BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

tailwindhome

Tom Newton Dunn
@tnewtondunn
·
2h
Sir Nicholas Soames tells me he will vote against the Govt tonight, unless the PM (who he’s going to see now) can assure him a Brexit deal will be done. Boris therefore faces the uncomfortable prospect of deselecting Winston Churchill’s grandson.

rjsterry

TailWindHome wrote:

Tom Newton Dunn
@tnewtondunn
·
2h
Sir Nicholas Soames tells me he will vote against the Govt tonight, unless the PM (who he’s going to see now) can assure him a Brexit deal will be done. Boris therefore faces the uncomfortable prospect of deselecting Winston Churchill’s grandson.

In what way could Johnson possibly assure anyone of anything?

kingstongraham

https://www.ft.com/content/c95b92ea-cd9 ... ded7a7fe3f

We done the "watered down" version of yellowhammer not being released because it's still too toxic?

Pross

Much as I dislike the proroguing in these circumstances I'm struggling to see how it can be ruled as being illegal. It will be interesting to see the verdict but I haven't heard any MPs opposed to it suggest that it was actually contravening any parliamentary rules.

Stevo_666

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Interesting.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-49553654

Quote:
"EU officials in Brussels have just announced they're debating whether to classify a no-deal Brexit as a "major disaster", so that affected EU countries can legally request compensation funding from the bloc's Solidarity Fund, usually reserved for floods, fires and earthquakes."

So much for Brexit not having much effect on the EU...

think about what they may be trying to do

OK, I have. Now what?

your hatred of the EU blinds you to the clever stuff they do

Why don't you stop being shy and tell me what you think they are doing? To me it could be a few things.

PS: 'hatred' is a bit strong.

cycleclinic

All the legislation being put forward does is stop no deal on the 31st October. the PM could then say well we'll do it on the 1st November. The legisilation does not grant an extension. Therefore it does not stop no deal. It is pointless. A more careful read is required I think.

The Opposition should be putting a vote of no confidence in. all those for that should then agree JC or other MP (JC should not be so proud here) as PM based on a condidence and supply agreement that mandates him to get an extension, get all brexit legistation through parliment and set an election date. I.e no corbynomics. That is within the current rules of parliment. the lection is held and parties have to state clearly what they are for. Lib Dems we know, Greens we know, Conservative we know, brexit party we know, SNP we know, DUP we know, Labour we dont. There should be a majority for leave or remain in that and remain means revoke article 50. It back to being binary again as it always was. If that does not pass then it because the opposition to no deal is too fractured to be effective and they deserve then to fail.

What being done today is pointless and is upending the way parliemnt work with unforseen consequences which may not be benign.

kingrollo

Its all a load of fart !

rjsterry

thecycleclinic wrote:

All the legislation being put forward does is stop no deal on the 31st October. the PM could then say well we'll do it on the 1st November. The legisilation does not grant an extension. Therefore it does not stop no deal. It is pointless. A more careful read is required I think.

The Opposition should be putting a vote of no confidence in. all those for that should then agree JC or other MP (JC should not be so proud here) as PM based on a condidence and supply agreement that mandates him to get an extension, get all brexit legistation through parliment and set an election date. I.e no corbynomics. That is within the current rules of parliment. the lection is held and parties have to state clearly what they are for. Lib Dems we know, Greens we know, Conservative we know, brexit party we know, SNP we know, DUP we know, Labour we dont. There should be a majority for leave or remain in that and remain means revoke article 50. It back to being binary again as it always was. If that does not pass then it because the opposition to no deal is too fractured to be effective and they deserve then to fail.

What being done today is pointless and is upending the way parliemnt work with unforseen consequences which may not be benign.

I think they might have thought it through a little more than you suggest.

Stevo_666

Here are some possible scenarios. As usual, picking the one that will happen is easier said than done:

- Government defeats Parliamentary attempts to prevent 'no deal'. Tweaked deal agreed and rushed through in late October, possibly with a short extension to pass the necessary legislation (to 31 December 2019 perhaps).

- Opposition MPs pass legislation forcing the government to seek an extension with the EU (perhaps to June 2020). The government argues Parliament is thwarting the fulfilment of the EU referendum, and responds by challenging the opposition to vote for an early election by two thirds majority.

- Pre-Brexit election (17/24 October) following a successful vote of no confidence or two thirds vote (3-6 September):
a. Won by Conservatives on a 'no deal' ticket giving Johnson a mandate to renegotiate or leave with no new agreement on 31 October, or;
b. Won by a coalition of Labour and the Lib Dems on a platform of second referendum. New PM immediately seeks extension (perhaps to June 2020).

- Johnson fails to secure a new deal, or fails to secure Parliamentary approval for a new deal, while opposition MPs run out of time to stop 'no deal'. The UK leaves without a deal on 31 October.

- Johnson calls an election for 31 October or later, which allows Parliament to be shut down in the run-up to the polls, and the UK to leave with no deal by default on 31 October.

- Either this week or immediately after Parliament's return on 14 October, MPs defeat the government in a vote of no confidence and a new unity government is formed, which seeks an immediate extension (and an election).

rolf_f

Stevo 666 wrote:

- Pre-Brexit election (17/24 October) following a successful vote of no confidence or two thirds vote (3-6 September):
a. Won by Conservatives on a 'no deal' ticket giving Johnson a mandate to renegotiate or leave with no new agreement on 31 October, or;
b. Won by a coalition of Labour and the Lib Dems on a platform of second referendum. New PM immediately seeks extension (perhaps to June 2020).

Realistically, your Conservative win is also going to be a minority Govt. Again. So in that respect Bojo would have a mandate for nothing. It's probably the most likely election based outcome too..........

rjsterry

Johnson's meeting with the rebels failed to persuade them. I would suggest that makes government defeat on the Benn Bill more likely. Labour very cagey about going for a GE, but who knows.

Either way, I think Johnson has burnt too many bridges to make a go of it.

He's made the same mistake as May in not trying to get cross party support.

darkhairedlord

Stevo 666 wrote:

Here are some possible scenarios. As usual, picking the one that will happen is easier said than done:

- Government defeats Parliamentary attempts to prevent 'no deal'. Tweaked deal agreed and rushed through in late October, possibly with a short extension to pass the necessary legislation (to 31 December 2019 perhaps).

- Opposition MPs pass legislation forcing the government to seek an extension with the EU (perhaps to June 2020). The government argues Parliament is thwarting the fulfilment of the EU referendum, and responds by challenging the opposition to vote for an early election by two thirds majority.

- Pre-Brexit election (17/24 October) following a successful vote of no confidence or two thirds vote (3-6 September):
a. Won by Conservatives on a 'no deal' ticket giving Johnson a mandate to renegotiate or leave with no new agreement on 31 October, or;
b. Won by a coalition of Labour and the Lib Dems on a platform of second referendum. New PM immediately seeks extension (perhaps to June 2020).

- Johnson fails to secure a new deal, or fails to secure Parliamentary approval for a new deal, while opposition MPs run out of time to stop 'no deal'. The UK leaves without a deal on 31 October.

- Johnson calls an election for 31 October or later, which allows Parliament to be shut down in the run-up to the polls, and the UK to leave with no deal by default on 31 October.

- Either this week or immediately after Parliament's return on 14 October, MPs defeat the government in a vote of no confidence and a new unity government is formed, which seeks an immediate extension (and an election).

Johnson isn't negotiating. He wants to be seen negetiating by those who do want a deal, but seen to be "not-negotiating" by thosae that don't want a deal. His only way out is to trick someone else to take the blame for trying to force him into a deal, so if we end up with a deal he can blame someone else. Equally, he wants trick others into forcing him to leave with no-deal, so he can blame someone else for that.
During his leadership election he played both sides and is now playing deal against no-deal against the EU. Throw in revokers and it is no wonder no one knows wtf is going on.
I honestly don't believe Johnson has any plan or preffered outcome other than avoiding blame to three different audiences.
And Cummings is a russian stooge doing Putins work now Aaron Banks has passed his sell by date, which doesn't help!

kingstongraham

So Johnson said "there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay."

What happens if the rebel bill goes through and is law mandating the PM to go and ask for a delay, and also he is not granted a general election under the FTPA? Does he resign?

darkhairedlord

KingstonGraham wrote:

So Johnson said "there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay."

What happens if the rebel bill goes through and is law mandating the PM to go and ask for a delay, and also he is not granted a general election under the FTPA? Does he resign?

He might well want an extension so he'll go and do it and blame others for tying his hands.
He's a bullingdon bully pretending to want a fight and hoping his mates will hold hold him back while imploring them to let him go.

Pross

I've actually reached the point where I just want it over no matter which way it goes as I'm starting to wonder if all the uncertainty and delay is creating a bigger issue for the economy not to mention the complete lack of any other business getting done by parliament. I'd rather we end up remaining or, at worst, leaving with a deal but if it takes no deal to just get things moving then so be it.

Stevo_666

KingstonGraham wrote:

So Johnson said "there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay."

What happens if the rebel bill goes through and is law mandating the PM to go and ask for a delay, and also he is not granted a general election under the FTPA? Does he resign?

He could say 'I am asking on behalf of Parliament'?

bompington

Pross wrote:

I've actually reached the point where I just want it over no matter which way it goes as I'm starting to wonder if all the uncertainty and delay is creating a bigger issue for the economy not to mention the complete lack of any other business getting done by parliament. I'd rather we end up remaining or, at worst, leaving with a deal but if it takes no deal to just get things moving then so be it.

What on earth makes you think that leaving will end anything? It will be the beginning of longer, harder, worse stuff. These will be the good old days of stability and hope.

Stevo_666

darkhairedlord wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Here are some possible scenarios. As usual, picking the one that will happen is easier said than done:

- Government defeats Parliamentary attempts to prevent 'no deal'. Tweaked deal agreed and rushed through in late October, possibly with a short extension to pass the necessary legislation (to 31 December 2019 perhaps).

- Opposition MPs pass legislation forcing the government to seek an extension with the EU (perhaps to June 2020). The government argues Parliament is thwarting the fulfilment of the EU referendum, and responds by challenging the opposition to vote for an early election by two thirds majority.

- Pre-Brexit election (17/24 October) following a successful vote of no confidence or two thirds vote (3-6 September):
a. Won by Conservatives on a 'no deal' ticket giving Johnson a mandate to renegotiate or leave with no new agreement on 31 October, or;
b. Won by a coalition of Labour and the Lib Dems on a platform of second referendum. New PM immediately seeks extension (perhaps to June 2020).

- Johnson fails to secure a new deal, or fails to secure Parliamentary approval for a new deal, while opposition MPs run out of time to stop 'no deal'. The UK leaves without a deal on 31 October.

- Johnson calls an election for 31 October or later, which allows Parliament to be shut down in the run-up to the polls, and the UK to leave with no deal by default on 31 October.

- Either this week or immediately after Parliament's return on 14 October, MPs defeat the government in a vote of no confidence and a new unity government is formed, which seeks an immediate extension (and an election).

Johnson isn't negotiating. He wants to be seen negetiating by those who do want a deal, but seen to be "not-negotiating" by thosae that don't want a deal. His only way out is to trick someone else to take the blame for trying to force him into a deal, so if we end up with a deal he can blame someone else. Equally, he wants trick others into forcing him to leave with no-deal, so he can blame someone else for that.
During his leadership election he played both sides and is now playing deal against no-deal against the EU. Throw in revokers and it is no wonder no one knows wtf is going on.
I honestly don't believe Johnson has any plan or preffered outcome other than avoiding blame to three different audiences.
And Cummings is a russian stooge doing Putins work now Aaron Banks has passed his sell by date, which doesn't help!

Not sure which part of my post you're replying to?

Stevo_666

Rolf F wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

- Pre-Brexit election (17/24 October) following a successful vote of no confidence or two thirds vote (3-6 September):
a. Won by Conservatives on a 'no deal' ticket giving Johnson a mandate to renegotiate or leave with no new agreement on 31 October, or;
b. Won by a coalition of Labour and the Lib Dems on a platform of second referendum. New PM immediately seeks extension (perhaps to June 2020).

Realistically, your Conservative win is also going to be a minority Govt. Again. So in that respect Bojo would have a mandate for nothing. It's probably the most likely election based outcome too..........

Not necessarily, if the anti no deal vote is split. Some forecasts show an overall tory majority for what they are worth.

kingstongraham

Stevo 666 wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

So Johnson said "there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay."

What happens if the rebel bill goes through and is law mandating the PM to go and ask for a delay, and also he is not granted a general election under the FTPA? Does he resign?

He could say 'I am asking on behalf of Parliament'?

The big boys made him do it.

darkhairedlord

Stevo 666 wrote:

darkhairedlord wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Here are some possible scenarios. As usual, picking the one that will happen is easier said than done:

- Government defeats Parliamentary attempts to prevent 'no deal'. Tweaked deal agreed and rushed through in late October, possibly with a short extension to pass the necessary legislation (to 31 December 2019 perhaps).

- Opposition MPs pass legislation forcing the government to seek an extension with the EU (perhaps to June 2020). The government argues Parliament is thwarting the fulfilment of the EU referendum, and responds by challenging the opposition to vote for an early election by two thirds majority.

- Pre-Brexit election (17/24 October) following a successful vote of no confidence or two thirds vote (3-6 September):
a. Won by Conservatives on a 'no deal' ticket giving Johnson a mandate to renegotiate or leave with no new agreement on 31 October, or;
b. Won by a coalition of Labour and the Lib Dems on a platform of second referendum. New PM immediately seeks extension (perhaps to June 2020).

- Johnson fails to secure a new deal, or fails to secure Parliamentary approval for a new deal, while opposition MPs run out of time to stop 'no deal'. The UK leaves without a deal on 31 October.

- Johnson calls an election for 31 October or later, which allows Parliament to be shut down in the run-up to the polls, and the UK to leave with no deal by default on 31 October.

- Either this week or immediately after Parliament's return on 14 October, MPs defeat the government in a vote of no confidence and a new unity government is formed, which seeks an immediate extension (and an election).

Johnson isn't negotiating. He wants to be seen negetiating by those who do want a deal, but seen to be "not-negotiating" by thosae that don't want a deal. His only way out is to trick someone else to take the blame for trying to force him into a deal, so if we end up with a deal he can blame someone else. Equally, he wants trick others into forcing him to leave with no-deal, so he can blame someone else for that.
During his leadership election he played both sides and is now playing deal against no-deal against the EU. Throw in revokers and it is no wonder no one knows wtf is going on.
I honestly don't believe Johnson has any plan or preffered outcome other than avoiding blame to three different audiences.
And Cummings is a russian stooge doing Putins work now Aaron Banks has passed his sell by date, which doesn't help!

Not sure which part of my post you're replying to?

All of it and none of it. That's the point, surely.
It's a lot of arm waving and fist shaking in all directions hoping someone else carries the can.

Pross

bompington wrote:

Pross wrote:

I've actually reached the point where I just want it over no matter which way it goes as I'm starting to wonder if all the uncertainty and delay is creating a bigger issue for the economy not to mention the complete lack of any other business getting done by parliament. I'd rather we end up remaining or, at worst, leaving with a deal but if it takes no deal to just get things moving then so be it.

What on earth makes you think that leaving will end anything? It will be the beginning of longer, harder, worse stuff. These will be the good old days of stability and hope.

It would at least end all the discussions on what to do. I think it's the only way to end the impasse as I genuinely can't see any deal getting agreed. It feels like nothing else is being done regarding the running of the country at the moment although I suppose the real danger is stuff is getting done but buried under the smokescreen of Brexit that comes back to haunt us down the line.

coopster_the_1st

KingstonGraham wrote:

So Johnson said "there are no circumstances in which I will ask Brussels to delay."

What happens if the rebel bill goes through and is law mandating the PM to go and ask for a delay, and also he is not granted a general election under the FTPA? Does he resign?

He does not ask for the delay, it is in the PM's gift, so waits for the VONC...

Or

He prorogues parliament in the immediate aftermath of not being granted a GE by parliament until after 31st Oct.


I'm sure these and other scenarios have already been war gamed by his team.

Remoaners are now playing dirty so I see no reason why he does not sink to their level and beat them a their own game

surrey_commuter

Pross wrote:

bompington wrote:

Pross wrote:

I've actually reached the point where I just want it over no matter which way it goes as I'm starting to wonder if all the uncertainty and delay is creating a bigger issue for the economy not to mention the complete lack of any other business getting done by parliament. I'd rather we end up remaining or, at worst, leaving with a deal but if it takes no deal to just get things moving then so be it.

What on earth makes you think that leaving will end anything? It will be the beginning of longer, harder, worse stuff. These will be the good old days of stability and hope.

It would at least end all the discussions on what to do. I think it's the only way to end the impasse as I genuinely can't see any deal getting agreed. It feels like nothing else is being done regarding the running of the country at the moment although I suppose the real danger is stuff is getting done but buried under the smokescreen of Brexit that comes back to haunt us down the line.

what Bomp is referring to is this is just our exit agreement upon which A50 grants us certain rights. If we leave in a huff on 31st Oct then we will still have to negotiate future relationships (not just trade) with the EU and will be doing so with a lot of bad feeling and no rights. The current sh1t show is just the foothills of what is to come.

Also bear in mind that the barstewards are trying to grind you down. Throwing yourself over the cliff to end the fear of falling off it is lunacy.

bompington

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Remoaners are now playing dirty so I see no reason why he does not sink to their level and beat them a their own game

Please explain what "Remoaners"* are doing that is actually "dirty", i.e. illegal or unconstitutional?


*it hurts to use, even in scare-quotes, this most childish of insults - one whose use is a 100% guaranteed indication that its user does not have an actual argument and should not have been allowed out of the primary school without an adult.

rjsterry

Coopster the 1st wrote:

now playing dirty

It's politics. Everyone is playing dirty and always has done.

john80

rjsterry wrote:

Johnson's meeting with the rebels failed to persuade them. I would suggest that makes government defeat on the Benn Bill more likely. Labour very cagey about going for a GE, but who knows.

Either way, I think Johnson has burnt too many bridges to make a go of it.

He's made the same mistake as May in not trying to get cross party support.

There is not outcome that can get a majority in the house of commons. Remain, the softest of brexits where we are tied into an eternity of rule taking with no say or no deal. May's deal was only a tiny step up from the middle option in terms of hardness. The idea that cross party support is possible is laughable for the simple reasons below.

- Lib, Dems, Greens and SNP and a few others want to remain and would vote for nothing else.
- Labour have spent three years voting against whatever was proposed for the sole aim of trying to get whatever Brexit is done before a general election and then hoping to gain power after this event. They don't want to be associated with anything sensible and lets face if they were they would have allowed their MP's a free vote on Mays deal.
- The conservatives would rather leave without a deal but it has dragged on so long that no deal is not actually that electorally damaging to them anymore as the above have also covered themselves in poo over the last three years.

There is not enough remainers to vote in a lib dem government so remain is not an option post election if not decided prior. Labour will pursue another referendum election manifesto which will lose them as many votes as it will gain them within their voter base and waste some more of the electorates time. They would end up with a coalition government of which I am not sure the first group of remainers would want to join hence no majority and no victory. The tories may well get a majority and be able to close the deal. All ifs and maybe's but I actually think Boris and his advisers have thought the process pretty well through to their advantage given the hand they were dealt.

kingrollo

Call a GE - the Tories should win pretty easily, then they can do whatever they want (god help us !)

Pross

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Pross wrote:

bompington wrote:

Pross wrote:

I've actually reached the point where I just want it over no matter which way it goes as I'm starting to wonder if all the uncertainty and delay is creating a bigger issue for the economy not to mention the complete lack of any other business getting done by parliament. I'd rather we end up remaining or, at worst, leaving with a deal but if it takes no deal to just get things moving then so be it.

What on earth makes you think that leaving will end anything? It will be the beginning of longer, harder, worse stuff. These will be the good old days of stability and hope.

It would at least end all the discussions on what to do. I think it's the only way to end the impasse as I genuinely can't see any deal getting agreed. It feels like nothing else is being done regarding the running of the country at the moment although I suppose the real danger is stuff is getting done but buried under the smokescreen of Brexit that comes back to haunt us down the line.

what Bomp is referring to is this is just our exit agreement upon which A50 grants us certain rights. If we leave in a huff on 31st Oct then we will still have to negotiate future relationships (not just trade) with the EU and will be doing so with a lot of bad feeling and no rights. The current sh1t show is just the foothills of what is to come.

Also bear in mind that the barstewards are trying to grind you down. Throwing yourself over the cliff to end the fear of falling off it is lunacy.

I appreciate that, just wondering at what point you conclude that arguing about it continuously for years on end is doing just as much damage. On the second paragraph at least they've managed to succeed in one of their aims then.

Can anyone think of a previous political mess as big as this for which we were solely responsible? Some glib election promise that it wasn't expected would come to anything results in virtually breaking the political system.

Stevo_666

darkhairedlord wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

darkhairedlord wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Here are some possible scenarios. As usual, picking the one that will happen is easier said than done:

- Government defeats Parliamentary attempts to prevent 'no deal'. Tweaked deal agreed and rushed through in late October, possibly with a short extension to pass the necessary legislation (to 31 December 2019 perhaps).

- Opposition MPs pass legislation forcing the government to seek an extension with the EU (perhaps to June 2020). The government argues Parliament is thwarting the fulfilment of the EU referendum, and responds by challenging the opposition to vote for an early election by two thirds majority.

- Pre-Brexit election (17/24 October) following a successful vote of no confidence or two thirds vote (3-6 September):
a. Won by Conservatives on a 'no deal' ticket giving Johnson a mandate to renegotiate or leave with no new agreement on 31 October, or;
b. Won by a coalition of Labour and the Lib Dems on a platform of second referendum. New PM immediately seeks extension (perhaps to June 2020).

- Johnson fails to secure a new deal, or fails to secure Parliamentary approval for a new deal, while opposition MPs run out of time to stop 'no deal'. The UK leaves without a deal on 31 October.

- Johnson calls an election for 31 October or later, which allows Parliament to be shut down in the run-up to the polls, and the UK to leave with no deal by default on 31 October.

- Either this week or immediately after Parliament's return on 14 October, MPs defeat the government in a vote of no confidence and a new unity government is formed, which seeks an immediate extension (and an election).

Johnson isn't negotiating. He wants to be seen negetiating by those who do want a deal, but seen to be "not-negotiating" by thosae that don't want a deal. His only way out is to trick someone else to take the blame for trying to force him into a deal, so if we end up with a deal he can blame someone else. Equally, he wants trick others into forcing him to leave with no-deal, so he can blame someone else for that.
During his leadership election he played both sides and is now playing deal against no-deal against the EU. Throw in revokers and it is no wonder no one knows wtf is going on.
I honestly don't believe Johnson has any plan or preffered outcome other than avoiding blame to three different audiences.
And Cummings is a russian stooge doing Putins work now Aaron Banks has passed his sell by date, which doesn't help!

Not sure which part of my post you're replying to?

All of it and none of it. That's the point, surely.
It's a lot of arm waving and fist shaking in all directions hoping someone else carries the can.

OK, although that wasn't really my point. Those possibilities were a lift from a bank report on Brexit and was simply giving possible future pathways, rather than some comment on politicians and their tactics.