BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
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Sterling depreciated against the US Dollar in the period whereas the Euro appreciated against the dollar over the same period. So giving the impression of negative UK growth, which is simply not the case.pblakeney said:Which is why I used a common neutral currency to smooth out currency fluctuations.
Lies, damned lies, and statistics, eh?
How convenient."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
It could be asked why did the Pound drop and the Euro rise?
Not so convenient?The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
That's quite a fake recession your figures are attempting to portray with roughly a 20% reduction in GDP.pblakeney said:
See, you made me look. Now look at the actual figures, not forecasts.coopster_the_1st said:
How much did France undershoot in 2019 the forecast that was made in 2016?pblakeney said:
If we are talking GDP then France is close enough to use as a comparison.kingstongraham said:
We'd need one country of the UK's size to leave and other countries of a similar size to remain for it to be reliable.rjsterry said:
You could demonstrate a causal link by identifying and isolating all the other possible contributing factors. To do this you would need a representative group of willing volunteers to follow the same lifestyle changes plus a control group.kingstongraham said:If I stop exercising and start drinking heavily, I predict a result would be that my general health will be worse. If I were in that reality, I couldn't be certain that the two were related, because I wouldn't know that I wouldn't have been caught in a collapsing building and been in a coma.
If we split the country with one half leaving and the other remaining, we could answer the question fairly conclusively.
I'm too lazy to do the comparison though.
You are intentionally trying to mislead if you take the UK forecasts if we had remained as gospel. None of the forecasts predicted the global slowdown that affected advanced economies in 2018/19
France GDP 2016 2.465t USD, 2018 2.780t USD.
UK GDP 2016 2.651t USD, 2018 2.110t USD.
Figures for 2019 are not available yet.
Now how has it been in the real world rather than your made up manipulation?
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How unfortunate is it that they are the real genuine figures then?The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Reasons not related to GDP growth - as you can see from the figures that don't include FX distortions.pblakeney said:It could be asked why did the Pound drop and the Euro rise?
Not so convenient?
Do you really think that UK GDP fell in that period without any recession?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
In relation to other currencies? Yes, clearly.
This is the World that we live in, not isolation, but in relation.
When we go to make great trade deals with the Trumpster what denomination will be most relevant?The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
As Stevo keeps pointing out, the argument whether we will be better/worse off in 5 years time is moot.
It is not as though Jim Bowen could walk on and announce,"This is what you could have won" is it?0 -
I thought we had moved on to reality.
Never mind, carry on with dreamscapes.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
The reality is that we will be leaving for better or worse.Get used to it.
Not my choice, not yours, but there it is.
Trying to work out some arbitrary scale of comparison is really futile.0 -
I accept it. I'm used to it. I don't have to like it.
The "aribitary scale" is the reality of today. Happy New Year!The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
If you pick a random foreign unit of measurement you can demonstrate a lot of things.pblakeney said:In relation to other currencies? Yes, clearly.
This is the World that we live in, not isolation, but in relation.
When we go to make great trade deals with the Trumpster what denomination will be most relevant?
Our functional currency is Sterling so that's how we measure UK GDP: any other currency is not relevant - unless you are trying to twist the facts."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Good way of summarising it.ballysmate said:The reality is that we will be leaving for better or worse.Get used to it.
Not my choice, not yours, but there it is.
Trying to work out some arbitrary scale of comparison is really futile.
I suspect however that the pointless arguments will not stop. For some, whingeing has become their 'raison d'etre'."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I don't think so. You may need to explain how you came to think that.surrey_commuter said:
but I was replying to your post... your second post was knocking the logic of your first postStevo_666 said:
At you. Not sure why you needed to ask as I quoted your post?surrey_commuter said:
Is that directed at me or yourself?Stevo_666 said:
Given the percentages and timescales they are unlikely to notice. That's before you consider there is no alternative timeline to compare to (I.e. no way they can see what it would have been like had we not left) - hence no reference point.surrey_commuter said:
The pleasantness of their surprise would be inversely proportionate to their understanding of compound growthStevo_666 said:
Looking at your point from the other angle, people may be pleasantly surprised at how little negative effect leaving the EU has on them. Contrary to the sort of scenarios put forward in here.thecycleclinic said:FTA agreements dont create alot of growth. The deal with the eu through membership gives a decent boost still only worth 1% or so of gdp I believe. It may be more but less than ones thinks. a gooddealwitht the usa will add maybe 0.2% to gdp. Not to besniffes at but nothing to get excited about either. Most of us wont notice. Trade with the rest of world is even less significant. Trade deals already exist with many coj tries through the eu so bilateral deals will be merely replacing existing deals but perhaps not on the same terms perhaps not as favourable for the u.k
If the point of leaving the eu is trade deals then the public are going to be disappointed at how little difference they make to public."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
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How is it moot? Don't understand that logic at all.ballysmate said:As Stevo keeps pointing out, the argument whether we will be better/worse off in 5 years time is moot.
It is not as though Jim Bowen could walk on and announce,"This is what you could have won" is it?
It is an actual choice.0 -
It WAS a choice for us to stay or go. Ship has sailed.rick_chasey said:
How is it moot? Don't understand that logic at all.ballysmate said:As Stevo keeps pointing out, the argument whether we will be better/worse off in 5 years time is moot.
It is not as though Jim Bowen could walk on and announce,"This is what you could have won" is it?
It is an actual choice.0 -
Staying in the single market is absolutely still a choice.ballysmate said:
It WAS a choice for us to stay or go. Ship has sailed.rick_chasey said:
How is it moot? Don't understand that logic at all.ballysmate said:As Stevo keeps pointing out, the argument whether we will be better/worse off in 5 years time is moot.
It is not as though Jim Bowen could walk on and announce,"This is what you could have won" is it?
It is an actual choice.0 -
And tbh, given the choice was fairly divisive, I think it's also legit to challenge the decision and evaluate the benefits and costs of said choice, versus what the alternative would have been.
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I would like to know why folk on the UK right are so hot on Orban, a wannabe autocrat who, afaik, his power structure depends on EU subsidies and investment from EU countries.0
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You think we could stay in SM without FOM?rick_chasey said:
Staying in the single market is absolutely still a choice.ballysmate said:
It WAS a choice for us to stay or go. Ship has sailed.rick_chasey said:
How is it moot? Don't understand that logic at all.ballysmate said:As Stevo keeps pointing out, the argument whether we will be better/worse off in 5 years time is moot.
It is not as though Jim Bowen could walk on and announce,"This is what you could have won" is it?
It is an actual choice.
Not gonna happen.0 -
No, but I have always maintained that deciding that FOM was somehow not possible post ref was a peculiar Mayism.0
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Maybe it has something to do with the EU repeatedly saying that you cant stay in the single market without accepting the other freedoms. Were they lying as surely the honest EU would not do that.rick_chasey said:No, but I have always maintained that deciding that FOM was somehow not possible post ref was a peculiar Mayism.
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Random? Like the main international trade currency?Stevo_666 said:
If you pick a random foreign unit of measurement you can demonstrate a lot of things.pblakeney said:In relation to other currencies? Yes, clearly.
This is the World that we live in, not isolation, but in relation.
When we go to make great trade deals with the Trumpster what denomination will be most relevant?
But yes, lies, damned lies, and statistics.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Eh? If it isn't obvious, the indivisible 4 freedoms is a given at this point in the discussion.john80 said:
Maybe it has something to do with the EU repeatedly saying that you cant stay in the single market without accepting the other freedoms. Were they lying as surely the honest EU would not do that.rick_chasey said:No, but I have always maintained that deciding that FOM was somehow not possible post ref was a peculiar Mayism.
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It is not a Mayism nor is it peculiar as per your prior post to realise that you can't have the single market without accepting FOM.rick_chasey said:
Eh? If it isn't obvious, the indivisible 4 freedoms is a given at this point in the discussion.john80 said:
Maybe it has something to do with the EU repeatedly saying that you cant stay in the single market without accepting the other freedoms. Were they lying as surely the honest EU would not do that.rick_chasey said:No, but I have always maintained that deciding that FOM was somehow not possible post ref was a peculiar Mayism.
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rick_chasey said:
No, but I have always maintained that deciding that FOM was somehow not possible post ref was a peculiar Mayism.
IIRC for a large part of this thread,people, perhaps including you, were saying that some of industries and services, particularly the NHS, would suffer post Brexit because EU citizens would no longer be able to come here under FOM.
It was accepted on here that FOM and the SM access went hand in hand. What has changed for you? Do yo really expect a 'softer' deal under Johnson than May?0 -
Not sure what you mean by the bolded bit.ballysmate said:rick_chasey said:No, but I have always maintained that deciding that FOM was somehow not possible post ref was a peculiar Mayism.
IIRC for a large part of this thread,people, perhaps including you, were saying that some of industries and services, particularly the NHS, would suffer post Brexit because EU citizens would no longer be able to come here under FOM.
It was accepted on here that FOM and the SM access went hand in hand. What has changed for you? Do yo really expect a 'softer' deal under Johnson than May?
FOM is obviously beneficial for everyone involved; economically at the very least.
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“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0
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If FOM is so obviously in everyones interest then please explain why no government has made a successful case for this in the last 20-30 years and it is deemed a significant issue for a significant amount of the population. The only thing going for it i can see is the obvious gdp increase purely related to headcount.rick_chasey said:
Not sure what you mean by the bolded bit.ballysmate said:rick_chasey said:No, but I have always maintained that deciding that FOM was somehow not possible post ref was a peculiar Mayism.
IIRC for a large part of this thread,people, perhaps including you, were saying that some of industries and services, particularly the NHS, would suffer post Brexit because EU citizens would no longer be able to come here under FOM.
It was accepted on here that FOM and the SM access went hand in hand. What has changed for you? Do yo really expect a 'softer' deal under Johnson than May?
FOM is obviously beneficial for everyone involved; economically at the very least.0 -
So 1920's Weimar Republic GDP growth must have been exceptional...Stevo_666 said:
If you pick a random foreign unit of measurement you can demonstrate a lot of things.pblakeney said:In relation to other currencies? Yes, clearly.
This is the World that we live in, not isolation, but in relation.
When we go to make great trade deals with the Trumpster what denomination will be most relevant?
Our functional currency is Sterling so that's how we measure UK GDP: any other currency is not relevant - unless you are trying to twist the facts.0
