BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

rjsterry

Alejandrosdog wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Saw that. Not entirely clear if he's in a position to say that unless he has already spoken to EUCO. Certainly a matter of a couple of days ago the working assumption was that an extension would be offered, so I wonder what brought about the change of heart. A protection against the UK banking concessions then having another go perhaps.

I think they had already voted in favour of another extension a week or so ago. Things change, maybe they've had just about as much of this as they can stomach. at some point its going to sink in that the divisions and tribal self interest of the House of Commons will preclude an answer. No doubt Labour announcing prior to seeing the deal that they will vote against it has something to do with it.

Juncker is just nudging the children along. with impeccable timing I might say.

I think so. Signalling that it's time to stop p***ing about, but most seem to think that in reality an extension would be offered if needed.

Lewis Goodall
(@lewis_goodall)
About to get on a plane back but just on Juncker’s words on extension. EU source says: “It’s not in his gift to rule it out, he is just defending the deal and saying one shouldn't be needed...I am 100% certain EU27 would permit an extension if deal falls on Saturday.”

October 17, 2019

tailwindhome

TheBigBean wrote:

stuff on NI consent]

It's been pointed out by Matthew O Toole that unionists could command a simple majority as recently as 2017. Alliance may not hold the balance of power forever.

Longshot

Stevo 666 wrote:

darkhairedlord wrote:

Alejandrosdog wrote:

hahahaha GO JUNKER

NO Brexit extension


Vote for the deal or vote for no deal he tells the Houses of Parliament

or revoke

Not sure that has any chance of getting through on the weekend. Has anyone even proposed it?

Juncker's statement will certainly focused the minds in parliament. This Saturday is deal or no deal. Wonder what the likes of Corbyn, Swinson and Sturgeon are going to do?

At a guess:

Corbyn will sit on the fence and do f*ck all
Swinson will say we need to stop brexit and no-one will listen
Sturgeon will say the only solution is an Indy Ref for Scotland

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

None of this makes the Benn Act go away.

Let's see what happens on Saturday in Parliament.

He needs all 286 who voted for May deal.

-1 he lost in the bye election
+all 28 Spartans

Plus 7 more from Labour/Libdems

320.

(per John Rentoul)

Seen Junckers statement on there being no extension? That changes the game a little.

Not sure it does in reality. Won't hurt to apply a bit more pressure though.

TheBigBean

TailWindHome wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

None of this makes the Benn Act go away.

Let's see what happens on Saturday in Parliament.

He needs all 286 who voted for May deal.

-1 he lost in the bye election
+all 28 Spartans

Plus 7 more from Labour/Libdems

320.

(per John Rentoul)

Here you go. MP by MP analysis

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... d=58425768

I still haven't decided, but I think I'm going to say it will pass

kingstongraham

Stevo 666 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

None of this makes the Benn Act go away.

Let's see what happens on Saturday in Parliament.

He needs all 286 who voted for May deal.

-1 he lost in the bye election
+all 28 Spartans

Plus 7 more from Labour/Libdems

320.

(per John Rentoul)

Seen Junckers statement on there being no extension? That changes the game a little.

Changes it a little, but that's not his decision to make.

bradsbeard

Well that's no deal then.

robert88

Stevo 666 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

None of this makes the Benn Act go away.

Let's see what happens on Saturday in Parliament.

He needs all 286 who voted for May deal.

-1 he lost in the bye election
+all 28 Spartans

Plus 7 more from Labour/Libdems

320.

(per John Rentoul)

Seen Junckers statement on there being no extension? That changes the game a little.

He's playing them. Like a harp if I may say so.

elbowloh

On the Stormont approval thing, what happens if Stormont isn't sitting? Like for the last 2 years?

Alejandrosdog

bradsbeard wrote:

Well that's no deal then.

I hope not. I wouldn't be surprised though
good TV

TheBigBean

elbowloh wrote:

On the Stormont approval thing, what happens if Stormont isn't sitting? Like for the last 2 years?

See my post above yours.

tailwindhome

Nigel Farage
@Nigel_Farage
So an unelected, retiring bureaucrat says: No extension, take this new treaty or just leave.

He is overriding the Benn Act. The EU shows itself to be a thuggocracy - power without accountability.

Appalling people.

*chuckle*

tailwindhome

If Boris gets this home he'll have ended the political careers of Farage, Foster and Corbyn.

kingstongraham

TailWindHome wrote:

Nigel Farage
@Nigel_Farage
So an unelected, retiring bureaucrat says: No extension, take this new treaty or just leave.

He is overriding the Benn Act. The EU shows itself to be a thuggocracy - power without accountability.

Appalling people.

*chuckle*

That's amazing. someone reboot him - he's got the "all EU laws are made in Britain" the wrong way round.

kingstongraham

TailWindHome wrote:

If Boris gets this home he'll have ended the political careers of Farage, Foster and Corbyn.

Why Corbyn?

haydenm

Stevo 666 wrote:

darkhairedlord wrote:

Alejandrosdog wrote:

hahahaha GO JUNKER

NO Brexit extension


Vote for the deal or vote for no deal he tells the Houses of Parliament

or revoke

Not sure that has any chance of getting through on the weekend. Has anyone even proposed it?

Juncker's statement will certainly focused the minds in parliament. This Saturday is deal or no deal. Wonder what the likes of Corbyn, Swinson and Sturgeon are going to do?

Presumably they (or their party members, we all know Corbyn will do absolutely nothing) will vote it through on the promise of a confirmatory referendum?

As a fairly uncommitted remainer a deal voted through with public support would be quite a solid way out of this mess at the end of the day.

bradsbeard

KingstonGraham wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

If Boris gets this home he'll have ended the political careers of Farage, Foster and Corbyn.

Why Corbyn?

Because of his indecisiveness. Labour flogging a dead horse.

It'll be the only positive outcome.

haydenm

Do you think he's even noticed Brexit is going on or is he still busy arguing about Jews?

cycleclinic

I'm impressed BoJo has done the seemingly impossible. Sad though it looks to be on a knife edge whether it will pass or not. I'm off on holiday on Saturday. Wahoo.

While I am opposed to referndum I do have to concede it may be the only way out as the opposition MP's just cant seem to decide what they want. Only the ERG seem to know what they want - a free trade deal. I'm not sure how free trade deals are supposed to unshackle the U.K. I dont feel shackled by "burdonsome" EU regulations.

Free trade deals my arse. At least the ERG no matter how deluded know what they want. the oppositioon well I have lost all respect for them.

Alejandrosdog

thecycleclinic wrote:

I'm impressed BoJo has done the seemingly impossible. Sad though it looks to be on a knife edge whether it will pass or not. I'm off on holiday on Saturday. Wahoo.

While I am opposed to referndum I do have to concede it may be the only way out as the opposition MP's just cant seem to decide what they want. Only the ERG seem to know what they want - a free trade deal. I'm not sure how free trade deals are supposed to unshackle the U.K. I dont feel shackled by "burdonsome" EU regulations.

Free trade deals my ars*. At least the ERG no matter how deluded know what they want. the oppositioon well I have lost all respect for them.

you had any in the first place?????

kingstongraham

thecycleclinic wrote:

I'm impressed BoJo has done the seemingly impossible.

He's come back with May's deal plus making the backstop unnecessary by putting NI in their own customs area (seemingly) permanently.

Jez mon

So we've basically agreed a sea boarder right?

With some fluff about different tarifs for stuff that will stay in NI vs stuff that might get into the single market?

kingstongraham

Interesting on the BBC site:

According to odds comparison website Oddschecker, currently the best odds for the UK to leave the EU by 31 October are 2/1.

Meanwhile, anyone wanting to bet on a no-deal Brexit happening by the Halloween deadline are looking at odds of 6/1.

Coral also said earlier it had cut its odds on the UK remaining in the EU after 31 October, which are now at 2/5.

tailwindhome

Rick Chasey wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

The NI only backstop won't be the thing that prevents it passing.

What will then?

*If* he succeeds in removing the level playing field protections he'll lose the Labour votes he'll need to be sure.

That would be a *very* big win if he got that, no?

Oh oh spaghetti oh.

TheBigBean

TailWindHome wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

The NI only backstop won't be the thing that prevents it passing.

What will then?

*If* he succeeds in removing the level playing field protections he'll lose the Labour votes he'll need to be sure.

That would be a *very* big win if he got that, no?

Oh oh spaghetti oh.

Are you going to provide another vote prediction?

mr_goo

HaydenM wrote:

Do you think he's even noticed Brexit is going on or is he still busy arguing about Jews?

robert88

KingstonGraham wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

I'm impressed BoJo has done the seemingly impossible.

He's come back with May's deal plus making the backstop unnecessary by putting NI in their own customs area (seemingly) permanently.

Except once the rest of the UK start trying to do trade deals the distinction will cause real trouble. If takes that long.

rjsterry

TailWindHome wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

The NI only backstop won't be the thing that prevents it passing.

What will then?

*If* he succeeds in removing the level playing field protections he'll lose the Labour votes he'll need to be sure.

That would be a *very* big win if he got that, no?

Oh oh spaghetti oh.

The EU can make LPF provisions a condition of the future FTA. They wouldn't have given them up so easily if there wasn't another way to protect themselves.

Question is whether Labour will see it that way.

TheBigBean

A future FTA will have a break clause whereas the WA doesn't. Moving the LPF provisions is a material change. Plus it gives the UK something to negotiate with at the next stage.

TheBigBean

I think the vote will pass.