BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

rjsterry

Still not sure whether this is designed to fail. No sudden conversions from Labour and the DUP definitely voting against, which hints that the ERG will follow suit. If it does fail it also shifts the blame very clearly to Labour and the DUP/ERG, which probably works for Johnson in the inevitable GE.

rjsterry

There's a photo of Johnson, Barclay, Barnier, Varadkar, etc. this afternoon. All look relieved and happy as you would expect.

Apart from Johnson, who has that sheepish look.



Maybe I'm imagining but he doesn't look entirely at ease.

TheBigBean

Current forecast is a tie +/- 15

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... d=58425768

ddraver

Absolutely accept that this is an "Am I alright Jack' question but does anyone know what effect this would have on citizens rights, especially those of us who work in the EU?

Good, bad or nothing?

Unfortunately I feel our country (much as I ve tried to make it not mine) is about to be suckered in by floppy hair and bluster...

TheBigBean

ddraver wrote:

Absolutely accept that this is an "Am I alright Jack' question but does anyone know what effect this would have on citizens rights, especially those of us who work in the EU?

Good, bad or nothing?

Unfortunately I feel our country (much as I ve tried to make it not mine) is about to be suckered in by floppy hair and bluster...

Good. Citizen's rights are in the withdrawal agreement. From memory it is free movement up until the end of the transition period, then rights to apply to stay.

ddraver

Some EU citizenship would be really helpful...

Anyway, thanks BB

Stevo_666

rjsterry wrote:

Still not sure whether this is designed to fail. No sudden conversions from Labour and the DUP definitely voting against, which hints that the ERG will follow suit. If it does fail it also shifts the blame very clearly to Labour and the DUP/ERG, which probably works for Johnson in the inevitable GE.

Unlikely, as it was the result of some intensive negotiations, not just a unilateral UK proposal.

That said, as the choice appears to be deal or no deal, those voting against the deal very likely will get the blame if it is no deal. On the other hand, if the deal is ratified, everyone is relieved and Boris has pulled off what many said was impossible (including the Cake Stop LMS).

Possible master stoike by Boris leading to a good GE result?

pinno

"There are 650 members of Parliament, but seven of them belong to the Irish nationalist Sinn Fein party. On principle, they never take their seats.

The Speaker of the Commons, John Bercow (you’ve heard him shouting “Order, order!”), and his three deputies also don’t vote.

That leaves 639 MPs who do vote, which means Johnson needs 320 – a simple majority – to get his Brexit deal through.

Or to put it another way, if 320 lawmakers vote against it, it’s dead.

The opposition Labour Party says they won’t back it. There are 244 Labour MPs, but a handful of them voted for Theresa May’s deal and might vote for Boris Johnson’s. Let’s figure around 240 Labour MPs will vote against – although Johnson will actually be hoping as many as two dozen will swing to his side.

The Democratic Unionist Party, which props up the Conservative government, says they won’t vote for the deal. There are only 10 of them, but they’re a disciplined bunch with very clear views, so if they say they won’t vote for it, they probably won’t.

That makes 250 against.

The Scottish Nationalist Party, Plaid Cymru, Independent Group for Change and the one Green MP are all likely to vote against the Johnson deal – another 45 against, for a total of about 295.

Then there are the Liberal Democrats, who are riding high on being the main national party that unequivocally opposes Brexit. There are 19 of them, one of whom could vote for the deal. If we assume 18 of them won’t, that’s 313 against, leaving Johnson’s deal dangerously close to defeat.

But could he corral all of the remaining lawmakers to back him so he squeaks out a 326-313 victory?

Most of the Conservative Party will back the deal, as will many of the independents who were Conservatives until Johnson kicked them out of the party for voting against him in the past. The optimistic estimates put the number of current and former Conservatives in Johnson’s corner around 305. But that leaves between a dozen and two dozen votes that could go either way, even without a significant rebellion from the Conservatives who call themselves the European Research Group and are hardline Brexiteers.

Boris Johnson started his premiership with an unprecedented string of seven defeats in a row in Parliamentary votes."

From CNN World.

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Still not sure whether this is designed to fail. No sudden conversions from Labour and the DUP definitely voting against, which hints that the ERG will follow suit. If it does fail it also shifts the blame very clearly to Labour and the DUP/ERG, which probably works for Johnson in the inevitable GE.

Unlikely, as it was the result of some intensive negotiations, not just a unilateral UK proposal.

That said, as the choice appears to be deal or no deal, those voting against the deal very likely will get the blame if it is no deal. On the other hand, if the deal is ratified, everyone is relieved and Boris has pulled off what many said was impossible (including the Cake Stop LMS).

Possible master stoike by Boris leading to a good GE result?

Master stroke seems a bit over blown given it's so similar to what was negotiated with May (not that it was ever likely to deviate that far) and it seems to be getting the same reaction so far from the Commons. Played the only hand he sensibly could (from a party point of view), I'd say.

rick_chasey

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Still not sure whether this is designed to fail. No sudden conversions from Labour and the DUP definitely voting against, which hints that the ERG will follow suit. If it does fail it also shifts the blame very clearly to Labour and the DUP/ERG, which probably works for Johnson in the inevitable GE.

Unlikely, as it was the result of some intensive negotiations, not just a unilateral UK proposal.

That said, as the choice appears to be deal or no deal, those voting against the deal very likely will get the blame if it is no deal. On the other hand, if the deal is ratified, everyone is relieved and Boris has pulled off what many said was impossible (including the Cake Stop LMS).

Possible master stoike by Boris leading to a good GE result?

I don’t understand what you mean in your first line and in the second para - I don’t think it is a choice between no deal or his deal, as TWH has illustrated.

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Still not sure whether this is designed to fail. No sudden conversions from Labour and the DUP definitely voting against, which hints that the ERG will follow suit. If it does fail it also shifts the blame very clearly to Labour and the DUP/ERG, which probably works for Johnson in the inevitable GE.

Unlikely, as it was the result of some intensive negotiations, not just a unilateral UK proposal.

That said, as the choice appears to be deal or no deal, those voting against the deal very likely will get the blame if it is no deal. On the other hand, if the deal is ratified, everyone is relieved and Boris has pulled off what many said was impossible (including the Cake Stop LMS).

Possible master stoike by Boris leading to a good GE result?

I don’t understand what you mean in your first line and in the second para - I don’t think it is a choice between no deal or his deal, as TWH has illustrated.

I haven't seen a post by him that has demonstrated that.

Just taking the EU at their word I.e. no extension. So the choice on Saturday is deal or no deal as I see it.

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Still not sure whether this is designed to fail. No sudden conversions from Labour and the DUP definitely voting against, which hints that the ERG will follow suit. If it does fail it also shifts the blame very clearly to Labour and the DUP/ERG, which probably works for Johnson in the inevitable GE.

Unlikely, as it was the result of some intensive negotiations, not just a unilateral UK proposal.

That said, as the choice appears to be deal or no deal, those voting against the deal very likely will get the blame if it is no deal. On the other hand, if the deal is ratified, everyone is relieved and Boris has pulled off what many said was impossible (including the Cake Stop LMS).

Possible master stoike by Boris leading to a good GE result?

I don’t understand what you mean in your first line and in the second para - I don’t think it is a choice between no deal or his deal, as TWH has illustrated.

No, clearly isn't. It's not in Juncker's gift to say that an extension will or won't be granted. It's a decision for EUCO and Mr Tusk dodged the question.
Parliamentary votes can't be a choice between two options. Votes can only be for or against a particular motion so it is possible that parliament could again vote against the new deal and against leaving without a deal. Real choice is this deal or more delay.

Stevo_666

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Still not sure whether this is designed to fail. No sudden conversions from Labour and the DUP definitely voting against, which hints that the ERG will follow suit. If it does fail it also shifts the blame very clearly to Labour and the DUP/ERG, which probably works for Johnson in the inevitable GE.

Unlikely, as it was the result of some intensive negotiations, not just a unilateral UK proposal.

That said, as the choice appears to be deal or no deal, those voting against the deal very likely will get the blame if it is no deal. On the other hand, if the deal is ratified, everyone is relieved and Boris has pulled off what many said was impossible (including the Cake Stop LMS).

Possible master stoike by Boris leading to a good GE result?

I don’t understand what you mean in your first line and in the second para - I don’t think it is a choice between no deal or his deal, as TWH has illustrated.

No, clearly isn't. It's not in Juncker's gift to say that an extension will or won't be granted. It's a decision for EUCO and Mr Tusk dodged the question.

I thought that the EU was united and coordinated on Brexit? Odd then that Juncker would say that if there was no basis for doing so...

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Still not sure whether this is designed to fail. No sudden conversions from Labour and the DUP definitely voting against, which hints that the ERG will follow suit. If it does fail it also shifts the blame very clearly to Labour and the DUP/ERG, which probably works for Johnson in the inevitable GE.

Unlikely, as it was the result of some intensive negotiations, not just a unilateral UK proposal.

That said, as the choice appears to be deal or no deal, those voting against the deal very likely will get the blame if it is no deal. On the other hand, if the deal is ratified, everyone is relieved and Boris has pulled off what many said was impossible (including the Cake Stop LMS).

Possible master stoike by Boris leading to a good GE result?

I don’t understand what you mean in your first line and in the second para - I don’t think it is a choice between no deal or his deal, as TWH has illustrated.

No, clearly isn't. It's not in Juncker's gift to say that an extension will or won't be granted. It's a decision for EUCO and Mr Tusk dodged the question.

I thought that the EU was united and coordinated on Brexit? Odd then that Juncker would say that if there was no basis for doing so...

He certainly doesn't want an extension because he wants to log this as his legacy, but everyone else on the European side who has been interviewed has either dodged the question or indicated that if it were needed it would be granted.

Stevo_666

rjsterry wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Still not sure whether this is designed to fail. No sudden conversions from Labour and the DUP definitely voting against, which hints that the ERG will follow suit. If it does fail it also shifts the blame very clearly to Labour and the DUP/ERG, which probably works for Johnson in the inevitable GE.

Unlikely, as it was the result of some intensive negotiations, not just a unilateral UK proposal.

That said, as the choice appears to be deal or no deal, those voting against the deal very likely will get the blame if it is no deal. On the other hand, if the deal is ratified, everyone is relieved and Boris has pulled off what many said was impossible (including the Cake Stop LMS).

Possible master stoike by Boris leading to a good GE result?

I don’t understand what you mean in your first line and in the second para - I don’t think it is a choice between no deal or his deal, as TWH has illustrated.

No, clearly isn't. It's not in Juncker's gift to say that an extension will or won't be granted. It's a decision for EUCO and Mr Tusk dodged the question.

I thought that the EU was united and coordinated on Brexit? Odd then that Juncker would say that if there was no basis for doing so...

He certainly doesn't want an extension because he wants to log this as his legacy, but everyone else on the European side who has been interviewed has either dodged the question or indicated that if it were needed it would be granted.

I wonder whether MPs voting on Saturday will want to take that chance?

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Still not sure whether this is designed to fail. No sudden conversions from Labour and the DUP definitely voting against, which hints that the ERG will follow suit. If it does fail it also shifts the blame very clearly to Labour and the DUP/ERG, which probably works for Johnson in the inevitable GE.

Unlikely, as it was the result of some intensive negotiations, not just a unilateral UK proposal.

That said, as the choice appears to be deal or no deal, those voting against the deal very likely will get the blame if it is no deal. On the other hand, if the deal is ratified, everyone is relieved and Boris has pulled off what many said was impossible (including the Cake Stop LMS).

Possible master stoike by Boris leading to a good GE result?

I don’t understand what you mean in your first line and in the second para - I don’t think it is a choice between no deal or his deal, as TWH has illustrated.

No, clearly isn't. It's not in Juncker's gift to say that an extension will or won't be granted. It's a decision for EUCO and Mr Tusk dodged the question.

I thought that the EU was united and coordinated on Brexit? Odd then that Juncker would say that if there was no basis for doing so...

He certainly doesn't want an extension because he wants to log this as his legacy, but everyone else on the European side who has been interviewed has either dodged the question or indicated that if it were needed it would be granted.

I wonder whether MPs voting on Saturday will want to take that chance?

Quite a few have already said they will.

Alejandrosdog

I love the muppets that know what people are thinking.

robert88

ddraver wrote:

Absolutely accept that this is an "Am I alright Jack' question but does anyone know what effect this would have on citizens rights, especially those of us who work in the EU?

Good, bad or nothing?

Unfortunately I feel our country (much as I ve tried to make it not mine) is about to be suckered in by floppy hair and bluster...

From the BBC:

Citizens' rights
UK citizens in the EU, and EU citizens in the UK, will retain their residency and social security rights after Brexit.

Freedom of movement rules will continue to apply during transition. This means that UK nationals will be able to live and work in EU countries (and EU nationals will be able to live and work in UK) during this period.

Anyone who remains in the same EU country for five years will be allowed to apply for permanent residence.

Guess that should include reciprocal health cover but I would not bet on it being the same as we enjoy now. I wouldn't bet on the survival of the NHS, either.

Alejandrosdog

Doom mongers of the world.

Please leave the country. The port at dover has frequent ferrys every day to the land of milk and honey.

Good bye xx

cycleclinic

Take that view and shove it where the sun dont shine. Its simply nasty Alejan.

However my question if the deal passes (I kind of hope it does) but i have stopped hoping, what incentive is there for a GE? The incentive kind of evaporates for the opposition and the tories. If new WA passes will support for the Tories wain?

cycleclinic

KingstonGraham wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

I'm impressed BoJo has done the seemingly impossible.

He's come back with May's deal plus making the backstop unnecessary by putting NI in their own customs area (seemingly) permanently.

Yes however with all his bluster it looked like no deal. Bojo has shown however he can compromise, perhaps not in the way we would like but a compromise never the less. This deal is as much about leaving the eu as about what can squeak passed a very divided parliament. If he manages that then that something that no one expected him to accomplish. Ateast now the battle ground change change possibly if the deal passes. There is now what sort of future relationship we want with the eu. Thats Something we should have been onto already.

haydenm

It is a bit of a master stroke in that it was set up from the off to fail, but if it doesn't then he still wins.

Personally I want them to vote through a deal with a confirmatory referendum amendment.

The talk this morning seemed to be that the numbers suggest it'll be voted down so more MPs will vote it down rather than amend it (self fulfilling prophesy). JMD was a bit more positive about the second ref. Whatever your views are it seems like the best was to leave, and the best way out for remain MPs who can't budge

Pross

Brexit Party predictably whinging about how this is Brexit in name only and they won the last public vote on a position of a clean break Brexit. I think they may have had Coopster speaking for them. I guess they are worrying they are about to lose any relevance they have and those cushy, well paid jobs doing nothing in the European Parliament.

haydenm

Is the best way to get brexit not to vote for this deal whether it has a confirmatory referendum or not? They will absolutely not get a no deal brexit if there is a parliamentary vote on it

tailwindhome

Pross wrote:

Brexit Party predictably whinging about how this is Brexit in name only and they won the last public vote on a position of a clean break Brexit. I think they may have had Coopster speaking for them. I guess they are worrying they are about to lose any relevance they have and those cushy, well paid jobs doing nothing in the European Parliament.

Turns out all 17.4 million didn't know what they were voting for.

haydenm

In a straw poll of 4 of us in the office (2 leave, 2 remain) I think we have all come to the conclusion that the deal probably isn't a dreadful idea. Though the rest don't agree that a 2nd ref is the best way to give the deal solid legitimacy, allow leave MPs to climb down without losing face whilst also convincing/pacifying quite a few remainers in the public (like me).

One of the leavers keeps saying the EU are Nazis and he'll never vote again if we remain, the other is worried that if it goes remain we will be back to square one (fair enough really but I disagree) and the other remainer switched to leave immediately after the vote and thinks we should string up a few hundred politicians in Trafalgar square. So while it's a useful insight I'm beginning to find out a bit more about the people I work with more than anything...

rjsterry

Various predictions concluding that Johnson is a handful of votes short. So far.

Quite a few unknowns, though.

bradsbeard

HaydenM wrote:

In a straw poll of 4 of us in the office (2 leave, 2 remain) I think we have all come to the conclusion that the deal probably isn't a dreadful idea. Though the rest don't agree that a 2nd ref is the best way to give the deal solid legitimacy, allow leave MPs to climb down without losing face whilst also convincing/pacifying quite a few remainers in the public (like me).

One of the leavers keeps saying the EU are Nazis and he'll never vote again if we remain, the other is worried that if it goes remain we will be back to square one (fair enough really but I disagree) and the other remainer switched to leave immediately after the vote and thinks we should string up a few hundred politicians in Trafalgar square. So while it's a useful insight I'm beginning to find out a bit more about the people I work with more than anything...

Just because their opinion differs doesn't make it any less than yours.

I'm a remainer but sick to the back teeth of it all. Let's be honest any deal will not satisfy most people.

kingstongraham

Johnson wouldn't have voted for this deal if May had brought it back. No question.

TheBigBean

rjsterry wrote:

Various predictions concluding that Johnson is a handful of votes short. So far.

Quite a few unknowns, though.

The link I posted upthread has it the other way. They even have Hoey as a Tory rebel.