BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

surrey_commuter

Pross wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Pross wrote:

bompington wrote:

Pross wrote:

I've actually reached the point where I just want it over no matter which way it goes as I'm starting to wonder if all the uncertainty and delay is creating a bigger issue for the economy not to mention the complete lack of any other business getting done by parliament. I'd rather we end up remaining or, at worst, leaving with a deal but if it takes no deal to just get things moving then so be it.

What on earth makes you think that leaving will end anything? It will be the beginning of longer, harder, worse stuff. These will be the good old days of stability and hope.

It would at least end all the discussions on what to do. I think it's the only way to end the impasse as I genuinely can't see any deal getting agreed. It feels like nothing else is being done regarding the running of the country at the moment although I suppose the real danger is stuff is getting done but buried under the smokescreen of Brexit that comes back to haunt us down the line.

what Bomp is referring to is this is just our exit agreement upon which A50 grants us certain rights. If we leave in a huff on 31st Oct then we will still have to negotiate future relationships (not just trade) with the EU and will be doing so with a lot of bad feeling and no rights. The current sh1t show is just the foothills of what is to come.

Also bear in mind that the barstewards are trying to grind you down. Throwing yourself over the cliff to end the fear of falling off it is lunacy.

I appreciate that, just wondering at what point you conclude that arguing about it continuously for years on end is doing just as much damage. On the second paragraph at least they've managed to succeed in one of their aims then.

Can anyone think of a previous political mess as big as this for which we were solely responsible? Some glib election promise that it wasn't expected would come to anything results in virtually breaking the political system.

it is staggering how far the Tories have fallen since DC won his election.

Economic growth has slowed because of the fear of Brexit . This will not be rectified by Leaving.

cycleclinic

KingstonGraham wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

The train is about to crash, you can see the problem 3 years ahead and what do we do squable and the last moment apply to have more track laid so we can squablle more and then when the crash looms again try to apply to get more track laid again.

When will it end............

In this analogy, at the last moment deciding not to lay more track because we're all bored would seem to be unwise.

Also if you know the train is going to crash you can accept it going to hurt and buckle up. Its like pulling that bandage of that road rash. you know even with the non stick pads its going to hurt so no point putting it off. Goit to get on with it.

The simple fact is no matter how much parliament squabbles now the opposition is not agreed on what to do post extension is its achieved. Without that an extension is putting of the current predicament till a later date rather than solving it. I'd rather take the hit now than later because I know it coming.

kingstongraham

thecycleclinic wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

The train is about to crash, you can see the problem 3 years ahead and what do we do squable and the last moment apply to have more track laid so we can squablle more and then when the crash looms again try to apply to get more track laid again.

When will it end............

In this analogy, at the last moment deciding not to lay more track because we're all bored would seem to be unwise.

Also if you know the train is going to crash you can accept it going to hurt and buckle up. Its like pulling that bandage of that road rash. you know even with the non stick pads its going to hurt so no point putting it off. Goit to get on with it.

The simple fact is no matter how much parliament squabbles now the opposition is not agreed on what to do post extension is its achieved. Without that an extension is putting of the current predicament till a later date rather than solving it. I'd rather take the hit now than later because I know it coming.

You need to watch more Wallace and Gromit

kingstonian

In reality, Boris is openly challenging the rebel MPs in a way that every Conservative leader since Thatcher hasn't. They have all tried, and failed, to work with a consensus which mainly over Europe has caused so much angst within the party, and is in recent times threatening to tear it apart. Boris has seen Corbyn take the same approach, deselecting Labour MPs for not supporting his stance, so it makes sense he follows. If he succeeds, he may for the first time in the last 3 decades have a party of MPs with a relatively united view. Risky strategy, but at the very least it shows he has balls.

And Corbyn is in a right pickle - has been shouting for a GE for months now, he might now get a chance for one handed to him on a plate and yet he may not be able to get enough Labour MPs to back it (a fair few because they are in heavy Leave-supporting constituencies and face losing their seats to Brexiteers), eroding his authority in the party as they'll look very much like they are running scared.

Force Brexit to happen, eject dissident MPs from the party, force a GE or force Labour to shy away from the challenge, if he pulls it all off it is a political masterstroke.

rjsterry

Kingstonian wrote:

In reality, Boris is openly challenging the rebel MPs in a way that every Conservative leader since Thatcher hasn't. They have all tried, and failed, to work with a consensus which mainly over Europe has caused so much angst within the party, and is in recent times threatening to tear it apart. Boris has seen Corbyn take the same approach, deselecting Labour MPs for not supporting his stance, so it makes sense he follows. If he succeeds, he may for the first time in the last 3 decades have a party of MPs with a relatively united view. Risky strategy, but at the very least it shows he has balls.

And Corbyn is in a right pickle - has been shouting for a GE for months now, he might now get a chance for one handed to him on a plate and yet he may not be able to get enough Labour MPs to back it (a fair few because they are in heavy Leave-supporting constituencies and face losing their seats to Brexiteers), eroding his authority in the party as they'll look very much like they are running scared.

Force Brexit to happen, eject dissident MPs from the party, force a GE or force Labour to shy away from the challenge, if he pulls it all off it is a political masterstroke.

Johnson is the rebel. It's just that his rebellion has partially succeeded. But only partially. If at the very least severely damaging your party counts as a masterstroke I think the dictionary needs rewriting.

kingstongraham

How many seats in London would the Tories keep if there were an election now?

TheBigBean

KingstonGraham wrote:

How many seats in London would the Tories keep if there were an election now?

They'd win the City. Always do. Even with Mark Fields. I'd imagine there are some others too.

TheBigBean

TailWindHome wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

And

Tom McTague
@TomMcTague
·
2m
Very interesting move. Nigel Dodds asks Boris Johnson to arrange talks between the DUP and Irish government. An important first step in what will have to be a heavily choreographed dance toward compromise, involving the UK taking a risk first—& Ireland following suit

He also said that he had been asking the Irish government for two years.

Aye.
He knows it's a UK EU matter.
He's not invited to the talks with Barnier and Weyand either.


A interesting question is 'In what capacity would the DUP be meeting the Irish government for talks?'

Also - if the backstop breachs the GFA on cross community grounds - how can he justify talks only involving 1 party from 1 side of the community?

GFA/BA is a ROI/UK/NI agreement. If UK/EU talks need to ensure compliance, then it would make sense for those parties to discuss. I doubt the DUP care much about the other aspects of the WA.

It would make sense for the Irish government to meet a cross section of NI for the reasons you mention. That would be easier if its assembly could be started.

Essentially anything would be better than the current situation were NI is only listened to due to the DUP's deal with the Conservatives.

BoJo just reminded parliament that the backstop is likely a breach of the GFA/BA.

darkhairedlord

So what ever happened to Nigel Lawson.
Did he get kicked out of France?

Pross

TheBigBean wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

How many seats in London would the Tories keep if there were an election now?

They'd win the City. Always do. Even with Mark Fields. I'd imagine there are some others too.

Presumably those on the eastern side of the city that they currently have too, my suspicion (based purely on prejudice) is that the Essex and Kent border areas are very pro Brexit so would happily vote to keep Boris at the helm.

Edit - assuming we're talking Greater London then most of their existing constituencies appear to have been in favour of Brexit and my prejudice appears to have been fair as the areas I was thinking of were some of the most pro Brexit of all.

kingstongraham

TheBigBean wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

How many seats in London would the Tories keep if there were an election now?

They'd win the City. Always do. Even with Mark Fields. I'd imagine there are some others too.

I'd forgotten how badly they did last time. They'd lose Putney, Richmond Park and Wimbledon probably, maybe Hendon and some other North London seats. There's some really close ones there. Keep Chelsea, City and the outer South East ones unless there's a Brexit party challenger to spice it up.

An election would be dangerous for either side. High stakes.

kingrollo

Kingstonian wrote:

In reality, Boris is openly challenging the rebel MPs in a way that every Conservative leader since Thatcher hasn't. They have all tried, and failed, to work with a consensus which mainly over Europe has caused so much angst within the party, and is in recent times threatening to tear it apart. Boris has seen Corbyn take the same approach, deselecting Labour MPs for not supporting his stance, so it makes sense he follows. If he succeeds, he may for the first time in the last 3 decades have a party of MPs with a relatively united view. Risky strategy, but at the very least it shows he has balls.

And Corbyn is in a right pickle - has been shouting for a GE for months now, he might now get a chance for one handed to him on a plate and yet he may not be able to get enough Labour MPs to back it (a fair few because they are in heavy Leave-supporting constituencies and face losing their seats to Brexiteers), eroding his authority in the party as they'll look very much like they are running scared.

Force Brexit to happen, eject dissident MPs from the party, force a GE or force Labour to shy away from the challenge, if he pulls it all off it is a political masterstroke.

High stakes.

We have already seen the plan B though - If Johnsons tory party effectively become UKIP - that leaves a lot of Tory mods with no home - except the route taken today by Philip Lee.

Its unlikley he will come out unscathed from all that lot - even if he does it will imo be very short lived.

Matthewfalle

TailWindHome wrote:

#sheerjoy

Pross

One thing that confused me over the last couple of days was the threat to stop rebels standing as Tory candidates in the next election. I assumed it was the local association who decides their candidate?

If not then we could potentially end up with a very right wing Government if there is another GE.

Stevo_666

TailWindHome wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

It's going to end up with Boris voting that he has no confidence in himself, and Corbyn voting to keep him there, isn't it?

That's is possible. Depends if Corbyn resists the temptation of a GE as he still seems to think he can win it.

Not sure which commentator said it:

Corbyn has a problem now, his entire Brexit policy was to force an election, if there is an election, what's his Brexit policy?

Olympic standard fence sitting doesn't really cut it as a policy, does it.

Stevo_666

Kingstonian wrote:

In reality, Boris is openly challenging the rebel MPs in a way that every Conservative leader since Thatcher hasn't. They have all tried, and failed, to work with a consensus which mainly over Europe has caused so much angst within the party, and is in recent times threatening to tear it apart. Boris has seen Corbyn take the same approach, deselecting Labour MPs for not supporting his stance, so it makes sense he follows. If he succeeds, he may for the first time in the last 3 decades have a party of MPs with a relatively united view. Risky strategy, but at the very least it shows he has balls.

And Corbyn is in a right pickle - has been shouting for a GE for months now, he might now get a chance for one handed to him on a plate and yet he may not be able to get enough Labour MPs to back it (a fair few because they are in heavy Leave-supporting constituencies and face losing their seats to Brexiteers), eroding his authority in the party as they'll look very much like they are running scared.

Force Brexit to happen, eject dissident MPs from the party, force a GE or force Labour to shy away from the challenge, if he pulls it all off it is a political masterstroke.

Careful now, suggesting that Boris might have a clever strategy or pull off something daring will have you burnt at the stake on this forum.

john80

cougie wrote:

john80 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So no alternatives on the backstop yet?

That is the UK’s real weakness in its bargaining position.

The EU's insistence that a backstop is required is the true masterstroke of the EU and the remainers. Britain has been stuck in a bind for three years trying to sort out a riddle where the EU is the judge and rule maker of the answer. The UK's position should have been quite simply we are not putting up a border but will insist that all goods and services crossing the border have the right paperwork. Failure on the part of businesses are prosecuted. With regards to people if you have a British or Irish passport in accordance with the GFA you are fine. If you are a EU migrant and have not completed the required paperwork for being in Norther Ireland then you are treated in the same way as any other undocumented migrant. You don't need a border for this just some sensible domestic laws on how to deal with breaches. #itsbeingmadedliberatelyhard

Have you been to Northern Ireland ?

It's not like there's one road into Ireland. There's over 300. Not to mention buildings that straddle the border.

#areyoubeingdeliberatelydense

All the more reason not to have physical checks and progress as proposed above. Having spent a bit of time in ireland i would regard this as pretty sensible. As a degree educated engineer i am smart enough not to rise to your intelligence slurs.

surrey_commuter

Kingstonian wrote:

In reality, Boris is openly challenging the rebel MPs in a way that every Conservative leader since Thatcher hasn't. They have all tried, and failed, to work with a consensus which mainly over Europe has caused so much angst within the party, and is in recent times threatening to tear it apart. Boris has seen Corbyn take the same approach, deselecting Labour MPs for not supporting his stance, so it makes sense he follows. If he succeeds, he may for the first time in the last 3 decades have a party of MPs with a relatively united view. Risky strategy, but at the very least it shows he has balls.

And Corbyn is in a right pickle - has been shouting for a GE for months now, he might now get a chance for one handed to him on a plate and yet he may not be able to get enough Labour MPs to back it (a fair few because they are in heavy Leave-supporting constituencies and face losing their seats to Brexiteers), eroding his authority in the party as they'll look very much like they are running scared.

Force Brexit to happen, eject dissident MPs from the party, force a GE or force Labour to shy away from the challenge, if he pulls it all off it is a political masterstroke.

genuinely not sure if you mean the ERG when you refer to rebel MPs. For me Boris has bent over and assumed the position for them. IMHO where he has fvcked up is by going tonto on the other side, it he had kept up a pretence of negotiating (Merkel's 30 days) I doubt they would have grown a pair before it was too late.

Maybe Cummins genius only works as an outsider employing guerilla tactics.

surrey_commuter

john80 wrote:

cougie wrote:

john80 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So no alternatives on the backstop yet?

That is the UK’s real weakness in its bargaining position.

The EU's insistence that a backstop is required is the true masterstroke of the EU and the remainers. Britain has been stuck in a bind for three years trying to sort out a riddle where the EU is the judge and rule maker of the answer. The UK's position should have been quite simply we are not putting up a border but will insist that all goods and services crossing the border have the right paperwork. Failure on the part of businesses are prosecuted. With regards to people if you have a British or Irish passport in accordance with the GFA you are fine. If you are a EU migrant and have not completed the required paperwork for being in Norther Ireland then you are treated in the same way as any other undocumented migrant. You don't need a border for this just some sensible domestic laws on how to deal with breaches. #itsbeingmadedliberatelyhard

Have you been to Northern Ireland ?

It's not like there's one road into Ireland. There's over 300. Not to mention buildings that straddle the border.

#areyoubeingdeliberatelydense

All the more reason not to have physical checks and progress as proposed above. Having spent a bit of time in ireland i would regard this as pretty sensible. As a degree educated engineer i am smart enough not to rise to your intelligence slurs.

How do you know who has a British/Irish passport unless you check them? Scrapping the FTA would be one of the few benefits of Brexit.

kingstongraham

Stevo 666 wrote:

Kingstonian wrote:

In reality, Boris is openly challenging the rebel MPs in a way that every Conservative leader since Thatcher hasn't. They have all tried, and failed, to work with a consensus which mainly over Europe has caused so much angst within the party, and is in recent times threatening to tear it apart. Boris has seen Corbyn take the same approach, deselecting Labour MPs for not supporting his stance, so it makes sense he follows. If he succeeds, he may for the first time in the last 3 decades have a party of MPs with a relatively united view. Risky strategy, but at the very least it shows he has balls.

And Corbyn is in a right pickle - has been shouting for a GE for months now, he might now get a chance for one handed to him on a plate and yet he may not be able to get enough Labour MPs to back it (a fair few because they are in heavy Leave-supporting constituencies and face losing their seats to Brexiteers), eroding his authority in the party as they'll look very much like they are running scared.

Force Brexit to happen, eject dissident MPs from the party, force a GE or force Labour to shy away from the challenge, if he pulls it all off it is a political masterstroke.

Careful now, suggesting that Boris might have a clever strategy or pull off something daring will have you burnt at the stake on this forum.

The reason that the right wing rebels were not confronted in this way when they caused problems was because Major didn't have the numbers and needed them, and Cameron didn't have the numbers and needed them. Johnson has decided he can jettison those, despite not having the numbers.

There's no denying it would be bold to eject longstanding MPs on the say so of the right wing who spent their entire careers rebelling against and being tolerated by the Conservative leadership. Whether it's a clever strategy would take longer to assess.

john80

Surrey Commuter wrote:

john80 wrote:

cougie wrote:

john80 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So no alternatives on the backstop yet?

That is the UK’s real weakness in its bargaining position.

The EU's insistence that a backstop is required is the true masterstroke of the EU and the remainers. Britain has been stuck in a bind for three years trying to sort out a riddle where the EU is the judge and rule maker of the answer. The UK's position should have been quite simply we are not putting up a border but will insist that all goods and services crossing the border have the right paperwork. Failure on the part of businesses are prosecuted. With regards to people if you have a British or Irish passport in accordance with the GFA you are fine. If you are a EU migrant and have not completed the required paperwork for being in Norther Ireland then you are treated in the same way as any other undocumented migrant. You don't need a border for this just some sensible domestic laws on how to deal with breaches. #itsbeingmadedliberatelyhard

Have you been to Northern Ireland ?

It's not like there's one road into Ireland. There's over 300. Not to mention buildings that straddle the border.

#areyoubeingdeliberatelydense

All the more reason not to have physical checks and progress as proposed above. Having spent a bit of time in ireland i would regard this as pretty sensible. As a degree educated engineer i am smart enough not to rise to your intelligence slurs.

How do you know who has a British/Irish passport unless you check them? Scrapping the FTA would be one of the few benefits of Brexit.

Try doing anything important in life without some identification. Sure you can live underground like a criminal but it will certainly add a bit of spice to the routine traffic stop on route to your job as an undocumented migrant. Having watched a person being taken into custody on a train from chicago to new york i woukd certainly want to get my paperwork in order and not live that. That intervention was no where near a border but i am sure some remainers will be along to claim it was a figment of my imagination.

bompington

john80 wrote:

Having watched a person being taken into custody on a train from chicago to new york i woukd certainly want to get my paperwork in order and not live that. That intervention was no where near a border but i am sure some remainers will be along to claim it was a figment of my imagination.

If you seriously think this sort of thing is going to happen anywhere within 50 miles of the Irish border then
a) you don't know very much about the Irish border and
b) your great - indeed certified - intelligence is letting you down

rick_chasey

john80 wrote:

cougie wrote:

john80 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So no alternatives on the backstop yet?

That is the UK’s real weakness in its bargaining position.

The EU's insistence that a backstop is required is the true masterstroke of the EU and the remainers. Britain has been stuck in a bind for three years trying to sort out a riddle where the EU is the judge and rule maker of the answer. The UK's position should have been quite simply we are not putting up a border but will insist that all goods and services crossing the border have the right paperwork. Failure on the part of businesses are prosecuted. With regards to people if you have a British or Irish passport in accordance with the GFA you are fine. If you are a EU migrant and have not completed the required paperwork for being in Norther Ireland then you are treated in the same way as any other undocumented migrant. You don't need a border for this just some sensible domestic laws on how to deal with breaches. #itsbeingmadedliberatelyhard

Have you been to Northern Ireland ?

It's not like there's one road into Ireland. There's over 300. Not to mention buildings that straddle the border.

#areyoubeingdeliberatelydense

All the more reason not to have physical checks and progress as proposed above. Having spent a bit of time in ireland i would regard this as pretty sensible. As a degree educated engineer i am smart enough not to rise to your intelligence slurs.

So you want regulatory divergence but no one on the border to check that the stuff going in marches the regs?

Do you too have shares in a smuggling business?

hopkinb

Watch it. He's got a degree. He's been to Ireland. He's got it all covered.

rjsterry

Someone has pointed out that Churchill, Johnson's hero, was also threatened with deselection by his party. And crossed the House to join the Liberals.

ballysmate

Stevo 666 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

It's going to end up with Boris voting that he has no confidence in himself, and Corbyn voting to keep him there, isn't it?

That's is possible. Depends if Corbyn resists the temptation of a GE as he still seems to think he can win it.

Not sure which commentator said it:

Corbyn has a problem now, his entire Brexit policy was to force an election, if there is an election, what's his Brexit policy?

Olympic standard fence sitting doesn't really cut it as a policy, does it.

As someone wrote elsewhere

"Its a coup!!!! Its a coup!!!!!"

Have a general election to stop the coup then.

"Er, no thanks, we're fine"

"Johnson has no mandate "

Have a general election to secure a mandate of your own then.

"Naah, we're good"


"You cannot have too much democracy"

Have a democratic general election.

"Its the wrong kind of democracy"

tailwindhome

Ballysmate wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

It's going to end up with Boris voting that he has no confidence in himself, and Corbyn voting to keep him there, isn't it?

That's is possible. Depends if Corbyn resists the temptation of a GE as he still seems to think he can win it.

Not sure which commentator said it:

Corbyn has a problem now, his entire Brexit policy was to force an election, if there is an election, what's his Brexit policy?

Olympic standard fence sitting doesn't really cut it as a policy, does it.

As someone wrote elsewhere

"Its a coup!!!! Its a coup!!!!!"

Have a general election to stop the coup then.

"Er, no thanks, we're fine"

"Johnson has no mandate "

Have a general election to secure a mandate of your own then.

"Naah, we're good"


"You cannot have too much democracy"

Have a democratic general election.

"Its the wrong kind of democracy"

The 'lines to take' find their audience.

rick_chasey

F@ck Mogg is just thick as sh!t isn’t he?

Is rather depressing the pound has an inverse relationship with how successful BoJo is.

surrey_commuter

Rick Chasey wrote:

F@ck Mogg is just thick as sh!t isn’t he?

Is rather depressing the pound has an inverse relationship with how successful BoJo is.

I think it was Matthew Parris who said he is a caricature of what a working class person thinks is posh.

rick_chasey

In case you still think the govt is serious about renegotiation (it’s not):

Sky News has learned the Brexit negotiating team under Boris Johnson has been reduced to less than a quarter of the size of the team under Theresa May