BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

rjsterry

Don't misunderstand me; I'm very glad Corbyn isn't cobbling together a coalition with the Scots Nats. I just think your £3 would have been better donated to the Conservatives if that's the result you wanted. That might have actually generated some advantage. Undeniably it's given us something to talk about.

Longshot

A few random take aways from the GE for me.

1. The left wing has always believed that they know better than 'the people' what 'the people' want. They're pretty much always wrong.
2. Those who vote for the winning side are always painfully smug.
3. Most people won't notice the difference on a day to day basis.
4. Still no-one has explained in real terms what the benefits of Brexit are.

kingstongraham

Stevo_666 said:

Maybe I'll sign up for the Lib Dems next?

Please do. You only have 10 people to choose from, I don't think Farron will fancy another go so there's no total liabilities, they can't come up with a worse strategy, and could do with the cash.

pblakeney

Longshot said:

A few random take aways from the GE for me....
4. Still no-one has explained in real terms what the benefits of Brexit are.

This was covered in detail quite a few pages ago.
Blue passports and eh.... that’s about it.

rjsterry

This is worth reading

https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/publications/getting-uk-ready-next-phase-brexit-negotiations

There has been much talk over the past few years about getting the UK ready for leaving the EU without a deal. However, fundamentally, the government and civil service have a lot of work to do if they are to prepare to leave with a deal – especially given Boris Johnson’s deadline of the end of 2020. As it stands, the UK does not yet appear ‘match-fit’ for the next phase of negotiations.

The key point seems to be that the only way to achieve any trade deal by the end of next is to focus just on areas where the Commission and EU Parliament have exclusive competence. This would not require ratification by the other governments and would necessarily be a very narrow trade deal and not the wide-ranging, comprehensive zero-tariff, zero-quota deal promised.

rick_chasey

Pundits seem split on whether majority means softer or harder Brexit.

I do think it's odd Gove et al are promising the future trading agreement will be done in 2020. No-one who knows about this stuff is saying that is possible. I guess the electorate has said they don't care about that kind of false promise.

I mean, they have a majority so big they will have the full five years. Why give yourself self imposed time pressures?

TheBigBean

rick_chasey said:

Pundits seem split on whether majority means softer or harder Brexit.

I do think it's odd Gove et al are promising the future trading agreement will be done in 2020. No-one who knows about this stuff is saying that is possible. I guess the electorate has said they don't care about that kind of false promise.

I mean, they have a majority so big they will have the full five years. Why give yourself self imposed time pressures?

The Guardian reported the other day that the EU was looking to offer a cut price extension to try to get BoJo to agree. Also that the commission wanted to phase the negotiations, but a lot of EU countries were not keen - presumably based on the shambles last time around.

rick_chasey

In some respects it is a lot easier for the EU in the forthcoming deal making process. Tories have hung their hat on getting a deal done and have a big enough majority to ram more or less anything through, so in some ways the EU needs to be less concerned about how palatable the agreement needs to be for parliament.

It is also a more predictable leadership who can much more easily decide what will and won't be agreed - rather than all this agreeing and then rejecting.

surrey_commuter

Longshot said:

A few random take aways from the GE for me.

1. The left wing has always believed that they know better than 'the people' what 'the people' want. They're pretty much always wrong.
2. Those who vote for the winning side are always painfully smug.
3. Most people won't notice the difference on a day to day basis.
4. Still no-one has explained in real terms what the benefits of Brexit are.

4. No Leave leaders have ever claimed there will be economic benefits to Brexit

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Don't misunderstand me; I'm very glad Corbyn isn't cobbling together a coalition with the Scots Nats. I just think your £3 would have been better donated to the Conservatives if that's the result you wanted. That might have actually generated some advantage. Undeniably it's given us something to talk about.

Don't worry, I already give a bit to my chosen party I look on it as an investment...

morstar

surrey_commuter said:

Longshot said:

A few random take aways from the GE for me.

1. The left wing has always believed that they know better than 'the people' what 'the people' want. They're pretty much always wrong.
2. Those who vote for the winning side are always painfully smug.
3. Most people won't notice the difference on a day to day basis.
4. Still no-one has explained in real terms what the benefits of Brexit are.

4. No Leave leaders have ever claimed there will be economic benefits to Brexit

They don’t need to be economic. Just quantifiable would be nice.
Now that out is a foregone conclusion, “getting it done” and “out means out” no longer have any meaning (not that they ever did).

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

In some respects it is a lot easier for the EU in the forthcoming deal making process. Tories have hung their hat on getting a deal done and have a big enough majority to ram more or less anything through, so in some ways the EU needs to be less concerned about how palatable the agreement needs to be for parliament.

It is also a more predictable leadership who can much more easily decide what will and won't be agreed - rather than all this agreeing and then rejecting.

As I mentioned before the GE, this was the GE result that the EU wanted.

Stevo_666

kingstongraham said:

I don't think Farron will fancy another go so there's no total liabilities, they can't come up with a worse strategy

See, there's the problem - there's no Lib Dem equivalent of Jeremy Corbyn. To be honest the Lib Dems really don't need my 'help' - and they certainly aren't getting the recommended £72 a year from me:
https://libdems.org.uk/joining-us

Ben6899

Longshot said:

A few random take aways from the GE for me.

1. The left wing has always believed that they know better than 'the people' what 'the people' want. They're pretty much always wrong.

I'm left-leaning. I'm pretty confident, advising someone living on the breadline that a Labour government has their interests in mind more than a Conservative one does.

I wouldn't dream of suggesting that I know what they want, but I might stare at them aghast when they tell me they've voted for Boris. Admittedly and undoubtedly some poor fortune in the mix somewhere, there will be a host of bad decisions to that led to them being on the breadline in the first place.

But it will self-perpetuate. And that's the sad truth.

Ben6899

I won't edit because we know this forum software can't handle that, but I'll qualify that I am speaking in general terms in my post above...

Longshot

Ben6899 said:

Longshot said:

A few random take aways from the GE for me.

1. The left wing has always believed that they know better than 'the people' what 'the people' want. They're pretty much always wrong.

I'm left-leaning. I'm pretty confident, advising someone living on the breadline that a Labour government has their interests in mind more than a Conservative one does.

I wouldn't dream of suggesting that I know what they want, but I might stare at them aghast when they tell me they've voted for Boris. Admittedly and undoubtedly some poor fortune in the mix somewhere, there will be a host of bad decisions to that led to them being on the breadline in the first place.

But it will self-perpetuate. And that's the sad truth.

To be fair, I'm talking more about the left of the left wing.

haydenm

coopster_the_1st said:

awavey said:

and its that aspect where you have left leaning supporters,note I dont say Labour,who believe they are morally superior because of who they vote for, and yet whilst claiming they have total empathy with everyone will then describe anyone who votes differently as being this selfish uncaring group and sneer at them for it for "not getting it"

The above perfectly describes most who reside on here.

An interesting one. I'm not a passionate supporter of any party but I like to think I vote with a bit of a social conscience* to help people less fortunate than myself. The logic of that falls down slightly when a lot of the poorer people I'd like to help look to have voted Tory and for Brexit, they surely know what they want better than someone like me. The problem the Labour party has is that a stereotypical factory worker wants to see a totally different party than the middle class 'social conscience' voter, and labour are totally lost in the middle.

Even if the extreme left on my facebook are correct and they dissolve the NHS I'll be fine. It's just a shame income tax rates are devolved. I'm probably moving into prime Tory target demographic (apart from the age thing) but I don't see much to get excited for yet. Looking at a basic calculator online it makes about a £200 max difference between Labour and Conservative in my takehome pay annually which is next to nothing considering the amount of arguments it causes. Quite frankly I'd be much better off moving south of the border and taking my £550 extra.**

*Not suggesting Tory voters don't have a social conscience, it just comes from a different angle.
**More money for public services and their performance isn't a 1:1 relationship

john80

rick_chasey said:

In some respects it is a lot easier for the EU in the forthcoming deal making process. Tories have hung their hat on getting a deal done and have a big enough majority to ram more or less anything through, so in some ways the EU needs to be less concerned about how palatable the agreement needs to be for parliament.

It is also a more predictable leadership who can much more easily decide what will and won't be agreed - rather than all this agreeing and then rejecting.

If the government is smart they wont agree to any timetable that is not everything on the table until the deadline. The largest mistake last time was the timetable we agreed to was not in our best interests. Whilst your point above is correct the no deal brexit option is also equally a possibility as they likely have the numbers to ram that through. The Tories will need to appease their new voting base as well as their traditional voters to win again in 5 years time. I don't think the EU's hand is any stronger as a result of this election result. It would be good for the UK government to turn the tables and propose a timetable and then when it is not met start aggressively pointing out the clock is ticking and the EU might well lose access to our market if they don't show some enthusiasm.

rick_chasey

The problem of proportions, however, makes that unlikely.

bompington

john80 said:

the EU might well lose access to our market if they don't show some enthusiasm.

Ah, yes: full circle to "they'll be gagging for a deal because they need us"

kingstongraham

Fog in channel

kingstongraham

Interesting - all socio-economic groups went Tory, the main differentiator was age. Only those who don't need to worry about work any more went majority Conservative. "Too young to know better" makes it up to the 40s now.

john80

bompington said:

john80 said:

the EU might well lose access to our market if they don't show some enthusiasm.

Ah, yes: full circle to "they'll be gagging for a deal because they need us"

Maybe take a step back and realise that it is a trade deal where neither party actually needs the other party. They would both like to come to a mutually beneficial arrangement but to say they need each other is over egging it. If both parties negotiate as if they want a long term relationship then they will probably come to some beneficial arrangement. If they want to take the single transaction approach to the negotiation then it could well be no deal. Unlike some on this forum I am sufficiently enlightened to believe that the EU is not some sort of benevolent father figure trying its best to help the UK out of a difficult breakup. It is in fact a group of nations whose self interest it is pretty much exclusively interested in. Self interest is always running.

rick_chasey

If self interest is really the only show in town then the UK would not be opting for as hard a brexit as it has been.

It is also what the self interest is. Some important nations tend to feel that the EU project is bigger and more important than unfettered economic access to the UK.

haydenm

I do actually think the EU will at least want to appear to look like the mature, reasonable side of the debate and that's not hard given recent governance of the UK. I also think you're right that they want a deal because they want access to UK markets. They might stand to gain from it less than us but it's still a positive for them, just because it means more to one side or the other doesn't make the EU's motivation irrelevant

rjsterry

Re. Gove's comments this morning, this from Jennifer Rankin tickled me,

https://mobile.twitter.com/JenniferMerode/status/1206222613992943616

Saying “a lot of work has been done” because it’s in the political declaration is like saying “a lot of work has been done” on cooking Christmas dinner for 20 people because you’ve written your shopping list.

Longshot

Wow. Imagine if the middle classes are effectively prevented from buying any more German cars. There'll be yoga classes going on on every bridge in London, not just Westminster.

Pross

kingstongraham said:

Interesting - all socio-economic groups went Tory, the main differentiator was age. Only those who don't need to worry about work any more went majority Conservative. "Too young to know better" makes it up to the 40s now.

That sort of puts paid to the people who say it's the well off voting in a Party that is bad for the poor. It suggests even the poorest in society don't want hard left policies and that the only ones that do are young people who are either a) naive enough to believe in them or b) young enough not to have been indoctrinated against them by the right wing media.

Longshot

Young people are more likely to believe that change is possible. As people get older, the majority just shrug and assume that the rich will always get richer and poor will stay poor. Such is the way the world works.

Most of us older folk don't have the energy or time to mount a full blooded revolution. The kids would find it too much like hard work. The world stays the same.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

If self interest is really the only show in town then the UK would not be opting for as hard a brexit as it has been.

It is also what the self interest is. Some important nations tend to feel that the EU project is bigger and more important than unfettered economic access to the UK.

In very much the same way that many people who voted leave did not do for economic reasons but for other reasons they felt were important such as national self determination etc