BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

tailwindhome

surrey_commuter said:

tailwindhome said:

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

Odd interview with someone on Today this morning. I didn't catch who it was, but I'd guess someone from Fine Gael, and they appeared to be arguing that just because SF got the largest share of votes, didn't mean they'd be getting anywhere near government. I think they used the words "this is not a breakthrough".🤔

I think there is a problem in that they did not put up enough candidates so can not benefit from passing on a surplus. I know next to nothing about the Irish political system so this may be totally wrong

Nope, you're spot on.
Estimates on Sunday were that they could have had 6 more seats.

and is that because they did not expect to do that well?

Brilliant wee bit of data visualization here.

https://ge2020.reviewireland.com/stv/?council=ireland&ward=dublin-bay-north&year=2020

In Dublin Bay North the quota was 11,935

Sinn Fein's D Mitchell had 21344 first preference votes with no running mate to transfer her surplus too.

tailwindhome

Another interesting one on that is Dublin West

https://ge2020.reviewireland.com/stv/?council=ireland&ward=dublin-west&year=2020

Varadkar's constituency.

The quota is 8726

Leo gets 8478 first preference votes - so becomes the first sitting Taoiseach not to be re elected on the first count. But, as you move through each stage of the count you see he has a problem, while only being 248 short of the quota he's getting few transfers from either surpluses or eliminations.

Pross

morstar said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Pross said:

Stevo_666 said:

Jeremy.89 said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

They should dig a tunnel as well, for when the bridge has to close because of the weather like the QE2 bridge the other day.

Tunnel sounds more sensible and has some backing here:
https://belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/forget-bridge-tunnel-best-way-to-link-northern-ireland-and-great-britain-say-experts-38836107.html

Although I'm sure if we were having this debate 30 years ago, some people would be saying that a 20-odd mile tunnel under the sea is not feasible...

You mean two years after construction had started? I don't think it's the technical possibility that is the real concern. Its the fact that the practicalities don't seem to stack up. You're looking at a massive detour compared to the most popular ferry routes, which will all require many miles of improved roads, through sparsely populated areas.

Of course, I imagine the civil engineering consultancies are wetting themselves with excitement.

Good to see the Cake Stop mentality is still alive and kicking

I work in the industry so would be more than happy for money to be thrown at it. I wouldn't be directly involved but giving the big boys something like that to play with keeps them away from smaller schemes that my company works on.

I still think it's a ridiculous plan and the money would be better spent on improving the existing road and rail links to the ports. It's the equivalent of building the Channel Tunnel from Norfolk to northern Holland.

However the first project that should have been announced was a Hull to Liverpool east-west HS train line

100% yes.
You can justify HS2 in isolation as adding benefits but it is 100% not the most important project.
Travel from north to London is already fast and efficient.
Cross country not so. Umpteen changes on slow lines and largely poor quality rolling stock. This is a route that links some of England’s biggest cities and literally scores of sizeable towns.

Don't be silly, how can any journey that doesn't start or finish in London be important?

morstar

Pross said:

morstar said:

coopster_the_1st said:

Pross said:

Stevo_666 said:

Jeremy.89 said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

They should dig a tunnel as well, for when the bridge has to close because of the weather like the QE2 bridge the other day.

Tunnel sounds more sensible and has some backing here:
https://belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/northern-ireland/forget-bridge-tunnel-best-way-to-link-northern-ireland-and-great-britain-say-experts-38836107.html

Although I'm sure if we were having this debate 30 years ago, some people would be saying that a 20-odd mile tunnel under the sea is not feasible...

You mean two years after construction had started? I don't think it's the technical possibility that is the real concern. Its the fact that the practicalities don't seem to stack up. You're looking at a massive detour compared to the most popular ferry routes, which will all require many miles of improved roads, through sparsely populated areas.

Of course, I imagine the civil engineering consultancies are wetting themselves with excitement.

Good to see the Cake Stop mentality is still alive and kicking

I work in the industry so would be more than happy for money to be thrown at it. I wouldn't be directly involved but giving the big boys something like that to play with keeps them away from smaller schemes that my company works on.

I still think it's a ridiculous plan and the money would be better spent on improving the existing road and rail links to the ports. It's the equivalent of building the Channel Tunnel from Norfolk to northern Holland.

However the first project that should have been announced was a Hull to Liverpool east-west HS train line

100% yes.
You can justify HS2 in isolation as adding benefits but it is 100% not the most important project.
Travel from north to London is already fast and efficient.
Cross country not so. Umpteen changes on slow lines and largely poor quality rolling stock. This is a route that links some of England’s biggest cities and literally scores of sizeable towns.

Don't be silly, how can any journey that doesn't start or finish in London be important?

That is a problem.
When they mooted moving parliament out of Westminster, they should have put it in major cities that are freaking nightmares to travel between on consecutive days.
That might have opened a few eyes.

TheBigBean

tailwindhome said:

surrey_commuter said:

tailwindhome said:

surrey_commuter said:

rjsterry said:

Odd interview with someone on Today this morning. I didn't catch who it was, but I'd guess someone from Fine Gael, and they appeared to be arguing that just because SF got the largest share of votes, didn't mean they'd be getting anywhere near government. I think they used the words "this is not a breakthrough".🤔

I think there is a problem in that they did not put up enough candidates so can not benefit from passing on a surplus. I know next to nothing about the Irish political system so this may be totally wrong

Nope, you're spot on.
Estimates on Sunday were that they could have had 6 more seats.

and is that because they did not expect to do that well?

Brilliant wee bit of data visualization here.

https://ge2020.reviewireland.com/stv/?council=ireland&ward=dublin-bay-north&year=2020

In Dublin Bay North the quota was 11,935

Sinn Fein's D Mitchell had 21344 first preference votes with no running mate to transfer her surplus too.

That's a complicated voting system.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean said:

That's a complicated voting system.

I think it's time consuming rather than complicated, the count took about 2 days.
Which sounds a lot - but it is in theory a 5 year parliament - what odds an extra day?

For the voter the principle is easy, rank your candidates in order until you get to one you hate too much to give a potential transfer too.

For the parties quota management is key.
A well organised ground game can convert votes to seats more efficiently.

rick_chasey

I don't think that going north is all that efficient. It's fine up the east coast but anything other that is a total pain. That east coast line is also littered with problems.

morstar

West coast line has been consistently reliable whenever I use it with the odd exception.
Not saying it’s perfect or that new service wouldn’t be better and couldn’t have a good case made.
But compare transport links to and from London with ones that cross the country and you are in Chalk and cheese territory.
Hence why imho HS2 is not the highest priority.

TheBigBean

tailwindhome said:

TheBigBean said:

That's a complicated voting system.

I think it's time consuming rather than complicated, the count took about 2 days.
Which sounds a lot - but it is in theory a 5 year parliament - what odds an extra day?

For the voter the principle is easy, rank your candidates in order until you get to one you hate too much to give a potential transfer too.

For the parties quota management is key.
A well organised ground game can convert votes to seats more efficiently.

It's always interesting to see how other countries do it. How do they come up with the quota number? I feel like having the same number across the country would have merit, but that is clearly not the case here.

morstar

https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/ld201415/ldselect/ldeconaf/134/13404.htm

Points 6 and 7 seem quite pertinent to the Londoncentric nature of HS2

briantrumpet

morstar said:

West coast line has been consistently reliable whenever I use it with the odd exception.
Not saying it’s perfect or that new service wouldn’t be better and couldn’t have a good case made.
But compare transport links to and from London with ones that cross the country and you are in Chalk and cheese territory.
Hence why imho HS2 is not the highest priority.

It's not dissimilar with France/Paris - the whole network seems to be set up with Paris as the central hub, and trying to traverse long distance between the 'spokes' takes for ever.

morstar

briantrumpet said:

morstar said:

West coast line has been consistently reliable whenever I use it with the odd exception.
Not saying it’s perfect or that new service wouldn’t be better and couldn’t have a good case made.
But compare transport links to and from London with ones that cross the country and you are in Chalk and cheese territory.
Hence why imho HS2 is not the highest priority.

It's not dissimilar with France/Paris - the whole network seems to be set up with Paris as the central hub, and trying to traverse long distance between the 'spokes' takes for ever.

I suspect it will always be the case that travel to any capital will always be easier. I wouldn’t argue that any cross country route is more important than London routes but my opinion is we are simply improving what is already a good service whilst ignoring bad routes that can add tangible improvements to a large region.

The select committee seems to agree.

TheBigBean

Worth noting that transport in London itself all goes into the centre. Very little going in the other directions.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean said:

tailwindhome said:

TheBigBean said:

That's a complicated voting system.

I think it's time consuming rather than complicated, the count took about 2 days.
Which sounds a lot - but it is in theory a 5 year parliament - what odds an extra day?

For the voter the principle is easy, rank your candidates in order until you get to one you hate too much to give a potential transfer too.

For the parties quota management is key.
A well organised ground game can convert votes to seats more efficiently.

It's always interesting to see how other countries do it. How do they come up with the quota number? I feel like having the same number across the country would have merit, but that is clearly not the case here.

The quota is the

(number of valid votes cast)/ (the number of seats in the constituency +1)

tailwindhome

Julian Smith sacked as NI Secretary.

Can't have someone competent in that role apparently.

TheBigBean

tailwindhome said:

TheBigBean said:

tailwindhome said:

TheBigBean said:

That's a complicated voting system.

I think it's time consuming rather than complicated, the count took about 2 days.
Which sounds a lot - but it is in theory a 5 year parliament - what odds an extra day?

For the voter the principle is easy, rank your candidates in order until you get to one you hate too much to give a potential transfer too.

For the parties quota management is key.
A well organised ground game can convert votes to seats more efficiently.

It's always interesting to see how other countries do it. How do they come up with the quota number? I feel like having the same number across the country would have merit, but that is clearly not the case here.

The quota is the

(number of valid votes cast)/ (the number of seats in the constituency +1)

Thanks for the explanation.

morstar

TheBigBean said:

Worth noting that transport in London itself all goes into the centre. Very little going in the other directions.

I acknowledged that is a natural feature of designing transport systems.
In a compact area, it can be very effective to go in to the centre and out again.
Becomes much less effective over greater distances.
Liverpool to Hull via London doesn’t quite work.

tailwindhome

McVey gone

elbowloh

Yes, the railways have always been built so that London is the centre. Lines are generally built in pairs. The line going to London is the "Up Line", even if you are heading south from the north. The line heading out of London is the "Down Line" even if you're heading up north.

TheBigBean

morstar said:

TheBigBean said:

Worth noting that transport in London itself all goes into the centre. Very little going in the other directions.

I acknowledged that is a natural feature of designing transport systems.
In a compact area, it can be very effective to go in to the centre and out again.
Becomes much less effective over greater distances.
Liverpool to Hull via London doesn’t quite work.

I don't think that is true. In London, depending on the journey, you would have to take a bus. Sometimes several buses. It is rarely worth going into the centre and out again in the same way it isn't worth it for Liverpool to Hull.

elbowloh

TheBigBean said:

Worth noting that transport in London itself all goes into the centre. Very little going in the other directions.

I was saying that just to other day to a visitor to our (london) office who had come down from Oldham. No matter where you need to go, a lot of the time you need to go in to London centre and then out again, often with a tube connection inbetween.

rjsterry

tailwindhome said:

Julian Smith sacked as NI Secretary.

Can't have someone competent in that role apparently.

That's a shame. He seemed to be a vast improvement on his predecessor.

rjsterry

Re: Julian Smith. Lots of muttering about army veterans on Twitter, and the support they have with backbenchers. Also, Alex seems to hold a grudge against anyone who isn't fawningly loyal.

tailwindhome

Javid quit when told to sack his own advisors

Replaced by Rishi Sunak who is willing to do what he's told

rjsterry

Very much a yes-man cabinet, it seems.

rick_chasey

Brexit did chuck out most of the tory talent.

morstar

elbowloh said:

TheBigBean said:

Worth noting that transport in London itself all goes into the centre. Very little going in the other directions.

I was saying that just to other day to a visitor to our (london) office who had come down from Oldham. No matter where you need to go, a lot of the time you need to go in to London centre and then out again, often with a tube connection inbetween.

But HS2 will have no impact on this either.
I think we can all acknowledge that some journeys (typically towards a major centre) are often easier than traversing routes.
That doesn’t make HS2 the most effective spend. It benefits travel to London and little else when this is one of the easiest routes to travel already. The capacity argument is undermined in my earlier link.

surrey_commuter

tailwindhome said:

Javid quit when told to sack his own advisors

Replaced by Rishi Sunak who is willing to do what he's told

made up argument - he needs a patsy to allow his ludicrous spending plans

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

tailwindhome said:

Javid quit when told to sack his own advisors

Replaced by Rishi Sunak who is willing to do what he's told

made up argument - he needs a patsy to allow his ludicrous spending plans

Suspect it is to do with Brexit too; Javid may be a public muppet but he campaign for remain and Cummings will not have forgiven him for that.

coopster_the_1st

tailwindhome said:

Javid quit when told to sack his own advisors

Replaced by Rishi Sunak who is willing to do what he's told

Seems the pound liked this change which if you follow the logic of some/many remoaners on here that means this is seen as a positive change.

Or are those same remoaners about to rubbish their own arguments?