BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

kingstongraham

TheBlueBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Zac Goldsmith to become a Lord and keep his cabinet job. Fair play, he's dragged himself to success from such deprived beginnings to only lose his seat twice. Deserves a helping hand up.

I always like the way that every successive government promises to stop bumping everyone up to the Lords and knighting their staff, and then they carrying on doing it.

"We will continue to support the First
Past the Post system of voting, as it
allows voters to kick out politicians
who don’t deliver, both locally and
nationally"

robert88

It's an ill wind.

Have just taken some very nice profits on the jolly old portfolio thanks to BJ and his mates.

I'm watching them like a hawk as I expect Trump-style volatility for months if not years to come and saving up for my personal Brexit out of the mad house.

New Zealand maybe?

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

The deadline is June 30th, so does 5 months still count as "challenging but achievable"?

The deadline in the withdrawal agreement is 30th June. Fairly sure they will find a way to avoid a cliff edge if the will is there. It will require unanimous consent - just like all the previous A50 extensions.

rjsterry

TheBlueBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Zac Goldsmith to become a Lord and keep his cabinet job. Fair play, he's dragged himself to success from such deprived beginnings to only lose his seat twice. Deserves a helping hand up.

I always like the way that every successive government promises to stop bumping everyone up to the Lords and knighting their staff, and then they carrying on doing it.

People's cabinet my a***.

rick_chasey

TheBlueBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Zac Goldsmith to become a Lord and keep his cabinet job. Fair play, he's dragged himself to success from such deprived beginnings to only lose his seat twice. Deserves a helping hand up.

I always like the way that every successive government promises to stop bumping everyone up to the Lords and knighting their staff, and then they carrying on doing it.

reforming the lords is probably necessary, but exceptionally difficult and not immediately obvious to the electorate when the benefit is. Tories tried in the coalition phase and it went t!ts up.

rick_chasey

robert88 said:

It's an ill wind.

Have just taken some very nice profits on the jolly old portfolio thanks to BJ and his mates.

I'm watching them like a hawk as I expect Trump-style volatility for months if not years to come and saving up for my personal Brexit out of the mad house.

New Zealand maybe?

What was in your portfolio, as any UK index would be flat from Thursday to today.

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

TheBlueBean said:

kingstongraham said:

Zac Goldsmith to become a Lord and keep his cabinet job. Fair play, he's dragged himself to success from such deprived beginnings to only lose his seat twice. Deserves a helping hand up.

I always like the way that every successive government promises to stop bumping everyone up to the Lords and knighting their staff, and then they carrying on doing it.

reforming the lords is probably necessary, but exceptionally difficult and not immediately obvious to the electorate when the benefit is. Tories tried in the coalition phase and it went t!ts up.

They could make the small tweak that if you don't up for X days a year, you cease to be a Lord. Just a starter.

surrey_commuter

TheBlueBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

The deadline is June 30th, so does 5 months still count as "challenging but achievable"?

The deadline in the withdrawal agreement is 30th June. Fairly sure they will find a way to avoid a cliff edge if the will is there. It will require unanimous consent - just like all the previous A50 extensions.

more complicated as it has to be agreed by some regional parliaments plus some very emotional issues such as fishing. I am not convinced that even Boris can cave far enough to get that done.

TheBigBean

surrey_commuter said:

TheBlueBean said:

surrey_commuter said:

The deadline is June 30th, so does 5 months still count as "challenging but achievable"?

The deadline in the withdrawal agreement is 30th June. Fairly sure they will find a way to avoid a cliff edge if the will is there. It will require unanimous consent - just like all the previous A50 extensions.

more complicated as it has to be agreed by some regional parliaments plus some very emotional issues such as fishing. I am not convinced that even Boris can cave far enough to get that done.

Time will tell. I would be surprised if it was extended in June, and I would be surprised if a full FTA was signed by Dec.

haydenm

rick_chasey said:

robert88 said:

It's an ill wind.

Have just taken some very nice profits on the jolly old portfolio thanks to BJ and his mates.

I'm watching them like a hawk as I expect Trump-style volatility for months if not years to come and saving up for my personal Brexit out of the mad house.

New Zealand maybe?

What was in your portfolio, as any UK index would be flat from Thursday to today.

No idea for Robert Woodford there but if he's in either an example UK property fund or a UK high dividend fund then he might be 3% or 4.99% up respectively, a modest 3% rise for the Schroders Public Private fund also but that might be due to other factors...

Jeremy.89

TheBlueBean said:

rjsterry said:

Ouch. I appreciate it's not exactly identical but it is similar enough to the thing he said he could never accept and has subsequently pretended that he still didn't accept.

It has a consent mechanism which, if you ignore every other change in the agreement, should be considered a material change. The mechanism isn't perfect, but it changes the whole deal in my view and legitimises it.

Boris compromised. As did the EU. It will happen again.

Both sides did compromise (although generally the bigger partner has to compromise less) , ultimately Boris went straight for striking through the red lines of his confidence and supply partners.

Probably should note that in general I'm relaxed about politicians being flexible and think setting out loads of red lines is an awful idea.

shortfall

robert88 said:

It's an ill wind.

Have just taken some very nice profits on the jolly old portfolio thanks to BJ and his mates.

I'm watching them like a hawk as I expect Trump-style volatility for months if not years to come and saving up for my personal Brexit out of the mad house.

New Zealand maybe?

Missing you already x

rjsterry

And there you have it. Straight from the No. 10 spokesperson: a slightly more polite version of "f*** business" as official policy.

rick_chasey

rjsterry said:

And there you have it. Straight from the No. 10 spokesperson: a slightly more polite version of "f*** business" as official policy.

??

rjsterry

rick_chasey said:

rjsterry said:

And there you have it. Straight from the No. 10 spokesperson: a slightly more polite version of "f*** business" as official policy.

??

In all circumstances we are leaving the single market and customs union, which means we are leaving the EU regime which is associated with that. Businesses will need to prepare for life outside the EU’s customs regime in all circumstances.

On the basis that there is only time for a bare bones trade deal we're being told to prepare for a cliff edge.

Jeremy.89

rjsterry said:

rick_chasey said:

rjsterry said:

And there you have it. Straight from the No. 10 spokesperson: a slightly more polite version of "f*** business" as official policy.

??

In all circumstances we are leaving the single market and customs union, which means we are leaving the EU regime which is associated with that. Businesses will need to prepare for life outside the EU’s customs regime in all circumstances.

On the basis that there is only time for a bare bones trade deal we're being told to prepare for a cliff edge.

Well that would seem to be their electoral mandate. Anyone that voted tory and wanted to avoid a cliff edge scenario wasn't paying attention.

rjsterry

There's also a load of stuff about tax cuts, reviving struggling towns and cities (there's a specific reference to boarded up shops) and levelling up spending. Which bits of the manifesto should we believe?

Jeremy.89

rjsterry said:

There's also a load of stuff about tax cuts, reviving struggling towns and cities (there's a specific reference to boarded up shops) and levelling up spending. Which bits of the manifesto should we believe?

Well none of those things are incompatible with each other, so I would expect to see all of them tried to some extent.

Whether they are successful and whether simultaneously giving tex cuts and increases on spending is a good idea, is another matter.

briantrumpet

rjsterry said:

And there you have it. Straight from the No. 10 spokesperson: a slightly more polite version of "f*** business" as official policy.

And I missed the brief window of the pound at 1.20€ before the markets realised what the Tories are now.

tailwindhome

https://twitter.com/peterkyle/status/1206994618530881536?s=20

Stevo_666

surrey_commuter said:

Can we get back to the question of why Cummings is setting himself up to fail and weakening his own negotiating position?

My view is that the move is to do a few things as the govt sees it:
1. Show the electorate that they mean to 'get Brexit done' as promised.
2. Put some pressure on the EU to get a move on when the negotiations start as they dont want a no deal situation.

Given the healthy commons majority they can always revoke the law that makes the extension illegal. Playing the game as I see it.

kingstongraham

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Can we get back to the question of why Cummings is setting himself up to fail and weakening his own negotiating position?

My view is that the move is to do a few things as the govt sees it:
1. Show the electorate that they mean to 'get Brexit done' as promised.
2. Put some pressure on the EU to get a move on when the negotiations start as they dont want a no deal situation.

Given the healthy commons majority they can always revoke the law that makes the extension illegal. Playing the game as I see it.

How does the pressure work when even you and I know it's a bluff?

1) is the only reason

surrey_commuter

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Can we get back to the question of why Cummings is setting himself up to fail and weakening his own negotiating position?

My view is that the move is to do a few things as the govt sees it:
1. Show the electorate that they mean to 'get Brexit done' as promised.
2. Put some pressure on the EU to get a move on when the negotiations start as they dont want a no deal situation.

Given the healthy commons majority they can always revoke the law that makes the extension illegal. Playing the game as I see it.

How does setting a deadline for yourself help anybody other than the person you are negotiating with?

surrey_commuter

briantrumpet said:

rjsterry said:

And there you have it. Straight from the No. 10 spokesperson: a slightly more polite version of "f*** business" as official policy.

And I missed the brief window of the pound at 1.20€ before the markets realised what the Tories are now.

We did warn you earlier.

If it was my money I would still make the trade, finding the best person to do the deal with will probably have a bigger impact on your finances.

The pound soared when the markets removed the Corbyn discount, now they have remembered Brexit is a bad idea and Boris is still a tvvat.

briantrumpet

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

rjsterry said:

And there you have it. Straight from the No. 10 spokesperson: a slightly more polite version of "f*** business" as official policy.

And I missed the brief window of the pound at 1.20€ before the markets realised what the Tories are now.

We did warn you earlier.

If it was my money I would still make the trade, finding the best person to do the deal with will probably have a bigger impact on your finances.

The pound soared when the markets removed the Corbyn discount, now they have remembered Brexit is a bad idea and Boris is still a tvvat.

It didn't take long for Johnson to remind them.

Stevo_666

kingstongraham said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Can we get back to the question of why Cummings is setting himself up to fail and weakening his own negotiating position?

My view is that the move is to do a few things as the govt sees it:
1. Show the electorate that they mean to 'get Brexit done' as promised.
2. Put some pressure on the EU to get a move on when the negotiations start as they dont want a no deal situation.

Given the healthy commons majority they can always revoke the law that makes the extension illegal. Playing the game as I see it.

How does the pressure work when even you and I know it's a bluff?

1) is the only reason

It may well be but we can't be sure. It certainly sets a time frame for the negotiations.

Stevo_666

And in other EU news, Poland may be forced to leave the EU if they press ahead with their judicial reforms:
https://bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50828516

Any more of these and it might start getting fashionable.

kingstongraham

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Can we get back to the question of why Cummings is setting himself up to fail and weakening his own negotiating position?

My view is that the move is to do a few things as the govt sees it:
1. Show the electorate that they mean to 'get Brexit done' as promised.
2. Put some pressure on the EU to get a move on when the negotiations start as they dont want a no deal situation.

Given the healthy commons majority they can always revoke the law that makes the extension illegal. Playing the game as I see it.

How does the pressure work when even you and I know it's a bluff?

1) is the only reason

It may well be but we can't be sure. It certainly sets a time frame for the negotiations.

Someone wise once said "Given the healthy commons majority they can always revoke the law that makes the extension illegal."

The timeframe for the negotiations is not set by this, it is set in the withdrawal agreement:
"ARTICLE 126
Transition period
There shall be a transition or implementation period, which shall start on the date of entry into force of this Agreement and end on 31 December 2020."
"ARTICLE 132
Extension of the transition period
1. Notwithstanding Article 126, the Joint Committee may, before 1 July 2020, adopt a single decision extending the transition period for up to 1 or 2 years."

rick_chasey

Stevo_666 said:

And in other EU news, Poland may be forced to leave the EU if they press ahead with their judicial reforms:
https://bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-50828516

Any more of these and it might start getting fashionable.

I think the bigger worry is Poland's shift towards a far right dictatorship but I'm glad you've got your priorities right.

rjsterry

kingstongraham said:

Stevo_666 said:

kingstongraham said:

Stevo_666 said:

surrey_commuter said:

Can we get back to the question of why Cummings is setting himself up to fail and weakening his own negotiating position?

My view is that the move is to do a few things as the govt sees it:
1. Show the electorate that they mean to 'get Brexit done' as promised.
2. Put some pressure on the EU to get a move on when the negotiations start as they dont want a no deal situation.

Given the healthy commons majority they can always revoke the law that makes the extension illegal. Playing the game as I see it.

How does the pressure work when even you and I know it's a bluff?

1) is the only reason

It may well be but we can't be sure. It certainly sets a time frame for the negotiations.

Someone wise once said "Given the healthy commons majority they can always revoke the law that makes the extension illegal."

The timeframe for the negotiations is not set by this, it is set in the withdrawal agreement:
"ARTICLE 126
Transition period
There shall be a transition or implementation period, which shall start on the date of entry into force of this Agreement and end on 31 December 2020."
"ARTICLE 132
Extension of the transition period
1. Notwithstanding Article 126, the Joint Committee may, before 1 July 2020, adopt a single decision extending the transition period for up to 1 or 2 years."

The EU have already clarified that if no extension is requested before 30th June, that's it: there's no scope for a panic extension in December.