BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

wallace_and_gromit

Surrey Commuter wrote:

It seems everybody is banging on about Dutch disease http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexch ... d-and-fury

it contains an interesting analogy
Brexit is a little like Saudi Arabia swearing off the oil business, declaring it would rather work for an honest living even if that makes its people poorer

Well presumably the UK will eventually run out of things it can sell to balance the trade deficit, just as the Saudis will eventually run out of oil. Short term pain for long term benefit maybe? I don't know.

It would be amusing of over the next couple of years, UK inflation remained subdued and the economy prospered on the back of the lower exchange rate. WTF would we do then?

TheBigBean

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

Well presumably the UK will eventually run out of things it can sell to balance the trade deficit, just as the Saudis will eventually run out of oil. Short term pain for long term benefit maybe? I don't know.

It would be amusing of over the next couple of years, UK inflation remained subdued and the economy prospered on the back of the lower exchange rate. WTF would we do then?

There are 50k new build flats in London ready to be exported over the next few years. I am intrigued whether the fall in the pound may prevent Nine Elms disease as the Malaysians will now be able to stump up the cash when called. Although as their initial investment won't be looking as valuable that remains to be seen.

If things are going along tickety-boo then I imagine it will be hard Brexit all the way.

There is certainly one school of thought that Brexit has achieved something central banks have been trying for ages.

wallace_and_gromit

TheBigBean wrote:

There are 50k new build flats in London ready to be exported over the next few years.

If things are going along tickety-boo then I imagine it will be hard Brexit all the way.

Re first point, whilst new land is not being invented/grown, there does seem to be almost limitless scope for building flats etc. to flog overseas.

Re second point, let's hope the Three Amigos factor in that until we leave the EU, we still benefit from full access to the single market!

surrey_commuter

This is the first time I have seen Begret quantified. Bizarrely I find I have more contempt for a Begretter than I do a full on foam at the mouth scorched earth Brexiteer
http://www.economist.com/blogs/graphicd ... ly-chart-6

pinno

TheBigBean wrote:

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

Well ...then?

There...seen.

If things are going along tickety-boo then I imagine it will be hard Brexit all the way.

It's a good point.

Some good posts W and G. I am not sure I fully understand it all but it does open up a lot of questions. This adds to the speculation and uncertainty.

Someone will have to explain the rise in the FTSE yet the uncertainty has caused a drop in the value of the pound.

kingstongraham

Pinno wrote:

Someone will have to explain the rise in the FTSE yet the uncertainty had caused a drop in the value of the pound.

80% of the earnings of companies in the FTSE 100 are from outside the UK, so if the pound drops, their revenue goes up (in sterling).

Not sure about the FTSE 250.

pinno

Up, in general.



Notice the sharp fall July 16. Wasn't the referendum date set in February too?

surrey_commuter

Pinno wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

Well ...then?

There...seen.

If things are going along tickety-boo then I imagine it will be hard Brexit all the way.

It's a good point.

Some good posts W and G. I am not sure I fully understand it all but it does open up a lot of questions. This adds to the speculation and uncertainty.

Someone will have to explain the rise in the FTSE yet the uncertainty had caused a drop in the value of the pound.

I will take a stab at that. Economics is not science so there usually only theories not facts.
The pound is an easy one because it is the markets pricing in where they think the UK economy is going. They may be wrong but there is a tsunami of money saying they expect our economy to perform worse than they thought it would pre -referendum.

FTSE is being driven up by a number of fctors;
The pound falling makes UK shares cheaper for overseas buyers
A large component of the index is global companies who earn in other currencies but report in pounds, so profits will go up. This also means it is not a reflection of confidence in the UK economy.
when gilt/bond rates fall people switch money into shares

others will be along to add things and suggest where I have gone wrong

rick_chasey

Pinno wrote:

Up, in general.



Notice the sharp fall July 16. Wasn't the referendum date set in February too?

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

It'll be interesting to see what the markets think tomorrow.

FTSE 100 up just over 1.1%

Euro/Sterling down by just less than 1%

Probably to be expected.

FTSE since 2011


Same chart, but in $


Basically, FTSE has been flat in $$ (which is the currency in which most of the firms operate in) since Brexit vote.

FTSE also down nearly 5% since the day before the Brexit vote, in $

FTSE 250 is down 9.4% YTD in $

joelsim

TheBigBean wrote:

Wallace and Gromit wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

The workings of providing liquidity, especially in the Eurozone, lead me to a lot of head scratching and I concede I have never quite got my head it or around how much exposure Germany actually has to the rest due to this.

If you've got a lot of time and resolve, then a Google search of "Target 2 balances" would be helpful. I don't claim to understand anything more than the basics but the Bundesbank is owed shed loads by the Southern European central banks.

I did just that a while ago, but it is fairly impenetrable. I couldn't work out whether it is a complete and utter mess perched precariously on a precipice, or not. I saw a professor interviewed a number of years ago who made the point that Germany was in a mess because it had only two options both of which led to it ultimately underwriting all the Eurozone debt which was too big even for Germany. Of those two options, it chose the deal with it later option.

The trouble with finance is that it is hard to obtain reliable information because that information has a value.

Fancy Bears?

Or maybe even Fancy Bulls.

joelsim

On another note, I've just done my winter clothes shop before prices go up. 15 mins and 4 jumpers in TK Maxx. Job done.

TheBigBean

Joelsim wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

The trouble with finance is that it is hard to obtain reliable information because that information has a value.

Fancy Bears?

Or maybe even Fancy Bulls.

To give you some idea: my friend who works in a successful hedge fund doesn't have access to external e-mail, has regulated internet, has a tracker on his keyboard, goes through a metal detector on the way into work, is required to leave mobile phone in locker outside work, has the most aggressive actively pursued non-compete / garden leave clauses I've heard off, works in a company with an army of lawyers etc.

WADA probably insist that the password has at least one numeric character.

joelsim

TheBigBean wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

The trouble with finance is that it is hard to obtain reliable information because that information has a value.

Fancy Bears?

Or maybe even Fancy Bulls.

To give you some idea: my friend who works in a successful hedge fund doesn't have access to external e-mail, has regulated internet, has a tracker on his keyboard, goes through a metal detector on the way into work, is required to leave mobile phone in locker outside work, has the most aggressive actively pursued non-compete / garden leave clauses I've heard off, works in a company with an army of lawyers etc.

WADA probably insist that the password has at least one numeric character.

That's why I feed cats nowadays. Can't be doing with all that malarkey. Not my bag.

(Although to be honest it was a little more laissez-faire in all the ad agencies I worked for).

ugo.santalucia

low pound, if oil price was to go up and fuel hit 1.50 or more a litre, that, combined with rocketing food prices, people will take the streets and it will be the end of this Brexit nonsense.

The way I see it, it's 50/50

surrey_commuter

ugo.santalucia wrote:

low pound, if oil price was to go up and fuel hit 1.50 or more a litre, that, combined with rocketing food prices, people will take the streets and it will be the end of this Brexit nonsense.

The way I see it, it's 50/50

I imagine the rumpus will start at 1.20 a litre. Demands will be made that something must be done!!! Would be funny if May told them this is what they voted for.

joelsim

It's a sad state of affairs when it takes something like these to make dullards realise. But of course you're right. They aren't getting this info in The Daily Express, The Daily Heil, or on Gogglebox.

What we really need is the price of a pint to go up by 20%. They'd soon understand.

joelsim

Surrey Commuter wrote:

ugo.santalucia wrote:

low pound, if oil price was to go up and fuel hit 1.50 or more a litre, that, combined with rocketing food prices, people will take the streets and it will be the end of this Brexit nonsense.

The way I see it, it's 50/50

I imagine the rumpus will start at 1.20 a litre. Demands will be made that something must be done!!! Would be funny if May told them this is what they voted for.

Judging by May's face when Angus Fraser asked her about 'unpleasant' Tory immigrant rhetoric in the Commons today, I very much doubt this will happen. I was scared just watching. Don't be surprised if he has an unexpected heart attack in the coming weeks.

orraloon

Diesel at the BP on A34 before the M40 junction at 1.27 pl this afternoon. OK, so is one of the most expensive locations in the western hemisphere but has inc by 10p or thereabouts in past week. More to come no doubt as the rise in crude price and the continuing slide of the £ vs $ combine.

mamba80

Joelsim wrote:

It's a sad state of affairs when it takes something like these to make dullards realise. But of course you're right. They aren't getting this info in The Daily Express, The Daily Heil, or on Gogglebox.

What we really need is the price of a pint to go up by 20%. They'd soon understand.

when you cannot buy your Marmite, then something MUST be done.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ling-pound

joelsim

Same article here.

https://www.ft.com/content/58560c1e-909 ... 778b55a923


The key is the last bit. Tesco don't want to harm their customers (especially given the competition nowadays) and the suppliers are not at fault either.

It's all a bit s*it.

Stevo_666

Joelsim wrote:

What we really need is the price of a pint to go up by 20%. They'd soon understand.

That's just spiteful. I'm sure its not just Brexit voters who drink beer.

I've said before that it as if you want bad things to happen to the economy so you can say 'I told you so'. And we've got over 2 more years of this thread before we even leave...

joelsim

Stevo 666 wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

What we really need is the price of a pint to go up by 20%. They'd soon understand.

That's just spiteful. I'm sure its not just Brexit voters who drink beer.

I've said before that it as if you want bad things to happen to the economy so you can say 'I told you so'. And we've got over 2 more years of this thread before we even leave...

No spite in it Steve. Simply making the point that something of this order of magnitude would actually make them think outside of the confines of their usual thought processes.

Stevo_666

Joelsim wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

What we really need is the price of a pint to go up by 20%. They'd soon understand.

That's just spiteful. I'm sure its not just Brexit voters who drink beer.

I've said before that it as if you want bad things to happen to the economy so you can say 'I told you so'. And we've got over 2 more years of this thread before we even leave...

No spite in it Steve. Simply making the point that something of this order of magnitude would actually make them think outside of the confines of their usual thought processes.

You sure about that JS?

The Tory lead is increasing. It is generally known that a hard Brexit will have a worse economic effect than a soft Brexit so you would expect this to have the opposite effect to what it actually has done:
http://www.ukpolitical.info/General_election_polls.htm

Also the same thought processes may not apply, particularly if the EU or certain EU countries get apportioned a share of the blame for negative events.

pinno

The fact that Marmite will be hard to get whilst the supplier/buyer issue is still on going will split the public opinion 48//52.





I'll get my coat.

bendertherobot

Fortunately Ben and Jerrys is potentially less divisive and, one might think, that this will really hurt the 52%. Or are the 48% more likely to be left leaning Ben and Jerry's original vision subscribers? Or did they leave because of Unilever. Or are the 48% really more into Haagen Dazs?

joelsim

Pinno wrote:

The fact that Marmite will be hard to get whilst the supplier/buyer issue is still on going will split the public opinion 48//52.





I'll get my coat.

Very good Pinno.

joelsim

Stevo 666 wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Joelsim wrote:

What we really need is the price of a pint to go up by 20%. They'd soon understand.

That's just spiteful. I'm sure its not just Brexit voters who drink beer.

I've said before that it as if you want bad things to happen to the economy so you can say 'I told you so'. And we've got over 2 more years of this thread before we even leave...

No spite in it Steve. Simply making the point that something of this order of magnitude would actually make them think outside of the confines of their usual thought processes.

You sure about that JS?

The Tory lead is increasing. It is generally known that a hard Brexit will have a worse economic effect than a soft Brexit so you would expect this to have the opposite effect to what it actually has done:
http://www.ukpolitical.info/General_election_polls.htm

Also the same thought processes may not apply, particularly if the EU or certain EU countries get apportioned a share of the blame for negative events.

I don't believe we can trust the public to come up with the right decision Steve. A good proportion of them are total f*ckwits. sad but true.

Hence my comment about a pint. It'll take something that they can relate to to make them think.

mamba80

amazing that a party that prides its self on "economic competence" (why thy ve that rep is a mystery though, given their history) is intent on taking the UK down this path with absolutely no way of knowing how it will pan out.

i wonder what it would take for T May do to the biggest U turn in political history and cancel A50 ?

joelsim

This is Trump. In the UK.

Loads of muppets who know nothing, nor do they actually want to know anything.

But actually when it happens they may possibly start to think. Or they may not.

Goes back to my point a few days ago. How is there so much difference in the intelligence of human beings? Some are more stupid than dogs.

narbs

Joelsim wrote:

This is Trump. In the UK.

Loads of muppets who know nothing, nor do they actually want to know anything.

But actually when it happens they may possibly start to think. Or they may not.

Goes back to my point a few days ago. How is there so much difference in the intelligence of human beings? Some are more stupid than dogs.

It's true. We've dumbed down the real value of education for so long that we're left with a large proportion of the population who have no interest in anything outside their own experience.

I actually felt sorry for the chap in the James O'Brien LBC vid that's been doing the rounds in the last couple of days. He's decided he doesn't like EU laws but can't actually name one he will be glad to be rid of. It's easy to rip apart if you want to but the Mail, the Express, the Sun, your mates down the pub won't do it. So it becomes a valid opinion.

To see Gove, who was one of the most cerebral members of the last government, dismiss the value of real experts, was a particular low of the referendum campaign. And he had some stiff competition.

EDIT - clearly I mean stiff competition for low points in the campaign, not as a clever member of the last govt.