BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

tailwindhome

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

I'm intrigued as to how they've resolved the consent issue.

Also intrigued. Wild guess, but every four years the EU donates to the peace fund and the DUP finds a way to vote for it. All those years of sectarian violence have created masters of a good shake down.

The Peace Fund money will be one to watch.

Figures from BBCs John Campbell suggest the impact of the customs /regulatory arrangements will be around 750 million per year plus capital expenditure.... So that's a starting point for 'extra money' from UK to NI

pinno

KingstonGraham wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

elbowloh wrote:

So, looks like we might end up with a deal that was worse than the May deal

Taking your speculation at face value, if the deal that Boris is negotiating is worse than the May deal it should be rejected and we then have a clean Brexit. Doing anything else puts the Tories at the mercy of the Brexit Party. In this situation I would certainly vote for TBP at the next election, as would millions of others.

This is excellent news.

Preceding an extension, at a GE, the Tory party split 3 ways, Brexit picking up the dregs, Labour achieving 30% of the vote (at the most), Lib Dems 10... utter chaos.

They should have sought options ahead of the referendum, but we did it 4rse about face.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

I'm intrigued as to how they've resolved the consent issue.

Also intrigued. Wild guess, but every four years the EU donates to the peace fund and the DUP finds a way to vote for it. All those years of sectarian violence have created masters of a good shake down.

Seems like its

After 4 years - majority vote in assembly to keep the arrangements

After 8 years - cross community support vote in assembly to keep arrangements

If vote against arrangements - 2 year cooling off period

If no assembly - arrangements continue

TheBigBean

I'm surprised by the no assembly one given it doesn't look like it will open soon, and this incentivises one side to never open it. A referedum would, to me, make sense at that point.

john80

Rolf F wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

HaydenM wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

HaydenM wrote:

Polling is at 50% for Scottish Independence but I can't see it happening fast enough to capitalise on the brexit mess and the peak in support will subside.

...looks at the mess Westminster is in and how long brexit will run and run for and thinks, hmmm...

I wonder how inconsequential the Scottish circle would look on Stevo's favourite EU chart

I thought being a big economy in the EU was a bad thing because you subsidize all the smaller ones?

Scotland may well find out to their cost what lack of subsidy feels like if they get independence. (I'm pretty relaxed about it BTW).

Surely if they get independence and then membership of the EU, they'll get all the EU subsidy they need?

The border arrangements between scotland and england with the eu will be entertaining if england has already left. England can play a role reversal with scotland and the eu.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean wrote:

I'm surprised by the no assembly one given it doesn't look like it will open soon, and this incentivises one side to never open it. A referedum would, to me, make sense at that point.

It does have the advantage of everyone being able to claim the win.

TheBigBean

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

I'm surprised by the no assembly one given it doesn't look like it will open soon, and this incentivises one side to never open it. A referedum would, to me, make sense at that point.

It does have the advantage of everyone being able to claim the win.

Looks like a Sinn Fein veto in effect. I struggle to understand the democractic legitimacy of it, and can't see how it works for the DUP.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

I'm surprised by the no assembly one given it doesn't look like it will open soon, and this incentivises one side to never open it. A referedum would, to me, make sense at that point.

It does have the advantage of everyone being able to claim the win.

Looks like a Sinn Fein veto in effect. I struggle to understand the democractic legitimacy of it, and can't see how it works for the DUP.

It's not 100% clear what is actually being proposed - but it looks as if the DUP/Unionist veto would apply from the second vote. They can claim it as a virtual 10 year time limit.


However


It doesn't

rick_chasey

Political treacle

robert88

You can make an omelette out of eggs but you can't make eggs out of an omelette.

TheBigBean

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

I'm surprised by the no assembly one given it doesn't look like it will open soon, and this incentivises one side to never open it. A referedum would, to me, make sense at that point.

It does have the advantage of everyone being able to claim the win.

Looks like a Sinn Fein veto in effect. I struggle to understand the democractic legitimacy of it, and can't see how it works for the DUP.

It's not 100% clear what is actually being proposed - but it looks as if the DUP/Unionist veto would apply from the second vote. They can claim it as a virtual 10 year time limit.

As you say, none of it is clear, but if there is no legitimate consent mechanism, there is a danger someone like Trimble will take it to the courts.

Pross

john80 wrote:

Rolf F wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

HaydenM wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

HaydenM wrote:

Polling is at 50% for Scottish Independence but I can't see it happening fast enough to capitalise on the brexit mess and the peak in support will subside.

...looks at the mess Westminster is in and how long brexit will run and run for and thinks, hmmm...

I wonder how inconsequential the Scottish circle would look on Stevo's favourite EU chart

I thought being a big economy in the EU was a bad thing because you subsidize all the smaller ones?

Scotland may well find out to their cost what lack of subsidy feels like if they get independence. (I'm pretty relaxed about it BTW).

Surely if they get independence and then membership of the EU, they'll get all the EU subsidy they need?

The border arrangements between scotland and england with the eu will be entertaining if england has already left. England can play a role reversal with scotland and the eu.

It would just be a hard border surely? It doesn't have all the historic political issues that created the problems with the Irish border.

pblakeney

Hadrian’s wall is fairly historic.
But I think both sides were equally happy with it at the time.

tailwindhome

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

I'm surprised by the no assembly one given it doesn't look like it will open soon, and this incentivises one side to never open it. A referedum would, to me, make sense at that point.

It does have the advantage of everyone being able to claim the win.

Looks like a Sinn Fein veto in effect. I struggle to understand the democractic legitimacy of it, and can't see how it works for the DUP.

It's not 100% clear what is actually being proposed - but it looks as if the DUP/Unionist veto would apply from the second vote. They can claim it as a virtual 10 year time limit.

As you say, none of it is clear, but if there is no legitimate consent mechanism, there is a danger someone like Trimble will take it to the courts.

It's so unclear this morning it's not even worth thinking about today.

mugensi

So ten bigoted unionists from NI are deciding the fate for the entire UK...ridiculous!

tailwindhome

MugenSi wrote:

So ten bigoted unionists from NI are deciding the fate for the entire UK...ridiculous!

Alternatively 10 elected representatives of a community in the UK who wish to stay fully part of the UK are insisting that they have the same right to stay fully part of the UK as everyone else.

Off the top of my head 4 of those 10 (plus the party leader) have previously been the victim of attempted murder for that legitimate position

rick_chasey

DUP aren't really bound by the same (self imposed) deadline challenges BoJo is.

surrey_commuter

TailWindHome wrote:

MugenSi wrote:

So ten bigoted unionists from NI are deciding the fate for the entire UK...ridiculous!

Alternatively 10 elected representatives of a community in the UK who wish to stay fully part of the UK are insisting that they have the same right to stay fully part of the UK as everyone else.

Off the top of my head 4 of those 10 (plus the party leader) have previously been the victim of attempted murder for that legitimate position

Am I right in thinking their lowest priority is preserving the GFA?

surrey_commuter

Rick Chasey wrote:

DUP aren't really bound by the same (self imposed) deadline challenges BoJo is.

Nobody seems to mention the negotiating strait jacket he has enthusiastically jumped into and that he now seems to be heading towards compromises worse than TM.

It does baffle me that TM did not figure out how easily JRM and co could be bought off with a seat in cabinet.

john80

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

DUP aren't really bound by the same (self imposed) deadline challenges BoJo is.

Nobody seems to mention the negotiating strait jacket he has enthusiastically jumped into and that he now seems to be heading towards compromises worse than TM.

It does baffle me that TM did not figure out how easily JRM and co could be bought off with a seat in cabinet.

She would have had to listen to him face to face and this is a fate worse than not getting Brexit.

pblakeney

MugenSi wrote:

So ten bigoted unionists from NI are deciding the fate for the entire UK...ridiculous!

They won’t be able to do it alone. Look at who else is involved.

rick_chasey

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

DUP aren't really bound by the same (self imposed) deadline challenges BoJo is.

Nobody seems to mention the negotiating strait jacket he has enthusiastically jumped into and that he now seems to be heading towards compromises worse than TM.

I have a feeling it's still all for show.

He's hoping he comes back with anything that the papers can spin into an improvement. At that point, either he gets his deal through parliament and he's done Brexit, or parliament thwarts him and he does a people vs Parliament election.

I imagine that is the arithmetic.

TheBigBean

TailWindHome wrote:

MugenSi wrote:

So ten bigoted unionists from NI are deciding the fate for the entire UK...ridiculous!

Alternatively 10 elected representatives of a community in the UK who wish to stay fully part of the UK are insisting that they have the same right to stay fully part of the UK as everyone else.

Off the top of my head 4 of those 10 (plus the party leader) have previously been the victim of attempted murder for that legitimate position

Well said.

darkhairedlord

Rick Chasey wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

DUP aren't really bound by the same (self imposed) deadline challenges BoJo is.

Nobody seems to mention the negotiating strait jacket he has enthusiastically jumped into and that he now seems to be heading towards compromises worse than TM.

I have a feeling it's still all for show.

He's hoping he comes back with anything that the papers can spin into an improvement. At that point, either he gets his deal through parliament and he's done Brexit, or parliament thwarts him and he does a people vs Parliament election.

I imagine that is the arithmetic.

He has to put two fingers up to the DUP, they've had their money, and take the confirmatory ref on offer from labour.
That will decide it one way or another. BJ gets his agreement, it's then up to him to sell it to the people; if he's confident his deal is good, he can sell it.

TheBigBean

Everyone reporting a deal has been done.

haydenm

Rick Chasey wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

DUP aren't really bound by the same (self imposed) deadline challenges BoJo is.

Nobody seems to mention the negotiating strait jacket he has enthusiastically jumped into and that he now seems to be heading towards compromises worse than TM.

I have a feeling it's still all for show.

He's hoping he comes back with anything that the papers can spin into an improvement. At that point, either he gets his deal through parliament and he's done Brexit, or parliament thwarts him and he does a people vs Parliament election.

I imagine that is the arithmetic.

Agreed. I said earlier in the thread, surely no one believes that he wants no deal? It's all a very risky act but it relies on enough people believing it. Seeing as everyone knows it's an act I'm surprised it's working.

The real risk is the public starting to think that no deal is actually an option.

rick_chasey

DUP still objecting to it.

darkhairedlord

Rick Chasey wrote:

DUP still objecting to it.

Just for show, they want their pound of flesh.

robert88

It's agreed.

Just parliament now.

kingstongraham

TailWindHome wrote:

There's a fly in the ointment

https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/statu ... 0478913538

Will the ERG have to vote to remove their own law that was put in place to prevent someone doing what Johnson is doing, so Johnson can do what they wanted to prevent?