias cloud their objectivity in this debate.

    Nah, your way out.

    millions of people in this country, many of whom believed we d have 350m EXTRA per week to spend as we wish, not really appreciating that that amount would nt even run the NHS for a few months), will be hit very hard in the short to medium term, for them, that means hardship, unemployment and debt, they ve not got long term! and it ll be the rest of us paying for their kids and housing! like me for starters!

    thats not good for anyone and it is a p1ss poor PM of ANY party that deliberately takes us down this route.... just because a majority want something, a true leader and independent thinker doesnt have to do it.

    in '39 the british people didnt want war, they couldnt see the threat, WC could and he showed true leadership and thats whats been missing in this country over recent times, the low point being that utter moron Cameron., jeez though it pains me, MT was afar superior PM to the last 2 incumbents

    So no Steve0, i want someone to put this country first and if its a Tory PM, thats dandy by me.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    Its also a good way of flushing them out :wink:
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    There is a range of forecast outcomes for each scenario - including hard Brexit. You still seem to take the worst case outcome available.

    Funnily enough, I'm a realist.

    IMO this is pretty much spot on from what I've read over the past year.

    https://www.cer.org.uk/insights/why-27- ... ine-brexit
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Ya know the CETA EU/Canada trade deal? The one Britain has looked to copy?

    Fell through. Walloon regional gov't veto'd the whole thing.

    This is big news - how many different votes will need to be held to agree a trade deal with the UK? This really will take years.

    Anybody else think our time and energy would be better spent nailing down the WTO issues?
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Ya know the CETA EU/Canada trade deal? The one Britain has looked to copy?

    Fell through. Walloon regional gov't veto'd the whole thing.

    This is big news - how many different votes will need to be held to agree a trade deal with the UK? This really will take years.

    Anybody else think our time and energy would be better spent nailing down the WTO issues?

    Our time and energy would be better spent opposing Brexit. End of.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Looking very much like Remain has overtaken Brexiters now judging by the latest regret polls.

    And the effects haven't even started yet, that's all to come over the next few months.

    Even the dullards will think twice once their bills go up.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,154
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    There is a range of forecast outcomes for each scenario - including hard Brexit. You still seem to take the worst case outcome available.

    Funnily enough, I'm a realist.

    IMO this is pretty much spot on from what I've read over the past year.

    https://www.cer.org.uk/insights/why-27- ... ine-brexit

    Good article, thanks for posting.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    There is a range of forecast outcomes for each scenario - including hard Brexit. You still seem to take the worst case outcome available.

    Funnily enough, I think I'm a realist.

    IMO this is pretty much spot on from what I've read over the past year.

    https://www.cer.org.uk/insights/why-27- ... ine-brexit
    Not sure how assuming the worst case outcome in any scenario is realistic. Its just pessimistic.

    Plus, you're starting to sound like a stuck record.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Where do I fit into your spreadsheet?
    What spreadsheet?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • BelgianBeerGeek
    BelgianBeerGeek Posts: 5,226
    I did my usual trip last week. Bought lots of Belgian Beer and French wine. Cost me lots more than the trip in June. Ho-hum.
    Had a chat with the people in Belgium and they where phlegmatic aboubt the whole scheme. The EU is not great, but in maybe 10-15 years time where we are, it might be ok. Can't argue with that, can you, really?
    Ecrasez l’infame
  • mamba80
    mamba80 Posts: 5,032
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    There is a range of forecast outcomes for each scenario - including hard Brexit. You still seem to take the worst case outcome available.

    Funnily enough, I think I'm a realist.

    IMO this is pretty much spot on from what I've read over the past year.

    https://www.cer.org.uk/insights/why-27- ... ine-brexit
    Not sure how assuming the worst case outcome in any scenario is realistic. Its just pessimistic.

    Plus, you're starting to sound like a stuck record.

    thats rich coming from you.

    what are the less pessimistic scenarios? for the employees we are losing, directly attributed to Brexit, the outlook is poor.

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