BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Exit poll.


    FG 22.4%
    SF 22.3%
    FF 22.2%

    Thats first prefs

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,329
    tailwindhome said:

    Exit poll.


    FG 22.4%
    SF 22.3%
    FF 22.2%

    Thats first prefs

    Fek me! I thought Brexit was tight.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,411
    rjsterry said:

    Like I said: Varadkar got what he wanted, we've agreed to a customs border between two parts of our own territory. Keep claiming it as a win if you like.

    Where am I claiming a win? Just saying Varadkar has lost out.

    That's twice you haven't read stuff properly today. Do keep up at the back ;)
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    On exit polls 1% said Brexit was their top issue.

    Among SF voters it was 0%

    I think the correct take is that rightly or wrongly, whoever gets the blame or the credit, for the Irish Voter Brexit is 'done'

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,411
    tailwindhome said:

    On exit polls 1% said Brexit was their top issue.

    Among SF voters it was 0%

    I think the correct take is that rightly or wrongly, whoever gets the blame or the credit, for the Irish Voter Brexit is 'done'

    That could well tie in with what I said above about what Varadkar was focusing on.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Interesting dynamic in the Irish Election.

    SF only put up 42 (iirc) candidates and have been caught out by their own success.

    This has led to situations such as SF leader Mary Lou McDonald as the only SF candidate in her constituency, topping the ballot but with no running mate to transfer her huge surplus too.

    Not giving SF a chance to remedy this error will be a motivating factor in the inevitable coalition talks
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Stevo_666 said:

    tailwindhome said:

    On exit polls 1% said Brexit was their top issue.

    Among SF voters it was 0%

    I think the correct take is that rightly or wrongly, whoever gets the blame or the credit, for the Irish Voter Brexit is 'done'

    That could well tie in with what I said above about what Varadkar was focusing on.
    Yes and no.

    It required focus as it was a huge issue before it was sorted to Irish satisfaction, now that it is sorted it's disappeared from the agenda.

    Some analysis suggesting it was a strategic error having the election now instead if waiting until the trade talks ramp up.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661

    Question for the ignorant; are any of the likely outcomes going to materially change the Irish geopolitical position?
    _
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    edited February 2020
    rick_chasey said:


    Question for the ignorant; are any of the likely outcomes going to materially change the Irish geopolitical position?

    Outside of the GB/Ireland/NI relationship not significantly no.
    I wouldn't think it makes any difference to the Brexit Phase 2 negotiations either.

    Though my knowledge of ROI politics is fairly basic
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    More than mine.

    The only thing I can really see is that if Sinn Fein do end up as part of the coalition all the British government is going to do is point at them and blame them for everything bad.
    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,554
    Odd interview with someone on Today this morning. I didn't catch who it was, but I'd guess someone from Fine Gael, and they appeared to be arguing that just because SF got the largest share of votes, didn't mean they'd be getting anywhere near government. I think they used the words "this is not a breakthrough".🤔
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • bompington
    bompington Posts: 7,674
    Interesting view on it here
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rjsterry said:

    Odd interview with someone on Today this morning. I didn't catch who it was, but I'd guess someone from Fine Gael, and they appeared to be arguing that just because SF got the largest share of votes, didn't mean they'd be getting anywhere near government. I think they used the words "this is not a breakthrough".🤔

    I think there is a problem in that they did not put up enough candidates so can not benefit from passing on a surplus. I know next to nothing about the Irish political system so this may be totally wrong
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    One of the issues is that projected seat share means a coalition of any two of the top three parties (FF/FG/SF) can only muster a majority of 4 or 5 seats. This leaves any government exposed to internal minority interests in the way that our last government was.
    This will be interesting in the EU/UK negotiations, or any EU summits as the use of the Irish veto can be accessible to both left and right wing interests. And of course Ireland has form for rejecting EU treaties.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Since Stevo isn't here to make the joke, I shall.

    It's quite something to see how well Sinn Fein have done, considering their past association with Jeremy Corbyn.
    _
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    rick_chasey said:

    More than mine.

    The only thing I can really see is that if Sinn Fein do end up as part of the coalition all the British government is going to do is point at them and blame them for everything bad.

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    edited February 2020
    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    Odd interview with someone on Today this morning. I didn't catch who it was, but I'd guess someone from Fine Gael, and they appeared to be arguing that just because SF got the largest share of votes, didn't mean they'd be getting anywhere near government. I think they used the words "this is not a breakthrough".🤔

    I think there is a problem in that they did not put up enough candidates so can not benefit from passing on a surplus. I know next to nothing about the Irish political system so this may be totally wrong
    Nope, you're spot on.
    Estimates on Sunday were that they could have had 6 more seats.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    tailwindhome said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    Odd interview with someone on Today this morning. I didn't catch who it was, but I'd guess someone from Fine Gael, and they appeared to be arguing that just because SF got the largest share of votes, didn't mean they'd be getting anywhere near government. I think they used the words "this is not a breakthrough".🤔

    I think there is a problem in that they did not put up enough candidates so can not benefit from passing on a surplus. I know next to nothing about the Irish political system so this may be totally wrong
    Nope, you're spot on.
    Estimates on Sunday were that they could have had 6 more seats.
    and is that because they did not expect to do that well?
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    surrey_commuter said:

    tailwindhome said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    Odd interview with someone on Today this morning. I didn't catch who it was, but I'd guess someone from Fine Gael, and they appeared to be arguing that just because SF got the largest share of votes, didn't mean they'd be getting anywhere near government. I think they used the words "this is not a breakthrough".🤔

    I think there is a problem in that they did not put up enough candidates so can not benefit from passing on a surplus. I know next to nothing about the Irish political system so this may be totally wrong
    Nope, you're spot on.
    Estimates on Sunday were that they could have had 6 more seats.
    and is that because they did not expect to do that well?
    Yup

    In May's council and EU elections they lost half their seats.

    I seen on twitter a journalist reposted an article from the start of the campaign projecting that on a 'good day' they'd retain 20 of their 22 seats. They're currently on 37

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,411
    rick_chasey said:

    Since Stevo isn't here to make the joke, I shall.

    It's quite something to see how well Sinn Fein have done, considering their past association with Jeremy Corbyn.

    :)
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,350
    Oops. Another of the big lies has been admitted. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/checks-on-eu-bound-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders

    Build the wall. Oh, and a bridge, to divert the attention from the wall.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/boris-johnson-northern-ireland-scotland-bridge-plan-being-actively-looked-into-no-10
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 17,349
    Stevo_666 said:

    Pross said:

    So if I'm reading that correctly we previously had 11% of all our trade through 100% of those EU agreements and we have therefore lost 25% of them along with, potentially, the 50% or so of our overall trade that was with the EU. 🤔

    We haven't finished yet - and not bad going considering we've only been 'out' for 3 days
    ...
    the deals so far were not agreed in three days, more like three years
    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,411
    edited February 2020
    briantrumpet said:

    Oops. Another of the big lies has been admitted. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/checks-on-eu-bound-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders

    Build the wall. Oh, and a bridge, to divert the attention from the wall.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/boris-johnson-northern-ireland-scotland-bridge-plan-being-actively-looked-into-no-10

    A bit like the checks on all inbound non-EU goods that we already have? Those work quite well and we're just levelling the playing field globally.

    As for the bridge, well isn't that infrastructure investment, which should be a good thing?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,411
    sungod said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    Pross said:

    So if I'm reading that correctly we previously had 11% of all our trade through 100% of those EU agreements and we have therefore lost 25% of them along with, potentially, the 50% or so of our overall trade that was with the EU. 🤔

    We haven't finished yet - and not bad going considering we've only been 'out' for 3 days
    ...
    the deals so far were not agreed in three days, more like three years
    Fear not, there will be more to come.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    On the bridge - I posted it when it was last mentioned - all experts agree it is an impossible build.
    _
  • darkhairedlord
    darkhairedlord Posts: 7,180
    rick_chasey said:

    On the bridge - I posted it when it was last mentioned - all experts agree it is an impossible build.

    It will open just in time for independent scotland to trade with a United Ireland. Call it a parting gift...
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,350
    Stevo_666 said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Oops. Another of the big lies has been admitted. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/checks-on-eu-bound-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders

    Build the wall. Oh, and a bridge, to divert the attention from the wall.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/boris-johnson-northern-ireland-scotland-bridge-plan-being-actively-looked-into-no-10

    A bit like the checks on all inbound non-EU goods that we already have? Those work quite well and we're just levelling the playing field globally.

    As for the bridge, well isn't that infrastructure investment, which should be a good thing?

    I'm assuming you're not denying it was a big lie then. And you seem to be saying that making trading harder with your closest neighbour is a good idea, as that comes under 'levelling the playing field'.

    As for the bridge... it would be quite nice if they could get the railway line to SW England a bit more reliable first. Though it wouldn't be quite such a big shiny thing to grab the headlines.
    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    briantrumpet said:

    Oops. Another of the big lies has been admitted. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/checks-on-eu-bound-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders

    Build the wall. Oh, and a bridge, to divert the attention from the wall.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/boris-johnson-northern-ireland-scotland-bridge-plan-being-actively-looked-into-no-10

    Good to see the Rwanda style deal is on the table

    It does seem bizarre that people were so scared of JCs economic policies

  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,554
    edited February 2020
    Stevo_666 said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Oops. Another of the big lies has been admitted. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/checks-on-eu-bound-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders

    Build the wall. Oh, and a bridge, to divert the attention from the wall.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/boris-johnson-northern-ireland-scotland-bridge-plan-being-actively-looked-into-no-10

    A bit like the checks on all inbound non-EU goods that we already have? Those work quite well and we're just levelling the playing field globally.

    As for the bridge, well isn't that infrastructure investment, which should be a good thing?
    The garden bridge is more likely to happen.

    If the chairman of the country's leading customs clearance software supplier is not impressed with Gove's comments, I would suggest that it isn't just levelling the playing field.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,411
    briantrumpet said:

    Stevo_666 said:

    briantrumpet said:

    Oops. Another of the big lies has been admitted. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/checks-on-eu-bound-goods-inevitable-gove-tells-business-leaders

    Build the wall. Oh, and a bridge, to divert the attention from the wall.
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/feb/10/boris-johnson-northern-ireland-scotland-bridge-plan-being-actively-looked-into-no-10

    A bit like the checks on all inbound non-EU goods that we already have? Those work quite well and we're just levelling the playing field globally.

    As for the bridge, well isn't that infrastructure investment, which should be a good thing?

    I'm assuming you're not denying it was a big lie then. And you seem to be saying that making trading harder with your closest neighbour is a good idea, as that comes under 'levelling the playing field'.

    As for the bridge... it would be quite nice if they could get the railway line to SW England a bit more reliable first. Though it wouldn't be quite such a big shiny thing to grab the headlines.
    I don't recall anyone saying there would be no checks whatsoever. Any form of Brexit would require some degree of checks. But these really aren't onerous - there are no significant delays clearing non-EU goods through customs, we do it every day.

    In any event it's less of a lie than pointlessly chanting something about building a wall.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]

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