BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,076
    TheBigBean wrote:
    I'm intrigued as to how they've resolved the consent issue.

    Also intrigued. Wild guess, but every four years the EU donates to the peace fund and the DUP finds a way to vote for it. All those years of sectarian violence have created masters of a good shake down.

    The Peace Fund money will be one to watch.

    Figures from BBCs John Campbell suggest the impact of the customs /regulatory arrangements will be around 750 million per year plus capital expenditure.... So that's a starting point for 'extra money' from UK to NI
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 51,672
    elbowloh wrote:
    So, looks like we might end up with a deal that was worse than the May deal

    Taking your speculation at face value, if the deal that Boris is negotiating is worse than the May deal it should be rejected and we then have a clean Brexit. Doing anything else puts the Tories at the mercy of the Brexit Party. In this situation I would certainly vote for TBP at the next election, as would millions of others.

    This is excellent news.

    Preceding an extension, at a GE, the Tory party split 3 ways, Brexit picking up the dregs, Labour achieving 30% of the vote (at the most), Lib Dems 10... utter chaos.

    They should have sought options ahead of the referendum, but we did it 4rse about face.
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,076
    TheBigBean wrote:
    I'm intrigued as to how they've resolved the consent issue.

    Also intrigued. Wild guess, but every four years the EU donates to the peace fund and the DUP finds a way to vote for it. All those years of sectarian violence have created masters of a good shake down.


    Seems like its

    After 4 years - majority vote in assembly to keep the arrangements

    After 8 years - cross community support vote in assembly to keep arrangements

    If vote against arrangements - 2 year cooling off period

    If no assembly - arrangements continue
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,899
    I'm surprised by the no assembly one given it doesn't look like it will open soon, and this incentivises one side to never open it. A referedum would, to me, make sense at that point.
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    Rolf F wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    HaydenM wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    HaydenM wrote:
    Polling is at 50% for Scottish Independence but I can't see it happening fast enough to capitalise on the brexit mess and the peak in support will subside.
    ...looks at the mess Westminster is in and how long brexit will run and run for and thinks, hmmm...

    I wonder how inconsequential the Scottish circle would look on Stevo's favourite EU chart :lol:

    I thought being a big economy in the EU was a bad thing because you subsidize all the smaller ones?
    Scotland may well find out to their cost what lack of subsidy feels like if they get independence. (I'm pretty relaxed about it BTW).

    Surely if they get independence and then membership of the EU, they'll get all the EU subsidy they need?

    The border arrangements between scotland and england with the eu will be entertaining if england has already left. England can play a role reversal with scotland and the eu.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,076
    TheBigBean wrote:
    I'm surprised by the no assembly one given it doesn't look like it will open soon, and this incentivises one side to never open it. A referedum would, to me, make sense at that point.
    It does have the advantage of everyone being able to claim the win.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,899
    TheBigBean wrote:
    I'm surprised by the no assembly one given it doesn't look like it will open soon, and this incentivises one side to never open it. A referedum would, to me, make sense at that point.
    It does have the advantage of everyone being able to claim the win.

    Looks like a Sinn Fein veto in effect. I struggle to understand the democractic legitimacy of it, and can't see how it works for the DUP.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,076
    TheBigBean wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    I'm surprised by the no assembly one given it doesn't look like it will open soon, and this incentivises one side to never open it. A referedum would, to me, make sense at that point.
    It does have the advantage of everyone being able to claim the win.

    Looks like a Sinn Fein veto in effect. I struggle to understand the democractic legitimacy of it, and can't see how it works for the DUP.

    It's not 100% clear what is actually being proposed - but it looks as if the DUP/Unionist veto would apply from the second vote. They can claim it as a virtual 10 year time limit.


    However


    It doesn't

    EHDuo0_X4AAD2yt?format=jpg&name=900x900
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 73,620
    Political treacle
  • robert88
    robert88 Posts: 2,696
    You can make an omelette out of eggs but you can't make eggs out of an omelette.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,899
    TheBigBean wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    I'm surprised by the no assembly one given it doesn't look like it will open soon, and this incentivises one side to never open it. A referedum would, to me, make sense at that point.
    It does have the advantage of everyone being able to claim the win.

    Looks like a Sinn Fein veto in effect. I struggle to understand the democractic legitimacy of it, and can't see how it works for the DUP.

    It's not 100% clear what is actually being proposed - but it looks as if the DUP/Unionist veto would apply from the second vote. They can claim it as a virtual 10 year time limit.

    As you say, none of it is clear, but if there is no legitimate consent mechanism, there is a danger someone like Trimble will take it to the courts.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 41,370
    john80 wrote:
    Rolf F wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    HaydenM wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    HaydenM wrote:
    Polling is at 50% for Scottish Independence but I can't see it happening fast enough to capitalise on the brexit mess and the peak in support will subside.
    ...looks at the mess Westminster is in and how long brexit will run and run for and thinks, hmmm...

    I wonder how inconsequential the Scottish circle would look on Stevo's favourite EU chart :lol:

    I thought being a big economy in the EU was a bad thing because you subsidize all the smaller ones?
    Scotland may well find out to their cost what lack of subsidy feels like if they get independence. (I'm pretty relaxed about it BTW).

    Surely if they get independence and then membership of the EU, they'll get all the EU subsidy they need?

    The border arrangements between scotland and england with the eu will be entertaining if england has already left. England can play a role reversal with scotland and the eu.

    It would just be a hard border surely? It doesn't have all the historic political issues that created the problems with the Irish border.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 26,173
    Hadrian’s wall is fairly historic.
    But I think both sides were equally happy with it at the time. :lol:
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,076
    TheBigBean wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    I'm surprised by the no assembly one given it doesn't look like it will open soon, and this incentivises one side to never open it. A referedum would, to me, make sense at that point.
    It does have the advantage of everyone being able to claim the win.

    Looks like a Sinn Fein veto in effect. I struggle to understand the democractic legitimacy of it, and can't see how it works for the DUP.

    It's not 100% clear what is actually being proposed - but it looks as if the DUP/Unionist veto would apply from the second vote. They can claim it as a virtual 10 year time limit.

    As you say, none of it is clear, but if there is no legitimate consent mechanism, there is a danger someone like Trimble will take it to the courts.

    It's so unclear this morning it's not even worth thinking about today.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • mugensi
    mugensi Posts: 559
    So ten bigoted unionists from NI are deciding the fate for the entire UK...ridiculous!
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,076
    MugenSi wrote:
    So ten bigoted unionists from NI are deciding the fate for the entire UK...ridiculous!

    Alternatively 10 elected representatives of a community in the UK who wish to stay fully part of the UK are insisting that they have the same right to stay fully part of the UK as everyone else.

    Off the top of my head 4 of those 10 (plus the party leader) have previously been the victim of attempted murder for that legitimate position
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 73,620
    DUP aren't really bound by the same (self imposed) deadline challenges BoJo is.
  • MugenSi wrote:
    So ten bigoted unionists from NI are deciding the fate for the entire UK...ridiculous!

    Alternatively 10 elected representatives of a community in the UK who wish to stay fully part of the UK are insisting that they have the same right to stay fully part of the UK as everyone else.

    Off the top of my head 4 of those 10 (plus the party leader) have previously been the victim of attempted murder for that legitimate position

    Am I right in thinking their lowest priority is preserving the GFA?
  • DUP aren't really bound by the same (self imposed) deadline challenges BoJo is.

    Nobody seems to mention the negotiating strait jacket he has enthusiastically jumped into and that he now seems to be heading towards compromises worse than TM.

    It does baffle me that TM did not figure out how easily JRM and co could be bought off with a seat in cabinet.
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    DUP aren't really bound by the same (self imposed) deadline challenges BoJo is.

    Nobody seems to mention the negotiating strait jacket he has enthusiastically jumped into and that he now seems to be heading towards compromises worse than TM.

    It does baffle me that TM did not figure out how easily JRM and co could be bought off with a seat in cabinet.

    She would have had to listen to him face to face and this is a fate worse than not getting Brexit. :D
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 26,173
    MugenSi wrote:
    So ten bigoted unionists from NI are deciding the fate for the entire UK...ridiculous!
    They won’t be able to do it alone. Look at who else is involved.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 73,620
    DUP aren't really bound by the same (self imposed) deadline challenges BoJo is.

    Nobody seems to mention the negotiating strait jacket he has enthusiastically jumped into and that he now seems to be heading towards compromises worse than TM.

    I have a feeling it's still all for show.

    He's hoping he comes back with anything that the papers can spin into an improvement. At that point, either he gets his deal through parliament and he's done Brexit, or parliament thwarts him and he does a people vs Parliament election.

    I imagine that is the arithmetic.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,899
    MugenSi wrote:
    So ten bigoted unionists from NI are deciding the fate for the entire UK...ridiculous!

    Alternatively 10 elected representatives of a community in the UK who wish to stay fully part of the UK are insisting that they have the same right to stay fully part of the UK as everyone else.

    Off the top of my head 4 of those 10 (plus the party leader) have previously been the victim of attempted murder for that legitimate position

    Well said.
  • DUP aren't really bound by the same (self imposed) deadline challenges BoJo is.

    Nobody seems to mention the negotiating strait jacket he has enthusiastically jumped into and that he now seems to be heading towards compromises worse than TM.

    I have a feeling it's still all for show.

    He's hoping he comes back with anything that the papers can spin into an improvement. At that point, either he gets his deal through parliament and he's done Brexit, or parliament thwarts him and he does a people vs Parliament election.

    I imagine that is the arithmetic.
    He has to put two fingers up to the DUP, they've had their money, and take the confirmatory ref on offer from labour.
    That will decide it one way or another. BJ gets his agreement, it's then up to him to sell it to the people; if he's confident his deal is good, he can sell it.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,899
    Everyone reporting a deal has been done.
  • haydenm
    haydenm Posts: 2,997
    DUP aren't really bound by the same (self imposed) deadline challenges BoJo is.

    Nobody seems to mention the negotiating strait jacket he has enthusiastically jumped into and that he now seems to be heading towards compromises worse than TM.

    I have a feeling it's still all for show.

    He's hoping he comes back with anything that the papers can spin into an improvement. At that point, either he gets his deal through parliament and he's done Brexit, or parliament thwarts him and he does a people vs Parliament election.

    I imagine that is the arithmetic.

    Agreed. I said earlier in the thread, surely no one believes that he wants no deal? It's all a very risky act but it relies on enough people believing it. Seeing as everyone knows it's an act I'm surprised it's working.

    The real risk is the public starting to think that no deal is actually an option.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 73,620
    DUP still objecting to it.
  • DUP still objecting to it.
    Just for show, they want their pound of flesh.
  • robert88
    robert88 Posts: 2,696
    It's agreed.

    Just parliament now.

  • Will the ERG have to vote to remove their own law that was put in place to prevent someone doing what Johnson is doing, so Johnson can do what they wanted to prevent?