BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,427
    Joelsim wrote:
    Wallace and Gromit wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Leaving the single market and a clear margin in favour of independence in the opinion polls will mean a new vote on independence.

    Sturgeon won't go for a referendum unless she thinks she's going to win it.

    Did you listen to her speech today?
    Good bit of rhetoric from Sturgeon, but back in the real world for Scotland (taken from a Guardian article today):

    "Sturgeon faces clear short-term obstacles to staging a second vote on leaving the UK. Scottish voters are still not convinced of the case for a fast second referendum and Holyrood requires Westminster’s legal authority to stage one.

    The latest poll, published on Thursday by the Herald from BMG, found independence does not have a majority and that only 12% of voters would switch to back leaving the UK if there was a hard Brexit. It found 47% were against independence, 38% in favour and 12% undecided.

    The economics of Scottish independence are still extremely difficult: the latest GDP data showed Scotland’s economy still growing at a third of the pace of the UK’s as a whole and government data showed a £15bn Scottish spending deficit last year – 21% of overall government spending in Scotland."
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,427
    mamba80 wrote:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36329178

    http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/wes ... t-11852353

    so, fujitsu say twice, pre and post brexit vote they ll review, they then review and cut 1800 over the next 12 months or so.... yet it has nothing to do with Brexit ... really?

    we are having our meetings tomo,where all will be revealed....
    you sound like a typical head in the sands Outer tbh or rather a Theresa-sit on the fence until i see which way the wind blows-May
    You need to re-read the link where Fujitsu specifically said that the decision had nothing to do with Brexit, and that the restructure was for the whole of the EMEA region. I can post it again if you want :)

    This is rather different from pre-Brexit sabre rattling to try to influence the result.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Jo Maugham QC thinks that if the case goes against the govt then it will delay A50 by 6 months or more. And give Parliament plenty of time to get in amongst everything.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    No-one liked my charts?
    _
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    I did Rick. Got one hanging in my living room now.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,427
    A bit of light hearted research:

    4a810e00-48d1-49af-896a-22ebeb1a9b70.png
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,427
    Joelsim wrote:
    Jo Maugham QC thinks that if the case goes against the govt then it will delay A50 by 6 months or more. And give Parliament plenty of time to get in amongst everything.
    Saw it in the news - keeping an eye on this.

    Any idea when there might be a decision from the High Court?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Jo Maugham QC thinks that if the case goes against the govt then it will delay A50 by 6 months or more. And give Parliament plenty of time to get in amongst everything.
    Saw it in the news - keeping an eye on this.

    Any idea when there might be a decision from the High Court?

    Case ends on Monday. But will almost certainly go to The Supreme Court in early December.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Copper price up 5% today.

    Is that because the pound is actually only worth a few coppers nowadays?
  • wallace_and_gromit
    wallace_and_gromit Posts: 3,618
    Joelsim wrote:
    Did you listen to her speech today?

    No. She makes me want to throw the radio or smash the telly. But then so do all politicians, even the ones I vote for.

    She'll be finished if she calls a referendum and loses, so she's not going to call one until she's certain she'll win.
  • wallace_and_gromit
    wallace_and_gromit Posts: 3,618
    Joelsim wrote:
    Copper price up 5% today.

    Is that because the pound is actually only worth a few coppers nowadays?

    Isn't copper priced in USD?
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Wallace and Gromit wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Copper price up 5% today.

    Is that because the pound is actually only worth a few coppers nowadays?

    Isn't copper priced in USD?

    It was a joke.
  • wallace_and_gromit
    wallace_and_gromit Posts: 3,618
    Joelsim wrote:
    Wallace and Gromit wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Copper price up 5% today.

    Is that because the pound is actually only worth a few coppers nowadays?

    Isn't copper priced in USD?

    It was a joke.

    Sorry. Thought you only did depression. ;)
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Oh. Look what's turned up.

    https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/statu ... 9659280385
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
    As far as I'm concerned Scotland are perfectly entitled to hold a second independence ref - given their electorate voted 62% to stay in the EU, and the previous independence referendum was on the basis that everyone at the time expected the UK to stay in the EU.

    I was living in Scotland for the last one and voted to remain in the UK. Not sure I'd do the same now.
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    A bit of light hearted research:

    4a810e00-48d1-49af-896a-22ebeb1a9b70.png
    I get a bit twitchy when there's no marmite in the house.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,427
    Wallace and Gromit wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Wallace and Gromit wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Copper price up 5% today.

    Is that because the pound is actually only worth a few coppers nowadays?

    Isn't copper priced in USD?

    It was a joke.

    Sorry. Thought you only did depression. ;)
    I do worry that in a couple of years time somebody impressionable will read this thread and end up topping themselves.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Joelsim wrote:
    Oh. Look what's turned up.

    https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/statu ... 9659280385

    So, no one has looked at this then?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    slide_35.jpg

    So whilst I have happily ignored many of the other economic indicators do you think I am right to be worried about stagflation? if the price of oil goes up then coupled with the sinking pound and other Brexit related nervousness could we have the perfect storm?

    Price of oil is more of an example in this instance.

    As we currently stand given the BoP, UK imports a lot more than it exports - that won't change overnight because the exchange rate has gone down.

    So certainly in the short term, that supply curve will move upwards as the cost of supplying things with stuff goes up. If I want to buy some copper from an Aussie mine for the electrical wiring in my widget machine, the cost will go up. etc.

    So you get a price increase, not because we're all buying more stuff, but because it's more expensive to make the stuff in the first place. So our incomes don't grow at the same rate as the price goes up - hence stagflation.

    Problem with stagflation is it's difficult to stimulate the economy when inflation is running away. So you have to focus on supply-side solutions which take a lot longer.

    Now, a rise in the interest rate might slow the economy down a bit, but might pump up sterling, so there's a balanced decision to be made there by the BoE, but it's not an ideal scenario.
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    slide_35.jpg

    So whilst I have happily ignored many of the other economic indicators do you think I am right to be worried about stagflation? if the price of oil goes up then coupled with the sinking pound and other Brexit related nervousness could we have the perfect storm?

    Price of oil is more of an example in this instance.

    As we currently stand given the BoP, UK imports a lot more than it exports - that won't change overnight because the exchange rate has gone down.

    So certainly in the short term, that supply curve will move upwards as the cost of supplying things with stuff goes up. If I want to buy some copper from an Aussie mine for the electrical wiring in my widget machine, the cost will go up. etc.

    So you get a price increase, not because we're all buying more stuff, but because it's more expensive to make the stuff in the first place. So our incomes don't grow at the same rate as the price goes up - hence stagflation.

    Problem with stagflation is it's difficult to stimulate the economy when inflation is running away. So you have to focus on supply-side solutions which take a lot longer.

    Now, a rise in the interest rate might slow the economy down a bit, but might pump up sterling, so there's a balanced decision to be made there by the BoE, but it's not an ideal scenario.

    Thanks for the economics lesson :wink: (I have a degree in the subject) - I was more making the point that if the price of oil went up we could be in some serious bother. As the price of oil is so low it could quite conceivably increase in price by 50%
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,919
    Joelsim wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Oh. Look what's turned up.

    https://twitter.com/jolyonmaugham/statu ... 9659280385

    So, no one has looked at this then?

    As I said above. Write to your MP and ask for a private members' bill. Job done.
  • mamba80
    mamba80 Posts: 5,032
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    mamba80 wrote:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36329178

    http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/wes ... t-11852353

    so, fujitsu say twice, pre and post brexit vote they ll review, they then review and cut 1800 over the next 12 months or so.... yet it has nothing to do with Brexit ... really?

    we are having our meetings tomo,where all will be revealed....
    you sound like a typical head in the sands Outer tbh or rather a Theresa-sit on the fence until i see which way the wind blows-May
    You need to re-read the link where Fujitsu specifically said that the decision had nothing to do with Brexit, and that the restructure was for the whole of the EMEA region. I can post it again if you want :)

    This is rather different from pre-Brexit sabre rattling to try to influence the result.

    What we are hearing is that Fujitsu are saying its nothing to do with Brexit, as they dont want to upset the Gov, they ve still got to do business here.
    Also they said AFTER the result in Sept, that they d need to restructure....due to Brexit.... but now the reasons have changed :wink:

    the timing is somewhat coincidental dont you think? though i do accept that there will be companies that will hide behind Brexit, just to deflect criticism.
  • Jez mon
    Jez mon Posts: 3,809
    mamba80 wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    mamba80 wrote:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-36329178

    http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/news/wes ... t-11852353

    so, fujitsu say twice, pre and post brexit vote they ll review, they then review and cut 1800 over the next 12 months or so.... yet it has nothing to do with Brexit ... really?

    we are having our meetings tomo,where all will be revealed....
    you sound like a typical head in the sands Outer tbh or rather a Theresa-sit on the fence until i see which way the wind blows-May
    You need to re-read the link where Fujitsu specifically said that the decision had nothing to do with Brexit, and that the restructure was for the whole of the EMEA region. I can post it again if you want :)

    This is rather different from pre-Brexit sabre rattling to try to influence the result.

    What we are hearing is that Fujitsu are saying its nothing to do with Brexit, as they dont want to upset the Gov, they ve still got to do business here.
    Also they said AFTER the result in Sept, that they d need to restructure....due to Brexit.... but now the reasons have changed :wink:

    the timing is somewhat coincidental dont you think? though i do accept that there will be companies that will hide behind Brexit, just to deflect criticism.


    IIRC when a business leader said [some undesirable outcome] was due to Brexit, Stevo claimed that they were probably lying, now when a business leader says [some undesirable outcome which poeple suspect is due to brexit] isn't due to Brexit, they are definitely telling the truth... :wink:


    Still breaking BBC news, that marmite thing is solved, so I'm sure everythings gonna be OK
    You live and learn. At any rate, you live
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Could have fooled me ;).
    _
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    As I keep saying.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 60406.html

    This is why the Tories have opted for hard Brexit as there is no chance of anything else.

    Unfortunately for them there's now a lot of interest in stopping a hard Brexit.

    Going to be interesting.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Btw just for reference. Project Fear's estimate on Sterling was a 12% drop. It's already higher than that with more to come.
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,329
    I have had to trawl through 6 bloody pages (although there were some nice pictures) since I last logged in. Can you lot slow down please?

    I thought the price of oil would be directly linked to the value of the pound. Why should petrol at the pumps be wildly different to crude oil prices?
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Pinno wrote:
    I have had to trawl through 6 bloody pages (although there were some nice pictures) since I last logged in. Can you lot slow down please?

    I thought the price of oil would be directly linked to the value of the pound. Why should petrol at the pumps be wildly different to crude oil prices?


    Plus tax, overheads, margins etc. 60% of the price is tax, overheads and margins are fixed.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,330
    Pinno wrote:
    I have had to trawl through 6 bloody pages (although there were some nice pictures) since I last logged in. Can you lot slow down please?

    I thought the price of oil would be directly linked to the value of the pound. Why should petrol at the pumps be wildly different to crude oil prices?
    Prices are based in $
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,329
    Joelsim wrote:
    Pinno wrote:
    I have had to trawl through 6 bloody pages (although there were some nice pictures) since I last logged in. Can you lot slow down please?

    I thought the price of oil would be directly linked to the value of the pound. Why should petrol at the pumps be wildly different to crude oil prices?

    Plus tax, overheads, margins etc. 60% of the price is tax, overheads and margins are fixed.

    70% is tax. I was just a little confused by this post:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    ...I was more making the point that if the price of oil went up we could be in some serious bother. As the price of oil is so low it could quite conceivably increase in price by 50%
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Pinno wrote:
    Joelsim wrote:
    Pinno wrote:
    I have had to trawl through 6 bloody pages (although there were some nice pictures) since I last logged in. Can you lot slow down please?

    I thought the price of oil would be directly linked to the value of the pound. Why should petrol at the pumps be wildly different to crude oil prices?

    Plus tax, overheads, margins etc. 60% of the price is tax, overheads and margins are fixed.

    70% is tax. I was just a little confused by this post:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    ...I was more making the point that if the price of oil went up we could be in some serious bother. As the price of oil is so low it could quite conceivably increase in price by 50%

    What he means is a barrel of oil currently is very low, so imagine if that went up significantly. That really wouldn't be good for inflation with pressure also coming from everywhere for price rises due to the weakness of Sterling.

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