BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    The article that I linked gives the options that are in the control of the UK or not dependent on a trade deal - of which the key component is import/export tariffs (and which is far from the only factor in this situation).

    So how is gaining the agreement of 27 countries relevant to those options?

    Some other points from the article you quoted:
    - Moving production to countries like Turkey is a primarily a cost based decision that cannot be matched in Western Europe regardless of single market access. Note that Turkey is not part of the single market.

    - Can you explain why Italian car production has shrunk by 75% while the country has been part of the single market for the entire period that the single market has existed?

    Not sure about that Nissan reference - I thought it was illegal for govts to compensate for tariffs
    It is if you are member of the EU...
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    The article that I linked gives the options that are in the control of the UK or not dependent on a trade deal - of which the key component is import/export tariffs (and which is far from the only factor in this situation).

    So how is gaining the agreement of 27 countries relevant to those options?

    Some other points from the article you quoted:
    - Moving production to countries like Turkey is a primarily a cost based decision that cannot be matched in Western Europe regardless of single market access. Note that Turkey is not part of the single market.

    - Can you explain why Italian car production has shrunk by 75% while the country has been part of the single market for the entire period that the single market has existed?

    Not sure about that Nissan reference - I thought it was illegal for govts to compensate for tariffs

    It is. The official line is that details weren't discussed.

    Nissan are in a position of extreme strength. The Govt stands to lose all credibility if the highest profile brand pulls out of Sunderland. So, I suspect they spent the whole meeting fawning and bowing.
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    The article that I linked gives the options that are in the control of the UK or not dependent on a trade deal - of which the key component is import/export tariffs (and which is far from the only factor in this situation).

    So how is gaining the agreement of 27 countries relevant to those options?

    Some other points from the article you quoted:
    - Moving production to countries like Turkey is a primarily a cost based decision that cannot be matched in Western Europe regardless of single market access. Note that Turkey is not part of the single market.

    - Can you explain why Italian car production has shrunk by 75% while the country has been part of the single market for the entire period that the single market has existed?

    Not sure about that Nissan reference - I thought it was illegal for govts to compensate for tariffs
    It is if you are member of the EU...

    I guess they could source all the vital components from a non EU country instead.

    This isn't a 'we're moving out straight away case', but the next model gets made elsewhere, and so does the one after that and gradually production is run down.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    Joelsim wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    The article that I linked gives the options that are in the control of the UK or not dependent on a trade deal - of which the key component is import/export tariffs (and which is far from the only factor in this situation).

    So how is gaining the agreement of 27 countries relevant to those options?

    Some other points from the article you quoted:
    - Moving production to countries like Turkey is a primarily a cost based decision that cannot be matched in Western Europe regardless of single market access. Note that Turkey is not part of the single market.

    - Can you explain why Italian car production has shrunk by 75% while the country has been part of the single market for the entire period that the single market has existed?

    Not sure about that Nissan reference - I thought it was illegal for govts to compensate for tariffs

    It is. The official line is that details weren't discussed.

    Nissan are in a position of extreme strength. The Govt stands to lose all credibility if the highest profile brand pulls out of Sunderland. So, I suspect they spent the whole meeting fawning and bowing.
    That is interesting, the only problems are:
    1. It is pure speculation on your part.
    2. Nissan never said that they would shut up shop in Sunderland. The question was where the next incremental investment would go. So your speculation is based on a false premise.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
    Joelsim wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    The article that I linked gives the options that are in the control of the UK or not dependent on a trade deal - of which the key component is import/export tariffs (and which is far from the only factor in this situation).

    So how is gaining the agreement of 27 countries relevant to those options?

    Some other points from the article you quoted:
    - Moving production to countries like Turkey is a primarily a cost based decision that cannot be matched in Western Europe regardless of single market access. Note that Turkey is not part of the single market.

    - Can you explain why Italian car production has shrunk by 75% while the country has been part of the single market for the entire period that the single market has existed?

    Not sure about that Nissan reference - I thought it was illegal for govts to compensate for tariffs
    It is if you are member of the EU...

    I guess they could source all the vital components from a non EU country instead.

    This isn't a 'we're moving out straight away case', but the next model gets made elsewhere, and so does the one after that and gradually production is run down.
    What question are you answering there?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Have been reading up this afternoon and it really is a can of worms. Grandfathering in two years seems totally unrealistic. It seems the only way we could fall back on WTO rules would be to have no import duties or quotas. This is advocated by Patrick Minford (the only economist in favour or Brexit) but does concede it would end manufacturing in the U.K.

    As an example We would be lucky to get an agreement on farming subsidies above 5% which would be worth about £500m. Current subsidies are worth £3bn so farmers would lose £2.5bn and as I said earlier it is illegal to give them other payments. Can't see the Tories doing this.

    I will keep researching but this does not look good.

    This is an interesting article http://www.ictsd.org/opinion/nothing-si ... ost-brexit
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
      Surrey Commuter wrote:
      Stevo 666 wrote:
      [
      Let's also get some of these issues into perspective:
      - Weak pound. It has been lower than this vs the Euro as recently as 2009.
      fIr point
      - Inflation. Forecast to go up to between 2-3%. In the period 2008-2012 inclusive, the average CPI was 3.3%
      if wages do not go up then imported inflation is a problem
      - Reduced growth. Forecast for 2017 still shows GDP growth, albeit reduced to around 1%. In line with in main EU competitions and way above the reductions in GDP during the GFC. Some countries GDP went down by up to 5% yoy in that period.
      what the others are doing is irrelevant. We seemed to have shaved 1% off our growth rate
      1. What is an 'flr point'?
      2. We don't know that yet. Pretty sure wages did not go up in line with inflation in the period I mentiined and Armageddon was not triggered.
      3. Missing the point. We have had economic crises in the past and come through them. In terms of impact in growth, some were worse than the forecasts for this current situation.
      "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
    • Stevo_666
      Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
      Surrey Commuter wrote:
      Stevo 666 wrote:
      Surrey Commuter wrote:
      Stevo 666 wrote:
      Surrey Commuter wrote:
      TheBigBean wrote:
      I think WTO + grandfathering is a good place to start.

      The rights of EU citizens in the UK is also something that will need to be dealt with.

      Getting net migration below 100,000 would be a lot easier with more emigration.
      Obviously, given that net migration is equal to immigration less emigration. Not sure what your point is?

      Total net immigration is 330,000 of which only half is from the EU. That means, to me, that the number can not go sub 100,000 without encouraging emigration. So there might be a good reason to not look after EU citizens rights and to carry on being beastly to foreigners.

      Even if you banned all immigration from the EU you would only halve the number.
      Got the gross immigration (EU/non EU spilt) and gross emigration figures? Not sure the maths make sense on a net basis.

      I was trying to work out if the net figures told us anything and I think they do anyway here is some detail.
      https://fullfact.org/immigration/eu-migration-and-uk/
      OK, useful. Need to decide for myself what that actually means...
      "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
    • Stevo_666
      Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
      Stevo 666 wrote:
      Joelsim wrote:
      Steve, in order to have any sector of industry to be safeguarded from the effects of a hard Brexit and in such still trade like it does in the single market now, needs the approval of at least the vast majority of all 27 nations which frankly isn't going to happen. As I have said until I'm blue in the face, which you consistently ignore the key objective is not to damage the EU 27 nations by giving the UK a special deal. Which part of that are you struggling to understand?
      You are missing the point entirely.

      Try reading the article as it appears that you haven't.

      What is is saying overall is that there are factors other than a deal with the EU that are relevant to the car industry in the UK. Anyone with some decent commercial experience will realise this. Yes, a deal with the EU is relevant but there are other factors, as demonstrated by the points about Turkey and Italy.

      Now can you answer my question about Italy.
      Joel, I'm interested in your views on how the Italian car industry has declined by 75% while Italy has been a full EU member.

      You going to answer?
      "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
    • surrey_commuter
      surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
      Stevo 666 wrote:
        Surrey Commuter wrote:
        Stevo 666 wrote:
        [
        Let's also get some of these issues into perspective:
        - Weak pound. It has been lower than this vs the Euro as recently as 2009.
        fIr point
        - Inflation. Forecast to go up to between 2-3%. In the period 2008-2012 inclusive, the average CPI was 3.3%
        if wages do not go up then imported inflation is a problem
        - Reduced growth. Forecast for 2017 still shows GDP growth, albeit reduced to around 1%. In line with in main EU competitions and way above the reductions in GDP during the GFC. Some countries GDP went down by up to 5% yoy in that period.
        what the others are doing is irrelevant. We seemed to have shaved 1% off our growth rate
        1. What is an 'flr point'?
        2. We don't know that yet. Pretty sure wages did not go up in line with inflation in the period I mentiined and Armageddon was not triggered.
        3. Missing the point. We have had economic crises in the past and come through them. In terms of impact in growth, some were worse than the forecasts for this current situation.

        1. My predictive text won't let me agree with you :D - I tried to write "fair point"
        2. I think you know that high inflation in a slowing economy is generally bad news
        3. Yes growth reduced by 1% pa for 15 years is not Armageddon but it is a huge cost in terms of increased taxes and reduced spending.
      • joelsim
        joelsim Posts: 7,552
        Stevo 666 wrote:
        Stevo 666 wrote:
        Joelsim wrote:
        Steve, in order to have any sector of industry to be safeguarded from the effects of a hard Brexit and in such still trade like it does in the single market now, needs the approval of at least the vast majority of all 27 nations which frankly isn't going to happen. As I have said until I'm blue in the face, which you consistently ignore the key objective is not to damage the EU 27 nations by giving the UK a special deal. Which part of that are you struggling to understand?
        You are missing the point entirely.

        Try reading the article as it appears that you haven't.

        What is is saying overall is that there are factors other than a deal with the EU that are relevant to the car industry in the UK. Anyone with some decent commercial experience will realise this. Yes, a deal with the EU is relevant but there are other factors, as demonstrated by the points about Turkey and Italy.

        Now can you answer my question about Italy.
        Joel, I'm interested in your views on how the Italian car industry has declined by 75% while Italy has been a full EU member.

        You going to answer?

        I have no idea. That was the FT article that I copied and pasted as you don't appear to like reading links.
      • joelsim
        joelsim Posts: 7,552
        Surrey Commuter wrote:
        Stevo 666 wrote:
          Surrey Commuter wrote:
          Stevo 666 wrote:
          [
          Let's also get some of these issues into perspective:
          - Weak pound. It has been lower than this vs the Euro as recently as 2009.
          fIr point
          - Inflation. Forecast to go up to between 2-3%. In the period 2008-2012 inclusive, the average CPI was 3.3%
          if wages do not go up then imported inflation is a problem
          - Reduced growth. Forecast for 2017 still shows GDP growth, albeit reduced to around 1%. In line with in main EU competitions and way above the reductions in GDP during the GFC. Some countries GDP went down by up to 5% yoy in that period.
          what the others are doing is irrelevant. We seemed to have shaved 1% off our growth rate
          1. What is an 'flr point'?
          2. We don't know that yet. Pretty sure wages did not go up in line with inflation in the period I mentiined and Armageddon was not triggered.
          3. Missing the point. We have had economic crises in the past and come through them. In terms of impact in growth, some were worse than the forecasts for this current situation.

          1. My predictive text won't let me agree with you :D - I tried to write "fair point"
          2. I think you know that high inflation in a slowing economy is generally bad news
          3. Yes growth reduced by 1% pa for 15 years is not Armageddon but it is a huge cost in terms of increased taxes and reduced spending.

          It appears all the forecasts are predicting way more than a 1% loss per annum for hard Brexit.
        • surrey_commuter
          surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
          Joelsim wrote:
          Surrey Commuter wrote:
          Stevo 666 wrote:
            Surrey Commuter wrote:
            Stevo 666 wrote:
            [
            Let's also get some of these issues into perspective:
            - Weak pound. It has been lower than this vs the Euro as recently as 2009.
            fIr point
            - Inflation. Forecast to go up to between 2-3%. In the period 2008-2012 inclusive, the average CPI was 3.3%
            if wages do not go up then imported inflation is a problem
            - Reduced growth. Forecast for 2017 still shows GDP growth, albeit reduced to around 1%. In line with in main EU competitions and way above the reductions in GDP during the GFC. Some countries GDP went down by up to 5% yoy in that period.
            what the others are doing is irrelevant. We seemed to have shaved 1% off our growth rate
            1. What is an 'flr point'?
            2. We don't know that yet. Pretty sure wages did not go up in line with inflation in the period I mentiined and Armageddon was not triggered.
            3. Missing the point. We have had economic crises in the past and come through them. In terms of impact in growth, some were worse than the forecasts for this current situation.

            1. My predictive text won't let me agree with you :D - I tried to write "fair point"
            2. I think you know that high inflation in a slowing economy is generally bad news
            3. Yes growth reduced by 1% pa for 15 years is not Armageddon but it is a huge cost in terms of increased taxes and reduced spending.

            It appears all the forecasts are predicting way more than a 1% loss per annum for hard Brexit.

            But we save £8bn a year EU contributions which is probably equivalent to 0.5%
          • surrey_commuter
            surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
            Joelsim wrote:
            Stevo 666 wrote:
            Stevo 666 wrote:
            Joelsim wrote:
            Steve, in order to have any sector of industry to be safeguarded from the effects of a hard Brexit and in such still trade like it does in the single market now, needs the approval of at least the vast majority of all 27 nations which frankly isn't going to happen. As I have said until I'm blue in the face, which you consistently ignore the key objective is not to damage the EU 27 nations by giving the UK a special deal. Which part of that are you struggling to understand?
            You are missing the point entirely.

            Try reading the article as it appears that you haven't.

            What is is saying overall is that there are factors other than a deal with the EU that are relevant to the car industry in the UK. Anyone with some decent commercial experience will realise this. Yes, a deal with the EU is relevant but there are other factors, as demonstrated by the points about Turkey and Italy.

            Now can you answer my question about Italy.
            Joel, I'm interested in your views on how the Italian car industry has declined by 75% while Italy has been a full EU member.

            You going to answer?

            I have no idea. That was the FT article that I copied and pasted as you don't appear to like reading links.

            As always Google is your friend but it still requires you to read half a dozen high brown articles (not Wikipedia). Anyway the words of the original statement are ambiguous but the stats appear to be wrong and that in 20 years it has fallen from 1.5 million to 900,000. As to why - it seems to be because Fiat ( they are 90% of Italian car production) make cars that people do not want to buy.
          • Stevo_666
            Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
            Joelsim wrote:
            Stevo 666 wrote:
            Now can you answer my question about Italy.
            Joel, I'm interested in your views on how the Italian car industry has declined by 75% while Italy has been a full EU member.

            You going to answer?

            I have no idea. That was the FT article that I copied and pasted as you don't appear to like reading links.[/quote]
            Whenever I click on a FT link it asks me to subscribe. Try linking to sources that most of us can read straight off.

            Honest answer re: Italy. The point I am demonstrating here is that there are far more factors determining the success or failure of a commercial sector in a country than simply single market membership. You seem to think that is the be all and end all. It is not.

            Being in the Euro and restrictive Labour laws are probably part of the reason in this case btw.
            "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
          • Stevo_666
            Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
            Joelsim wrote:
            It appears all the forecasts are predicting way more than a 1% loss per annum for hard Brexit.
            Links please.
            "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
          • joelsim
            joelsim Posts: 7,552
            Stevo 666 wrote:
            Joelsim wrote:
            It appears all the forecasts are predicting way more than a 1% loss per annum for hard Brexit.
            Links please.

            Already posted further up this thread.
          • joelsim
            joelsim Posts: 7,552
            Try this one for starters.

            http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/arch ... ion-brexit
          • mamba80
            mamba80 Posts: 5,032
            Where is this £350m per week to spend on the NHS ????? (or anything else for that matter)

            https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... alth-chief
          • bobmcstuff
            bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
            Surrey Commuter wrote:
            As always Google is your friend but it still requires you to read half a dozen high brown articles (not Wikipedia).

            I know it's a typo but now I'm trying to imagine what a high brown article would be like.
          • surrey_commuter
            surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
            bobmcstuff wrote:
            Surrey Commuter wrote:
            As always Google is your friend but it still requires you to read half a dozen high brown articles (not Wikipedia).

            I know it's a typo but now I'm trying to imagine what a high brown article would be like.

            It is a snooker term or urban dictionary my have alternative suggestions
          • surrey_commuter
            surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
            Stevo 666 wrote:
            Joelsim wrote:
            Stevo 666 wrote:
            Now can you answer my question about Italy.
            Joel, I'm interested in your views on how the Italian car industry has declined by 75% while Italy has been a full EU member.

            You going to answer?

            I have no idea. That was the FT article that I copied and pasted as you don't appear to like reading links.
            Whenever I click on a FT link it asks me to subscribe. Try linking to sources that most of us can read straight off.

            Honest answer re: Italy. The point I am demonstrating here is that there are far more factors determining the success or failure of a commercial sector in a country than simply single market membership. You seem to think that is the be all and end all. It is not.

            Being in the Euro and restrictive Labour laws are probably part of the reason in this case btw.[/quote]

            See above - the numbers re made up nd Fiat make carp cars
          • joelsim
            joelsim Posts: 7,552
            And this one. Can't find more detail atm

            http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36561415
          • joelsim
            joelsim Posts: 7,552
            And this one. Figures beginning to look like Severe Shock.

            https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ... eu_web.pdf
          • Stevo_666
            Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
            Joelsim wrote:
            Try this one for starters.

            http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/arch ... ion-brexit
            Yep, this is the one where the forecasters make assumptions covering a period of 15 years in order to get to that size and range of GDP gap. You do realise it is impossible to forecast accurately that far ahead? The cannot even forecast accurately one year ahead.
            "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
          • joelsim
            joelsim Posts: 7,552
            Stevo 666 wrote:
            Joelsim wrote:
            Try this one for starters.

            http://www.cer.org.uk/publications/arch ... ion-brexit
            Yep, this is the one where the forecasters make assumptions covering a period of 15 years in order to get to that size and range of GDP gap. You do realise it is impossible to forecast accurately that far ahead? The cannot even forecast accurately one year ahead.

            Of course. But they all say pretty much the same thing Steve. Either they're all independently way out or there may just be something in it.

            There's a pattern.
          • Stevo_666
            Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
            Joelsim wrote:
            And this one. Figures beginning to look like Severe Shock.

            https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ... eu_web.pdf
            That one was part of the referendum campaign so there is material doubt over its objectivity.
            "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
          • joelsim
            joelsim Posts: 7,552
            Stevo 666 wrote:
            Joelsim wrote:
            And this one. Figures beginning to look like Severe Shock.

            https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ... eu_web.pdf
            That one was part of the referendum campaign so there is material doubt over its objectivity.

            Why? Let's sack Mark Carney too for mentioning that we will have to adjust to a smaller economy.
          • Stevo_666
            Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
            Joelsim wrote:
            And this one. Can't find more detail atm

            http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-e ... m-36561415
            Still not as much of an impact as the GFC which we did survive in case you haven't noticed. Dont forget, those figures in the forecasts are comparing GDP to the remain scenario and are not forecasts of absolute reductions in GDP.
            "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
          • Stevo_666
            Stevo_666 Posts: 61,428
            Joelsim wrote:
            Stevo 666 wrote:
            Joelsim wrote:
            And this one. Figures beginning to look like Severe Shock.

            https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/s ... eu_web.pdf
            That one was part of the referendum campaign so there is material doubt over its objectivity.

            Why? Let's sack Mark Carney too for mentioning that we will have to adjust to a smaller economy.
            Because they were trying to persuade people to remain. Its easy enough to take the most pessimistic set of assumptions in a range - you do it all the time, as I've been pointing out recently :wink:
            "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]

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